Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Sunday - July 13, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (4/7/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/7/8)-(4/7/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/7/8)-(4/7/8)-(4/7/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/7/8)-(3/2/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/7/8)-(3/2/4)-(1/5) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
ELP-2   WIN (3/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/2/4)-(3/2/6/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (3/2/4)-(3/2/6/4)-(3/2/6/4) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (3/2/4)-(1/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (3/2/4)-(1/5)-(5/1/3/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
ELP-3   WIN (1/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/5)-(1/4/5) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (1/5)-(1/4/5)-(1/4/5) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (1/5)-(5/1/3/7) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (1/5)-(5/1/3/7)-(8/3/5/10) 32 $0.50 $16.00 
ELP-4   WIN (5/1/3/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/1/3/7)-(5/1/3/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/1/3/7)-(5/1/3/7)-(5/1/3/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/1/3/7)-(8/3/5/10) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (5/1/3/7)-(8/3/5/10)-(7/8/1/5) 64 $0.50 $32.00 
ELP-5   WIN (8/3/5/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/3/5/10)-(8/3/5/6/10) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (8/3/5/10)-(8/3/5/6/10)-(8/3/5/6/10) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (8/3/5/10)-(7/8/1/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (8/3/5/10)-(7/8/1/5)-(3/8/7) 48 $0.50 $144 
ELP-6   WIN (7/8/1/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/8/1/5)-(7/8/6/1/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (7/8/1/5)-(7/8/6/1/5)-(7/8/6/1/5) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (7/8/1/5)-(3/8/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/8/1/5)-(3/8/7)-(6/2/1) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
ELP-7   WIN (3/8/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/8/7)-(3/6/8/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (3/8/7)-(3/6/8/7)-(3/6/8/7) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (3/8/7)-(6/2/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/8/7)-(6/2/1)-(5/1/7/3/10) 45 $0.50 $22.50 
ELP-8   WIN (6/2/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/2/1)-(6/2/7/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (6/2/1)-(6/2/7/1)-(6/2/7/1) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (6/2/1)-(5/1/7/3/10) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
ELP-9   WIN (5/1/7/3/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/1/7/3/10)-(5/1/7/3/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/1/7/3/10)-(5/1/7/3/10)-(5/1/7/3/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   07/13/2025 3630ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($23.75K) 3UP ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  CAUSE IMA BOSS Jun23 May27 Apr30     (pittman b)CAMACHO JR 119 20.00    
SCR  GOLDEN GOAL Sep26         (sims p)MACHADO LUAN 119 3.00    
3  PULASKI Apr18 Mar28       (moquett ronal)CANNON DECLAN 119 6.00    
4  PERSONAL JET May26 May16 Apr19 Mar29 Feb08 (newton troy)MONCADA IRVING 114 2.50 50% 1.00    
5  CHASIN' CHAFFIN Feb15 Feb02 Jan17 Dec07 Nov08 (cunningha)BEALMEAR C 119 5.00    
6  BOTE Jul03 Jun04 May17 Apr13 Mar23 (deville j)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 10.00    
7  SILENT BREEZE Jun13 May17 Apr30 Mar07 Feb14 (hancock )RODRIGUEZ A 119 3.50 15% 5.80    
8  ATOMIC SNOW Jun26 May25       (pittman bonn)BARBOSA CARLOS 119 12.00 11% 8.40    
 
ELP-2   07/13/2025 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COLONEL CALIENTE Jun07 May16 Feb12 Dec28 Nov27 (maker michael)MORALES EDGAR 118 5.00    
  (by ARMY MULE out of ONE HOT SENORITA by SHARP HUMOR)
2  START TO WIN Aug24         (devaux cher)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 3.00 18% 4.50    
  (by UPSTART out of HEAVEN KNOWS WHAT by HOLY BULL)
3  DUKE OF DUVAL May24 Oct17 Sep15 Aug24 Jul07 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 124 2.00 42% 1.40    
  (by ARROGATE out of CHAOTIC CAT by TALE OF THE CAT)
4  MONEY MAN May24 Mar22 Feb22 Oct25   (heath g)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by DIALED IN out of ORO BLANCO by HOLD FOR GOLD)
5  FLY GUY MICK Jun21 Jun01       (romans dale)LANERIE J 118 4.50    
  (by MCKINZIE out of RISE ABOVE by VIOLENCE)
6  MISTER BANDERAS Jun12 May10 Apr10 Nov17 Oct26 (medina ro)TORRES A 124 6.00 ★    
  (by STAR GUITAR out of C R VEXORA by GRAEME HALL)
7  WARTANK Jun15 May24       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00    
  (by TAPIT out of UNENCHANTEDEVENING by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
SCR  MAJOR LEAGUE Jun28 Jun05       (johnston la)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 20.00    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of ALPHA KITTEN by TALE OF THE CAT)
 
ELP-3   07/13/2025 5610ft TURF RC3 GOOD Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($106K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ST. ARMANDS KEY Jun20 May10 Mar22 Feb15 May11 (maker michael)MORALES EDGAR 122 2.00 60% 0.70    
2  NOISES OFF Dec14 Oct05 Sep01 Jul06 May31 (lobo paul)TORRES A 122 4.50    
SCR  TALL BOY Jun26 Apr29 Apr08 May02 Apr12 (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 122 3.50    
4  TAPIT SHOES Jun14 May17 Apr29 Mar22 Feb15 (moger jr)GUTIERREZ MARIO 122 4.00 ★    
5  DEGREE OF RISK May17 Apr19 Feb06 Dec28 Nov24 (ramsey nolan)MACHADO LUAN 122 5.00 5% 19.00    
6  AH JEEZ Nov17 Oct19 Aug17 Jul21 May27 (o'neill doug)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 6.00    
 
ELP-4   07/13/2025 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($31.25K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COACH CAMPBELL Jun14 May28 May17 Apr16 Mar28 (miller kenny)MCKEE J 123 4.00 20% 4.00    
2  ICEATUDE Apr05 Mar14 Feb08 Feb01 Jan10 (hartman ch)HERNANDEZ J 123 2.50    
3  CRITICAL THREAT Jun15 May10 Apr12 Jan30 Jan05 (esquivel jesus)BEJARANO R 123 10.00 17% 4.90    
4  SITTIN ON GO Jun20 May29 May03 Apr06 Mar23 (jacobson )CAMACHO JR 123 6.00    
5  SENSICAL Jun14 May18 Apr28 Mar22 Feb12 (meah m)MORALES EDGAR 123 3.50 37% 1.70    
SCR  KHOZY MY BOY Jun17 Jun05 May10 Apr24 Mar15 (santamaria car)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 15.00    
7  SOUTHERN SUNSET Jun15 May16 Apr26 Apr11 Mar22 (moquett r)BEALMEAR C 123 8.00 5% 19.00    
8  MR. PETERKIN Jun19 Feb13 Jan16 Nov20 Oct30 (norris mike)CANNON DECLAN 123 20.00    
9  W W CRAZY Jun05 May16 Apr24 Feb24 Jan24 (calhoun william)LANERIE J 123 8.00    
 
ELP-5   07/13/2025 3630ft TURF RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 2 ALL PT- 2:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  EASY MUNNINGS         (sharp joe)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 15.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of AT EASE by CYCLOTRON)
2  KHETAM         (mckeever andrew)GRAHAM J 119 25.00    
  (by ESSENTIAL QUALITY out of ELSAABIQAAT by INVINCIBLE SPIRIT (IRE))
3  GELATO         (casse mar)TORRES A 119 4.50 30% 2.30    
  (by DANCE BRIGHTLY out of LAYREEBELLE by TALE OF THE CAT)
SCR  TWIRLING RIDGE Apr13         (hancock joh)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 15.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of MACKENZIE CAPRI by ESKENDEREYA)
5  BARSTOOL Jun19 Apr24 Apr07     (vasque)GUTIERREZ RAMOS 109 15.00 8% 11.30    
  (by CARAVAGGIO out of HOLLYWOOD HOOPLA by WILL TAKE CHARGE)
6  WAY BEYOND         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 6.00 ★    
  (by ORDWAY (BRZ) out of BEYOND A DOUBT by CONQUISTADOR CIELO)
7  ARGOS         (mott riley)TORRES A 119 25.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of ATHENIAN by ACCLAMATION)
8  BIGGIEBIGGIEBIGGIE         (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 119 4.00 39% 1.60    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of WILD ABOUT STAR by STAR GUITAR)
9  ZEUS'S ECHO Jun20         (davis christop)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00    
  (by BY MY STANDARDS out of REVEILLE'S ECHO by WAR FRONT)
10  EQUATOR         (harty eo)RODRIGUEZ A 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by BODEMEISTER out of SURGING STORM by STORM CREEK)
SCR  FUZZY STARE         (ward wesley )DESORMEAUX J 119 2.50    
  (by HOOTENANNY out of BISTRO MONCUR by LONHRO (AUS))
12  POINT BARROW         (murphy co)LEPAROUX R 119 15.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of OUTRAGEOUS MISS by BERNARDINI)
 
ELP-6   07/13/2025 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($23.75K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BIGWRIGDUDE Jun08 Apr27 Apr04 Feb08   (burchell greg)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
2  STRATEGIST Jun27 Jun14 May15 Apr26 Dec01 (romero gregor)MORALES EDGAR 118 3.50    
3  SILVER SCREEN Jun13 May26       (deville carl)BARBOSA CARLOS 118 20.00    
4  GOOD NEWS ROCKET Jun15 Apr13 Apr04 Mar07 Jan25 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 124 6.00    
5  BLAKELY'S BOY Mar27 Mar07 Feb21 Feb07 Jan25 (nesbit)ORTEGA JOSEPH 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
6  ROCKET NIGHT May15 Apr04 Mar02 Jan23 Dec22 (newton troy)TORRES A 124 6.00 ★    
7  BAOBAB May15 Apr06 Feb23 Dec07   (diodoro r)TORRES A 118 2.50 51% 1.00    
8  HALFWAY TEMPTED May22 May03 Mar16 Jan31 Nov22 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 124 5.00 23% 3.30    
9  STRAIGHTAWAY Jun15 Jun01 Apr30     (baker james)MONCADA IRVING 113 8.00    
 
ELP-7   07/13/2025 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  FRANKIE'S BOY Jun12         (miller jero)GUTIERREZ MARIO 124 15.00    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of DONAMOUR by LANGFUHR)
2  MR BOBO         (o'dwyer jeremia)LANERIE J 124 20.00    
  (by DEMARCHELIER out of LADY JUNE BUG by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
3  PARIS SURPRISE May31 Apr19 Dec29 Nov30 Oct24 (ramsey nolan)TORRES A 124 2.00 65% 0.50    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of WARM WATER by ENGLISH CHANNEL)
4  RESTLESS RENEGADE Feb15 Dec29 Nov23 Oct27   (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of RESTLESS RIDER by DISTORTED HUMOR)
5  WESTERN RUN (IRE) May26 Apr19 Mar07 Jan08 Oct18 (sharp joe)CONCEPCION AXEL 124 4.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of RUN OF THE RIVER by TAPIT)
6  TIMAYYYY Jun15 Mar30 Feb22     (walsh brendan)MORALES EDGAR 118 2.50 ★    
  (by WAR FRONT out of BLACK DYNAMITE by MORE THAN READY)
7  FREE SPIN May08 Apr17       (mott rile)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of KATHERINE'SKADENCE by MR. GREELEY)
8  SPORTS HERO Jun22 May24 Apr19     (sharp joe)LEPAROUX R 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of OPEN HOUSE by DEPUTY MINISTER)
 
ELP-8   07/13/2025 4620ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($102K) 3 F PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MISS ELLE Jun04 Apr26 Mar30 Jul15 Jun07 (medina robert)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
2  PRETTY SURE Sep14 Aug25       (walsh bren)HERNANDEZ J 120 3.00 31% 2.20    
3  DARE TO FLY May31 Apr19 Feb24 Jan18 Dec01 (damato phili)TORRES A 120 5.00    
SCR  HEARTBEAT Jun06 May02       (lynch brian )GEROUX FLORENT 122 8.00    
SCR  SCYTHIA Jun26 Jun04 May16 Apr25   (king l)MORALES EDGAR 120 10.00    
6  FOIE GRAS Jun22 May02 Apr07 Jan31 Dec01 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 120 2.50 43% 1.30    
7  REPUTATION May24 Apr13 Dec22 Nov15   (delgado gustav)MACHADO LUAN 120 4.00 ★    
8  ST BERNADETTE Jun24 Apr23 Mar12 Feb13 Jan23 (holden dar)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 20.00    
 
ELP-9   07/13/2025 3630ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($102K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FLOODLITES Dec18 Nov01 Oct06 Aug31 Jul13 (ward wes)RODRIGUEZ A 118 3.00 21% 3.80    
2  CHRYSO ALOGO Jul05 May31 May10 Apr09 Jan17 (foster eric)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 15.00    
3  JUSTIFREAK Jun08 Apr16 Oct30 Sep21 Aug04 (kenneally eddi)MACHADO LUAN 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  EL DANDI May19 Apr08 Feb08 Jan18 Dec18 (acevedo isra)CALLEJA ANDRES 118 25.00    
5  RISK IT Jun25 Apr29 Apr08 Mar04 Jan23 (jacobson david)LANERIE J 122 5.00 33% 2.00    
6  GREATDAYFORHOCKEY Jun22 May09 Nov24 Oct16 Sep12 (salas marcelin)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 25.00    
7  SEND CASH Jun11 Apr17 Mar09 Jun27 May12 (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 122 4.50 18% 4.50    
8  UNWORKABLE Jun21 Jun04 May24 Apr09 Mar13 (acevedo i)CORREA L 124 12.00    
9  INNOVATOR Jun11 May03 Mar22 Feb23 Jan18 (nicholl se)TORRES A 118 5.00    
10  LITIGATION May30 Mar29 Mar01     (lynch brian)GUTIERREZ MARIO 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
11  VESTURE Oct25 Sep01 Jul20 Jun08 Apr24 (calhoun willi)MORALES EDGAR 122 10.00    
SCR  BRODY Jun27 Jun08 May11 Apr20 Sep19 (pompell robert)BEJARANO R 122 25.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.