Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Tampa Bay Downs
Friday - February 16, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TAM-1   WIN (2/3/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/3/5)-(2/3/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/3/5)-(2/3/5)-(2/3/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/3/5)-(6/4/2/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/3/5)-(6/4/2/3)-(5/3/11/2) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
TAM-2   WIN (6/4/2/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/4/2/3)-(6/4/2/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/4/2/3)-(6/4/2/3)-(6/4/2/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/4/2/3)-(5/3/11/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (6/4/2/3)-(5/3/11/2)-(8/1/5/7) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
TAM-3   WIN (5/3/11/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/3/11/2)-(5/3/11/2/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (5/3/11/2)-(5/3/11/2/8)-(5/3/11/2/8) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (5/3/11/2)-(8/1/5/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (5/3/11/2)-(8/1/5/7)-(7/1/2/3) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
TAM-4   WIN (8/1/5/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/1/5/7)-(8/1/5/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/1/5/7)-(8/1/5/7)-(8/1/5/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/1/5/7)-(7/1/2/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (8/1/5/7)-(7/1/2/3)-(6/1/7) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
TAM-5   WIN (7/1/2/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/1/2/3)-(7/1/2/3/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (7/1/2/3)-(7/1/2/3/5)-(7/1/2/3/5) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (7/1/2/3)-(6/1/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/1/2/3)-(6/1/7)-(1/4/8/5/2) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
TAM-6   WIN (6/1/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/1/7)-(6/1/7/5/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/1/7)-(6/1/7/5/3)-(6/1/7/5/3) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (6/1/7)-(1/4/8/5/2) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (6/1/7)-(1/4/8/5/2)-(4/7/3/6) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
TAM-7   WIN (1/4/8/5/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/4/8/5/2)-(1/4/8/5/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/4/8/5/2)-(1/4/8/5/2)-(1/4/8/5/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/4/8/5/2)-(4/7/3/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/4/8/5/2)-(4/7/3/6)-(4/2/3/7) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
TAM-8   WIN (4/7/3/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/7/3/6)-(4/7/3/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/7/3/6)-(4/7/3/6)-(4/7/3/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/7/3/6)-(4/2/3/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
TAM-9   WIN (4/2/3/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/2/3/7)-(4/2/3/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/2/3/7)-(4/2/3/7)-(4/2/3/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TAM-1   02/16/2024 3960ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($25K) Purse ($28.5K) 3 F PT-12:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  UNO UNO Feb07 Jan19 Jan10 Dec31 Dec20 (cascallares n)IORIO MELISSA 111 20.00    
2  GIRVIN'S PRINCESS Jan13 Nov29 Sep29 Sep03   (o'con)DIAZ RAFAEL 120 1.20 29% 2.40    
3  PEGGYSUE I LOVE U Feb02 Jan10       (rodriguez dari)MARIN SAMUEL 122 4.00 26% 2.80    
4  POLA OF TROUBLE Oct10 Sep27 Sep08 Aug18   (cascallare)ALONSO LUIS 118 20.00    
5  HOPESNDREAMS Jan10 Dec20 Sep28 Sep10 Aug13 (dini mike)CASTANON L 122 6.00 5% 19.00    
6  CHIEF LADY Jan21 Jan03 Dec08     (sacco grego)MARQUEZ CHARLIE 122 1.80    
 
TAM-2   02/16/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($18K) 4UP ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NIP OF BOURBON Feb02 Jan19 Jan05 Dec20 Oct24 (gonzalez aldana)SPIETH S 118 15.00    
2  SIR LUMPALOT Jan19 Jan05 Dec13 Nov24 Oct28 (ness jamie)SANCHEZ J 118 2.50 14% 6.30    
3  ALBOROTO Feb03 Jan06 Dec27 Oct18 Oct05 (lopez mario)SPANABEL SKYLER 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  GHOSTSTRYDER Jan10 Dec13 Nov22 Mar31 Feb24 (connelly)GALLARDO A 120 3.00 18% 4.70    
5  WESTOVER Feb02 Jan14 Oct05 Sep10 Aug26 (mcburney patr)IORIO MELISSA 111 6.00    
6  STRONGER TOGETHER Feb02 Jan03 Nov24 Nov03 Oct20 (wright mi)MALDONADO GABRIEL 111 3.50 45% 1.20    
7  PLEASANT VALIANT Feb02 Jan19 Dec20 Aug20 Jul15 (o'connell kath)MARIN SAMUEL 118 4.50    
8  RUN LEA RUN Feb02 Jan14 Dec20 Nov24 Oct13 (rarick lynn)SOSA LAUREANO 118 20.00    
 
TAM-3   02/16/2024 5280ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($20K) 3 ALL PT- 1:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DASH TO FINISH Jan31 Jan19 Dec29 Dec20 Dec08 (dobber arnoud)FUENTES MARIO 120 20.00    
2  KARAOKE Jan27 Jul28       (orseno joseph )MARIN SAMUEL 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  TICKET TO THE TOP Jan20 Jan05 Oct14     (smith r)MORALES PABLO 120 4.00 13% 6.80    
4  CHASENTHEONE Jan31 Dec29 Nov22 Oct20   (padilla tim)QUINONEZ ALONSO 120 10.00    
5  MIDNIGHT CHEER Jan24         (delacour arnaud)CENTENO E 120 1.40 49% 1.00    
SCR  DRINKIN N DREAMING Dec29 Oct11 Sep08 Aug16   (smith g)HIRALDO JOHN 120 12.00    
SCR  KAPRIZOV Jan19 Jan07 Dec22 Aug27 Aug13 (raven kerri)CEDENO CAROL 120 10.00    
8  HORSESHOE PATSY Jan07 Dec20 Oct07     (rigattier)MALDONADO GABRIEL 113 10.00 ★    
9  FORT BLING Jan12         (richards ren)MENESES MARCOS 120 6.00    
10  GAV N BRODY Jan20         (cudworth paul)COTTO L 120 30.00    
11  LEGENDARY BEAST Jan28 Dec08       (bennett geral)SANTOS ADEMAR 120 4.50 13% 6.80    
12  D BUCKAROO Jan28 Jan10 Dec13 Nov24   (jones douglas)IORIO MELISSA 113 20.00    
SCR  IRON STREETS Jan28 Jan10 Nov24 Aug10 Aug03 (cascal)ROJAS EDUARDO 120 12.00    
SCR  MAGNUS EFFECT Jan28         (gonzalez aldana)SPIETH S 120 6.00    
 
TAM-4   02/16/2024 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($17K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SIR DANIEL Feb02 Dec30 Dec09 Nov12 Oct15 (wasiluk pete)MORELOS E 122 5.00 8% 11.70    
SCR  HIGHJUMP CHARLIE Jan17 Dec20 Aug10 Jul21 Jun30 (werneth rober)IORIO MELISSA 115 20.00    
3  GOOD BUMP Oct22 Sep29 Sep08 Jul07 Jun03 (minguet ramon)BRACHO A 122 10.00    
4  SMART JOKER Jan10 Dec20 Jan08 Nov10 Sep15 (bowersock mari)ALLEN D 122 3.00    
5  SEAX Feb07 Jan27 Jan13 Dec20 Dec08 (ochoa ger)MALDONADO GABRIEL 115 3.50 7% 13.00    
6  MIAH SAID Dec15 Dec08 Nov09 Oct06 Sep15 (holder tedst)NICHOLLS KEVEH 122 6.00    
7  SENSE OF GOLDEN Feb02 Nov20 Nov06 Oct23 Oct03 (cascallar)HERRERA R 122 30.00 5% 19.00    
8  GAMBITO Feb02 Dec10       (minguet ramo)MENESES MARCOS 122 4.00 54% 0.90    
9  PERFECT MOON Feb02 Dec31 Dec20 Dec13 Nov29 (cascallares )BATISTA A 122 6.00    
 
TAM-5   02/16/2024 5280ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($16K) Purse ($25.5K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IRWANI (ARG) Jan20 Dec30 Dec08 Nov25 Jul09 (d'angelo)GALLARDO A 121 4.50 21% 3.70    
2  CANNON'S ROAR Jan20 Dec30 Nov16 Oct22 Oct14 (wright mich)MARQUEZ CHARLIE 123 3.00 18% 4.60    
3  HARPOON HARRY Jan27 Jan03 Aug26 Aug06 Jul22 (bennett gera)MENESES MARCOS 119 4.50 5% 19.00    
4  JOE'S HAD ENOUGH Jan27 Dec15 Nov08 Jun06 Apr01 (granitz a)MALDONADO GABRIEL 112 10.00    
5  NAUTILUS (BRZ) Feb02 Jan13 Dec13 Dec07 Dec01 (ness jamie)SANCHEZ J 123 8.00 ★    
6  OHANA EMPIRE May29 Mar31 Mar04 Feb12 Jan21 (cudw)MCINTOSH J 112 30.00    
7  FATIMA'S BLESSING Jan27 Dec09 Nov12 Oct19 Sep22 (dini mike)MORALES PABLO 119 6.00 40% 1.50    
8  SPIRITUAL KING Oct26 Sep15 Aug24 Aug10 Jul20 (sacco d)FERRER C 119 5.00    
SCR  DARK AND FITZY Dec24 Dec06 Nov04 Oct12 Sep01 (sillaman richar)CENTENO E 123 6.00    
10  GHOST OF KHOZAN Jan31 Dec30 Sep15 Sep02 Aug02 (hayford jennifer)BUSH V 119 30.00    
11  NEW YORK PANTHER Jan27 Jan13 Dec09 Nov03 Oct13 (nunn douglas)CENTENO E 119 20.00    
SCR  ON THE ENGINE Jan13 Nov19 Oct27 Sep22 Aug20 (carrascojr v)ARROYO S 119 10.00    
SCR  BIG RED ROCKS Feb04 Nov29 Oct13 Aug26 Aug11 (wilson tony)SOSA LAUREANO 119 30.00    
SCR  TAP EM Jan24 Dec27 Dec20 Dec03 Oct13 (rivera xavie)MORELOS E 119 15.00    
 
TAM-6   02/16/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($21K) 4UP M/F PT- 2:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MINXY Feb03 Jan06 Dec02 Oct20 Sep10 (stormfelt )SANCHEZ J 118 2.50 19% 4.20    
2  VELOCISSIMA Oct13 Sep24 Aug24 Aug13 Jul23 (romero rafael)CHAVEZ DEIVY 118 20.00    
3  SPEIGHTFUL SIS Jan19 Sep17 Jul01 Jun02 Apr19 (richards ren)MENESES MARCOS 118 6.00 ★    
4  ZIP CODE ENVY Jan28 Dec20 Dec09 Oct11 Sep04 (campbell jo)MARQUEZ CHARLIE 118 6.00    
5  WILD ARMY BRAT Feb03 Dec06 Oct06 Aug04 Jun24 (moysey chelsey)HIRALDO JOHN 118 3.50 ★    
6  NICE BABY Jan24 Dec29 Dec06 Sep24 Aug26 (rodriguez dari)MARIN SAMUEL 122 3.00 42% 1.40    
7  WHATCHAMACALL Jan24 Dec12 Oct31 Oct18 Sep15 (rivera xa)HERNANDEZ H 118 15.00 14% 6.00    
8  HIGH SCHOOL CRUSH Jan11 Dec10 Nov19 Oct19 Sep22 (rigattieri jo)MORALES PABLO 118 6.00    
9  MOON ROSE Jan31 Jan03 Dec20 Oct06 Sep09 (dobber arno)SPANABEL SKYLER 118 30.00    
 
TAM-7   02/16/2024 5280ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($50K) Purse ($27.5K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BRAMBLE BLAZE Feb03 Dec24 Sep09 Aug20 Jul29 (dini mike)CEDENO CAROL 119 2.50 57% 0.80    
2  GARMENTO Jan19 Dec29 May28 Apr30 Feb16 (russo j)LOPEZ E 119 30.00 5% 19.00    
3  DENYING Sep29 Sep08 Aug18 Aug04 Jul22 (dobber arnoud)IORIO MELISSA 112 15.00    
4  ONE TIME WILLARD Jan03 Dec13 Nov18 Oct13 Sep03 (mcburney patri)CASTANON L 119 2.00 11% 8.30    
5  FACE VALUE Jan19 Oct10 Sep12 Jul18 Jun22 (orantes r)MARIN SAMUEL 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  LORD OF THE NILE Jan06 Nov24 Oct06 Jul01 May06 (dobber ar)MALDONADO GABRIEL 112 30.00    
7  HANK OLLIE Jan19 Dec24 Nov19 Oct27 Sep24 (wright mich)MARQUEZ CHARLIE 119 4.00    
8  FURIOUSLY Jan17 Nov18 Oct12 Jan08 Dec07 (motion graham)GOMEZ KEVIN 119 6.00 7% 13.90    
9  LALOBA FEROZ Nov24 Oct20 Aug19 Jun16 May05 (cascallares n)FUENTES MARIO 114 8.00    
 
TAM-8   02/16/2024 4620ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($75K) Purse ($53K) 3 ALL PT- 4:03
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SIR FLASH Dec02 Oct21 Aug17     (ochoa gerard)ARROYO S 118 5.00    
2  TUSCAN RULER Jan14 Dec20 Sep22 Aug26 Jul30 (bennett geral)SANTOS ADEMAR 118 6.00    
3  VALIANT EXCHANGE Jan27         (guciardo kathy)MARIN SAMUEL 122 8.00 8% 11.50    
4  CHISPARRAJOS Jan05 Dec09 Nov09 Aug31 Aug11 (gutierrez faust)CENTENO E 118 2.50 42% 1.40    
5  MORE THAN DESTINY Jan20 Dec31 Dec13 Oct20   (clay pat)TARASENCO P 118 20.00    
6  CATIRE VIZCAYA Oct14 Aug26 Jul20     (avila c)MENESES MARCOS 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
7  RATHMORE Jan13 Dec02 Oct21 Oct01   (albertrani )MARQUEZ CHARLIE 118 3.00 26% 2.90    
8  BANDED ROCKET Jan13 Dec24       (o'connel)GALLARDO A 120 4.50    
 
TAM-9   02/16/2024 5280ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($32K) Purse ($54K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HAPPYISASHAPPYDOES Jan27 Dec10 Nov12 Oct14 Sep11 (connelly teres)CEDENO CAROL 119 12.00    
2  HARROW Dec24 Apr16 Apr05 Mar08 Jan27 (hamm timoth)MARQUEZ CHARLIE 119 4.00 22% 3.60    
3  HIDDEN STASH Jun17 May19 Apr13 Feb12 Jun18 (oliver victor)MORALES PABLO 119 3.50 11% 8.30    
4  POSSIBLEMENTE Jan21 Nov18 Oct16 May30 Apr21 (rodriguez )SANCHEZ J 123 4.00 37% 1.70    
5  MR. SARCASTIC Jan20 Nov22 Oct14 Sep14 May06 (richards rena)IORIO MELISSA 112 30.00    
6  SIR SAFFER Jan24 Dec15 Aug13 Jul07 May27 (o'connell kath)CASTANON L 119 12.00    
7  YOU MUST CHILL Jan27 Dec09 Nov12 Oct22 Oct05 (philipp kary)MENESES MARCOS 119 8.00 11% 8.40    
8  EYES ON THE KING Jan27 Dec23 Nov04 Sep03 Aug06 (casse ma)GALLARDO A 119 3.00    
SCR  YACOWLEF (IRE) Jan27 Oct04 Sep01     (sisterson jack)CENTENO E 119 10.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.