Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Presque Isle Downs
Thursday - October 12, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

PID-1   WIN (6/2/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/2/1)-(6/2/1) 6 $2.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/2/1)-(6/2/1)-(6/2/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/2/1)-(4/5/7) 9 $2.00 $18.00 
    PK3 (6/2/1)-(4/5/7)-(3/2/6) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
PID-2   WIN (4/5/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/5/7)-(4/5/7) 6 $2.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/5/7)-(4/5/7)-(4/5/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/5/7)-(3/2/6) 9 $2.00 $18.00 
    PK3 (4/5/7)-(3/2/6)-(4/1/5/8) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
PID-3   WIN (3/2/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/2/6)-(3/2/6) 6 $2.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/2/6)-(3/2/6)-(3/2/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/2/6)-(4/1/5/8) 12 $2.00 $24.00 
    PK3 (3/2/6)-(4/1/5/8)-(5/4/7) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
PID-4   WIN (4/1/5/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/1/5/8)-(4/1/5/8) 12 $2.00 $24.00 
    TRI (4/1/5/8)-(4/1/5/8)-(4/1/5/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/1/5/8)-(5/4/7) 12 $2.00 $24.00 
    PK3 (4/1/5/8)-(5/4/7)-(1/4/3) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
PID-5   WIN (5/4/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/4/7)-(5/4/7) 6 $2.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/4/7)-(5/4/7)-(5/4/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/4/7)-(1/4/3) 9 $2.00 $18.00 
    PK3 (5/4/7)-(1/4/3)-(5/1/2) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
PID-6   WIN (1/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/4/3)-(1/4/3) 6 $2.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/4/3)-(1/4/3)-(1/4/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/4/3)-(5/1/2) 9 $2.00 $18.00 
    PK3 (1/4/3)-(5/1/2)-(5/1/4) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
PID-7   WIN (5/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/1/2)-(5/1/2) 6 $2.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/1/2)-(5/1/2)-(5/1/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/1/2)-(5/1/4) 9 $2.00 $18.00 
PID-8   WIN (5/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/1/4)-(5/1/2/4) 9 $2.00 $18.00 
    TRI (5/1/4)-(5/1/2/4)-(5/1/2/4) 18 $0.50 $9.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
PID-1   10/12/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($7.5K) Purse ($13K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SWIGERT Oct05 Sep21 Aug29 Aug16 Aug03 (caramori edu)ALENCAR WALBER 124 3.00 16% 5.10    
KAGERO Sep27 Sep12 Aug23 Jul25 Jul04 (fennessy john)ALLEN M 124 3.50 18% 4.40    
KIRRABON Aug26 Jul08 Jun03 May10 Apr20 (hodsdon danie)MORALES PABLO 120 8.00    
SUPER GEUSE Jul31 Jul17 Jun06 May23 Mar01 (hamm timothy)STANLEY O 124 8.00    
WOW LADY Sep27 Sep12       (amaya jo)MARTINEZ A 120 4.00    
MULSANNE (IRE) Aug29 Aug14 Jul31 Jul12 Sep15 (hendriks)GALLARDO A 124 2.50 40% 1.50    
VARSITY DOLL Sep27 Sep12 Aug07 Jul05   (monserrate mari)ROHENA JR 120 10.00    
 
PID-2   10/12/2023 5490ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($13K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
RAPA NUI Sep27 Sep12 Aug28 Aug15 Jul31 (buhrow d)ALLEN D 122 12.00    
YARDMAN Oct02 Sep20 Aug21 Aug08 Jul11 (musarro josep)VILLA-GOMEZ H 124 3.00    
LUDO Sep30 Feb06 Jan02 Dec02 Nov14 (albright geor)TUNON JORDANO 122 15.00    
NATHANIEL'S HOPE Sep27 Sep12 Aug28 Aug07 Jul25 (cheeks )DOMINGUEZ EDILBERTO 122 5.00 40% 1.50    
GAMBLING MAN Sep27 Sep12 Aug21 Oct12 Sep23 (smith julie)FRET STEVEN 122 3.50 23% 3.40    
FLAT BUSTED Sep27 Sep04 Aug21 Aug07 Jul25 (stites w)STANLEY O 122 6.00    
PIZZA CHARLIE Sep17 Aug06 Jul17 May27 Mar23 (martin w)GALLARDO A 124 1.80 12% 7.20    
 
PID-3   10/12/2023 5490ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($19K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CERTAIN JUSTICE Oct02 Sep15 Sep01 Aug02   (albright geor)TUNON JORDANO 119 10.00    
MISCHIEF WARRIOR Sep21 Aug31 Aug17 Jul31 Jun29 (kulp brandon )MORALES PABLO 119 2.00 33% 2.00    
ALEMAN Oct02 Sep19 Sep04     (rojas ed)GALLARDO A 121 1.60 45% 1.20    
UNSTABLE PRINCE Oct02 Aug27 Aug13 Jul28 Feb20 (martin willia)VILLA-GOMEZ H 122 8.00    
SAM STORMY Oct02 Aug16 Jul20 Jun01 Apr21 (lopez robert)SPIETH S 119 4.50    
INAPPROPRIATE Oct02 Aug28 Jul24 Jul10 Nov14 (gutters)NAVARRO J 122 5.00 5% 19.00    
 
PID-4   10/12/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:21
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ON AN ISLAND Sep19 Aug22 Jul25 Jul03 Jun21 (weaver cassondra)MARTINEZ W 121 4.00 12% 7.10    
  (by PETIONVILLE out of TAHITIAN PEARL by EL PRADO (IRE))
BRADY Oct05 Sep04 Jul12 Sep18   (antus lawr)MONTANEZ ROSARIO 124 6.00    
  (by BRETHREN out of TIZ BOA by TIZNOW)
INSTIGATING Apr30 Apr14 Feb24     (spanabel r)WALES GARY 121 15.00    
  (by BAL A BALI out of ENGLISH TEA by TWINING)
I STRONG Sep11 Aug16 Aug01 Jul12 Jun27 (rice kevin)AYALA J 121 3.00 34% 1.90    
  (by WICKED STRONG out of RUSH TO WAR by MAJESTIC WARRIOR)
CACTUS KEVIN Sep11 Jul31 Jul12 Jun27 Oct12 (walsh d)ALLEN D 121 3.50 10% 9.20    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of CACTUS KRIS by CACTUS RIDGE)
LARRY'S LUNCHBOX         (rivelli larry)MORALES PABLO 121 4.50    
  (by MASTERY out of TRAJAN'S ARCH by ARCH)
WEEKEND CHARGE         (boucher lilith)RIQUELME J 121 10.00    
  (by WILL TAKE CHARGE out of WEEKEND FANTASY by PLEASANTLY PERFECT)
BANG A RANG         (hamm timothy)STANLEY O 121 8.00 8% 11.50    
  (by ADIOS CHARLIE out of LIVINGSTON'S LADY by MR. LIVINGSTON)
 
PID-5   10/12/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($15K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PINK CHANNEL Sep11 Jul23 Jul03 Jun04 May02 (mardif james )VILLA-GOMEZ H 122 8.00    
SCR  ALHAAN Sep20 Sep04 Aug27 Aug02 Jun21 (bernardini jay )LEON A 119 12.00    
MO NIGHEAN DONN Sep12 Jul26 Jun20 May15 Nov21 (tasso mark)STANLEY O 122 3.00    
WREAKING HAVOC Sep26 Aug28 Aug10 Apr29 Apr14 (martin william)ALLEN D 119 3.50 22% 3.60    
SHE'S A KEEPER Sep23 Sep15 Aug18 Aug04 Jul14 (rodrigue)GALLARDO A 122 6.00 49% 1.00    
THAT'S MY CAT Sep06 Aug21 Jul03 Jun07 Dec28 (hardesty)MARTINEZ A 119 4.00    
PATH TO VICTORY Sep21 Sep12 Aug16 Aug07 Jul17 (fennessy john)ALLEN M 122 6.00 5% 19.00    
MARVELETTE Oct06 Aug05 Jul15 Jun10 May24 (coletti edwar)MORALES PABLO 119 5.00    
 
PID-6   10/12/2023 3960ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($13.5K) Purse ($19K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
VILLAGE QUEEN Sep25 Sep12 Aug14 Jul26 Jul11 (potts g)SPIETH S 122 3.00 30% 2.30    
BRISKY FROLIC Sep20 Aug31 Jul27 Jul09 Jun22 (englehart jer)MORALES PABLO 122 6.00    
GOLDEN SUN DROPS Jun14 May02 Mar26 Feb28 Feb07 (vitali j)RIQUELME J 122 10.00 11% 8.30    
HALF BIRTHDAY Sep12 Aug29 Aug08 Jul25 Jul04 (kintz ma)MONTANEZ ROSARIO 122 2.00 26% 2.90    
POSH PLAYDAY Sep27 Sep12 Jun26 Mar24 Jan14 (wismer s)STANLEY O 122 4.50    
BATH AND TENNIS (IRE) Sep27 Sep12 Aug21 Aug07 Jul17 (amaya jo)GALLARDO A 122 3.50    
CHEROKEE CHATTER Sep27 Sep20 Sep12 Aug16 Aug02 (carr-roz)MARTINEZ A 122 15.00    
 
PID-7   10/12/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($40K) Purse ($34K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BABY NO WORRIES Sep24 Jul22 Jun03 May13 Mar17 (girten t)GALLARDO A 122 1.80 6% 16.90    
BERAVINA Aug17 Jul05 Jun18 May23 Dec09 (sweezey kent)SPIETH S 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
GENEVIEVE'S Z VA Sep18 Sep11 Aug23 Aug14 Jul24 (carr-rozantz c)ALLEN D 124 10.00    
SWEET AMY Sep18 Aug14 Jul05 Jun13 May31 (wismer glenn)ALENCAR WALBER 122 4.50    
FORGOTTEN PEACE Jul05 Jun19 May22 Dec09 Oct26 (girten tim)MORALES PABLO 122 1.60 71% 0.40    
TAP THE TITTLES Sep09 Aug08 Jul16 Jun01 Sep15 (trombetta michae)MARTINEZ W 119 4.00    
 
PID-8   10/12/2023 5490ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:09
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PREFECT Sep22 Sep08 Aug12 May12 Apr15 (albright geor)TUNON JORDANO 124 10.00 21% 3.80    
FLIGHT TO PARADISE Sep28 Sep21 Sep11 Jul31 Jul19 (judd cas)MARTINEZ A 124 4.50    
LEAVE 'EM LOADED Sep21 Sep11 Aug17 Aug02 Jul19 (girten tim)MORALES PABLO 124 3.50    
HEATHER'S GOLD Sep26 Sep10 Aug29 Aug14 Jul12 (rogers mic)AYALA J 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
EXPRESS PHAROAH Sep28 Aug30 Aug22 Apr21 Mar29 (bowersock mari)ALLEN D 124 2.00 54% 0.80    
PHARAOH FANCY PANT Sep28 Aug30 Aug17 Aug02 Jul03 (gonzalez aldana)SPIETH S 124 4.00    
PONT DU GARD Sep28 Sep10 Aug23 Jul31 Jun19 (schaber debbi)VILLA-GOMEZ H 124 5.00    
MOUNTAIN TREE Sep21 Aug30 Aug17 Jul03 Jun19 (clarke dylan)ALENCAR WALBER 124 20.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.