Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Thursday - December 15, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   12/15/2022 5280ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($38K) 3UP M/F PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ABSTRACT MOMENT Oct21 Sep14 Aug10 Jul27 Jun18 (nevin michell)FRANCO MANUEL 121 4.00 14% 6.30    
2  TEKILA Nov25 Oct15 Sep10 Aug06 Jun23 (hennig mark)DAVIS DYLAN 124 2.50 ★    
3  LORDHEARMYPRAYER Nov25 Oct13 Aug21 Aug06 Jul10 (barrera oscar)OLVER MADISON 111 12.00    
4  RICELLE Nov25 Oct21 Aug21 Jul28 Jun30 (legall r)DAVIS A 124 20.00 ★    
5  IN TRAFFIC Nov07 Oct13       (eng)WORRIE SHIVNARINE 121 1.20 59% 0.70    
6  ALWAJD Nov21 Aug01       (farro patricia)CANCEL ERIC 121 4.00 ★    
 
AQU-2   12/15/2022 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($37K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KEEN DANCER Dec02 Nov10 Oct28 Oct13 Sep16 (per)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 120 6.00 ★    
2  HIGH SCHOOL CRUSH Dec01 Oct23 Aug28 Jun26 Jun03 (barker edward)FRANCO MANUEL 120 4.00 14% 6.10    
3  KNOT ANYMORE Jul27 Jun10 May27 Apr22 Mar26 (falcone rober)OLVER MADISON 110 2.50 31% 2.20    
4  PREPAREFORTAKEOFF Nov19 Oct29 Oct19 Sep30 Aug31 (maldonado)VARGAS A 120 6.00    
5  BANKERS DAUGHTER Nov16 Sep05 Aug09 Jun25 May28 (d'al)HUAYAS (JASON) 115 5.00 22% 3.60    
6  TRIPLE P Dec01 Nov08 Sep12 Aug29 Aug09 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 120 2.00 ★    
 
AQU-3   12/15/2022 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($36K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:46
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MIDNIGHT WORKER Dec09 Oct14 Sep03 Aug13   (chic)HUAYAS (JASON) 111 5.00 20% 4.10    
2  SIR JOHN Nov13 Oct07 Aug27 Aug06   (mott i)LEZCANO JOSE 120 4.00 ★    
3  STRONG LIGHT Dec09 Nov25 Oct03 Aug19 Jun26 (barrera oscar)FRANCO MANUEL 120 3.00 ★    
4  KONG LOVES A FIGHT Nov13 Nov05 Sep03 Aug07 Jul09 (noda orlando)DAVIS DYLAN 120 8.00    
5  BREADMAN Nov26 Nov19 Nov11 Nov05 Aug10 (persaud rand)CASTELLANO J 121 3.50 9% 10.60    
6  GHOSTLYPRINCE Dec02 Sep22 Aug14 Jun25 May27 (tessore )GOMEZ ANTONIO 116 10.00    
7  GIMMEBACKMYBULLETS Dec01 Nov13 Sep13 Aug30 May28 (atras rob)CARMOUCHE K 120 3.50 41% 1.50    
 
AQU-4   12/15/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($85K) 2 F PT- 2:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SEAWITCH         (albertrani thom)CARMOUCHE K 119 8.00    
2  LIGHTBULB MOMENT         (clement christo)CANCEL ERIC 119 8.00    
3  RISK FREE Nov10 Oct23 Oct02 Sep15 Aug17 (dela)HUAYAS (JASON) 112 8.00 7% 12.50    
4  BALPOOL         (atras rob)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 10.00    
5  SHIRL'S DELIGHT         (martin ca)VARGAS A 119 6.00 ★    
6  ROYAL POPPY Nov20 Oct14 Sep17 Aug14   (handal raymond)DAVIS DYLAN 119 4.00 33% 2.00    
7  PARDON MOI Nov10         (asmussen steve)LEZCANO JOSE 119 6.00    
8  LIAM'S CHAMP         (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 119 3.50 36% 1.80    
9  PROMISEHER AMERICA         (handal raymo)CASTELLANO J 119 6.00 ★    
 
AQU-5   12/15/2022 4290ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STONECOLDWARRIOR Nov27         (forde jason)LUZZI J 124 30.00    
2  TREVOR BARDETTE         (donk davi)VARGAS A 122 8.00    
3  DREAMPOINT Nov18 Oct21 Sep24 Sep02 Aug06 (sci)WORRIE SHIVNARINE 124 8.00 13% 6.50    
4  CALLALOO Nov13         (donk dav)GOMEZ ANTONIO 117 4.00 14% 6.20    
5  RIPE FOR MISCHIEF Nov18 Sep25 Aug27 Jul30 Jul09 (bond harold )HARKIE K 122 12.00    
6  CICCIOBELLO Nov11         (ryan s)CARMOUCHE K 122 6.00 ★    
7  FORTUNE'S NEPHEW May14         (levine bruce)CASTELLANO J 122 1.40 51% 0.90    
8  AWESOME NATIVE         (abreu r)FRANCO MANUEL 122 4.50 ★    
 
AQU-6   12/15/2022 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FAMISHED Nov04 Oct01 Aug06 Jun25 May13 (de horacio)CARMOUCHE K 123 3.00 18% 4.50    
2  GENTLEMAN JOE Nov02 Oct15 Sep05 Jul23 Jul09 (englehart je)CASTELLANO J 123 4.50 23% 3.30    
SCR  KENNY HAD A NOTION Nov17 Oct19 Sep24 Sep07 Jul30 (jones mic)VARGAS A 121 10.00    
4  DATESFREEDOM Nov16 Nov01 Oct18 Sep13 Aug11 (delau)HERNANDEZ OMAR 113 30.00    
5  LASTCHANCEATGLORY Oct21 Sep25 Aug24 Jul22 Jun18 (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 121 2.50 21% 3.80    
SCR  CARIBBEAN (AUS) Dec04 Oct21 Sep30 Sep09 Aug19 (barrera oscar)OLVER MADISON 113 20.00 ★    
7  TWO THIRTY FIVE Nov12 Oct14 Sep30 Aug19 Jul17 (rice linda)DAVIS DYLAN 123 1.60 15% 5.50    
 
AQU-7   12/15/2022 4620ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($75K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MIA BEA STAR Dec04 Nov11 Nov04 Oct27 Oct09 (persaud rand)CASTELLANO J 120 4.50 9% 9.90    
SCR  JACKSON AVENUE Nov22 Nov07 Oct24     (breed ronal)ALVARADO JUNIOR 120 20.00 5% 19.00    
3  STEAL MY HEART Nov06 Oct03 May11 Apr23 Feb27 (clarke dylan)ALPANDER B 122 30.00    
SCR  FOCUS Nov04 Oct14 Sep18 Aug13   (martin f)CANCEL ERIC 120 15.00    
5  SALSA A PARTE Nov19 Apr30 Mar27 Feb19   (handal ra)VARGAS A 120 15.00    
6  SHADOLAMO Dec04 Nov20 Nov05 Oct14 Sep29 (jones eduardo)OLVER MADISON 112 12.00    
7  CINDERELLA'S CAUSE Nov16 Nov04 Aug28 Jul22 Jun22 (englehart chri)LEZCANO JOSE 122 6.00    
8  CARAMOCHA Nov04 Oct09 Sep15 Aug17 Jul22 (friedman mitche)DAVIS DYLAN 122 8.00    
9  CARBON Nov18 Oct01 Mar20     (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 120 3.00 39% 1.60    
10  NEW YORK BANKER Nov17 Nov04 Oct09 Sep05 Aug05 (noda)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 8.00 ★    
11  LIBERTY FLAME Nov18 Oct22 Jun19 May28 Apr23 (quick)HERNANDEZ OMAR 113 10.00    
SCR  KANT HURRY LOVE Nov18 Oct22 Oct01 Aug26   (clement chris)FRANCO MANUEL 120 8.00 28% 2.60    
 
AQU-8   12/15/2022 5280ft DIRT RC1 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($85K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SYSTEMIC CHANGE         (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 121 2.00 43% 1.30    
1A  OPPORTUNITY SET Nov11         (brown c)CASTELLANO J 121 2.00 ★    
2  FAZARO Nov10 Oct09 Sep30 Aug20 Jul29 (williams)GOMEZ ANTONIO 116 20.00    
3  SMOKE AND HEAT Sep29 Jul24 Jun24 May01 Apr01 (falcone r)VARGAS A 121 8.00 ★    
4  MISTICAL CURLIN Nov06 Oct03 Aug04 Jul16 Jun26 (rodr)HUAYAS (JASON) 114 30.00    
5  PREDICTED May15 Apr21 Apr09     (dutrow anthony )CANCEL ERIC 121 8.00    
6  MATT DOYLE Nov11 Oct09 Aug28     (rodriguez rudy )DAVIS DYLAN 121 8.00 ★    
7  MAGICAL WAYS Nov11         (mott w)MARAGH RAMSAY 121 12.00    
8  CELESTIAL MOON Nov10 Oct15       (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 121 15.00 29% 2.40    
9  HAPPY BOB Nov11 Aug13 Jun26     (schettino domi)LEZCANO JOSE 121 5.00 ★    
10  VODKA MARDINI Nov18         (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 121 3.50    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.