Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Penn National
Wednesday - December 14, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
PEN-1   12/14/2022 5280ft DIRT RC0 FAST Starter Allowance ($5K) Purse ($20K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PEAK OF CHIC Dec03 Oct17 Aug30 Aug03 Jun25 (moore michae)HERNANDEZ ANDY 120 4.00 9% 10.10    
2  CAR LADY Nov22 Oct05 Sep16 Aug20 Aug06 (kravets bru)SALGADO ANTHONY 120 10.00 ★    
3  BONITA LASSIE Nov22 Nov01 Oct12 Sep15 Aug31 (salvaggio)HERNANDEZ A 124 2.00 42% 1.40    
4  FAVORITE DOLL Nov22 Nov01 Oct19 Sep15 Aug03 (ferreira fernando)CORA D 120 10.00    
5  EARLY FROST Nov22 Nov01 Oct12 Aug31 Aug19 (ippolito mark)CHIAPPE R 122 10.00    
6  TERPEYE Nov22 Nov04 Oct24 Oct03 Aug30 (moreno tito)CORUJO LEONARDO 120 10.00    
7  LOVE IS STRONG Nov22 Oct23 Oct12 Sep15 Aug10 (vera migu)RODRIGUEZ R 120 3.50 28% 2.60    
8  KATY THE CAT Nov22 Nov01 Oct12 Sep28 Sep15 (kravets m)AGUILAR M 120 6.00 ★    
 
PEN-2   12/14/2022 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($11.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PEACEARELLA Nov29 Oct19 Sep14 Jul28 Jun15 (moreno tito)AGUILAR M 119 3.00 34% 1.90    
2  ESTA CHUCK Nov29 Oct19 Sep02 Aug12 Jul06 (jacavone j)LLOYD W 119 12.00    
3  REAWAKENED Sep17 Sep02 Jul16 Jun26 May07 (meister wil)INIRIO J 120 3.00 ★    
4  OH SO JAZZY Nov29 Nov02 Sep21 Sep14 Aug26 (nunley rand)SALGADO ANTHONY 120 3.50    
5  DANCE A LITTLE JIG Dec02 Nov09 Oct26 Oct12 Sep23 (ferreira fernan)WHITNEY G 120 2.50 32% 2.10    
6  GINGERONMYMIND Nov29 Nov02 Oct19 Aug26 Jul28 (hayes kirsten)CHIAPPE R 120 10.00 9% 10.10    
7  SEEKING THE THRONE Dec02 Nov02 Oct04 Aug26 Jul28 (fenimore elbert)RODRIGUEZ E 120 10.00 ★    
 
PEN-3   12/14/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($10.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DOUBLE TIME BAY Nov29 Nov02 Oct04 Sep21 Aug18 (kulp bran)RODRIGUEZ R 121 8.00    
2  COMMUNICATION FAIL Nov29 Nov16 Oct18 Sep21 Sep02 (moreno tito)DIAZ VLADIMIR 122 20.00    
3  KNOCKDOWN KID Nov29 Nov16 Oct18 Oct04 Aug26 (salinas jose)CORA D 121 15.00    
4  GREAT ASSUMPTIONS Nov16 Nov06 Oct21 Sep30 Sep23 (neilson wallac)CEDENO CAROL 121 6.00    
5  SIBERIAN Nov14 Oct26 Oct04 Sep07 Aug18 (lawrence james)CONNER TYLER 122 3.00    
6  YANKEE EMPIRE Oct04 Sep07 Aug12 Jul21 Jun23 (carpio erin)TUNON JORDANO 122 4.00 22% 3.60    
7  ABHAR Jun18 May27 May05 Apr22 Apr14 (bobadilla j)INIRIO J 122 12.00    
8  JUMP FREE May21 Apr27 Apr06 Mar23 Mar16 (kulp l)WHITNEY G 121 8.00    
9  SUMMER ASH Nov16 Oct14 Aug28 Aug20 Jul30 (gonzale)ORTIZ ORLANDO 121 6.00 5% 19.00    
10  KAZTHAROS Nov25 Nov09 Oct18 Sep16 Aug05 (synnefias dimitr)CASTILLO A 123 6.00 16% 5.20    
SCR  MYSTIC POINT Nov11 Nov04 Oct14 Sep30 Sep15 (chircop s)HERNANDEZ A 121 5.00 14% 6.00    
SCR  LOVED AGAIN Nov28 Nov16 Oct13 Aug21 Aug13 (diaz jorge)RAMOS C 117 8.00 17% 5.10    
 
PEN-4   12/14/2022 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($25K) Purse ($28.9K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BRAMBLE BUSH Nov04 Aug29 Aug03 Jul01 May27 (maymo j)AGUILAR M 122 10.00    
2  TAPIT'S GIRL Nov18 Nov04 Oct14 Aug30 Aug21 (kulp bran)RODRIGUEZ R 124 8.00    
SCR  BETTY'S SMILE Nov08 Oct17 Sep28 Sep14 May24 (grusmark)DAVIS A 122 10.00    
4  HONORABLE LILLY Nov16 Oct26 Oct17 Jun08 Mar30 (sells rac)VARGAS L 120 15.00 5% 19.00    
5  TODO SOLA Nov15 Oct06 Sep07 Aug19 Jul20 (beattie cody)WHITNEY G 119 3.50 47% 1.10    
6  TIMELY TRADITION Nov15 Oct21 Oct07 Sep07 Aug19 (kravets bru)SALGADO ANTHONY 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
7  SIX O'CLOCK SARAH Nov19 Nov03 Oct26 Oct09 Sep28 (ness jamie)BARBOSA JEIRON 114 2.00 8% 11.20    
8  MOONSAFE Nov15 Oct21 Sep25 Aug19 Jul10 (salvaggio mich)CONNER TYLER 120 4.50    
9  PROPOSITION Nov15 Oct05 Sep08 Aug15 Jul25 (kulp bran)HERNANDEZ A 120 8.00 7% 13.50    
 
PEN-5   12/14/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($25K) Purse ($18.1K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:49
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SURPRISINGLY SWEET         (bennett juanit)CEDENO CAROL 123 6.00 ★    
2  DUST BUNNY Nov22 Nov01 Oct21 Sep14 Sep01 (stites fl)HERNANDEZ A 123 5.00    
3  LET'S GO MO Nov22 Sep14 Aug18     (miller a)WHITNEY G 123 12.00    
4  COSMOLOGICAL Nov23 Feb01       (albright geor)TUNON JORDANO 123 4.00 20% 4.10    
5  LI'LBITO'GLORY         (crook-demas)SALGADO ANTHONY 123 8.00 ★    
6  MRS BELL May12 Apr26 Mar25     (lucas bon)RODRIGUEZ R 123 3.00 56% 0.80    
SCR  O'STELLA'S ROSE Nov01         (mcclellan c)CORA D 123 8.00    
8  GOLDEN PHASE Nov23         (stites w)AGUILAR M 123 12.00    
9  ALL THAT MAGIC         (crook-demasi k)CONNER TYLER 123 6.00 ★    
 
PEN-6   12/14/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($28K) 2 F PT- 8:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AFRICAN ANGEL Oct14         (houghton )HERNANDEZ A 120 3.50 51% 1.00    
2  I CAME TO DANCE Nov25 Nov08 Oct14     (zalalas mich)VILLEGAS JERRY 120 4.00 5% 18.60    
3  ORGANIZED CHAOS Oct24 Sep15 Sep01 Jul27   (agnew naoise)CONNER TYLER 120 3.00 ★    
4  WE'LL SEE Oct21         (kravets bru)SALGADO ANTHONY 120 6.00 ★    
5  PEACH BE WITH Q Oct26         (kreiser c)CHIAPPE R 120 6.00 20% 4.10    
6  QUEEN WIGGY Oct24 Sep15 Jul27     (kulp bran)RODRIGUEZ R 120 4.50    
7  SHARP CATCH         (maymo j)AGUILAR M 120 8.00    
 
PEN-7   12/14/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($25K) Purse ($18.1K) 2 F PT- 8:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TRAJEC HOLIDAY Nov15 Oct11 Sep20 Sep06   (albright ge)INIRIO J 122 6.00 13% 7.00    
SCR  FOXY JUNIOR Nov30 Nov08 Oct14     (houghton thomas)CHIAPPE R 122 3.00 ★    
3  LADY LIGHTFEET         (mcclellan erin)CONNER TYLER 122 6.00 8% 11.80    
4  OUTSPEND Oct26 Oct05 Aug11 Jul27   (agnew nao)HERNANDEZ A 122 4.00    
5  MARION GRACE Nov23 Oct12 Sep24 Aug22   (coletti edw)NUNEZ Y 122 1.80 45% 1.20    
6  FINISHING TOUCH         (houghton thomas)CORA D 122 10.00 8% 11.70    
7  LUCKY STROKE Nov22         (zalalas mich)VILLEGAS JERRY 122 12.00    
 
PEN-8   12/14/2022 5490ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($13.1K) 3UP ALL PT- 9:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  VITESSE Oct25 Oct11 Sep16 Aug31 Jul27 (graci kimber)VILLEGAS JERRY 122 3.00 12% 7.30    
2  FLAT BILL Nov09 Oct24 Oct12 Sep07 Aug21 (gutterso)DAVIS A 122 15.00    
3  SAMARONTI Nov30 Nov08 Oct24 Sep20 Sep06 (rodriguez)RODRIGUEZ R 122 5.00 ★    
4  HELMS DEEP (GB) Nov27 Nov08 Oct27 Aug19 Aug04 (sarson alisa )DIAZ VLADIMIR 122 6.00    
SCR  FLAT OUT FLASHY Nov30 Oct18 Sep22 Sep07 Aug12 (beattie cody)WHITNEY G 122 6.00 50% 1.00    
6  MINE TO HOLD Dec04 Nov16 Nov01 Oct05 Sep09 (synnefias pana)CONNER TYLER 124 10.00    
7  DIGGERS DIAMOND Oct11 Sep22 Sep07 Sep01 Aug19 (geist w)BAKER J 122 15.00    
8  LONGTAIL Sep26 Sep14 Sep05 Aug17 Jul25 (pino v)BOWMAN ADAM 122 6.00 ★    
9  CONTRAFLOW Nov08 Oct18 Aug26 Aug05 Feb03 (graci kim)HERNANDEZ A 122 3.50 16% 5.40    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.