Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Keeneland
Wednesday - October 08, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
KEE-1   WIN (6/2/3/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/2/3/7)-(6/2/3/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/2/3/7)-(6/2/3/7)-(6/2/3/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/2/3/7)-(7/8/10/1/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (6/2/3/7)-(7/8/10/1/4)-(3/7/2/1) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
KEE-2   WIN (7/8/10/1/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/8/10/1/4)-(7/8/10/1/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/8/10/1/4)-(7/8/10/1/4)-(7/8/10/1/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (7/8/10/1/4)-(3/7/2/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (7/8/10/1/4)-(3/7/2/1)-(7/1/5/12/2) 100 $1.00 $100 
KEE-3   WIN (3/7/2/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/7/2/1)-(3/7/2/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/7/2/1)-(3/7/2/1)-(3/7/2/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/7/2/1)-(7/1/5/12/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (3/7/2/1)-(7/1/5/12/2)-(5/8/9/4) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
KEE-4   WIN (7/1/5/12/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/1/5/12/2)-(7/1/5/12/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/1/5/12/2)-(7/1/5/12/2)-(7/1/5/12/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (7/1/5/12/2)-(5/8/9/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (7/1/5/12/2)-(5/8/9/4)-(3/4/7/10/6) 100 $1.00 $100 
KEE-5   WIN (5/8/9/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/8/9/4)-(5/8/9/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/8/9/4)-(5/8/9/4)-(5/8/9/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/8/9/4)-(3/4/7/10/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (5/8/9/4)-(3/4/7/10/6)-(3/5/8/2) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
KEE-6   WIN (3/4/7/10/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/4/7/10/6)-(3/4/7/10/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/4/7/10/6)-(3/4/7/10/6)-(3/4/7/10/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (3/4/7/10/6)-(3/5/8/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (3/4/7/10/6)-(3/5/8/2)-(7/8/6/3/9) 100 $1.00 $100 
KEE-7   WIN (3/5/8/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/5/8/2)-(3/5/8/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/5/8/2)-(3/5/8/2)-(3/5/8/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/5/8/2)-(7/8/6/3/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
KEE-8   WIN (7/8/6/3/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/8/6/3/9)-(7/8/6/3/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
KEE-1   10/08/2025 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($58K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COOL ANDY Sep12 Jun14 Dec28     (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 120 8.00    
SCR  GOOD MONEY Aug16 Jun27 May23 Mar22 Feb22 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 122 6.00 17% 4.70    
3  ANTHONIAN Sep14 Aug16 Jul14 Jun28 Jun08 (morse ran)LEPAROUX R 122 10.00 14% 6.30    
4  HANDSOME PANTS Sep03 Aug09 Jul27 Jul11 Mar14 (mcpeek kennet)ORTIZ JR 118 4.00    
5  GOOD BALI Aug31 Jul14 May30 Apr19 Mar23 (arnold george )SAEZ GABRIEL 122 5.00    
6  SCOTTISH STORM Aug20 Jul20 Jun28 May24 Apr19 (dutrow richard)ORTIZ L 122 4.50 34% 1.90    
7  PALAGIO Aug30 Sep01 Jul28 Jun07 Apr05 (riefenberg er)VELAZQUEZ R 122 20.00 5% 17.30    
SCR  PROTECTIVE Aug31 Jan05 Oct25 Sep21 Aug21 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.00    
 
KEE-2   10/08/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($55K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PURPLE AND GOLD Aug23 Jul05 Jun11 May24 Oct27 (esquivel jesus)ORTIZ L 121 8.00 12% 7.20    
2  CLOUD NUMBER NINE Sep21         (williamson)LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 15.00    
3  BIT OF FROST Sep10 Jul30 May06 Apr17 Mar09 (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 121 12.00    
4  BELONGTOTHENAVY         (butcher james)GOMEZ AGUSTIN 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
5  VOLATILE NITE Aug04         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 6.00    
SCR  COMPLEX TRICK Sep14         (wismer gl)CAMACHO JR 121 15.00    
7  DIDN'T IT RAIN Aug08 Jun25 Apr29 Mar23 Nov30 (stall m)ELLIOTT JANE 121 1.60 21% 3.80    
8  NORTHERN VOYAGE Aug23 Oct27 Sep20 Aug03   (eurton peter)ORTIZ JR 121 3.50 19% 4.10    
9  REAL NICE SURPRISE Oct10         (calhoun willi)MORALES EDGAR 121 15.00    
10  GOLDEN GRAMMY         (vanden britt)EMIGH A 121 10.00 18% 4.70    
 
KEE-3   10/08/2025 5610ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($30K) Purse ($55K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  POLAR BEAR PLUNGE Sep20 Aug27 Feb12 Jan29 Dec27 (hiles a)LANERIE J 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
2  MI DINERO Sep21 Aug29 Aug08 Jul11 May23 (munoz car)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  LAUGHNOWCRYLATER Sep12 Aug09 Jun21 Nov28 Oct07 (mccarthy micha)ORTIZ L 122 1.40 64% 0.60    
4  BATTER UP Sep13 Aug24 Jul15 Jun20 Jun01 (troiani nicco)MORALES EDGAR 120 15.00    
5  OVERSTATEMENT Sep12 Aug17 Aug02 Feb08 Jan17 (miller kenny)MACHADO LUAN 122 3.50    
6  LOOK TO THE CROSS Sep11 Aug15 Jul17 Nov28 Nov08 (mcpeek ke)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 120 10.00    
7  BETTERA Sep07 Jun15 May25 Apr27 Mar28 (hernandez )GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 6.00 9% 10.60    
8  ULTIMATE STRIKE Sep11 Aug14 Jul25 Jun25 Jun13 (casse w)SAEZ LUIS 124 8.00    
 
KEE-4   10/08/2025 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($53K) 2 ALL PT- 2:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CAPRIO Aug19 Jul09       (ennis john)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 10.00 16% 5.10    
2  UNBRIDLED'S MAP Jul06         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
3  OTZELBERGER Aug24         (murphy conor)CANNON DECLAN 119 15.00    
SCR  BROCK'S BOY Sep13 Aug28       (leonard george)ELLIOTT JANE 119 20.00    
5  TULLY Sep21 Aug22       (hancock j)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 8.00 14% 6.40    
6  GRAY IS OKAY Aug28 Aug09       (hartman chris)ORTIZ JR 119 3.50    
7  TINGUS PINGUS Sep17 Aug09       (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 2.50 34% 1.90    
8  MOONWALK Sep14         (chavez man)HERNANDEZ N 119 20.00    
9  C. P. A. JIM Sep21 Aug29 Jul25     (mcpeek ke)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 119 10.00    
10  BAGG O TIME Sep17 Jul19 Jun28     (vance tho)BEALMEAR C 119 20.00    
SCR  RED SPEEDO Sep17 Aug17 Jul19 Jun19 May23 (hancock a)JUAREZ NIK 119 12.00    
12  PSALMIST Sep09         (brisset rodolp)ORTIZ L 119 6.00 13% 7.00    
SCR  CONSEQUENTIAL Sep17 Aug09       (mcpeek kennet)ORTIZ JR 119 3.00    
14  STEPNOSKI Sep09         (walsh p)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00    
SCR  TISUM Sep26 Sep03 Aug14 Jul25   (munoz carlos)TREJOS JOSEPH 119 10.00    
SCR  AGUILA NEGRA Sep09         (perez juan)HERNANDEZ N 119 30.00    
 
KEE-5   10/08/2025 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($32K) Purse ($69K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EYE WITNESS Aug28 Jul31 Jun28 May16 Apr30 (caramori caio)ORTIZ JR 122 15.00    
2  OUTLIER Sep21 Jun11 May16 Apr24 Dec27 (hiles rick)GUTIERREZ MARIO 122 12.00    
3  INEXORABLE Jul20 Jun26 Jun11 May25 May03 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 6.00    
4  SIR SAFFER Sep17 Aug28 May02 Apr06 Mar12 (manley steve)MACHADO LUAN 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
5  TRIDENT HIT Aug17 Jun11 May09 Feb08 Jan24 (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.50 49% 1.00    
SCR  MAGNOLIA MIDNIGHT Aug16 Jul04 Apr17 Mar14 Mar07 (kantarmac)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 122 1.80    
7  CASTLE ISLAND Aug20 Aug06 Jun08 May02 Mar22 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 122 5.00    
8  EASTSIDE COOL Sep14 Aug16 Jun20 May16 Apr11 (west etha)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 6.00 20% 4.10    
9  MANFREDI Sep02 Jun24 May20 Apr16 Mar13 (reed r)MCKEE J 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
KEE-6   10/08/2025 5940ft TURF RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($110K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  POWER OF WILL Sep07 Jul23 Jan04 Nov30 Sep11 (fawkes david)LANERIE J 120 20.00    
  (by WAR OF WILL out of BELLEZZA ROSSO by TAPIT)
2  BISOU Sep25 Aug22 Oct27     (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 120 30.00    
  (by CURLIN out of MIDNIGHT BISOU by MIDNIGHT LUTE)
3  BLAST FURNACE Sep07 Aug08 Jun29 May30 May08 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 124 2.00 28% 2.50    
  (by THE FACTOR out of ALIQUIPPA by NATIVE ALLIANCE)
4  GOLD SOVEREIGN Sep07 Jul04       (brown c)ORTIZ L 120 3.00 26% 2.90    
  (by STEPHEN GOT EVEN out of GOLDEN INDEED by ALLEN'S PROSPECT)
SCR  OUR SLICEOF HEAVEN Sep10 Aug28 Feb20 Jan16   (mickelson j)POSTON K 110 50.00    
  (by GET STORMY out of LET HER MONEY GO by WHYWHYWHY)
6  ABBI FEDE Sep07 Aug31 Jul21 Jun15 May17 (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ENTICED out of JENNYS PRAYER by TAPIT)
7  FOUNDERS Aug15 Jul12       (joseph saffie)ORTIZ JR 120 4.00 24% 3.20    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of SPINDLE by MARI'S BOOK)
8  TAPITOWN Aug05         (medina robert)VELAZQUEZ R 120 20.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of MEG FITZ by TAPIT)
9  CRYSTAL HILL Sep07 Aug31 Jul19 Jun01 Oct05 (schultz lind)GEROUX FLORENT 120 12.00    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of HOLIDAY'S JEWEL by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
10  KICKING CLEAR Aug31 Jun08 Apr08 Feb23 Dec06 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by KEEN ICE out of CHEEKY CHARM by A.P. INDY)
11  FEELING GRAND Aug28         (danner kelsey)MACHADO LUAN 120 20.00    
  (by INSTAGRAND out of FEELING GOOD by DISTORTED HUMOR)
 
KEE-7   10/08/2025 4620ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CERVARO DELLA SALA (GB) Sep14 Aug08 Jun25 Apr26 Apr11 (meah m)SAEZ LUIS 121 20.00    
2  TICKIN TIME BLONDE Sep10 Aug31 Aug04 Jun25 Jun05 (oliver victor)VELAZQUEZ R 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
3  NO WHAT IFS Jun22 May15 Apr25 Mar01 Jan20 (forster grant )ORTIZ L 121 2.00 34% 1.90    
4  PRETTY SURE Aug04 Jul13 Sep14 Aug25   (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00    
5  SHE CALLED Mar29 Mar08 Aug17 Jun22 May25 (fawkes da)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 4.00 16% 5.10    
6  LADY GO GO Aug24 Jun08 Mar08 Feb07 Dec19 (drury thomas)MONCADA IRVING 121 3.00    
7  BELLE OFTHE DANCE Sep07 Jul11 Jun17     (correas ignac)ORTIZ JR 118 12.00    
8  CANAL STREET Jun07 Mar22 Feb15 Jan18 Dec14 (calhoun willi)MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00 14% 5.90    
 
KEE-8   10/08/2025 5610ft TURF RC10 GOOD Allowance Purse ($130K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ELEGANT TRIP Aug17 Jun25 May16 Nov28 Oct18 (arnold georg)GEROUX FLORENT 124 20.00    
SCR  BEYOND STOKED Sep11 Mar29 Mar01 Jan25 Aug03 (lynch a)VELAZQUEZ R 122 8.00    
3  WYOMING BILL Sep13 Aug16 Jul31 Jun21 May31 (day-phillips )ORTIZ JR 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
4  NATIVE RUNNER Sep06 Aug02 Jun28 Jun07 Apr12 (mcpeek ke)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 118 20.00    
5  SARDIS Sep04 Jul21 Jun28 Apr25 Mar23 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 124 20.00    
6  GILDED CRAKEN Sep06 Aug09 Jul12 Jun01 Jan04 (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 122 4.50 12% 7.20    
7  CAMEO PERFORMANCE Aug28 Jun05 May03 Mar22 Aug31 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.40 41% 1.40    
8  MOUNTAIN BEAR (IRE) Aug31 Jul05 May25 Oct05 Nov03 (ward a)ESPINOZA V 122 3.50 26% 2.80    
9  ENGLISH CHUNNEL Sep11 May10 Apr19 Mar21 Feb21 (catalano m)CURTIS BEN 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
10  NAPTOWN Sep13 Sep01 Aug15 Jul17 Jun27 (magana j)RUIZ JORGE 124 30.00    
11  YINZER Sep10 Aug02 Jul05 Jun07 May03 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 30.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.