Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - May 29, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (5/6/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/6/4)-(5/6/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/6/4)-(5/6/4)-(5/6/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/6/4)-(6/3/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/6/4)-(6/3/4)-(7/5/3/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-2   WIN (6/3/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/3/4)-(6/3/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/3/4)-(6/3/4)-(6/3/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/3/4)-(7/5/3/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/3/4)-(7/5/3/1)-(6/4/10/3/5) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-3   WIN (7/5/3/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/5/3/1)-(7/5/3/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/5/3/1)-(7/5/3/1)-(7/5/3/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/5/3/1)-(6/4/10/3/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (7/5/3/1)-(6/4/10/3/5)-(5/8/3) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-4   WIN (6/4/10/3/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/4/10/3/5)-(6/4/10/3/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/4/10/3/5)-(6/4/10/3/5)-(6/4/10/3/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (6/4/10/3/5)-(5/8/3) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (6/4/10/3/5)-(5/8/3)-(1/7/4) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CD-5   WIN (5/8/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/8/3)-(5/8/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/8/3)-(5/8/3)-(5/8/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/8/3)-(1/7/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/8/3)-(1/7/4)-(8/1) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
CD-6   WIN (1/7/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/7/4)-(1/7/4/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (1/7/4)-(1/7/4/3)-(1/7/4/3) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (1/7/4)-(8/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (1/7/4)-(8/1)-(8/5/2/7) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-7   WIN (8/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (8/1)-(8/1) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (8/1)-(8/5/2/7) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
CD-8   WIN (8/5/2/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/5/2/7)-(8/5/3/2/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (8/5/2/7)-(8/5/3/2/7)-(8/5/3/2/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   05/29/2025 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($55K) 4UP ALL PT- 5:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SHOW TIME Apr29 Mar23 Mar01 Feb01 Dec13 (cunningham j)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 2.50    
2  MIACOMET May16 Mar08 Jan31 Oct16 Sep22 (shirer ma)TORRES A 118 3.50    
3  GUANARE Apr16 Feb12 Jan03 Dec07 May04 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 118 4.00    
4  OVIATT CLASS Mar23 Oct27 May27 Apr11 Mar08 (damato philip)CURTIS BEN 118 6.00 8% 11.90    
5  JUNIOR BUG May10 Apr25 Oct30 Sep15 Jun06 (martinez ral)TORRES A 118 8.00 36% 1.70    
6  CREATE TROUBLE Mar22 Feb22 Dec26 Nov23 Oct26 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 5.00 17% 4.90    
7  BORN FLAWLESS May02 Apr19 Mar15 Feb17 Jan19 (vance d)LANERIE J 118 6.00    
 
CD-2   05/29/2025 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($76K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TANGO MIKE MIKE May01 Feb15 Feb01 Jan17 Dec07 (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 118 4.50    
2  IRON SHARPENS IRON May02 Apr19 Mar14 Nov17 Oct26 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.00    
3  ACKNOWLEDGE May09 Mar22 Jan19 Dec13 Nov23 (hess b)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 118 5.00 20% 4.00    
4  BRAVE BLEND May09 Mar21 Mar02 Feb01 Jan05 (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 124 6.00 5% 19.00    
5  ULTIMATE STRIKE Mar02 Feb03 Dec22 Nov14 Oct16 (santamaria carlo)CURTIS BEN 124 4.00    
6  TIZMARKUS Apr27 Apr19 Mar29 Feb23 Jan25 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 124 2.00 52% 0.90    
 
CD-3   05/29/2025 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($57K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LOTTA LISSA Mar20 Feb26 Feb14 Dec12 Oct31 (bahena ism)CORRALES GERARDO 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
2  NURSEKRINGLEDANCES Mar29 Feb28 Feb02 Jan18 Nov03 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 123 2.50    
3  PAT'SCHROMECOMPASS Apr11 Mar13 Oct16 May04 Jan10 (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 123 10.00 5% 19.00    
4  SWEET STAR May17 May05 Apr09 Feb28 Jan31 (bahena ismael)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 15.00    
5  AMY Z May02 Apr04 Dec20 Nov24 Sep13 (damato philip)SAEZ LUIS 123 2.00 16% 5.20    
6  MORNING MIRACLE Feb06 Jan16 Dec18 Nov22 Oct10 (blair jordan)TORRES A 123 4.50    
7  APPEALING ADDIE Apr27 Apr04 Mar01 Jan24 Dec15 (morse l)CEDILLO ABEL 123 3.00 52% 0.90    
 
CD-4   05/29/2025 5610ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($80K) Purse ($82K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FAITH UNDERSTOOD Apr23 Jan25 Nov29 Jun01 Apr28 (hancock dana)GEROUX FLORENT 124 3.50    
2  PURRING Mar09 Sep11 Aug21 Aug02 Jul26 (pomier de)CURTIS BEN 124 20.00    
3  HIDDEN QUARRY Dec13 Oct07       (west w)TORRES A 118 20.00 7% 12.60    
4  SMOOTH WAVES Apr26 Feb06 Nov03 Oct10 Sep07 (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 124 6.00 15% 5.70    
5  LIKELY PERSPECTIVE (IRE) Apr30 Mar21 Oct11     (stall m)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
6  LIFE ADVICE Apr26 Oct09 Sep16 Aug28 Jun24 (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 124 3.00 36% 1.80    
SCR  ITWILLBEFUN May25 Apr18 Feb17 Jan20 Dec29 (dutrow ri)DETTORI LANFRANCO 118 8.00    
8  ANNELLE May08 Apr12 Mar08 Feb09 Jan08 (david a)JUAREZ NIK 118 8.00    
9  SASSY PRINCESS Apr19 Sep20 Jul07 Jun01 Apr25 (walsh p)SAEZ LUIS 124 4.00    
10  MALIBU SMART Feb28 Jan19 Dec21 Mar30 Mar10 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 124 8.00 13% 6.60    
 
CD-5   05/29/2025 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($20K) Purse ($76K) 4UP M/F PT- 6:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PUNCHY GIRL Apr27 Mar23 Mar01 Feb01 Nov27 (morse rand)ASMUSSEN J 118 4.00    
2  MERCY WARREN Mar28 Jan19 Nov27 Nov08 Sep15 (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 118 2.50    
3  LITTLE SISTER SUE May05 Apr23 Mar12 Feb05 Jan26 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  MARSHMALLOW QUEEN Sep01 Jul13 Jun28 Jun01 May11 (sano antonio)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00    
5  DE' ANS EIGHTY Apr23 Feb01 Dec12 Nov15 Jun27 (diodoro r)TORRES A 120 5.00 35% 1.80    
SCR  PRINCESS IS OLIVIA Apr16 Mar01 Jan03 Nov13 Oct26 (sweezey kent)MACHADO LUAN 118 5.00    
7  BELLA CRUELLA May17 Apr18 Mar20 Feb13 Jan16 (bahena ismael)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 30.00    
8  LITTLE BLAZE May02 Apr19 Mar08 Mar01 Dec12 (asmussen steve)ORTIZ L 118 3.00 33% 2.00    
 
CD-6   05/29/2025 4290ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PINFIRE May11 Mar04 Jan30 Jan09 Nov22 (tomlinson mi)TORRES A 123 3.50 39% 1.60    
SCR  NORTHERN CHILL May16 Apr26 Mar21 Mar07 Feb16 (shirer ma)TORRES A 125 3.00    
3  GREAT RICHIE M Apr16 Feb23 Jan25 Jan04 Dec01 (maker mi)SANTANA JR 123 5.00 ★    
4  B SUDD Mar22 Feb23 Jan19 Dec14 Nov06 (von donn)CEDILLO ABEL 123 8.00 12% 7.40    
5  HAUNTED FLAME May08 Apr19 Mar21 Nov21 Aug19 (jacobson d)CORRALES GERARDO 120 6.00    
6  PAIR OF SOCKS Apr18 Mar20 Feb21 Jan18 Dec01 (stewart dallas)SAEZ LUIS 120 5.00    
7  MIRACLE WORKER Mar21 Feb16 Jan23 Dec21 Oct30 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 123 4.50 13% 6.80    
8  HE'S ELUSIVE Apr23 Apr09 Jun27 Jun05 Jan26 (jackson chr)MIRANDA ROGELIO 125 15.00    
 
CD-7   05/29/2025 5280ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SKYRO May01 Mar29 Mar05 Jan25 Dec28 (sharp joe)TORRES A 122 12.00 32% 2.10    
SCR  WEST HOLLYWOOD Apr29 Apr08 Aug30 Jul27 Jun20 (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 122 4.00    
SCR  WHAT SAY THEE Mar22 Feb15 Nov17 Sep01 Aug04 (maker mi)SANTANA JR 122 6.00    
SCR  TALL BOY Apr29 Apr08 May02 Apr12 Mar07 (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 122 20.00    
5  MIRANDA RIGHTS Apr29 Aug29 Aug03 Jun22 May31 (casse mark)GEROUX FLORENT 122 15.00    
SCR  NOISES OFF Dec14 Oct05 Sep01 Jul06 May31 (lobo paul)TORRES A 122 15.00    
SCR  SON OF A BIRCH May08 Mar19 Dec21 Nov09 Oct05 (morley thomas)CURTIS BEN 122 30.00    
8  NORTHERN INVADER Apr11 Feb01 Jul13 Jun01 Apr19 (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 122 3.00 41% 1.50    
9  OUT OF DEDUCTIONS Apr29 Apr08 Mar06 Jan25 Dec26 (block chri)HERNANDEZ J 122 15.00    
SCR  HERCHEE Apr24 Nov23 Oct26 Sep08 Jul27 (pitts helen)MORALES EDGAR 124 3.50    
SCR  HIGGINS BOAT Apr29 Mar22 Feb15 Dec28 Nov28 (amoss tho)LEPAROUX R 122 8.00    
 
CD-8   05/29/2025 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($45K) 4UP ALL PT- 8:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  THE QUEENS JULES Apr27 Mar22 Feb17 Dec14 Sep21 (van berg )BEALMEAR C 118 10.00    
2  PERUVIAN LUCKY May10 Apr26 Feb28 Feb01 Jan18 (cook b)MONCADA IRVING 113 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  SITTIN ON GO May03 Apr06 Mar23 Mar08 Jul12 (hartman chri)RAMOS D 118 3.50 ★    
4  EL FRANCO Mar27 Oct30 Sep14 Aug08 Jun28 (norris mike)HESS SARA 118 20.00    
5  BUSINESS MODEL May12 Apr29 Mar22 Nov20 Nov02 (jaco)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 118 4.00 28% 2.60    
6  READY PURSUIT May10 Apr26 Mar27 Feb23 Jan23 (gonzalez e)BEJARANO R 118 15.00    
7  IMPROBABLE STORY May16 Apr26 Apr16 Mar13 Feb07 (king l)ELLIOTT JANE 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
8  SECRET POCKET Apr27 Apr05 Mar16 Feb03 Nov16 (bogle fergu)GUTIERREZ MARIO 118 5.00 43% 1.30    
9  BRIGHT LEAF Apr11 Jan24 Jan05 Oct16 Aug31 (sims p)MACHADO LUAN 118 5.00    
10  CROSSTOWN SHOOTOUT May10 Apr24 Mar13 Feb27 Feb15 (mcgovern shannon)PRESCOTT R 118 4.50    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.