Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Friday - February 21, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
AQU-1   WIN (1/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/3)-(1/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (1/3)-(6/3/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (1/3)-(6/3/1)-(2/5/3) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
AQU-2   WIN (6/3/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/3/1)-(6/3/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/3/1)-(6/3/1)-(6/3/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/3/1)-(2/5/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/3/1)-(2/5/3)-(3/7/5) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
AQU-3   WIN (2/5/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/5/3)-(2/5/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/5/3)-(2/5/3)-(2/5/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/5/3)-(3/7/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/5/3)-(3/7/5)-(2/3/6/4) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-4   WIN (3/7/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/7/5)-(3/7/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/7/5)-(3/7/5)-(3/7/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/7/5)-(2/3/6/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/7/5)-(2/3/6/4)-(4/6/2) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-5   WIN (2/3/6/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/3/6/4)-(2/3/6/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/3/6/4)-(2/3/6/4)-(2/3/6/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/3/6/4)-(4/6/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/3/6/4)-(4/6/2)-(3/6/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-6   WIN (4/6/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/6/2)-(4/6/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/6/2)-(4/6/2)-(4/6/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/6/2)-(3/6/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/6/2)-(3/6/1)-(2/7/4/9/5) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
AQU-7   WIN (3/6/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/6/1)-(3/6/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/6/1)-(3/6/1)-(3/6/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/6/1)-(2/7/4/9/5) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
AQU-8   WIN (2/7/4/9/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/7/4/9/5)-(2/7/4/9/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/7/4/9/5)-(2/7/4/9/5)-(2/7/4/9/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   02/21/2025 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($80K) 4UP M/F PT- 1:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHOP LIFTING Jan31 Dec01 Oct31 Sep21 Aug22 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 122 1.40 62% 0.60    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of MISS SHOP by DEPUTY MINISTER)
2  SHIRL'S DELIGHT Jan31 May09 Apr04 Feb23 Dec15 (martin carlos)FRANCO MANUEL 122 2.50    
  (by TONALIST out of DECRYPT by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
3  WIMBERLY Sep07 Aug10 Jul05 Apr28   (green j)CARMOUCHE K 122 6.00 7% 12.90    
  (by CURLIN out of DREAM TREE by UNCLE MO)
SCR  WAKE UP LAUREN Jan26 Dec07 Oct23 Oct10 Jun23 (reynol)MARAGH RAMSAY 122 20.00    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of WEB O' GOLD by HARD SPUN)
5  MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE         (brown c)CANCEL ERIC 122 1.60    
  (by VINO ROSSO out of TAPAS by SKY CLASSIC)
 
AQU-2   02/21/2025 5280ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($20K) Purse ($44K) 4UP M/F PT- 1:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WHISTLER'S STYLE Jan30 Jan01 Dec02 Oct19 Sep13 (giangi)MARAGH RAMSAY 121 6.00 5% 19.00    
2  PISTOL LIZ ABLAZEN Jan19 Dec22 Dec06 Nov09 Oct04 (miceli michae)FRANCO MANUEL 123 4.00    
3  ADELEKE Jan08 Dec09 Nov20 Oct09 Nov18 (dunn felissa)CARMOUCHE K 123 3.00 30% 2.30    
SCR  WILLFUL DESIRE Feb07 Jan03 Dec08 Aug14 Jul07 (rice linda)CANCEL ERIC 123 2.00    
5  FLOGE Feb13 Jan14 Dec08 Nov30 Nov15 (potts wayne)SILVERA RUBEN 121 6.00    
6  GOLDCREST Feb07 Aug29 Jul28 Jun29 May10 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 121 4.00 36% 1.80    
 
AQU-3   02/21/2025 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($32K) 3 ALL PT- 2:17
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SMOKEY PLACES         (ryerson t)CARMOUCHE K 120 10.00    
2  AMERICA'S HONOR Nov07 Oct24 Sep28 Aug31 Aug22 (sacco gregory)FRANCO MANUEL 120 1.00 59% 0.70    
3  LAIRD OF MAGNOLIA Jan25 Dec06 Nov10 Oct12 Sep27 (arriaga anton)SILVERA RUBEN 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  NICO'S DERBY RUN Jan25 Dec27       (barker r)DAVIS KATIE 120 4.50    
5  BRODERICK Jan26 Jan10 Nov07 Oct24   (reynol)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 3.50 13% 6.80    
SCR  KING'S SPIRIT Jan26 Dec28 Nov18     (sacco gregory )LUZZI J 120 5.00    
 
AQU-4   02/21/2025 5940ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($29K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  TAPARINO Feb06 Jan19 Dec14 Oct25 Sep28 (antonu)MARAGH RAMSAY 123 2.50    
2  SOLO EMPIRE Jan25 Dec29 Nov21 Oct18 Jul18 (begg ben)LUZZI J 123 12.00    
3  BROWN DON'T STOP Jan30 Jan18 Dec28 Dec14 Nov21 (bernardini j)HARKIE K 123 3.50 29% 2.40    
SCR  D DAY SKY Jan30 Jan11 Dec14 Nov21 Oct14 (potts wayne)FRANCO MANUEL 123 1.60    
5  BIG RICH Feb07 Jan11 Dec29 Nov22 Oct27 (ferraro james )LEZCANO JOSE 123 6.00 21% 3.70    
6  NEPTUNE BEACH Feb02 Dec15 Nov30 Oct31 Sep01 (rodriguez r)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 20.00    
7  OLLIE CAN DANCE Jan25 Nov13 Oct21 Sep30 Sep16 (ibrahim emron)SILVERA RUBEN 123 8.00 25% 3.00    
 
AQU-5   02/21/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($30K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  I SEE YOU LOOKIN Feb09 Jan16 Nov30 Nov09 Oct13 (sacco d)CANCEL ERIC 123 5.00    
2  ZEEBEAR Aug01 Feb16 Dec30 Dec07 Oct29 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 123 1.80 53% 0.90    
3  PERFECT FLIGHT Jan26 Jan04 Dec14 Nov14 Oct05 (shivmangal loli)DAVIS KATIE 123 4.50 12% 7.10    
4  WHENLOVETAKESOVER Jan26 Jan04 Dec13 Nov08 Oct10 (quick patrick)OLVER MADISON 123 10.00 5% 19.00    
5  ALEAH ALEAH Jan25 Dec27 Oct12 Aug16 Jul12 (nevin michell)FRANCO MANUEL 123 4.00    
6  PINEAPPLE MAN Jun16 May12 Apr20 Mar29 Feb24 (nevin michelle)CARMOUCHE K 123 3.50 12% 7.40    
7  KING MOONRACER Jan04 Dec13 Nov15 Oct25 Aug14 (potts wayne)MARTINEZ R 123 20.00    
 
AQU-6   02/21/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($50K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  STEWIE Jan30 Nov05 Oct04 Sep10 Aug28 (englehart chr)FRANCO MANUEL 123 8.00    
2  ABADIN Jan26 Jan04 Dec06 Nov03 Sep28 (nevin michelle)LEZCANO JOSE 123 5.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  COURAGEOOUS OH LA Jan30 Jan11 Dec15 Nov20 Nov11 (dixon k)DAVIS KATIE 121 15.00    
4  AMUNDSON Jul27 Jul06 May05 Apr11 Mar21 (toscano john )SILVERA RUBEN 121 2.50 51% 1.00    
5  TETSU Apr19 Mar30 Feb19 Feb09 Dec29 (dutrow richard)LUZZI J 121 3.00    
6  MISTER J T Dec27 Nov01 Oct19 Sep14 Aug22 (levine bruce)CANCEL ERIC 123 3.50 23% 3.30    
7  DOT'S DOLLAR Jan30 Jan05 Nov01 Sep27 Aug10 (rodrig)MARAGH RAMSAY 121 4.50    
 
AQU-7   02/21/2025 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($84K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SCOOT DADDY Jan16 Dec12 Oct19 Sep22 Jun16 (abreu fernand)FRANCO MANUEL 123 6.00 14% 6.20    
SCR  DANGEROUS RIDE Jan30 Jan19 Dec14 Sep27 Aug28 (goberdhan chan)CHANDRA PREM 111 20.00    
3  CRAZY MASON Jan18 Nov30 May11 Mar09 Feb10 (sacco d)CANCEL ERIC 123 2.50 23% 3.30    
4  SPUN AND WON Jan18 Jul21 May09 Apr04 Feb09 (dutrow richard)LUZZI J 121 8.00    
5  TOXIC GRAY Jan18 Dec28 Nov16 Oct24 Sep27 (miceli michael)CARMOUCHE K 123 2.00    
6  VICTORY WAY Jan12 Dec06 Aug22 Jul01 Apr08 (mott i)LEZCANO JOSE 121 1.80 23% 3.40    
 
AQU-8   02/21/2025 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($74K) 3 ALL PT- 4:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HAVE A CIGAR Jan04 Nov03 Sep21     (maker j)CANCEL ERIC 120 6.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of RIVIERA CHIC by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
2  TOTAL SILENCE Jan11 Dec07 Nov02     (gargan danny)CARMOUCHE K 120 4.50 36% 1.80    
  (by GORMLEY out of SILENCIA by SILENT NAME)
3  KISMEHOLDMETHRLME Feb08         (arriaga anton)OLVER MADISON 120 30.00    
  (by SOLOMINI out of MOOLAH SCHMOOLAH by UNION RAGS)
4  TIOTE         (cox h)LEZCANO JOSE 120 3.50 17% 4.90    
  (by AUTHENTIC out of CABALES by PULPIT)
5  ALZERO         (bond jam)DAVIS KATIE 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of BEE NOTEWORTHY by READ THE FOOTNOTES)
6  MO FOR THE KING         (duggan)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 10.00    
  (by KING FOR A DAY out of NEVERSAIDIWASSWEET by EUROSILVER)
7  RECURRING REVENUE         (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 120 2.50 20% 4.10    
  (by COMPLEXITY out of METEORIC MATRON by MINESHAFT)
8  FIRST PITCH Jan11         (jimenez l)CEDENO CAROL 120 30.00    
  (by IMPROBABLE out of GIANT BLOSSOM by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
9  GRAND CASH Jan25         (bhigroog chet)SILVERA RUBEN 120 4.50 7% 13.30    
  (by INSTAGRAND out of SPEIGHTSTOWN LADY by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
10  STATE PARK Nov17         (lauer michael)LUZZI J 120 30.00    
  (by SOLOMINI out of WRIGLEY IVY by PLEASANT TAP)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.