Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Penn National
Friday - September 15, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
PEN-1   WIN (1/3/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/3/7)-(1/3/9/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (1/3/7)-(1/3/9/7)-(1/3/9/7) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (1/3/7)-(5/7/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/3/7)-(5/7/4)-(5/2/7/8/10) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
PEN-2   WIN (5/7/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/7/4)-(5/7/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/7/4)-(5/7/4)-(5/7/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/7/4)-(5/2/7/8/10) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (5/7/4)-(5/2/7/8/10)-(4/6/1) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
PEN-3   WIN (5/2/7/8/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/2/7/8/10)-(5/2/7/8/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/2/7/8/10)-(5/2/7/8/10)-(5/2/7/8/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (5/2/7/8/10)-(4/6/1) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (5/2/7/8/10)-(4/6/1)-(7/8/4/5) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
PEN-4   WIN (4/6/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/6/1)-(4/6/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/6/1)-(4/6/1)-(4/6/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/6/1)-(7/8/4/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/6/1)-(7/8/4/5)-(2/1) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
PEN-5   WIN (7/8/4/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/8/4/5)-(7/8/4/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/8/4/5)-(7/8/4/5)-(7/8/4/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/8/4/5)-(2/1) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (7/8/4/5)-(2/1)-(6/3/5) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
PEN-6   WIN (2/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/1)-(2/1) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (2/1)-(6/3/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
PEN-7   WIN (6/3/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/3/5)-(6/3/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/3/5)-(6/3/5)-(6/3/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
PEN-1   09/15/2023 3300ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($16K) Purse ($20.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NITRO TIME Aug23 Aug11 Jun19 Mar30 Feb11 (comi w)AGUILAR M 118 3.00 60% 0.70    
SCR  STEVETHEVANDRIVER Sep03 Aug27 Aug10 Jul28 Jun09 (brown keith)CONCEPCION AXEL 115 15.00    
3  LIVE FIRE Aug17 Aug03 Jul03 May25 Nov30 (mcclellan erin)CONNER TYLER 122 3.50 13% 6.70    
4  TAP EM Aug02 Jun28 Jun14 Feb01 Jan11 (kulp bran)RODRIGUEZ R 122 4.00    
5  STANHOPE Aug30 Aug23 Aug08 Jul26 Jul05 (lucas bonnie)BEATO INOEL 120 12.00    
6  SPIKES SHIRL Aug03 Jul05 Jun21 May17 Apr26 (ferreira fernando)CORA D 120 8.00    
7  U KANT WHIP IT Aug30 Jul30 Jun09 Aug27 Jul29 (salvaggio)HERNANDEZ A 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
8  MY BLUE EYES Aug23 Jul27 Jul13 Jun25 May18 (kravets bru)SALGADO ANTHONY 118 15.00    
9  KHAKI JACK Aug16 Jun21 May31 May10 Apr27 (kulp brando)INIRIO J 120 5.00 ★    
10  NAUTICAL NATURE Aug30 Aug03 Jul05 Jun21 Mar23 (ippolito ma)CORUJO LEONARDO 120 50.00    
SCR  NICK THE CARDSHARK Aug30 Aug08 Jul17 Jun21 Jun06 (mcclellan erin)CONNER TYLER 120 8.00    
 
PEN-2   09/15/2023 5280ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($16K) Purse ($20.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  CARGO SHIP Sep07 Aug08 Jul20 Jun20 May31 (beattie c)RODRIGUEZ R 120 6.00    
2  PAPAL LAW Aug17 Jul09 Jun18 May29 Oct30 (wolfe j)CORUJO LEONARDO 120 8.00    
SCR  DAMIR Aug26 Jul27 Jun14 Apr08 Mar18 (machado antonio)MENA E 120 8.00    
4  SACHMO Aug23 Aug04 Jul20 Jul07 Jun21 (salvaggio mich)CONNER TYLER 122 5.00 10% 9.30    
5  SPIRITUAL KING Aug24 Aug10 Jul20 Jul13 Mar04 (kulp bran)RODRIGUEZ R 124 2.50 36% 1.80    
6  NICK PAPAGIORGIO Aug23 Jul10 Feb22 Feb07 Jan09 (vega richard)RANGEL JOEZER 120 4.00    
7  DYNAMITE KARMA Aug10 Jul27 Jun15 May11 Apr19 (fields kevin)CHIAPPE R 122 6.00 28% 2.50    
8  COLBALOAF Aug26 Aug10 Aug03 Jun18 May18 (salvaggio)HERNANDEZ A 120 3.00    
 
PEN-3   09/15/2023 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($27.1K) 2 ALL PT- 4:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HOLD MY BEER BRO         (beattie todd )DIAZ VLADIMIR 119 8.00    
  (by AIROFORCE out of QUALITY SILVER by EUROSILVER)
2  MUSIC BOX DANCER Aug25 Aug02       (houghton th)INIRIO J 119 3.00 28% 2.60    
  (by PEACE AND JUSTICE out of SILHOUTTE ISLAND by PATTON)
3  PENTATONIC Aug25         (kravets m)AGUILAR M 119 10.00    
  (by WEIGELIA out of HARMONIC MISS by SUBORDINATION)
4  CHASIN' WHISKEY         (houghton thomas)CORA D 119 6.00    
  (by CROWN OF THORNS out of WHISKEY ROSE by DON'T GET MAD)
5  PTERODACTYL         (kravets bru)SALGADO ANTHONY 119 4.00 35% 1.90    
  (by AIR FORCE BLUE out of KICK IT DEEP by SKY MESA)
6  CIRCLE P         (stites w)CHIAPPE R 119 15.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of QUIET INFERNO by QUIET AMERICAN)
7  SONG OF THE EAST Sep06         (carpio erin)BEATO INOEL 119 8.00 12% 7.60    
  (by WELL SPELLED out of VOICE OF THE EAST by MISBAH)
8  INTERRUPTER         (salvaggio mark)CONNER TYLER 119 4.50 5% 19.00    
  (by TAPITURE out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
9  DRAMA KEY         (graci kimber)VILLEGAS JERRY 119 15.00    
  (by BAHAMIAN SQUALL out of IMPERIAL CODE by IMPERIALISM)
10  REBEL INVASION Aug21 May01       (albright geor)TUNON JORDANO 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by NORMANDY INVASION out of REBEL ROSEMARY by COASTAL STORM)
 
PEN-4   09/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($31.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:28
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STASSI Aug24 Aug03 Jul05 May31 May11 (houghton thomas)CORA D 122 6.00 7% 13.20    
2  MORE RANSOM Jun09 May24 May10 Mar22 Feb17 (kulp bran)RODRIGUEZ R 120 4.50    
3  OUT OF AMMO May11 Apr20 Mar10 Feb23   (mcclellan e)CORUJO LEONARDO 118 5.00    
4  HOT FUDGE WARRIOR Aug25 Aug03 Jul07 Jun20 May24 (beattie m)CHIAPPE R 120 2.50 33% 2.00    
5  UNION FOLLY Aug31 Aug04 Jul13 Jun22 Jun01 (houghton thomas)BEATO INOEL 124 4.00    
6  MORGANS COVE Aug25 Jul28 Jul07 Jun22 Mar10 (geist david)INIRIO J 118 8.00 32% 2.10    
SCR  OLIVIA DEE Aug25 Aug03       (martin jr)AGUILAR M 124 10.00    
8  ARROGANTE Jul28 Jul13 Jun22 Jun01 May24 (moreno tito)DIAZ VLADIMIR 118 10.00    
 
PEN-5   09/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($31.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  Z MYSTIQUE Sep01         (mcclellan e)CORUJO LEONARDO 122 6.00    
  (by XIXIXI out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
2  CERTAIN JUSTICE Sep01 Aug02       (albright georg)CONNER TYLER 122 6.00    
  (by PEACE AND JUSTICE out of UNPLUGGED by UNTUTTABLE)
3  BEJUCO Aug23 Aug02 Jul21 Feb24 Feb10 (carpio erin)CHIAPPE R 122 8.00    
  (by RED VINE out of ROMAN RENEGADE by ROMAN RULER)
4  ZAMBONI WARRIOR         (kulp brando)SALGADO ANTHONY 122 8.00 9% 9.90    
  (by WARRIOR'S REWARD out of BLUE HEN HOCKEY by NOBLE'S PROMISE)
5  BOOK RUNNER Aug23 Aug02 Jul21 Jun29 May26 (salinas jose)CORA D 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MINESHAFT out of SHE'S HOT STUFF by NOT FOR LOVE)
6  NORTHERN VIRGINIA Aug23 Aug02 Jun14     (stites flin)INIRIO J 124 12.00    
  (by NORTHERN AFLEET out of RUN PATTY RUN by AISLE)
7  WILD VINE Feb08 Dec21       (stites fl)HERNANDEZ A 124 1.60 59% 0.70    
  (by RED VINE out of PRASLIN by EVEN THE SCORE)
8  ON THE CHILL Jul28 Oct07       (crook-dem)RODRIGUEZ R 122 3.50 10% 9.00    
  (by WINCHILL out of ON THE HASSLE by ORB)
 
PEN-6   09/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4K) Purse ($10K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COAST TO COAST Sep01 Aug16 Jul19 Jun28 Jun09 (sinnefia pauli)CONNER TYLER 124 4.00 11% 7.90    
2  WENTZ Dec21 Nov22 Sep19 Aug24 Jul27 (graci a)AGUILAR M 124 2.00 62% 0.60    
SCR  ECLIPTICALS ELLIOT Sep01 Aug16 Jul12 Jun20 May31 (graci kim)HERNANDEZ A 124 3.00    
4  POCOPSON STATION Sep07 Aug16 Jul13 May24 May05 (ippoli)SMITH DANIEL 114 12.00    
5  SHOWER THE PEOPLE Aug16 Jul28 Nov08 Sep15 Aug25 (salinas jose)CORA D 124 30.00    
SCR  FIRE DOWN BELOW Aug30 Mar11 Jan27 Dec27 Dec13 (albright amy)TUNON JORDANO 124 8.00    
7  JIMMY THE KID Aug16 Jul20 May28 May13 Apr15 (martin r)RODRIGUEZ E 124 10.00    
SCR  BOYS OF QUEENS Dec13 Oct26 Oct05 Sep09 Jul27 (ippolito mark)DIAZ VLADIMIR 124 5.00    
 
PEN-7   09/15/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($15.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WONDER WATER Jul29 Jul07 Jun23 Jun02 May12 (sillaman richard)CRUZ ANGEL 120 8.00    
2  SPINNING MUSICIAN Aug24 Aug10 Jul27 Jun21 May24 (beattie t)RODRIGUEZ R 122 3.00    
3  BLUEBERRY MASH Jul06 Jun15 May17 Apr26 Mar24 (stites w)CHIAPPE R 120 2.50 26% 2.90    
4  SWEEPIN HARD Aug09 Jul06 Jun15 May17 Apr26 (jacklin theod)TUNON JORDANO 120 8.00    
5  MERCURY TEN Aug30 Aug09 Jul06 Jun11 May25 (shuman mark)TOLEDO JEVIAN 118 5.00 11% 8.20    
6  CAJUN OCCASION Aug10 Jul14 Jun29 Jun15 May21 (salvaggio mark)CONNER TYLER 118 2.00 33% 2.10    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.