Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Turf Paradise
Saturday - April 22, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TUP-3   WIN (3/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/2)-(3/2/1) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (3/2)-(3/2/1)-(3/2/1) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (3/2)-(2/4) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (3/2)-(2/4)-(4/2/3) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
TUP-4   WIN (2/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/4)-(2/4) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (2/4)-(4/2/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (2/4)-(4/2/3)-(3/5) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
TUP-5   WIN (4/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/2/3)-(4/2/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/2/3)-(4/2/3)-(4/2/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/2/3)-(3/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/2/3)-(3/5)-(4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
TUP-6   WIN (3/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/5)-(3/5/2) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (3/5)-(3/5/2)-(3/5/2) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (3/5)-(4) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    PK3 (3/5)-(4)-(7/6/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
TUP-7   WIN (4) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    EXA (4)-(4/6/2) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI (4)-(4/6/2)-(4/6/2) 2 $0.50 $1.00 
    DD (4)-(7/6/5) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
    PK3 (4)-(7/6/5)-(7/2/3) 9 $0.50 $4.50 
TUP-8   WIN (7/6/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/6/5)-(7/6/5/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (7/6/5)-(7/6/5/3)-(7/6/5/3) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (7/6/5)-(7/2/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
TUP-9   WIN (7/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/2/3)-(7/2/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/2/3)-(7/2/3)-(7/2/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TUP-3   04/22/2023 3960ft DIRT RC11 FAST Joanne Dye Breeders' Oaks Purse ($60K) 3 F PT- 4:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TIZ THE PROSPECT Mar12 Jan23 Dec20     (ortiz sr)VERGARA P 122 10.00 ★    
  (by PROSPECT PARK out of TIZ MI HAINA by TIZDEJAVU)
2  ARIZONA KALEI Mar25 Feb18 Jan28 Jan07 Dec10 (eikleberry kevin)TOHILL S 122 2.00 19% 4.40    
  (by LOTSA MISCHIEF out of JACKSONVILLE by BENTON CREEK)
3  BEYOND AWESOME Mar25 Mar11 Feb26 Jan28 Jan07 (evans justin)NEGRON LUIS 122 0.80 58% 0.70    
  (by BOOS out of CAMILLE by ROCKY BAR)
4  PRINCESS JAYLEEN Mar27 Mar12 Feb20 Jan28 Jan17 (torres-casas )LARA EZEQUIEL 122 15.00    
  (by LOTSA MISCHIEF out of SPINNING STEEL by HARD SPUN)
5  UNRIVALED QUEEN Mar11 Feb26 Feb06 Jan12 Dec21 (lund valorie)LOPEZ KARLO 122 4.00    
  (by EDDINGTON out of ANGIE'S GOLD by TOUCH GOLD)
 
TUP-4   04/22/2023 3630ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($15K) Purse ($16.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DISRUPTOR MAN Apr11         (campo stacy)MORALES ALLYSSA 121 10.00    
2  JOHN'S KID Apr11 Mar29 Mar25 Mar20 Mar07 (silva pabl)NEGRON LUIS 121 1.20 41% 1.40    
3  LEFT THE BAR Apr05 Feb28 Feb07     (perren ly)VALENZUELA A 115 3.00    
4  THIRSTY TIGER Mar19 Feb18 Feb06     (grissom roberta )ZUNINO L 126 5.00 5% 18.10    
SCR  ARIZONA MADE         (campo stacy)CONNING CRYSTAL 121 4.00 27% 2.70    
 
TUP-5   04/22/2023 3630ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($15K) Purse ($16.4K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LEGAL MISCHIEF Feb25 Feb04 Jan17 Dec22 Sep17 (campo stacy)MORALES ALLYSSA 126 4.00    
2  MISCHIEF MAME Apr01 Mar12       (mcfarlane l)LOPEZ KARLO 118 1.20 23% 3.40    
3  LA DELHOMME'S SHOW         (zimmerman)VALENZUELA A 126 5.00 9% 9.80    
4  ROCKSIE HARTBRAKER Apr12 Mar28 Feb24 Feb15   (mccartney jack)ZUNINO L 126 2.00 46% 1.20    
5  WEST COAST ANDY Apr12 Apr01 Mar12 Feb25 Feb11 (torres)BERRIOS-LOPEZ DAYLOR 116 6.00    
 
TUP-6   04/22/2023 5610ft DIRT RC11 FAST Gene Fleming Breeders' Derby Purse ($60K) 3 ALL PT- 6:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  THRILL TOWN Apr10 Mar25       (mccartney jack)ZUNINO L 120 10.00    
  (by JERSEY TOWN out of THRILL ME NOW by FABULOUS CHAMP)
2  PANZER PRIDE Mar20 Feb20 Dec10 Nov12 Sep19 (eikleberry ke)ARBOLEDA ALDO 124 5.00 ★    
  (by TIZ A MINISTER out of PROSPECTING PEG by FUSAICHI PEGASUS)
3  ARIZONA ANDREW Mar25 Mar11 Feb18 Jan28 Dec10 (eikleberry kevin)TOHILL S 124 0.60 57% 0.70    
  (by LOTSA MISCHIEF out of TOPPISME by SAINT BALLADO)
SCR  ARIZONA STEPHEN Nov15 Oct04 Aug30     (eikleberry )MORALES ALLYSSA 124 5.00    
  (by LOTSA MISCHIEF out of SMARTY B by SMARTY JONES)
5  CHARLIE'S MAN Mar29 Mar06 Feb14 Jan28 Dec10 (alvarez sergi)LARA EZEQUIEL 124 6.00 16% 5.30    
  (by EZ EFFORT out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
 
TUP-7   04/22/2023 5610ft TURF RC11 FIRM Dwight Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MR NAVIGATOR Mar11 Feb21 Jan29 Jan15 Dec16 (silva jr)ARBOLEDA ALDO 120 3.00    
  (by UH OH BANGO out of JUNGLE GIRL by FOREST CAMP)
2  MOONLITE GRAHAM Apr12 Mar29 Feb25 Feb09 Dec14 (barraza rafael )LOPEZ KARLO 120 3.50 ★    
  (by UH OH BANGO out of SHESHIMAINTENANCE by INSTAGRAND)
3  MARICOPA COUNTY Mar06 Feb25 Dec13 May06 Apr21 (grissom roberta)CORBETT W 120 6.00    
  (by TRIBAL RULE out of BEAR'S TIGERETTE by TIGER TRAP)
4  FIRST CALL Mar21 Feb25 May03 Apr01 Mar02 (owens kory)VERGARA P 120 2.00 71% 0.40    
  (by UH OH BANGO out of MYSTERY ME by BWANA CHARLIE)
5  MR LOVE MUFFIN Apr12 Apr03 Mar07 Feb18 Feb06 (mccartney jack)ZUNINO L 120 8.00    
  (by LOTSA MISCHIEF out of CASHMERE MUFFIN by PURE PRIZE)
6  ARIZONA JEREMY Apr15 Mar25 Feb13 Feb01 Apr25 (laufenberg )HERNANDEZ HARRY 120 4.00 ★    
  (by EZ EFFORT out of GLASSFORD HILL by BENTON CREEK)
 
TUP-8   04/22/2023 3960ft DIRT RC11 FAST Lyman Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PHOENICIAN GHOST Mar19 Feb27 Mar11 Jan28   (campo stacy)CONNING CRYSTAL 120 10.00    
  (by SHAMAN GHOST out of SMILINGSUNDAE by SIGHTSEEING)
2  TACTICAL ATTACK Mar18 Mar07 Feb25 Jan28 Jan07 (sepich f)CORBETT W 120 3.50    
  (by EZ DREAMER out of HOLLYWOOD HOTTIE by CITY ZIP)
3  BRAZEN NOW Feb25 Feb04 Dec21 Oct04 Sep19 (eikleberry kevin)TOHILL S 124 4.50 ★    
  (by LOTSA MISCHIEF out of SAINT'S CROWN by TIZNOW)
4  RENEW Apr05 Mar27 Feb22 Jan10 Dec20 (oberholtzer kevi)ZUNINO L 120 12.00    
  (by TOP HIT out of DARING DRACO by ROCKY BAR)
5  ROUSING RUBBLE Mar28 Mar08 Feb06 Jan18 Jan07 (metz jeffre)HERNANDEZ HARRY 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ROUSING SERMON out of NADINE by GHAZI)
6  RAMBLIN' MAN Feb25 Jan28 Dec21 Nov04 Sep19 (owens kory)VERGARA P 124 1.80 24% 3.10    
  (by UH OH BANGO out of DOUBLE PUNCH by TWO PUNCH)
7  ANNIE'S BOY Apr03 Feb25 Feb04 Apr21 Mar11 (barraza r)VALENZUELA A 122 2.50 46% 1.20    
  (by LOTSA MISCHIEF out of AWESOME EFFORT by AWESOME AGAIN)
 
TUP-9   04/22/2023 3960ft DIRT RC11 FAST Ann Owens Distaff Purse ($60K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:59
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  J T'S LA NENA Apr10 Mar18 Mar08 Feb16 Feb04 (torres-casas al)NEGRON LUIS 120 10.00    
  (by LOTSA MISCHIEF out of SMOKY CREEK by BENTON CREEK)
2  ALBERTA SUN Mar18 Feb25 Feb04 Nov15 Aug03 (diodoro roberti)LOPEZ KARLO 120 2.50 28% 2.50    
  (by MINISTERS WILD CAT out of DRIFA by TABASCO CAT)
3  REIGN OF FIRE Apr01 Mar08 Feb18 Feb09 Jan31 (toye joe)ARBOLEDA ALDO 120 8.00 10% 8.80    
  (by VRONSKY out of RED HOT RENEE by ROAR)
4  RAGING LADY Apr03 Mar21 Mar12 Feb27 Feb09 (torres)BERRIOS-LOPEZ DAYLOR 120 20.00    
  (by TOP HIT out of ROADRAGEOUS by ADVENTURE ROAD)
SCR  BIG HEAT Feb25 Jan25 Aug20 Jul11 Apr21 (owens kory)CORBETT W 120 3.50 ★    
  (by MR. BIG out of CALIFORNIA HEAT by UNUSUAL HEAT)
6  BAKERSFIELD BABE Apr01 Mar27 Mar12 Feb25 Feb14 (simpson sha)MORALES ALLYSSA 120 20.00    
  (by LOTSA MISCHIEF out of NEWBURG by SKY MESA)
7  OUTSIDE THE LAW Feb25 Jan26 Jan08 Dec21 Nov05 (campo stacy)HERNANDEZ HARRY 122 1.00 37% 1.70    
  (by MACHO UNO out of AGAINST THE LAW by OFFICER)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.