Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Turf Paradise
Tuesday - February 14, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TUP-1   WIN (6/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/1/2)-(6/1/2/5/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/1/2)-(6/1/2/5/7)-(6/1/2/5/7) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (6/1/2)-(4/6/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/1/2)-(4/6/2)-(5/1) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
TUP-2   WIN (4/6/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/6/2)-(4/6/2/1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/6/2)-(4/6/2/1/5)-(4/6/2/1/5) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (4/6/2)-(5/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/6/2)-(5/1)-(3/7) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
TUP-3   WIN (5/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/1)-(5/1/2/6/3) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    TRI (5/1)-(5/1/2/6/3)-(5/1/2/6/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/1)-(3/7) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (5/1)-(3/7)-(2/6) 8 $0.50 $4.00 
TUP-4   WIN (3/7) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/7)-(3/7/5/6/4) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    TRI (3/7)-(3/7/5/6/4)-(3/7/5/6/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/7)-(2/6) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (3/7)-(2/6)-(6/8) 8 $0.50 $4.00 
TUP-5   WIN (2/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/6)-(2/6/4/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/6)-(2/6/4/7)-(2/6/4/7) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (2/6)-(6/8) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (2/6)-(6/8)-(10/4/1/7) 16 $0.50 $8.00 
TUP-6   WIN (6/8) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/8)-(6/8/2/5/7) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    TRI (6/8)-(6/8/2/5/7)-(6/8/2/5/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/8)-(10/4/1/7) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (6/8)-(10/4/1/7)-(6/2/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
TUP-7   WIN (10/4/1/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (10/4/1/7)-(10/4/1/7/9) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (10/4/1/7)-(10/4/1/7/9)-(10/4/1/7/9) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (10/4/1/7)-(6/2/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
TUP-8   WIN (6/2/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/2/8)-(6/2/8/5/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/2/8)-(6/2/8/5/1)-(6/2/8/5/1) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TUP-1   02/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC2 FAST Mdn Opt Clm ($30K) Purse ($20.4K) 4UP M/F PT- 2:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  I'LL TAKE THE SOUP Jan23 Dec14 Jun11     (kereluk edward)BARBER R 124 3.50 12% 7.00    
2  KNIGHT EYES Jan23         (metz jeffrey)CRUZ M 124 4.50 7% 13.00    
3  BAKERSFIELD BABE Jan30 Jan09 Nov15 Sep17 Sep04 (si)DA FAUSTO 124 8.00    
4  MINING CRYPTO Dec14 Oct21 Sep17 Sep05 Mar18 (story chad)GARCIA F 124 10.00    
5  FIRST POINT Jan23 Nov26 Nov11 Oct08 Aug20 (drysdale ne)HERNANDEZ HARRY 124 4.00 ★    
6  HIGH GUNNER Jan23 Dec14       (gleason m)MAWING A 124 2.00 55% 0.80    
7  ASK THE KING Jan09 Aug21       (lucarelli)VALENZUELA A 124 5.00 ★    
 
TUP-2   02/14/2023 4950ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($15K) Purse ($15.8K) 4UP M/F PT- 3:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MUNNINGS TALE Jan31 Jan17 Dec14 Sep17   (essex charles)CRUZ M 124 4.00 ★    
2  TWELVE STARS Jan10 Dec03 Nov12 Oct28 Oct01 (brinson clay)LOPEZ KARLO 124 6.00 12% 7.10    
3  BREAKFAST BALL Jan28 Dec22 Nov15 Sep18 Aug28 (whitehouse w)YBARRA MICHAEL 124 8.00    
4  THE GINGER QUEEN (IRE) Jan28 Jan10 Nov18 Sep17 Aug26 (evans justi)HERNANDEZ HARRY 124 2.00 34% 2.00    
5  LEMON DROP LADY Dec13 Nov01 Oct18 Mar17 Mar04 (hone bart)CORBETT W 124 5.00 ★    
6  JEWEL AZUL Sep04 Aug17 Aug04 Jun30 Jun09 (woolley benn)CONTRERAS LUIS 124 2.50 32% 2.10    
 
TUP-3   02/14/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($16.4K) 3 ALL PT- 3:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BRANDYN Jan28 Dec10 Nov15 Sep19 Aug27 (diodoro roberti)LOPEZ KARLO 121 2.00 13% 6.80    
2  MOHAMAD Jan26 Jan09 Oct29 Oct08 Sep23 (brown r)MARTI ALEXANDER 121 5.00 ★    
3  BRAYBRAY Jan09 Nov15 Oct04 Aug15   (martinez a)MAWING A 121 4.00 ★    
4  BIG JACK Feb02 Jan14 Dec08 Nov07   (martinez a)ANAYA V 121 10.00    
5  CATCHME AT THELAKE Dec27         (kenney ryan)HERNANDEZ HARRY 121 3.50 53% 0.90    
6  HARBOR THUNDER Jan14 Dec27 Dec08     (belvoir vann)VALDES ALEXIS 121 4.50 ★    
7  HADLEES HONOR Jan13 Dec09 Nov27 Nov04 Sep25 (van debbie)ZUNINO L 121 8.00    
 
TUP-4   02/14/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4K) Purse ($10.4K) 4UP M/F PT- 4:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CANTERBURY GOLD Jan14 Dec19 Nov30 Sep14 Sep01 (vanwinkle davi)LINDSAY CHAD 124 8.00    
2  AMERICAN ROYALTY Jan31 Oct16 Oct09 Sep18 Aug21 (va)MARTINEZ NAHERD 124 10.00    
3  AND I KNOW Jan14 Jan03 Dec19 Nov21 Jul17 (me)DA FAUSTO 124 1.80 59% 0.70    
4  PIPER ROSE Feb06 Jan14 Dec19 Nov04 Oct24 (woolley ben)HERNANDEZ HARRY 124 2.00 ★    
5  SHEZ A GRINDER Jan31 Jan11 Jan03 Dec21 Nov19 (nunnally jenni)ANAYA V 124 8.00 ★    
6  SEVEN POINTS Jan14 Dec17 Nov30 Oct23 Sep12 (peacock shane)ZUNINO L 124 4.00 ★    
7  FUN PADDY Jan03 Nov19 Oct07 Sep09 Aug04 (axmaker w)CRUZ M 124 10.00 18% 4.70    
 
TUP-5   02/14/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4K) Purse ($10.4K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STRAUS'S PLACE Feb04 Jan25 Jan14 Jan03 Dec10 (sa)DA FAUSTO 124 8.00    
2  PASSED BY PAUL Feb01 Jan10 Dec26 Nov04 Oct01 (hernandez mig)VALDES ALEXIS 124 4.00 25% 2.90    
3  FLY BUDDY FLY Feb06 Jan14 Dec30 Nov19 Oct28 (torres-casas alex )GARCIA F 124 12.00    
4  CHEF Jan25 Jan10 Dec10 Nov19 Sep17 (evans justin)CRUZ M 124 5.00 ★    
SCR  SHOTGUN RIDER Feb09 Jan31 Jan18 Jan04 Dec20 (evans justin)CONTRERAS LUIS 124 3.00 45% 1.20    
6  MY BOY LOLLIPOP Feb06 Jan09 Nov29 Nov07 Aug27 (sanderson)VALENZUELA A 124 10.00 6% 14.70    
7  HAVEULOSTYOURMIND Jan25 Jan05 Dec10 Nov21 Sep12 (krasner cindy)VERGARA P 124 4.50 ★    
8  RANCHER Feb02 Jan12 Dec19 Nov23 Oct02 (esquibel mark)ANAYA V 124 12.00    
9  ALPINE HYPNOSIS Jan23 Nov29 Nov16 Sep04 Aug13 (pierce michael )LOPEZ KARLO 124 6.00    
 
TUP-6   02/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4.5K) Purse ($10.4K) 4UP ALL PT- 5:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ELUSIVE LOVE Jan28 Oct16 Oct10 Mar07 Feb13 (ortiz s)ANAYA V 122 15.00    
2  FLYUNDERTHEGRAYDAR Jan28 Dec13 Nov16 Oct22 Sep24 (ortiz manue)CONNING CRYSTAL 122 1.80 ★    
3  TWO SOCKS MAC Feb05 Jan24 Oct09 Oct01 Sep24 (dennis clif)WILLIAMS AJHARI 122 20.00    
4  RIVIERA CHAMP Jan28 Dec10 Nov28 Nov09 Sep15 (bi)MARTINEZ NAHERD 122 10.00    
5  FABSTRACTION Feb04 Jan19 Jan02 Nov19 Nov08 (hernandez mig)VALDES ALEXIS 124 4.00 ★    
6  HIGH FLYIN TIGER Feb01 Jan11 Jan03 Dec14 Nov29 (evans justin)CONTRERAS LUIS 124 3.00 53% 0.90    
7  SQUARE ROOT Jan24 Jan04 Dec22 Aug06 Jul10 (gale bryce)AGUILAR DANIEL 122 12.00 ★    
8  DEMOCRAT Jan24 Jan02 Dec15 Sep10 Aug13 (peery debbi)MORALES ALLYSSA 122 6.00 25% 3.00    
9  TRACK BOUND Jan28 Dec13 Nov23 Nov05 Sep14 (alvarez serg)GARCIA ENRIQUE 122 10.00    
 
TUP-7   02/14/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4.5K) Purse ($10.4K) 4UP M/F PT- 5:52
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHAMAN'S PRODIGY Jan26 Jan12 Dec09 Nov24 Sep15 (rycroft riley)LARA EZEQUIEL 122 3.50 7% 12.90    
2  PARTY POLICE Feb01 Jan09 Nov29 Nov05 Sep17 (ke)DA FAUSTO 124 8.00    
3  LADY COMMISH Jan26 Jan02 Dec15 Nov12 Oct15 (kenney ryan)LOPEZ KARLO 122 12.00    
4  FEARLESS FACTOR Jan24 Jan04 Dec19 Aug12 Jul23 (evans justin)NEGRON LUIS 122 5.00 13% 6.60    
5  WORKIN NINETOFIVE Jan26 Jan04 Dec19 Dec01 Nov19 (gutierrez)VALENZUELA A 122 15.00    
SCR  EASY DOES IT Feb01 Jan12 Nov12 Sep10 Aug27 (gangidino lisa)ZUNINO L 122 12.00    
7  EARLYNTHEMORN Jan30 Jan04 Aug01 Jun25 May06 (o'brien debb)GARCIA ENRIQUE 122 15.00 6% 16.60    
8  TOP REFERENCES Feb01 Jan14 Dec22 Nov12 Oct10 (morgan dan)YBARRA MICHAEL 122 4.00    
9  BANDON BRIDGE Feb06 Dec19 Nov12 Oct15 Sep30 (pierce michael )VERGARA P 122 10.00 ★    
10  BACK TO BUSINESS Jan26 Jan04 Nov26 Oct19 Oct04 (vitali marc)HERNANDEZ HARRY 122 3.00 45% 1.20    
 
TUP-8   02/14/2023 5280ft DIRT RC2 FAST Mdn Opt Clm ($30K) Purse ($20.4K) 3 ALL PT- 6:21
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CHARLIE'S MAN Jan28 Dec10 Nov12 Sep18 Aug20 (alvarez serg)GARCIA ENRIQUE 121 10.00 ★    
2  WESTERBERG Jan31 Dec20 Dec08 Nov25 Nov08 (alvarez sergi)LARA EZEQUIEL 121 3.50 18% 4.70    
3  LITTLE AXE SOUL Jan18 May07 Apr13     (mccartney jack)LEON A 121 20.00    
4  ENDALE ARCH         (martinez esteban)ZUNINO L 121 4.50    
5  MONGOLIAN APPLE Jan18 Jan05       (vanwinkle davi)LINDSAY CHAD 121 4.00 ★    
6  MY SWEET LORD Jan31 Dec20 Nov25 Sep24   (diodoro roberti)LOPEZ KARLO 121 2.50 52% 0.90    
7  ANOTHERFORBROOKS Jan14 Dec27       (hone bart)HERNANDEZ HARRY 121 5.00    
8  AIR JOCK Jan05         (mc)DA FAUSTO 121 8.00 9% 9.50    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.