Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Churchill Downs
Friday - September 12, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

CD-1   WIN (7/4/1/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/4/1/5)-(7/4/1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/4/1/5)-(7/4/1/5)-(7/4/1/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/4/1/5)-(3/10/11) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/4/1/5)-(3/10/11)-(10/13/6/1/12) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-2   WIN (3/10/11) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/10/11)-(3/10/1/11) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (3/10/11)-(3/10/1/11)-(3/10/1/11) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (3/10/11)-(10/13/6/1/12) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (3/10/11)-(10/13/6/1/12)-(5/4/2/6) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-3   WIN (10/13/6/1/12) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/13/6/1/12)-(10/13/6/1/12) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/13/6/1/12)-(10/13/6/1/12)-(10/13/6/1/12) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (10/13/6/1/12)-(5/4/2/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (10/13/6/1/12)-(5/4/2/6)-(6/12/10/1/2) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-4   WIN (5/4/2/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/4/2/6)-(5/4/2/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/4/2/6)-(5/4/2/6)-(5/4/2/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/4/2/6)-(6/12/10/1/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (5/4/2/6)-(6/12/10/1/2)-(2/7/6/5) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-5   WIN (6/12/10/1/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/12/10/1/2)-(6/12/10/1/2/7) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    TRI (6/12/10/1/2)-(6/12/10/1/2/7)-(6/12/10/1/2/7) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
    DD (6/12/10/1/2)-(2/7/6/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (6/12/10/1/2)-(2/7/6/5)-(8/6/3/5) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-6   WIN (2/7/6/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/7/6/5)-(2/7/6/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/7/6/5)-(2/7/6/5)-(2/7/6/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/7/6/5)-(8/6/3/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (2/7/6/5)-(8/6/3/5)-(2/8/11/1/6) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-7   WIN (8/6/3/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/6/3/5)-(8/6/3/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/6/3/5)-(8/6/3/5)-(8/6/3/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/6/3/5)-(2/8/11/1/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (8/6/3/5)-(2/8/11/1/6)-(7/2/5/6) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-8   WIN (2/8/11/1/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/8/11/1/6)-(2/8/11/1/6/7) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    TRI (2/8/11/1/6)-(2/8/11/1/6/7)-(2/8/11/1/6/7) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
    DD (2/8/11/1/6)-(7/2/5/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (2/8/11/1/6)-(7/2/5/6)-(2/8/7) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-9   WIN (7/2/5/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/2/5/6)-(7/2/5/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/2/5/6)-(7/2/5/6)-(7/2/5/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/2/5/6)-(2/8/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CD-10   WIN (2/8/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/8/7)-(2/11/8/6/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/8/7)-(2/11/8/6/7)-(2/11/8/6/7) 36 $0.50 $18.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
CD-1   09/12/2025 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($62K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
EYES OF GOLD Nov09 Sep20 Aug24 Jul22 Apr13 (sims p)MACHADO LUAN 122 12.00 11% 7.90    
MANAGE XPECTATIONS Aug16 Jun19 May25 Mar20 Feb23 (mcgee paul)HERNANDEZ J 118 2.50    
TWIRLING GOOD TIME Aug26 Aug01 Apr18 Mar08 Jul29 (bauer philip )CANNON DECLAN 122 3.00    
SUPER COSTLY Jul03 May01 Apr18 Mar30 Oct12 (brisset ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00 26% 2.80    
HAND IT OVER Jul21 Jun19 Apr29 Mar20 Feb28 (walsh rya)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
BEACH BUNNY Aug16 Jul03 Jun11 Apr26 Apr10 (habeeb donald)MORALES EDGAR 122 3.50    
MUSTANG LADY Aug16 Jul03 Apr11 Feb22 Jan23 (newton troy)TORRES A 122 6.00 30% 2.30    
 
CD-2   09/12/2025 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($45K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SUTHERLAND Jul05 Jun12 May10 Mar08 Jan24 (richard chris)MORALES EDGAR 121 4.00    
SCR  J J'S JOKER Jul25 Jul17 Jun28 May25 May10 (kantarmaci mertka)SAEZ LUIS 121 12.00    
LEND IT TEWMEY Aug22 Jul05 Jun04 May02 Mar14 (foster eri)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00 55% 0.80    
W W CRAZY Aug22 Jul13 Jun05 May16 Apr24 (calhoun willia)ORTIZ L 121 4.50    
SCR  KUNSHAN BRIDGE Aug19 Jul06 Jun14 May16 May03 (kantarmaci me)ORTIZ JR 121 5.00    
ORB OF THE BORO Jul10 Jun24 Jun16 May29 May05 (vaughn terry)CANUTO THIAGO 121 20.00    
GO WEST Jul26 Jul04 May02 Apr24 Apr06 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 8.00    
BORN FLAWLESS Jul06 Jun18 May29 May02 Apr19 (vance d)LANERIE J 121 15.00    
SCR  ALEJANDRO Aug23 Jul20 Jul06 Jun06 Jun17 (cash norman)GUTIERREZ MARIO 121 15.00    
10  J J'S RANGER Aug14 Jul02 Jun17 Apr18 Mar21 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 121 12.00 7% 13.00    
11  PENROD Aug01 Jun12 May22 Apr30 Mar28 (moquett rona)TORRES A 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-3   09/12/2025 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($67K) 2 F PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SUPER PACHI Aug23 Jun18 Jun05 May15 Apr23 (anderson cori)CANUTO THIAGO 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
STRING MUSIC         (beckman wh)GEROUX FLORENT 119 12.00    
BRUNIA         (schultz lindsa)CEDILLO ABEL 119 15.00    
BEE TOO SWEET Aug23         (cash norman)GUTIERREZ MARIO 119 15.00    
SCR  DRAGON NAVY Aug17 Jun18 Apr06     (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 119 4.00    
STARLIT NITE Aug11         (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.50 10% 8.60    
SCR  EASY KISS         (asmussen steve)ORTIZ L 119 8.00    
KITTEN GLOVES Aug03         (hartman chris)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00    
MISS ROSSO         (foster eric)BARBOSA CARLOS 119 15.00    
10  HIGHLIGHT SHOW Aug18         (cox h)ORTIZ JR 119 3.50 35% 1.80    
11  THOUSAND M P H         (stewart da)ASMUSSEN J 119 15.00    
12  AUTHENTIC ANGEL Aug31 Aug03 Jul04 Jun21   (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
13  DIVA CALLING Apr25         (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 119 4.00 33% 2.00    
 
CD-4   09/12/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($58K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PARTYVICIOUS Aug21 Jul31 Jul09 Jun24 May25 (gonzalez r)ANDERSON MCKENNA 121 20.00    
BURLSWORTH Aug18 Jul09 May03 Mar30 Mar01 (moquett rona)TORRES A 121 8.00 10% 8.60    
BEEZER Aug02 Jul12 Jun18 Jun04 Apr30 (williamson b)BARBOSA CARLOS 121 4.00    
KILLJOY Aug02 Apr06 Mar22 Feb21 Jan04 (foster eri)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50 23% 3.40    
PATTON'S TIZZY Apr28 Apr06 Mar17 Feb19 Jan12 (cox h)ORTIZ JR 121 3.50 41% 1.40    
PRIORITY LANE Aug01 Jul03 Jun14 Jun06 May11 (ramirez-r)TORRES A 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  TIVERTON (GB) Sep06 Aug27 Aug18 Aug13 Aug01 (cunningham j)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 4.50    
FLOTATION STATION Aug01 Jul03 Jun21 May24 Nov10 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 121 8.00    
 
CD-5   09/12/2025 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
URGENCY         (casse mark)MACHADO LUAN 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by KNICKS GO out of JANETSTICKETTOCATS by STORM CAT)
OUR FOREFATHERS         (eurton peter)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of VIA VERITAS by STREET SENSE)
SPIRIT OF A WALKON Aug08         (romans dale)LANERIE J 119 20.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of DELTA'S KINGDOM by ANIMAL KINGDOM)
CANTERVILLE         (danner kels)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 20.00    
  (by KANTHAROS out of ALL GIRL by UNITE)
TIZ AUTHORITY         (hartman chris)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00    
  (by TIZ THE LAW out of DICTATE COOL by CURLIN)
TIME FOR MUSIC Aug23         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 4.50 32% 2.10    
  (by GILDED TIME out of LA DI DA LA DI DA by KEY TO CONTENT)
TROUBLE CALLING         (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 10.00    
  (by DIALED IN out of INTO TROUBLE by INTO MISCHIEF)
SPUN D M C         (morse l)ELLIOTT JANE 119 10.00    
  (by SPUN TO RUN out of CRITIC'S CHOICE by SMART STRIKE)
HELPFUL HOWIE Aug08         (shirer matt )BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 20.00    
  (by MIDSHIPMAN out of WORLDLY HEIRESS by WILDCAT HEIR)
10  STIRRING WORDS         (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 119 4.00 21% 3.80    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of BIXBY LOU by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
SCR  CONFESSIONAL         (cox h)ORTIZ JR 119 6.00    
  (by HOLY BULL out of SPEEDY VANESSA by AMERICAN PHAROAH)
12  CIRCLE TAP Aug08         (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.50 27% 2.70    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of RATTATAPTAP by TAPIT)
13  RING CURL         (wismer gl)DETTORI LANFRANCO 119 15.00    
  (by CURLIN out of SOUTHERN RING by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
 
CD-6   09/12/2025 5280ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($30K) Purse ($62K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  RAISING KANE Aug13 Jul26 Jul01 Jun15 Jun01 (desormeaux ke)LANERIE J 118 15.00    
LAUGHNOWCRYLATER Aug09 Jun21 Nov28 Oct07 Sep05 (mccarthy micha)ORTIZ L 122 3.00 34% 1.90    
OVERSTATEMENT Aug17 Aug02 Feb08 Jan17 Dec28 (miller kenny)MACHADO LUAN 122 3.50    
EXCEL CALCULATOR Jul24 Apr27 Apr06 Mar14 Jan23 (jacobson d)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 5.00    
COMPLEX MUSIC Aug18 Jun27 May18 Apr23 Jan26 (shaffer e)JUAREZ NIK 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
MINTASTIC Jul06 Jun22 May24 May04 Apr18 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 118 12.00 7% 13.40    
STELLAR VINO Jul29 Jun26 May22 May03 Mar28 (cunningham s)BARBOSA CARLOS 122 8.00 21% 3.80    
EVENING NEWS Aug17 Jul14 May17 Apr26 Mar28 (diodoro r)TORRES A 122 4.00    
GUARDIAN Aug04 Jul14 Jun25 May30 Nov01 (foster eric)ORTIZ JR 118 6.00    
 
CD-7   09/12/2025 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 2 ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
IT TAKES A COWBOY Jul29 Jul09       (lucas t )RODRIGUEZ A 122 20.00    
NAUGHTON Aug26         (lynch e)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 10.00    
CUZIN ROSCOE Aug14         (chavez manue)BARBOSA CARLOS 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
WILDNCRAZYGUY Aug24 Jul26       (lucas ant)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 5.00    
MR. SENSEI May08 Apr18       (hernandez rey)MOJICA O 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
PAPA KEN Aug10 Jun28       (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.00 33% 2.00    
GANAAS Jul10         (mckeever andr)MORALES EDGAR 122 6.00    
JUST DEEDS Aug06         (ortiz )GRISALES DANILO 122 2.50 37% 1.70    
 
CD-8   09/12/2025 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CANDY KING         (devaux ch)TORRES A 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MASS MARKET out of JUST CALL ME CANDY by JUST THE TIME)
FUZZBUSTER Aug22         (oliver victor)CANNON DECLAN 119 5.00 40% 1.50    
  (by TIZ THE LAW out of MOANIN by MEDICEAN)
FRONTIER JUSTICE (IRE) Aug23         (heath g)GRAHAM J 119 20.00    
  (by UNBRIDLED out of CARNATION (FR) by CARWHITE)
CORONA DE ORO         (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of LEMON DE ORO by LEMON DROP KID)
MOM'S SPAGHETTI         (navarret)RODRIGUEZ A 119 12.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of FOLLOW NO ONE by UNCLE MO)
CABOURG         (d'angelo fra)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of WEST RIDING by TAPIT)
COMPLEXED         (casse mark)MACHADO LUAN 119 8.00    
  (by COMPLEXITY out of SPRING STREET by WILLIAMSTOWN)
HOLY SEVEN         (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.50 20% 4.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of ROAD TO VICTORY by QUALITY ROAD)
APOLLO ELEVEN         (casse w)ORTIZ L 119 10.00    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of MOONLIGHTANDBEAUTY by CAPOTE)
10  STABLE HERO         (morse l)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00    
  (by VEKOMA out of HUG ME TIGHT by WITH DISTINCTION)
11  INTO THE BEAST         (romans dale)ORTIZ JR 119 3.50 19% 4.20    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of WHOA NELLIE by ORB)
12  PEA RIDGE         (schultz lin)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 30.00    
  (by GAME WINNER out of SINGLET by REAL QUIET)
SCR  FUOCO VIVO         (crichton )LEPAROUX R 119 8.00    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of BEAUTIFUL LIAR by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
 
CD-9   09/12/2025 4290ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
THREE TECHNIQUE Aug10 Jul20 Jun28 Nov02 Sep28 (cook b)GEROUX FLORENT 121 6.00    
CHAMPLIN Jul20 Jun07 May01 Nov28 Nov02 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 4.50 26% 2.90    
SCR  KAVOD Jul26 May26 Mar19 Feb15 Jan18 (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 121 6.00    
NOVA RAGS Aug09 May08 May26 Mar07 Feb09 (mott william )ORTIZ JR 121 6.00    
CAT ON TIME Aug23 Aug02 Jun12 May23 May01 (jacobson david)SAEZ LUIS 123 3.50 22% 3.60    
GOLD LUCK Jun26 May16 Feb24 Jan23 Nov17 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
HARRODSBURG Jun13 May23 Apr12 Nov23 Oct30 (tomlinson mi)TORRES A 121 3.00 31% 2.20    
RYVIT Aug09 Jul20 May26 May02 Apr12 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 12.00    
 
CD-10   09/12/2025 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($57K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TRAITOUR Aug12 Jul26 Jun08 Apr04 Mar14 (leonard geor)TORRES A 120 12.00    
PACIFIC STANDARD Oct22 Sep04       (walsh brendan)MORALES EDGAR 120 3.50 70% 0.40    
EDIFICE Jul14 Jun06 Sep28     (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 5.00    
PYROMANIA Aug29 Aug08 Jul19 Jul11 May26 (desormeaux ke)LANERIE J 120 20.00    
SCR  SINATRA Aug01 Jun20 Feb13 Nov01   (moger jr)PAULY SUMMER 110 15.00    
MAGNIFICENT RAGS Aug23 Jul14 Nov14 Oct31 Sep15 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 124 3.00    
COOL ANDY Jun14 Dec28       (eurton peter)SAEZ LUIS 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
COME TO PAPA Aug08 Jun21 Jun08 May17 Mar28 (von donn)CEDILLO ABEL 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
FROSTY BEER Aug11 Jul14 Jan16 Oct27 Oct18 (matejka pavel)MACHADO LUAN 120 8.00    
10  BIG ROG Aug11 Jul14 Jun22 May30 Apr26 (king barr)LEPAROUX R 120 20.00    
11  BECK'S DREAMER Aug23 Jul20       (romans da)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 120 4.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.