Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Ellis Park
Saturday - August 16, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

ELP-1   WIN (1/5/2/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/5/2/8)-(1/5/2/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/5/2/8)-(1/5/2/8)-(1/5/2/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/5/2/8)-(6/4/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/5/2/8)-(6/4/2)-(8/4/7/6) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
ELP-2   WIN (6/4/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/4/2)-(6/4/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/4/2)-(6/4/2)-(6/4/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/4/2)-(8/4/7/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/4/2)-(8/4/7/6)-(1/10/6/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
ELP-3   WIN (8/4/7/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/4/7/6)-(8/4/7/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/4/7/6)-(8/4/7/6)-(8/4/7/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/4/7/6)-(1/10/6/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (8/4/7/6)-(1/10/6/7)-(1/2/4/7/3) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
ELP-4   WIN (1/10/6/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/10/6/7)-(1/10/6/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/10/6/7)-(1/10/6/7)-(1/10/6/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/10/6/7)-(1/2/4/7/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/10/6/7)-(1/2/4/7/3)-(5/9/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
ELP-5   WIN (1/2/4/7/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/2/4/7/3)-(1/2/4/7/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/2/4/7/3)-(1/2/4/7/3)-(1/2/4/7/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/2/4/7/3)-(5/9/6) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (1/2/4/7/3)-(5/9/6)-(7/3/6/12) 60 $0.50 $180 
ELP-6   WIN (5/9/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/9/6)-(5/9/6/8/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/9/6)-(5/9/6/8/7)-(5/9/6/8/7) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (5/9/6)-(7/3/6/12) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/9/6)-(7/3/6/12)-(8/5/6/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
ELP-7   WIN (7/3/6/12) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/3/6/12)-(7/3/8/6/12) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (7/3/6/12)-(7/3/8/6/12)-(7/3/8/6/12) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (7/3/6/12)-(8/5/6/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (7/3/6/12)-(8/5/6/7)-(2/3/8) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
ELP-8   WIN (8/5/6/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/5/6/7)-(8/5/6/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/5/6/7)-(8/5/6/7)-(8/5/6/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/5/6/7)-(2/3/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/5/6/7)-(2/3/8)-(2/1/4) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
ELP-9   WIN (2/3/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/3/8)-(2/3/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/3/8)-(2/3/8)-(2/3/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/3/8)-(2/1/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
ELP-10   WIN (2/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/1/4)-(2/1/8/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (2/1/4)-(2/1/8/4)-(2/1/8/4) 18 $0.50 $9.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
ELP-1   08/16/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($37.5K) 3UP ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WHEN SMOKEY SINGS Jul26         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 3.50 48% 1.10    
FLY J'S FUNTASTIC Jul20 Jun12 Apr23 Mar19 Jan16 (stinson will)BARBOSA CARLOS 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
CINISTER CIX Jul20 Jun21 May17 Mar08   (brisset rodo)TORRES A 119 3.00    
SKYNET Jul20 Apr26 Apr10 Mar22 Feb14 (barrett rod)GUTIERREZ MARIO 119 6.00    
RESTLESS RENEGADE Jul13 Feb15 Dec29 Nov23 Oct27 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 2.50 22% 3.50    
TOM CAT TUESDAY Jul14 Jun07 May16 Apr06 Feb14 (maker michael)MORALES EDGAR 119 4.50    
SCR  PORT PARTY Feb23         (cook devin)CANUTO THIAGO 124 30.00    
CHARLIE TOLU Jul20 Jun16 Jul05 Jun13 May24 (hancock l)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-2   08/16/2025 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
UNTAMED MOMENT         (fawkes david)LANERIE J 119 4.50    
  (by OUTWORK out of WILD MOMENT by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
RETHINK         (brown c)TORRES A 119 5.00 5% 19.00    
  (by RAVEN'S PASS out of A CHANGE OF HEART by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
SCR  ESTELLE'S DAY Jul26         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00    
  (by ASTERN out of TANGAROO by LONHRO (AUS))
QUICK TO CHARM Jul26 Nov24 Oct18     (casse mark)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 3.50 13% 6.90    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of TROPHY GIRL by TALC)
MO COMPLEX Aug23         (schultz l)LEPAROUX R 119 4.00    
  (by COMPLEXITY out of MA MO by UNCLE MO)
TAVERNA Oct12 Sep13 Aug03     (walsh brendan)MORALES EDGAR 119 2.00 61% 0.60    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of EUROPEAN UNION by SUCCESSFUL APPEAL)
 
ELP-3   08/16/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($40K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
APPEALING ADDIE Jul21 Jun20 May29 Apr27 Apr04 (morse ran)LEPAROUX R 122 6.00    
MUSICAL PRAYER Aug04 Apr04 Mar07 Feb03 Dec13 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 4.50    
MOMBAYLA Jul19 Jun20 May11 Mar07 Aug26 (tomlinson mi)TORRES A 122 4.00    
BROOKLYNN DREW Jul19 Jun18 May17 Apr19 Mar29 (contreras)ESQUIVEL VALENTIN 115 3.50 30% 2.40    
FANCY FASCINATOR Jul09 Oct31 Sep27 Jul28 Jun15 (moger jr)BEJARANO R 122 20.00    
BISA Jul10 May27 May05 Dec11 Nov24 (caramori ed)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
SWEET NOTE Jun18 May22 Mar07 Jan01 Nov30 (habeeb donald)MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00 12% 7.20    
SHE'S NO ANGEL Jul12 Jun15 May09 Mar21 Nov22 (shirer matt )BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 2.50 30% 2.30    
 
ELP-4   08/16/2025 3630ft DIRT RC2 FAST Mdn Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($44K) 2 F PT- 2:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
AMAZING AMANDA Jun29         (casse mark)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 4.00 43% 1.30    
FINAL SHIPMAN         (deville j)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00    
SCR  CREVALLA DE VIL Jul20         (casse mark)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.50    
SCR  NO ARGUMENT         (hump)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 119 20.00    
SCR  MISS ROSSO         (foster eric)BARBOSA CARLOS 119 12.00    
TIZIANNA         (pitts helen)MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
FAYE'S GOLD         (moquett rona)TORRES A 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
LISTENTOURMOTHER         (hillyard ashl)LEBRON VICTOR 119 20.00    
UNASSUMING         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 5.00    
10  SWAY HOUSE         (romans dale)LANERIE J 119 3.00 33% 2.00    
 
ELP-5   08/16/2025 5280ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($30K) Purse ($40K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MUSTANG LADY Jul03 Apr11 Feb22 Jan23 Dec26 (newton troy)MONCADA IRVING 123 4.00 32% 2.10    
MANAGE XPECTATIONS Jun19 May25 Mar20 Feb23 Jan20 (mcgee pau)LEPAROUX R 118 3.50 17% 4.90    
SCR  I'M A COOKIE LOVER Jul19 Jun27 May17 Mar13 Feb23 (kerrick lacy)LANERIE J 123 12.00 5% 19.00    
LADY BLAKE Jul03 May29 Apr16     (wojczyns)RODRIGUEZ A 118 5.00 10% 8.70    
BEACH BUNNY Jul03 Jun11 Apr26 Apr10 Jan16 (habeeb j)BEJARANO R 123 6.00    
PULA Jul03 Jun10 Apr23 Mar09 Feb16 (diodoro rob)CONCEPCION AXEL 123 4.50    
FROSTED KISSES Jul03 May29 Nov30 Nov10   (west w)TORRES A 118 8.00 10% 9.20    
PRINCESS BUTTERCUP Jul03 Apr18 Mar19 Jan09 Oct24 (shaffer sarah )ELLIOTT JANE 123 12.00    
PURRING Jul21 Jul03 May29 Mar09 Sep11 (deville j)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 15.00    
 
ELP-6   08/16/2025 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($45K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  COUNTTHEBRAVE Jul03 May26 Mar22 Feb21 Dec21 (jacobson davi)MORALES EDGAR 118 3.50    
STRUMMIN Jul03 May17 Oct12 Sep14 Aug26 (hancock john )LEBRON VICTOR 118 12.00    
EXPRESS LINE (FR) Jun21 May16 Apr18 Jun08 Jan15 (forster gran)TORRES A 123 8.00    
SPURGEON Jun01 Apr23 Mar29 Feb15 Jan17 (moger jr)GUTIERREZ MARIO 118 5.00    
GOOD MONEY Jun27 May23 Mar22 Feb22 Jan19 (colebrook ben)GRAHAM J 123 4.00 32% 2.10    
GOOGOL JOKE Jul06 Jun04 May26 May01 Jan19 (medina robert)LANERIE J 123 8.00 11% 8.20    
IRON SHARPENS IRON Jul14 Jul06 May29 May02 Apr19 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00    
ANTHONIAN Jul14 Jun28 Jun08 Mar01 Jan25 (morse ran)LEPAROUX R 123 8.00    
ARMY HERO Jul26 Jun26 May22 Apr10 Mar05 (manley steve)BEJARANO R 123 8.00 28% 2.50    
SCR  FARM TEAM Jul26 Jun15 May10 Apr11 Mar05 (jacobson )CAMACHO JR 123 12.00    
 
ELP-7   08/16/2025 5280ft TURF RC2 FIRM Mdn Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($44K) 2 F PT- 3:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  RATHER LATE Jul05 Jun11 May15     (hancock )RODRIGUEZ A 119 20.00    
SPASTIC BID Jul04 Jun21       (jazdzewsk)LEPAROUX R 119 30.00    
ALTA AVENUE         (cox h)MORALES EDGAR 119 3.50 26% 2.80    
G G DARLING         (brisset rodo)BARBOSA CARLOS 119 6.00    
SCR  FROSTY FOR EVER         (blair jorda)GUTIERREZ MARIO 119 12.00    
CLASSIC GLIDE         (medina robert)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
I'VE GOT THE HONEY Jul20         (casse mark)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 3.00 47% 1.10    
TEARIN'UP MY HEART Jul05         (cox h)TORRES A 119 5.00    
BROADWAY MUSICAL         (o'dwyer jere)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 8.00    
10  MY SECRET DREAMS Jul12         (ennis john)BEJARANO R 119 12.00    
11  GIVEMETHEBEAT Jul12 Jun18 Apr30 Apr06   (hancock jo)ANDERSON MCKENNA 119 20.00    
12  SCREECHED IN         (kerrick lacy)LANERIE J 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-8   08/16/2025 5940ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($32K) Purse ($46.25K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BACKGROUND Aug12 Mar08 Feb08 Nov28 Nov20 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 6.00    
SCR  RUNWITHHEART Jul19 Jun25 May11 Apr08 Aug25 (holsapple hutch)EMIGH A 122 15.00    
PIKE PLACE Jul17 Jun11 May25 Apr11 Mar15 (van t)HERNANDEZ J 124 6.00    
ONTHESTAGE Jul20 Apr12 Mar16 Feb16 Jan18 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 122 6.00    
EASTSIDE COOL Jun20 May16 Apr11 Mar08 Feb08 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 122 6.00 16% 5.40    
WHAT'S UP DOC Jul20 Mar23 Feb14 Jan24 Dec13 (mott riley)TORRES A 122 6.00 13% 6.80    
WINSTON WOLF Jun25 Jun06 May23 Apr13 Feb13 (von donn)ROCCO S 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
HEY BOSS Jul19 Jun20 Jun05 May03 Mar15 (amoss m)GRAHAM J 124 2.50 45% 1.20    
HAYES STRIKE Jul20 Jul03 Jun14 Apr11 Mar23 (ramirez-rod)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 8.00    
 
ELP-9   08/16/2025 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($102K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
VINO TIEMPO Jun26 May31 May17 Apr26 Mar30 (vance d)LANERIE J 118 6.00    
LEMON ZEST Jun29 May17       (cox h)TORRES A 118 1.60 38% 1.60    
ESPECIALLY Jul06 May31 Apr06 Feb20 Dec28 (devaux cher)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 5.00 32% 2.10    
SERAPHIA Apr26 Mar30 Mar09 Dec26 Nov23 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 118 6.00    
SCR  BELLE OFTHE DANCE Jul11 Jun17       (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 15.00    
SCR  SHARP SMILE Mar01 Jan18 Nov21 Oct13 Jul21 (cox h)MORALES EDGAR 118 4.50    
SCR  COLONIAL ROSE Jul27 Jun13 Apr23 Mar06 Dec26 (casse nor)LEPAROUX R 123 10.00    
UNION MIST Jul04 Nov13 Oct17 Sep14 Jun28 (walsh bren)HERNANDEZ J 123 8.00 6% 15.70    
 
ELP-10   08/16/2025 5610ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($16K) Purse ($35K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FOUNTAIN RUN Jul29 Jul11 Jun04 May26 Apr11 (meah m)DOYLE SOPHIE 120 12.00 22% 3.60    
ATLANTIC DANCER Jul26 Jun26 Mar14 Jan26 Nov20 (cook b)BEJARANO R 123 2.00 48% 1.10    
SPUNS SON Jul25 Jun28 May28 Mar11 Jan01 (hill f)GUTIERREZ MARIO 123 20.00    
GHOST PRINCE Jul30 Jul04 Jun20 May15 Apr29 (quartarolo a)BARBOSA CARLOS 123 8.00 5% 19.00    
MAN OF QUALITY Jul22 Jul15 Jun17 Oct23 Sep26 (martin dawn)GRAHAM J 118 30.00    
SCR  CHARBON Aug01 Jul06 Mar28 Mar01 Jan05 (deville carl )MORALES EDGAR 123 15.00    
SAGITTARIUS Jul04 May16 Apr17 Mar21 Feb02 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 123 4.50    
CATALINA CRUSH Jul11 May30 May01 Aug25 Jul25 (williams matt)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 4.00    
ODORICO Aug01 Jun07 May21 May07 Apr15 (caramori ed)CONCEPCION AXEL 123 15.00    
SCR  POLAR BEAR PLUNGE Feb12 Jan29 Dec27 Nov13 Sep20 (hiles a)TORRES A 123 5.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.