Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Turf Paradise
Saturday - February 11, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TUP-1   WIN (2) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    EXA (2)-(2/3/6/1) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
    TRI (2)-(2/3/6/1)-(2/3/6/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2)-(6/1/4) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
    PK3 (2)-(6/1/4)-(4/6/2) 9 $0.50 $4.50 
TUP-2   WIN (6/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/1/4)-(6/1/4/3/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/1/4)-(6/1/4/3/5)-(6/1/4/3/5) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (6/1/4)-(4/6/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/1/4)-(4/6/2)-(3/4/7) 27 $0.50 $13.50 
TUP-3   WIN (4/6/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/6/2)-(4/6/2/1/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/6/2)-(4/6/2/1/3)-(4/6/2/1/3) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (4/6/2)-(3/4/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/6/2)-(3/4/7)-(5) 9 $0.50 $4.50 
TUP-4   WIN (3/4/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/4/7)-(3/4/7/2/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/4/7)-(3/4/7/2/6)-(3/4/7/2/6) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (3/4/7)-(5) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
    PK3 (3/4/7)-(5)-(6/7/5) 9 $0.50 $4.50 
TUP-5   WIN (5) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    EXA (5)-(5/4/3/6/1) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (5)-(5/4/3/6/1)-(5/4/3/6/1) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (5)-(6/7/5) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
    PK3 (5)-(6/7/5)-(7/9/4) 9 $0.50 $4.50 
TUP-6   WIN (6/7/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/7/5)-(6/7/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/7/5)-(6/7/5)-(6/7/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/7/5)-(7/9/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/7/5)-(7/9/4)-(5/9/2/7/6) 45 $0.50 $22.50 
TUP-7   WIN (7/9/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/9/4)-(7/9/1/4/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/9/4)-(7/9/1/4/6)-(7/9/1/4/6) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (7/9/4)-(5/9/2/7/6) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
TUP-8   WIN (5/9/2/7/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/9/2/7/6)-(5/9/2/7/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/9/2/7/6)-(5/9/2/7/6)-(5/9/2/7/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TUP-1   02/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8.5K) Purse ($12.4K) 4UP M/F PT- 2:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FLASH FLOOD Jan04 Dec13 Aug27 Aug20 Jul31 (asprino alfr)SARMIENTO RIGO 122 5.00 ★    
2  YOUONLYLIVETWICE Jan17 Jan04 Nov29 Nov15 Oct08 (metz jeffrey)MAWING A 124 4.00 72% 0.40    
3  SMILING THUNDER Jan24 Jan04 Dec20 Nov25 Nov07 (evans jus)GONZALEZ SANTIAGO 122 3.50 ★    
4  QUEENS RANSOM Jan26 Jan11 Dec26 Dec10 Nov26 (johnston ki)WILLIAMS AJHARI 122 6.00    
SCR  SHE LOVES KARAOKE Feb06 Nov24 Nov04 Oct10 Sep18 (silva jose )HERNANDEZ HARRY 122 2.00 ★    
6  APART OF MY CHARM Jan24 Jan11 Dec15 Nov30 Nov05 (asprino alf)CONNING CRYSTAL 122 3.00 ★    
 
TUP-2   02/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8.5K) Purse ($12K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DOUBLE PERFECTION Jan19         (kereluk edward)MAWING A 124 2.50 26% 2.90    
2  ATTORNEY LOUIS Jan24 Jan07 Dec17 Nov30 Sep17 (toye joe)ANAYA V 124 10.00    
3  LEAD OFF Jan24 Sep27 Sep13 Jul16 Jun19 (ferguson curt)CRUZ M 124 5.00 ★    
4  STAN THE HOT MAN Nov12 Oct29 Oct16 Sep09 Jul29 (torres-casas alex )GARCIA F 124 8.00 12% 7.60    
5  SILVER KING BAIN Jan19 Jan10 Dec20 Dec08 Sep18 (mccartney j)HERNANDEZ HARRY 124 4.00 ★    
6  MISCHIEVOUSHOLIDAY Jan19 Jan02 Dec22 Nov25 Sep05 (alvarez s)VALENZUELA A 124 1.60 34% 2.00    
 
TUP-3   02/11/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($15K) Purse ($15.8K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PARTYOFSIXTEEN May02 Apr13 Mar24 Feb06 Jan15 (barraza ra)CRUZ M 124 4.00 ★    
2  RAPPORT Jan28         (barraza rafael )VERGARA P 124 3.50 10% 8.50    
3  RANTANEN May01 Mar25       (fales mat)VALENZUELA A 124 2.50 ★    
4  BESAME MUCHO Jan12 Dec20 Nov09 Aug18 Jun19 (troiani nic)HERNANDEZ HARRY 124 3.00 44% 1.30    
5  HEY JASPER Dec22 Oct30 Sep18 Sep04 Aug13 (buffalo marvin)MAWING A 124 8.00    
6  RUSTY RED Jan17         (martinez este)LARA EZEQUIEL 124 4.00 19% 4.40    
 
TUP-4   02/11/2023 5280ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($20K) Purse ($23.4K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:53
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  YOU'RE THE CAUSE Jan30 Oct16 Sep09 Aug14 Jul22 (van debbi)LOPEZ KARLO 122 8.00    
2  NORTHCUT Jan25 Dec27 Dec01 Sep17 Aug25 (silva jr)ARBOLEDA ALDO 122 6.00 ★    
3  BAROSSA Jan23 Jan09 Jun12 May18 Apr08 (hernandez migue)LEON A 122 4.00 59% 0.70    
4  NO SLO MO Jan25 Jan07 Dec15 Oct26 Oct09 (belvoir vann)ZUNINO L 122 4.50 13% 6.60    
5  NEXT JOURNEY Jan20 Dec02 Sep15 Jul13 Jun22 (evans justin)NEGRON LUIS 122 5.00    
6  HEIR (FR) Jan25 Dec01 Mar28 Mar07 Jan28 (belvoir van)HERNANDEZ HARRY 122 6.00 ★    
7  CITY AT NIGHT Jan25 Apr04 Feb27 Jan30 Jan17 (hone bart)CORBETT W 122 3.00 6% 14.80    
8  SENSEMAKER Dec20 Nov08 Oct01 Sep04 Jun25 (ortiz sr)VERGARA P 122 10.00    
 
TUP-5   02/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4.5K) Purse ($9.9K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NAVY PIER Aug10 Jul25 Jul05 Jun15 Jun06 (chamberlin ti)ARBOLEDA ALDO 124 5.00 ★    
2  TRINNI VALANTINE Sep02 Aug20 May07 Apr27 Apr08 (fearon johnathon)MAWING A 124 8.00    
3  SILENT DECLARATION Jan23 Dec19 Nov30 Nov08 Sep02 (pierce michael )CRUZ M 124 2.00 ★    
4  INSTIGATE Jan19 Dec22 Nov28 Oct15 Sep09 (barraza r)ANAYA V 124 3.00 ★    
5  BALI STAR Jan05 Nov14 Sep23 Sep11 Aug27 (breashear bill)CORBETT W 124 2.50 78% 0.30    
6  IMISSBAYMEADOWS Jan18 Dec08 Nov04 Sep09 Aug27 (fearon johna)SARMIENTO RIGO 124 10.00 ★    
 
TUP-6   02/11/2023 5280ft TURF RC11 FIRM nongraded Stake Purse ($60K) 4UP M/F PT- 4:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LEXINGTON HUMOR Dec31 Nov19 Oct29 Aug27 Aug06 (morgan dan)VERGARA P 124 6.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of LEXINGTON PEARL by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
SCR  LA CASTIGLIONE Jan23 Nov26 Nov05 Sep05 Aug15 (gutierrez jua)LEAHEY HANNAH 124 3.00 31% 2.30    
  (by UNCLE LINO out of PERVERSE by DISTORTED HUMOR)
3  LOOKIN SO LUCKY Jan28 Aug14 Jul30 Jul10 Jun19 (silva jr)ARBOLEDA ALDO 122 10.00    
  (by LOOKIN AT LUCKY out of SO WISTFULLEE by KRIS S.)
4  MISS HARD KNOCKS Jan23 Jan09 Dec21 Nov23 Nov13 (hernandez m)MORALES ALLYSSA 124 12.00    
  (by MR SPEAKER out of MISS HISSY FIT by ALDEBARAN)
5  U DID IT Jan26 Sep10 Aug20 Aug01 Jul03 (diodoro roberti)LOPEZ KARLO 124 8.00 11% 8.40    
  (by TEIDE out of ARCHITECTURE by ARCH)
6  YANKEE DOLLAR Jan09 Dec13 Nov29 Nov07 Sep30 (vitali marc)HERNANDEZ HARRY 120 4.00 23% 3.40    
  (by CALIFORNIA CHROME out of RED NECK SONG by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
7  LADY COMMISSIONER Jan23 Jan09 Dec15 Nov26 Nov09 (hernandez mig)VALDES ALEXIS 120 5.00 12% 7.30    
  (by COMMISSIONER out of MARCO GROOM by MARCO BAY)
8  TIZ A MACHO GIRL Jan23 Jan09 Nov26 Nov09 Oct16 (metz jeffrey)CRUZ M 124 6.00    
  (by MUCHO MACHO MAN out of COURTIZANNA by TIZNOW)
SCR  HAPPY HAPPY HAPPY Jan31 Jan18 Dec14 Nov30 Nov14 (christian bi)GARCIA ENRIQUE 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by REVOLUTIONARY out of PADEN AFFAIR by ROCKPORT HARBOR)
10  STREET SHADOW Jan28 Jan11 Dec13 Nov14 Sep05 (lucarelli frank)MAWING A 120 8.00    
  (by THE FACTOR out of STREET CREW by STREET CRY (IRE))
 
TUP-7   02/11/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4K) Purse ($10.4K) 4UP ALL PT- 5:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SINGANDCRYINDUBAI Jan10 Dec19 Dec01 Nov21 Sep28 (brown jared)MAWING A 124 3.00 ★    
2  LOST THE MINISTER Jan14 Dec26 Dec13 Apr02 Mar05 (crotts ja)VALENZUELA A 124 15.00    
3  ARIMONY Jan30 Jan12 Nov30 Aug24 Aug06 (torres-casa)WILLIAMS AJHARI 124 4.50    
4  UNCLE FLOYD Jan24 Jan12 Dec20 Dec10 Nov19 (william)BIRDRATTLER RICHARD 124 20.00 5% 17.40    
5  STARZAN Jan14 Dec26 Nov19 Nov09 Sep11 (baze robert)CRUZ M 124 6.00    
6  MO GEE Jan18 Dec26 Dec13 Nov15 Sep18 (matt wendel)HERNANDEZ HARRY 124 3.50 ★    
7  HERBIE Jan14 Dec15 Nov15 Jul16 Jun16 (sanderson bru)VALDES ALEXIS 124 5.00 50% 1.00    
SCR  BOURBON TAN Feb01 Jan12 Dec15 Nov16 Nov05 (perkinson cc)SARMIENTO RIGO 124 12.00    
9  CREST DRIVE Jan24 Dec10 Nov19 Nov09 Sep17 (ba)MARTINEZ NAHERD 124 10.00 12% 7.00    
 
TUP-8   02/11/2023 5280ft TURF RC11 FIRM nongraded Stake Purse ($60K) 4UP ALL PT- 5:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TARTINI Jan23 Jan03 Dec19 Nov26 Nov08 (hernandez mig)VALDES ALEXIS 122 10.00    
  (by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY out of VIGNETTE by DIESIS (GB))
2  COASTAL KID Jan23 Jan10 Dec21 Nov26 Nov04 (metz jeffrey)CRUZ M 120 5.00 12% 7.20    
  (by COAST GUARD out of CREME by SOMERSHAM)
3  BRIX Jan25 Dec20 Nov27 Nov06 Oct10 (silva jr)ARBOLEDA ALDO 120 6.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of KOUKLA by OUR EMBLEM)
4  SONNY SMACK Jan12 Dec19 Dec08 Sep07 Aug13 (lund valorie)ZUNINO L 122 15.00    
  (by SUCCESSFUL APPEAL out of SMACK MADAM by VICTORY GALLOP)
5  PERFECT DUDE Jan23 Dec13 Nov04 Aug13 Jul09 (belvoir van)HERNANDEZ HARRY 122 3.00 42% 1.40    
  (by MAJESTICPERFECTION out of GADGET QUEEN by FLYING WITH EAGLES)
6  ZESTFUL Jan23 Jan03 Nov22 Oct31 Sep24 (evans jus)GONZALEZ SANTIAGO 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of SWEET RELISH by SMOKE GLACKEN)
7  STITZY Jan12 Dec19 Nov26 Nov08 Sep10 (silva jr)LOPEZ KARLO 124 4.50 6% 15.10    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of MY BELONGING by BELONG TO ME)
8  MY INDY Jan12 Dec19 Nov26 Sep07 Aug13 (vanwinkle davi)LINDSAY CHAD 124 15.00    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of E. T. INDY by A.P. INDY)
9  MUCHO DEL ORO Mar11 Feb05 Jan17     (cerin vladimir)CORBETT W 124 3.50 15% 5.60    
  (by MUCHO MACHO MAN out of REPETA by BROKEN VOW)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.