Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Thistledown
Wednesday - April 30, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TDN-1   WIN (6/4/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/4/7)-(6/4/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/4/7)-(6/4/7)-(6/4/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/4/7)-(1/7/8/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/4/7)-(1/7/8/6)-(6/2/5) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
TDN-2   WIN (1/7/8/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/7/8/6)-(1/7/8/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/7/8/6)-(1/7/8/6)-(1/7/8/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/7/8/6)-(6/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/7/8/6)-(6/2/5)-(1/5/3) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
TDN-3   WIN (6/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/2/5)-(6/2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/2/5)-(6/2/5)-(6/2/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/2/5)-(1/5/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/2/5)-(1/5/3)-(3/1/4) 27 $0.50 $13.50 
TDN-4   WIN (1/5/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/5/3)-(1/5/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/5/3)-(1/5/3)-(1/5/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/5/3)-(3/1/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/5/3)-(3/1/4)-(5/7/4) 27 $0.50 $13.50 
TDN-5   WIN (3/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/1/4)-(3/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/1/4)-(3/1/4)-(3/1/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/1/4)-(5/7/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/1/4)-(5/7/4)-(6/2/8) 27 $0.50 $13.50 
TDN-6   WIN (5/7/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/7/4)-(5/7/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/7/4)-(5/7/4)-(5/7/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/7/4)-(6/2/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/7/4)-(6/2/8)-(6/3/7/9) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
TDN-7   WIN (6/2/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/2/8)-(6/2/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/2/8)-(6/2/8)-(6/2/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/2/8)-(6/3/7/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
TDN-8   WIN (6/3/7/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/3/7/9)-(6/3/7/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/3/7/9)-(6/3/7/9)-(6/3/7/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TDN-1   04/30/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($21.9K) 3UP ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MUTINY Apr10 Mar22 Aug12 Jul31 Jul09 (bailey ricardo)HOUGHTON D 123 8.00    
SCR  DARK VADER Mar31 Mar03 Feb10 Dec11 Oct26 (zielinski ric)BRACHO A 119 3.00    
SCR  PARTY POOPER Apr08 Mar24 Mar04 Feb08 Dec12 (hamm timothy)BOWEN ROCCO 123 4.50    
4  SUSIE'S KID Jun04 May15 Oct24 Oct06 Sep13 (rettele rich)TAVARES JAVIER 119 10.00 21% 3.70    
5  MO DONT NO Oct03 Sep10 Aug20 Jul30 Jul02 (radosevich je)BARBARAN ERIK 119 2.50    
6  QUIET AMIGO Mar30 Mar11 Feb10 Jan13 Nov18 (zielinski )CHAVEZ ALEXANDER 119 6.00 22% 3.70    
7  IT'SGOODTOBESEEN Mar30 Mar11 Feb10 Jan13 Nov18 (tumblin andrew)PEREZ A 119 12.00 11% 8.40    
8  SAMMY'S SMILE Oct03 Sep10 Aug20 Jul29 Jul15 (radosevich jeff)RIVERA R 119 6.00    
 
TDN-2   04/30/2025 3630ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($35.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OVID Nov13         (wolochuk dav)KEISER CHELSEY 115 2.00 47% 1.10    
2  SOL OF VAQUERO Apr10 Mar13 Dec10 Nov11 Oct07 (campbell ant)GONZALEZ KEVIN 119 15.00    
3  WHY KENNY WHY Mar27 Feb26 Feb08 Jan27 Jan07 (casalinova tina)VIGIL NOEL 119 15.00    
4  STRIKE PLATE Apr10 Mar13 Feb26 Feb11 Jan27 (langley josh)TAVARES JAVIER 119 5.00    
5  MOONSHINE JOE Apr10 Mar27 Mar13 Feb26 Feb11 (r)RODRIGUEZ SAMUEL 119 8.00    
SCR  MR. REDLEGS Oct19 Sep22 Jul22 Jun30 Jun16 (evans michae)ARAGON ROLANDO 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  SMOKIN JOE Apr10 Sep20 Jul22 Jul03   (rone mike)RIVERA R 115 3.00 20% 4.10    
8  SOULLESS Apr10 Mar13 May21 Apr22   (radosevich je)BRACHO A 119 4.00 7% 13.70    
 
TDN-3   04/30/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($14K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TIME THE AVENGER Apr01 Mar25 Mar13 Aug31 Apr29 (rivera nestor )DIAZ I 119 1.80    
2  CAPTURE MI Apr01 Mar17 Feb26 Feb08 Jan28 (vlaun manu)CHAVEZ ALEXANDER 119 3.50 14% 6.20    
3  EL BANDIDO Mar25 Mar06 Feb26 Feb13 Jan28 (genovese richard)VIGIL NOEL 119 20.00    
4  BANG A RANG Apr05 Mar20 Feb23 Jan25 Jan11 (hamm timothy)BOWEN ROCCO 123 4.00    
5  CLOAK AND DAGGER Feb26 Feb12 Jan23 Dec12 Nov07 (skerrett jeff)BARBARAN ERIK 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
6  RUN FOR REAGAN Feb08 Jan13 Dec28 Dec10 Nov27 (maddox racha)GONZALEZ KEVIN 119 2.50 51% 1.00    
 
TDN-4   04/30/2025 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($33.9K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STRING OCTET Nov14         (wolochuk dav)KEISER CHELSEY 119 1.60 38% 1.60    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of TO BE DETERMINED by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
2  FINALLY FRIDAY Apr02         (crumley je)CHAVEZ ALEXANDER 119 15.00    
  (by HONEST MISCHIEF out of BROOKLYN BITES by GRAYDAR)
3  MOR STORMY Mar30 Mar13 Oct29 Oct10 Aug28 (cline ro)FERNANDEZ R 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MOR SPIRIT out of STORMY JUSTICE by REGAL RANSOM)
4  RUNAWAY POWER Mar30 Mar13 Aug10     (cline c)RIVERA R 119 2.00    
  (by HIGHER POWER out of RUNAWAY'S VISION by POLLARD'S VISION)
5  A VAN ON THE RUN Mar30 Mar13 Feb27 Jan16 Dec11 (huffman can)NUNEZ Y 123 3.50 37% 1.70    
  (by RACE DAY out of BRIGHT REPLY by YONAGUSKA)
6  FAST AND FRIENDLY         (radosevich ju)BRACHO A 119 8.00    
  (by VEKOMA out of MY FAST FRIEND by FRIENDS LAKE)
 
TDN-5   04/30/2025 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($32.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GOLDENEYE MAGIC Apr01 Mar05 Feb12 Jan08 Dec05 (da)SALAZAR FERNANDO 119 3.50 24% 3.10    
2  LUCKY COUGAR Apr08 Apr10 Mar18 Feb15 Jan31 (dacosta )FERNANDEZ R 119 6.00    
3  CITY SCENE Nov25 Oct26 Sep23 Sep05 Aug13 (jackson james )HOUGHTON D 119 4.00 35% 1.90    
4  COMMAND STRIKE Aug13 Jul08 Jun11 May22 May01 (jackson r)RIVERA R 119 6.00 14% 6.10    
5  LADY WELLINGTON Mar11 Feb10 Jan25 Nov18 Oct21 (madrigal rod)TAVARES JAVIER 121 10.00    
6  RED HOT LASS Apr08 Mar27 Feb26 Dec10 Nov25 (skerrett jeff)BRACHO A 123 2.50    
SCR  THE SWEATY FOX Feb26 Dec10 Nov25 Sep26 Aug13 (skerrett jeff)BARBARAN ERIK 119 4.50    
 
TDN-6   04/30/2025 3630ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($35.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  VERNON'S BEST Apr22 Apr10 Mar12 Dec26 Dec10 (urieta johan)TAVARES JAVIER 121 5.00    
2  AKIMBO Oct09 Sep04 Aug07 Nov15 Sep25 (wolochuk dav)KEISER CHELSEY 119 4.00    
3  SEEKING FREEDOM Apr10 Mar27 Mar13 Feb26 Feb11 (faulkner rodney )VIGIL NOEL 119 15.00    
4  MERGER Dec19 Nov27 Sep19 Aug31 Aug14 (hamm timothy)BOWEN ROCCO 115 6.00 5% 19.00    
5  BE AN EDDIE Apr10 Mar04 Feb08 Jan15 Dec28 (rone mike)RIVERA R 117 2.50 50% 1.00    
6  MY HOMBRE Apr05 Mar19 Mar04 Feb08 Jan07 (juarez-mendoz)BARBARAN ERIK 119 15.00    
7  HIS ROYAL HIGHNESS Apr10 Mar12       (go)SALAZAR FERNANDO 117 1.80 21% 3.80    
 
TDN-7   04/30/2025 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($28K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MORE LOVE Jan04 Nov13 Oct30 Oct03 Sep18 (wolochuk dav)KEISER CHELSEY 123 4.00    
2  CHANNEL FURY Oct02 Aug20 Aug01 Jun27 Jun12 (jackson r)RIVERA R 123 2.50 35% 1.90    
3  STOMPING MOON Apr11 Mar22 Mar12 Mar03 Jan18 (pizzurro )HERNANDEZ LUCIANO 123 20.00    
SCR  FAT DADDY Apr21 Nov06 Oct20 Oct01 Sep19 (urieta j)FERNANDEZ R 123 15.00    
5  AYE AYE SIR Nov11 Oct22 Jul24 Jul10 Jun12 (rettele richard)PEREZ A 123 8.00    
6  JOHN'S ROCK Mar25 Mar13 Jan23 Nov18 Oct28 (ve)SALAZAR FERNANDO 123 2.00 39% 1.50    
7  I WANNA WIN Oct26 Sep10 Aug10 Jul11 Jun13 (jackson r)FELICIANO R 123 5.00    
8  TIME TO SHOOT Nov13 Oct28 Oct08 Sep11 Jul24 (rettele richar)HOUGHTON D 123 12.00 5% 19.00    
 
TDN-8   04/30/2025 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($35.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  VERTISALUTE Aug07 Jul18 Jul01 Jun17 May27 (rettele rich)TAVARES JAVIER 119 20.00    
2  FUNNYSTASTIC Apr12 Mar24 Oct26 Oct09   (urieta johanna)PEREZ A 115 15.00    
3  HOLLABACK Oct26 Oct02 Aug10 Jul19 May03 (hamm timothy)BOWEN ROCCO 115 3.00 28% 2.60    
4  LA ARTISTA Apr12 Aug10 Jul19 Jun26   (huffman canda)BRACHO A 115 10.00    
5  CREDIT CHECK Dec10 Nov26       (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 115 5.00    
6  HOLIDAYS ARMY BRAT Mar24 Mar03 Oct26 Oct09 Aug30 (meyers sha)CHAVEZ ALEXANDER 117 2.00 31% 2.20    
7  TOASTMASTER Apr12 Oct26 Aug10 Jul19 Jul04 (hamm timothy)DIAZ I 115 15.00 16% 5.30    
SCR  FLASHY N Mar27 Mar20 Mar05 Dec26 Dec11 (rivera nest)NUNEZ Y 115 4.50    
9  EXALTADA Oct26 Oct09       (go)SALAZAR FERNANDO 115 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.