Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Finger Lakes
Monday - October 02, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

FL-1   WIN (5/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/3)-(5/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (5/3)-(4/2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
FL-2   WIN (4/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/2/5)-(4/2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/2/5)-(4/2/5)-(4/2/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/2/5)-(4/5/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/2/5)-(4/5/1)-(1/2/3) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
FL-3   WIN (4/5/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/5/1)-(4/5/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/5/1)-(4/5/1)-(4/5/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/5/1)-(1/2/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/5/1)-(1/2/3)-(2/7/8/3) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
FL-4   WIN (1/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/2/3)-(1/2/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/2/3)-(1/2/3)-(1/2/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/2/3)-(2/7/8/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
FL-5   WIN (2/7/8/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/7/8/3)-(2/7/8/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/7/8/3)-(2/7/8/3)-(2/7/8/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/7/8/3)-(2/6/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
FL-6   WIN (2/6/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/6/8)-(2/6/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/6/8)-(2/6/8)-(2/6/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/6/8)-(3/2/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/6/8)-(3/2/5)-(4/3/8/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
FL-7   WIN (3/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/2/5)-(3/2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/2/5)-(3/2/5)-(3/2/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/2/5)-(4/3/8/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
FL-8   WIN (4/3/8/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/3/8/1)-(4/3/8/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/3/8/1)-(4/3/8/1)-(4/3/8/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
FL-1   10/02/2023 5490ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($32.1K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
DANCINWITHJAKE Sep18 Sep04 Aug14 Jul24 Jun26 (progno michael )ROHENA JR 124 12.00    
  (by ENCAUSTIC out of COPIOUS NOTES by READ THE FOOTNOTES)
SCR  DR. DARBY Sep18 Sep04 Aug22 Aug07 Jul24 (huertas )DAVIS A 124 6.00    
  (by ZIVO out of PROVIDED FOR by SIGNAL TAP)
PHILHARMONIC Jun23 Jun01 Oct14 Aug20   (zito nicholas)MARTIN MATTIE 114 1.60 18% 4.50    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of PRACTICE by DIESIS (GB))
MOBOT Aug22 Aug07 Jul24 Jul10 Jun28 (loaiza ilmar)HARKIE K 121 10.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of GINGER MO by UNCLE MO)
GOLD TEMPLAR Sep18 Sep04 Aug07 Jul16 Jun28 (falk jacqueline)FRET STEVEN 121 2.00 49% 1.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of TRUSS by FRIENDS LAKE)
OLLIE CAN DANCE Sep18 Sep04 Aug07 Jan28   (buckley jonathan )PEREZ E 121 3.50    
  (by BIG BROWN out of TOKEN BAY by GOLD TOKEN)
 
FL-2   10/02/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($32.1K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1A  MAX FOSTER Jan06 Dec11 Oct27 Sep29 Aug26 (englehart jef)DAVILA R 121 2.00    
  (by PALACE MALICE out of A P ZAPPER by GHOSTZAPPER)
SCR  TATER AND TOT Jan07 Dec17 Oct21 Sep29 Sep04 (englehart jef)DAVILA R 121 2.00    
  (by MAJESTIC CITY out of CHIC STREET by STREET SENSE)
VIGANO Apr08 Mar03 Apr16 Mar13 Jan28 (zito nicholas)MARTIN MATTIE 117 1.80 27% 2.70    
  (by HONOR CODE out of STOMPING by DIXIELAND BAND)
DOCTOR JERRY Sep04         (barrow paul)FLORES JEREMIAS 121 8.00    
  (by BUSTIN STONES out of DIXIE TALENT by DIXIE UNION)
PENTANGELI Aug07 Jul17 Jun28 Jun05 May08 (barrow paul)CRUZ JOEL 121 3.50 40% 1.50    
  (by CROSS TRAFFIC out of BRINGYOUROWNBOTTLE by STAY THIRSTY)
TRADITION JAMES         (bond br)NAVARRO J 124 10.00 7% 13.90    
  (by MASTER JAMES out of ARTISTIC TALENT by APTITUDE)
ROBIN'S GIANT Oct11 Sep12 Jul27 Jul14   (smith troy)COA J 124 6.00    
  (by GIANT SURPRISE out of FLYING ROBIN HOOD by COLONEL JOHN)
 
FL-3   10/02/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ROZ Aug21 Aug02 Jun13 May08 Apr25 (schudli)NAVARRO J 122 8.00 19% 4.40    
SCR  YES YOUR HONOR Sep05 Aug02 Jul19 Jun20 May22 (clarke dylan)BAEZ JOSE 122 12.00    
ALL ABOUT BELLA Jul19 May30 Nov01 Aug16 Jul18 (barrow paul)FLORES JEREMIAS 122 4.00    
BASTET Sep05 Aug02 Jul11 May28 Apr06 (dixon)HERNANDEZ OMAR 115 2.50 27% 2.70    
JACKIE B GOOD Sep18 Sep05 Apr05 Mar22 Feb15 (clarke dylan)DAVILA A 122 2.00 19% 4.20    
WINE TRAIL Sep18 Aug21 Aug02 Jul19 Jul05 (progno m)DAVIS A 122 8.00    
BAD CONNECTION Sep05 Aug21 Jul11 Jun26 Jun14 (gutierrez luis)ALVARADO R 119 5.00    
 
FL-4   10/02/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
THIN LEGS Sep20 Aug21 Jul12 May17 Apr25 (acquilano jam)DAVILA A 122 2.50 63% 0.60    
PRETTY MISS KEENS Aug14 Jul11 Jun20 May08 Apr02 (englehart )DE EMANUEL 119 2.00 14% 6.00    
LADY MISTRESS Mar31 Mar18 Mar03 Feb22 Aug31 (cotrone)NAVARRO J 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
SUBTLE GIANT Sep06 Aug23 Aug02 Jul17 Jul05 (d'alessandro ralp)PEREZ E 122 5.00    
MIDMON Sep18 Aug21 Aug02 Jul03 Jun20 (clarke dylan)BAEZ JOSE 122 3.50    
TRACI'S GIRL Aug29 Aug02 Jul18 Jul05 Jun20 (sparling wayne )ROHENA JR 122 15.00    
PALS ALLY Sep18 Sep05 Aug21 Aug02 Jul19 (gutierre)DAVIS A 122 8.00    
 
FL-5   10/02/2023 5490ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($5K) Purse ($12.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:11
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
REGAL EMPIRE Sep13 Aug30 Aug09 Jun19 May22 (thompson marcus)FRET STEVEN 124 12.00    
TRITON'S CREED Sep13 Aug07 Jul10     (ferraro michael)PEREZ E 124 2.50 27% 2.80    
TIZA BROWN Sep13 Aug23 May23 May15 Mar30 (bond brent)ROHENA JR 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
MICRODEMPSEY Sep13 Aug23       (sells rachel)SONE Y 121 20.00    
BEAR'S CORRECT Sep13 Aug25 May26 May14 Apr16 (gutierrez lui)DAVILA A 121 6.00    
FOOT TRAFFIC Aug30 Aug16 Aug02 Jul05 Jun12 (bireta donna)DIAZ J 116 8.00    
INTERCHANGER Sep13 Jul31 Jul02     (d'alessandro)HARKIE K 121 3.50 26% 2.90    
HINENI Aug04 Jul19 Jun25 Mar25 Oct21 (zito nicholas)MARTIN MATTIE 114 3.00 24% 3.10    
 
FL-6   10/02/2023 3630ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($25.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TACONY ROAD Sep18 Aug07 Jul17 Jun28   (murphy timothy)ALVARADO R 121 8.00    
BUSTING CREDIT Sep04 Aug21 Jul24 Jun19 May23 (barrow paul)CRUZ JOEL 124 4.00 32% 2.10    
TOMMY GUN Aug09 Jul15 Jun17 May14 Sep24 (maker michael)DAVILA R 124 2.50    
CONNECT THE BROCKS Jul25 Jun27 Jun05 May22 Apr16 (barrow paul)FLORES JEREMIAS 121 15.00    
MSHINDI Sep18 Aug31 Feb09 Nov25 Oct17 (dixon k)COA J 121 12.00    
POP COYER Sep04 Aug07 Jul10 May15 Apr27 (buckley jonat)NAVARRO KEVIN 121 3.00 28% 2.50    
SCR  UNDER THE KNIFE Sep04 Aug20 Jul21 Jun28   (englehart )DE EMANUEL 121 6.00    
BILLIEVE IN JOSH Jun21 Jun02 Oct19     (ficarella br)HARKIE K 121 8.00 11% 7.80    
 
FL-7   10/02/2023 5610ft DIRT RC11 FAST Jack Betta Be Rite Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:09
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  TRUE EMPRESS Aug30 Aug09 Jul12 Jun27 May20 (ferraro michael)VIVES SOFIA 120 6.00    
  (by CLASSIC EMPIRE out of FOR ALL YOU KNOW by YES IT'S TRUE)
GONE AND FORGOTTEN Aug14 Jul12 Jun14 Nov08 Oct30 (ferraro michael)PEREZ E 120 3.50 30% 2.30    
  (by BUSTIN STONES out of LITTLE ROCKET by KOKAND)
VENTI VALENTINE Aug09 Jun24 May29 Dec17 Oct30 (abreu r)DAVIS DYLAN 122 3.00 33% 2.10    
  (by FIRING LINE out of GLORY GOLD by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
SHESASCOLDASICE Sep04 Jul26 Jul11 Jun14 May30 (ferraro )DAVIS A 120 20.00    
  (by KEEN ICE out of SHESASTONECOLDFOX by FOXHOUND)
EROS'S GIRL Sep13 Jul26 Jul12 May30 Nov15 (ferraro m )DE EMANUEL 120 6.00 9% 10.30    
  (by BOYS AT TOSCONOVA out of ASPREE by FREUD)
SCR  KNOW IT ALL AUDREY Aug09 Jul20 May26 Apr30 Apr21 (barrera osc)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 4.00    
  (by SHACKLEFORD out of KNOW IT ALL ANNA by MIDNIGHT LUTE)
SCR  SARATOGA KISSES Oct01 Aug28 Aug09 Jul19 Jul04 (miller-saul b)NAVARRO KEVIN 122 20.00    
  (by KANTHAROS out of KISS THE FLAG by QUIET AMERICAN)
MISSING FORTUNE Sep02 Aug11 Jul12 Jun21 May31 (saul dana)COA J 120 8.00    
  (by MISSION IMPAZIBLE out of DADDY'S CRAZY GIRL by SCAT DADDY)
SCR  ALLURE FORTUNE Sep11 Aug21 Aug02 Jul19 Jul05 (saul dana)BAEZ JOSE 120 20.00    
  (by BAYERN out of I DAZZLE by HOLD THAT TIGER)
10  CURLY GIRL Aug14 Jul25 Jun27 May22 Apr27 (barrow paul)CRUZ JOEL 120 10.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of FALCONESS by FOOLISH PLEASURE)
 
FL-8   10/02/2023 5940ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($25.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:38
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PARTY NEWS Sep06 Aug15 Aug02 Jul24 Dec28 (maver eduardo)ROHENA JR 124 15.00    
1A  SHE SPEAKS WELL Sep18 Sep06 Aug16 Aug07 Jul24 (maver eduardo)FRET STEVEN 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
OVER THE CAP Sep18 Sep06 Aug14 Jul24 Jul03 (ferraro michael)VIVES SOFIA 116 6.00    
POT OF GOLD Sep04 Aug07 Apr16     (englehart )DE EMANUEL 121 4.00 21% 3.70    
PREDICTED Sep18 May26 May05 Apr02 Mar03 (englehart jef)DAVILA R 124 3.00 33% 2.10    
AMERICAN HALITE Sep06 Jul24 Jul10 Jun12 Oct16 (bartlett)DAVIS A 121 10.00    
STREET COP OFFICER Sep06 Aug22 Aug07 Jun30 Jun03 (sells rache)FLORES JEREMIAS 121 6.00    
TIZ LUCKY Sep06 Aug02 Jul17 Jul04 Jun19 (miller-saul beth)CRUZ JOEL 121 6.00    
MO TRUMP Aug02 Jul17 Jun27 Jun12 May24 (ferraro anth)COA J 121 3.50 12% 7.40    
SCR  OLD POINT Sep06 Aug22 Jul25 Jul10 Jun18 (loaiza ilmar)HARKIE K 124 8.00 12% 7.70    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.