Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Arapahoe Park
Saturday - August 19, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ARP-3   WIN (5/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/4)-(5/4) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    PK3 (5/4)-(7/2/1/3)-(2/1/7/4) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
ARP-4   WIN (7/2/1/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/2/1/3)-(7/2/1/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/2/1/3)-(7/2/1/3)-(7/2/1/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/2/1/3)-(2/1/7/4)-(4/5/1) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
ARP-5   WIN (2/1/7/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/1/7/4)-(2/1/7/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/1/7/4)-(2/1/7/4)-(2/1/7/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/1/7/4)-(4/5/1)-(5/4) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
ARP-6   WIN (4/5/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/5/1)-(4/5/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/5/1)-(4/5/1)-(4/5/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (4/5/1)-(5/4)-(2/4/6/9) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
ARP-7   WIN (5/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/4)-(5/4) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
ARP-8   WIN (2/4/6/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/4/6/9)-(2/4/6/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/4/6/9)-(2/4/6/9)-(2/4/6/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ARP-3   08/19/2023 3630ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($3.5K) Purse ($5K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  CATS GOTTA CHANCE Jul17 Jul03 Jun17 Apr29 Apr09 (long vaughn)LUARK T 124 4.50    
3  ARIMONY Aug05 Jul23 Jul15 Jun25 May01 (torres-casas)JOURNET JARRED 124 15.00    
4  OPTIMAL Aug06 Jul29 Jul02 Jun25 Apr22 (rushton temple)RAMOS B 124 3.50 22% 3.60    
5  CHUCK NAZTY Aug06 Jul10 Jan14 Dec13 Oct02 (martinez a)WALES T 121 2.50 23% 3.40    
SCR  HEADEDTOTHESTARS Jul17 Mar20 Dec13 Nov30 Sep05 ( )TBA null      
 
ARP-4   08/19/2023 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($9.7K) 2 ALL PT- 4:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LITE RANCHIN KID         (barraza raf)MORALES ROBERTO 120 4.50 8% 11.00    
  (by LEMON DROP KID out of LORELEI'S SONG by AMERI VALAY)
2  SHUDDER Jul29 Jul16 Apr15     (barraza s)LULL E 120 2.50 13% 6.50    
  (by LOTSA MISCHIEF out of RYLEIGH RULER by ROMAN RULER)
3  MOONSPLASH         (rushton stacy)RAMEY CASH 115 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by RANSOM THE MOON out of TERRI'S PASS by WAR PASS)
4  WHAT THE HEY Jul16 Jul04       (triana marti)RAMOS B 120 6.00    
  (by FLAT OUT out of HEY BABY by SAVE BIG MONEY)
5  CAUTION CARDINAL         (story chad)MORALES ALLYSSA 120 15.00    
  (by STANFORD out of MS. CAUTION by MR. GREELEY)
6  TOOMANYNAMES         (rushton stacy)HAAR NATHAN 120 12.00    
  (by JIMMY CREED out of GREATEST SHOW by STORM CAT)
7  TAP TAP HUSTO Jul29         (martinez a)WALES T 120 3.50 43% 1.30    
  (by TAPITURE out of ZENA by MAJESTICPERFECTION)
 
ARP-5   08/19/2023 3300ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($5K) Purse ($4.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FULL SPIRIT May01         (kenney dan)RAMEY CASH 115 2.50 27% 2.70    
2  DESERT SUNSET         (barraza s)WALES T 120 4.50 28% 2.60    
3  PIZZA GIRL Aug06 Jul23 May14 Apr21 Mar25 (burns dale)GONZALEZ PEDRO 117 20.00    
4  DESERT PEPPER Dec20 Nov14 Nov02 Sep25 Aug30 (marquez jos)VORRATH VALENTE 120 8.00 9% 10.80    
5  BIG CREEK FIRE Jul23 Jul09       (barraza raf)MORALES ALLYSSA 120 20.00    
6  IMA HAPPY DANCER Aug06 Sep25 Sep13     (vicchrilli russel)RAMOS B 117 15.00    
7  GREEDY         (story chad)LULL E 124 10.00 15% 5.80    
8  AUNT CARI Aug06 Jul17 Jun17 May20 May05 (lemburg mark)MCNEIL BRYAN 120 3.50    
 
ARP-6   08/19/2023 4620ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($3.5K) Purse ($6.2K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  THORNISH Jul29 Jul02 Jun09 Jun03 May20 (hibdon mark)MORALES ROBERTO 124 15.00 7% 13.40    
2  PERVASIVE Jul29 Jun18 May20 May06 Apr22 (muckey john)RAMOS B 124 20.00    
3  MEAN CANNON Aug05 May16 Apr12 Mar14 Mar04 (williams f)RAMEY CASH 119 4.50    
4  JIMBO'S BIZ Jul29 Jul16 Jul02 Jun18 May06 (rushton stacy)WALES T 124 2.00 44% 1.30    
5  TIGER BY HIS TAIL Jul29 Jul09 Apr02 Mar26 Mar11 (barrio sergio)LULL E 124 3.50 23% 3.30    
 
ARP-7   08/19/2023 4620ft DIRT RC11 FAST CTBA Spicy Purse ($35.738K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROCKIN MARIE Jul22 Jul08 Jun17 Apr15 Apr02 (long vaughn)LUARK T 124 4.50    
  (by ROCKY BAR out of YELLOW CHUMARINE by CHUMAREE)
2  CHASING DIVINITY Aug05 Jul16 Jul01 Sep26 Sep04 (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 124 15.00    
  (by ZIP QUIK out of ISN'T SHE DIVINE by STEPHEN GOT EVEN)
SCR  FLO TIME Aug07 Jul22 Jul08 Mar19 Mar04 (martinez a)LULL E 124 10.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of CATS LEGEND by GOLD LEGEND)
4  A J'S RIDE Aug05 Jul08 Jun10 Oct02 Sep04 (parsons riley)RAMOS B 124 2.50 24% 3.20    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of A J MARIE by SONGANDAPRAYER)
5  CELEE'S LAST TE Aug06 Jul15 Jul08 Jun17 Oct04 (vicchrilli russell)WALES T 124 3.50 54% 0.80    
  (by TULSA TE out of CELEE by CONGAREE)
 
ARP-8   08/19/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($9.7K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OLD FASHION TIME Aug07 Jul09       (parsons ril)MORALES ROBERTO 121 12.00    
  (by MAJOR BIG TIME out of OLD FASHION LOVE by BELLINGHAM)
2  EL JEFE COBB Aug06 Jul15 Jul02 Sep27 Sep05 (young a)HAAR NATHAN 124 3.50 39% 1.60    
  (by JIMMY CREED out of ROYALE MICHELE by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
3  COMFORT KISS Jul10 Apr02 Mar12 Feb07   (young a)TORRES J 120 20.00    
  (by COMFORT out of SOUL KISS by PERFECT SOUL (IRE))
4  INCREDIBE MO Jul31 Jul10 Jun19 Jan30 Jan07 (whitehouse wilton )LULL E 124 2.50 21% 3.80    
  (by ACCLAMATION out of THORELLEN by SWISS YODELER)
6  LOOPY DUDE Jul30 Jul23 Jul15 Jun17 Jun09 (christian bill)MCNEIL BRYAN 120 8.00 18% 4.60    
  (by FIRST DUDE out of LOOPETY LOO by AFLEET ALEX)
7  DOMERGOO Jul31 Jul02 Apr14 Mar31   (childs russe)GONZALEZ PEDRO 124 15.00    
  (by MISREMEMBERED out of OVERTHETOP by BROKEN VOW)
8  BATTLEOF TRAFALGAR Jul29 Jul02 Jun19 Jun04 Mar18 (christian billy)WALES T 120 4.50    
  (by COAST GUARD out of LADY YODELER by SWISS YODELER)
9  TIZKANDOIT Jul31 Jul10 May08     (shipp michael)RAMOS B 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by KANTHAROS out of ISLE OF WONDER by TIZ WONDERFUL)
SCR  IZZY IN A TIZZY Jul31 Jul02 May13 Sep15 Aug25 ( )TBA null      
  (by TIZNOW out of SONG COLLECTION by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.