Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Rillito
Saturday - March 18, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
RIL-5   WIN (3) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    EXA (3)-(3/2/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    TRI (3)-(3/2/6)-(3/2/6) 2 $0.50 $1.00 
    DD (3)-(1/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (3)-(1/3)-(4/5) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
RIL-6   WIN (1/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/3)-(1/3/7/2) 6 $2.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/3)-(1/3/7/2)-(1/3/7/2) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (1/3)-(4/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
RIL-7   WIN (4/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/5)-(4/5/1/3) 6 $2.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/5)-(4/5/1/3)-(4/5/1/3) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (4/5)-(6/4/1/2) 8 $2.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (4/5)-(6/4/1/2)-(1/4/6) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
RIL-8   WIN (6/4/1/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/4/1/2)-(6/4/1/2/3) 16 $2.00 $32.00 
    TRI (6/4/1/2)-(6/4/1/2/3)-(6/4/1/2/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (6/4/1/2)-(1/4/6) 12 $2.00 $24.00 
RIL-9   WIN (1/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/4/6)-(1/4/6/5) 9 $2.00 $18.00 
    TRI (1/4/6)-(1/4/6/5)-(1/4/6/5) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
RIL-5   03/18/2023 3630ft DIRT RC11 FAST Liz Bracken Memorial Purse ($20K) 3 F PT- 6:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TECATE GOLD Feb20 Jan23       (metz jeff)KELLENBERGER KODY 124 6.00    
  (by HARBOR THE GOLD out of EL TECOLOTE by BERTRANDO)
2  TOOTUFFTOSWALLOW Mar03 Jan02       (silva p)SERRANO KEIVAN 124 1.40 ★    
  (by STAY THIRSTY out of MISS REMEMBERING by MISREMEMBERED)
3  WE WANT ANOTHER Mar12 Jan25 Jan03 Dec15 Nov25 (lavanway day)REYES-FRISBY D 124 20.00 13% 6.90    
  (by I'LL HAVE ANOTHER out of TENDER AND TRUE by GALILEO (ARG))
SCR  SMOKEMONTHECLIFF Mar09 Feb05       (metz jeffrey)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 8.00    
  (by SMOKEM out of GUISE CLIFF by DISTANT VIEW)
5  LILY PAD LAKE Mar11 Feb26 Feb20 Feb04 Jan16 (gilmour j)JENSEN P 124 12.00    
  (by DADS CAPS out of LEOPARD PRINT by EYE OF THE LEOPARD)
6  IDA NEEDA DRINK Mar06 Feb15 Feb05 Sep05 Aug05 (alvarez serg)CARBAJAL KEVIN 124 4.50 ★    
  (by STAY THIRSTY out of IF ONLY IDA by GRACE UPON GRACE)
SCR  ISLAND BEAUTY Jan03 Dec15 Nov25 Nov08 Sep02 (ortega joe)OSUNA JESUS 124 15.00 14% 6.10    
  (by HONOR CODE out of ISLA by CARNIVALAY)
SCR  SHORT JOURNEY Mar12 Feb25 Feb21 Feb13 Jan23 (rosales jorg)YBARRA MICHAEL 124 3.50 49% 1.00    
  (by CAPITAL ACCOUNT out of FREEDOM JOURNEY by GOOD JOURNEY)
 
RIL-6   03/18/2023 3630ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($9.3K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TEXAS LONG BOW Mar05 Feb18 Feb09 Jan14 Jan02 (warren kayla)AGUILAR DANIEL 126 2.50 67% 0.50    
2  BAD KARMA Oct30 Oct23 Oct10 Sep20 Aug30 (silva pabl)LEON A 121 3.00 ★    
3  ROCKED Mar04 Feb19 Feb11 Jan23 Jan05 (metz jeffrey)SERRANO KEIVAN 126 3.50 11% 8.40    
SCR  SWITCH BACK Mar11 Feb18 Feb12 Apr24 Mar26 (cruz omar)BEVERLY JR 126 15.00 ★    
5  EDINBURGH EXPRESS Mar11 Feb19 Feb04 Dec11 Aug25 (gilmour jim)YBARRA MICHAEL 126 6.00    
6  ROUGE SUNSET Feb02 Jan04 Dec13 Nov16 Nov05 (torres-casas je)ELLIS DEVON 126 12.00    
7  HARROVIAN Feb26 Feb06 Sep17 Aug29 Aug15 (villamar cande)DEONAUTH P 126 4.50 ★    
 
RIL-7   03/18/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($9.3K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LOW DOSE Mar14 Feb19 Jan30 Jan14 Jan04 (silva pabl)LEON A 126 3.50 ★    
SCR  PAYNT THE KITTY Feb07 Jan24 Jan09 Dec14 Nov29 (silva )ARRIOLA-SERRANO JOSE 126 6.00 18% 4.40    
3  RETURN TO HARBOR Mar05 Apr02 Mar26 Mar12 Mar05 (kern davi)KELLENBERGER KODY 126 10.00 ★    
4  JUSTIN'S LADY Feb25 Jan21 Dec18 Dec02   (metz jeffrey)SERRANO KEIVAN 126 1.00 33% 2.00    
5  HUGHIE'S HOLIDAY Feb26 Feb11 Feb05 Jan17 Dec14 (ybarra rudy)YBARRA MICHAEL 126 3.00 24% 3.20    
SCR  PREDETERMINATION Feb25 Feb11 Jan24 Jan12 Dec22 (ybarra rudy)OSUNA JESUS 126 15.00    
 
RIL-8   03/18/2023 3630ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($9.3K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PEACE OF EKATI Dec14 Dec01 Nov08 Oct17 Aug21 (silva pabl)LEON A 126 3.50 14% 6.30    
2  GENERAL THAYER Mar07 Feb19 Jan31 Jan12 Aug01 (wheeler t)KELLENBERGER KODY 126 2.50 13% 6.60    
3  SHARK HARBOR Mar11 Mar01 Feb07 Jan26   (magrady ronald)OSUNA JESUS 126 15.00 ★    
4  FIGHT ME Feb25 Feb19 Feb05 Jan05 Dec15 (figueroa jua)YBARRA MICHAEL 126 6.00 20% 4.10    
SCR  HADLEES HONOR Feb14 Jan13 Dec09 Nov27 Nov04 (gilmour j)JENSEN P 124 10.00    
6  ROYAL TAP Mar05 Feb19 Feb11 Jan24 Jan04 (torres-casas)SERRANO KEIVAN 126 2.00 28% 2.60    
7  LIL LATIGO Mar11 Mar01 Feb18 Feb05 Jan24 (lavanway day)AGUILAR DANIEL 126 8.00    
 
RIL-9   03/18/2023 1320ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($10K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FIRECRACKER STAND Mar08 Feb25 Feb09 Jan31 Jan05 (bullene mich)YBARRA MICHAEL 126 2.00 38% 1.70    
2  ALEX'S GIRL Mar05 Feb25 Feb11 Feb04 Jan21 (metz jeff)KELLENBERGER KODY 121 5.00    
3  U S READY Dec03 Nov19 Oct16 Oct08 Sep30 (ortega fernando)OSUNA JESUS 121 8.00    
4  BAPTISM (GB) Feb25 Feb19 Feb11 Dec27 Dec13 (torres-casas)CARBAJAL KEVIN 126 4.00 31% 2.30    
5  CONQUEST MOONMAD Feb05 Nov09 Apr24 Apr02 Mar26 (alcoverde ernesto)GAMEZ M 126 10.00 ★    
6  TIME TO ZOOM Feb26 Feb19 Jun11 May21 Apr19 (metz jeffrey)SERRANO KEIVAN 126 3.00 7% 13.90    
7  NORTH DAWN Mar04 Feb18 Jan08 Dec03 Oct22 (metz jeffrey)AGUILAR DANIEL 121 15.00    
SCR  GOOD OLD FAITHFUL Sep09 Aug27       (ortega joe)BEVERLY JR 126 20.00 5% 19.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.