Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - September 11, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (7/2/4/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/2/4/10)-(7/2/4/6/10) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (7/2/4/10)-(7/2/4/6/10)-(7/2/4/6/10) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (7/2/4/10)-(8/1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/2/4/10)-(8/1/5)-(8/7/6/3/5) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-2   WIN (8/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/1/5)-(8/1/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (8/1/5)-(8/1/5)-(8/1/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (8/1/5)-(8/7/6/3/5) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (8/1/5)-(8/7/6/3/5)-(10/7/9/3/2) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
CD-3   WIN (8/7/6/3/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/7/6/3/5)-(8/7/6/3/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/7/6/3/5)-(8/7/6/3/5)-(8/7/6/3/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (8/7/6/3/5)-(10/7/9/3/2) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (8/7/6/3/5)-(10/7/9/3/2)-(5/6/11/2) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-4   WIN (10/7/9/3/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/7/9/3/2)-(10/7/9/3/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/7/9/3/2)-(10/7/9/3/2)-(10/7/9/3/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (10/7/9/3/2)-(5/6/11/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (10/7/9/3/2)-(5/6/11/2)-(6/4/1/8/9) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-5   WIN (5/6/11/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/6/11/2)-(5/6/8/11/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (5/6/11/2)-(5/6/8/11/2)-(5/6/8/11/2) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (5/6/11/2)-(6/4/1/8/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (5/6/11/2)-(6/4/1/8/9)-(4/8/1/9) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-6   WIN (6/4/1/8/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/4/1/8/9)-(6/4/1/8/9/11) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    TRI (6/4/1/8/9)-(6/4/1/8/9/11)-(6/4/1/8/9/11) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
    DD (6/4/1/8/9)-(4/8/1/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (6/4/1/8/9)-(4/8/1/9)-(9/8/7) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-7   WIN (4/8/1/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/8/1/9)-(4/3/8/1/9) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (4/8/1/9)-(4/3/8/1/9)-(4/3/8/1/9) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (4/8/1/9)-(9/8/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CD-8   WIN (9/8/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (9/8/7)-(9/8/3/7/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/8/7)-(9/8/3/7/1)-(9/8/3/7/1) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   09/11/2025 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($45K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DADDY JUSTIFY Aug18 Aug02 Jun19 Apr30 Feb27 (santamaria car)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 5.00    
2  EMBER Aug01 Jun22 Jun05 Apr19 Mar29 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 12.00 27% 2.70    
3  MISSION MIKE Aug18 Jul25 Jul12 Jun20 May28 (cahill steven )MACHADO LUAN 122 15.00    
4  AGENT CREED Aug22 Aug07 Jun25 Jun11 Apr17 (troiani nicco)MORALES EDGAR 122 12.00 6% 15.90    
5  PAYNTER'S CANVAS Aug13 May16 Apr29 Mar23 Jan25 (lauer michael)ELLIOTT JANE 122 20.00    
6  AIR OF DEFIANCE Aug04 Jul03 Jun18 May10 Apr12 (sharp joe)LEPAROUX R 122 2.50 ★    
7  PROVEN HOPE Aug22 Jun25 Jun05 May11 Apr19 (diodoro r)TORRES A 122 3.00 40% 1.50    
SCR  NIKOLAOU Aug18 Jun05 Apr29 Mar15 Feb28 (dixon jr)CEDILLO ABEL 122 20.00    
9  SYNTHESIS Apr04 Mar08 Jan23 Jan04 Aug18 (jacobson d)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.50    
10  NOAHS ARK (IRE) Aug23 Jun01 Apr26 Mar29 Mar13 (norris mi)CORREA L 122 30.00 5% 19.00    
11  SUCCESSION GOLD Aug23 Aug13 May09 Mar20 Feb01 (orantes jo)VILLARREAL OSCAR 122 30.00    
12  SITTIN ON GO Jul13 Jun20 May29 May03 Apr06 (hartman ch)HERNANDEZ J 122 12.00    
 
CD-2   09/11/2025 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($36K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHORTSTOP Aug18 Aug01 Jul04 Jun13 May01 (cook k)MORALES EDGAR 122 15.00 20% 3.90    
2  TIS CHARMING Jul03 Jun08 Apr12 Mar01 Feb03 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 6.00    
3  JOHNSON Aug17 Jul03 Jun21 Jun08 May17 (jacobson d)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.00    
SCR  ENOUGH ALREADY Sep04 Jul26 Jul03 Jun08 Apr28 (parker donald )SAEZ GABRIEL 122 15.00    
5  ROMANTIC LEAD Aug21 Jul25 Jun28 Jun14 May25 (wittek karyn)ELLIOTT JANE 122 8.00 15% 5.70    
SCR  SCUBA Jun27 Jun20 Jun05 May15 Apr11 (green troy)CANUTO THIAGO 122 20.00    
SCR  PUBLICITY Aug25 Aug16 Jul18 Jul03 May30 (londono genevieve)GRAHAM J 122 5.00    
8  ULTIMATE STRIKE Aug14 Jul25 Jun25 Jun13 May29 (casse w)SAEZ LUIS 122 2.50 26% 2.90    
9  DANCING NOAH Jul30 Jun08 May16 Apr29 Mar06 (taylor bren)GUTIERREZ MARIO 122 8.00    
 
CD-3   09/11/2025 5280ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($30K) Purse ($62K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WITS AND WAGERS Aug08 Jun07 May08 Dec27 Oct23 (sweezey j)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 5.00    
2  MAD ABOUT MARIE Jul21 May09 Apr06 Feb07 Jan19 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 118 6.00    
3  COLORMECAIRO Jul19 Jan16 Dec20 Nov09 Oct01 (shirer a)MACHADO LUAN 122 8.00 8% 11.70    
4  LADY LALA Aug14 May04 Apr13 Mar30 Mar02 (wittek karyn)MORALES EDGAR 122 6.00    
5  FOURFIFTYSEVEN May16 Mar12 Feb07 Jan15 Dec14 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
6  MISS ELLARY Aug07 Jul10 Jun18 May17 Apr26 (deiter kel)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 5.00 13% 6.80    
7  SHE'S NOT A JOKE Jun07 Apr26 Mar14 Feb03 Dec20 (williams )TORRES A 122 4.00 19% 4.30    
8  COLONIAL ROSE Jul27 Jun13 Apr23 Mar06 Dec26 (casse w)ORTIZ L 122 2.50 38% 1.60    
9  RANDO Aug26 Jul12 Jun07 May09 Feb26 (warpool shane)ELLIOTT JANE 118 15.00    
 
CD-4   09/11/2025 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 2 F PT- 6:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BOOM BOOM BELL Aug10 Jul27 Jul10 Jun15   (lynch e)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 15.00    
2  TIZIANNA Aug16         (pitts helen)MORALES EDGAR 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  STORM CLOUD RISING Apr25 Apr11       (esqu)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  SUGAREE (IRE) Aug15 Jul12 Jul06 Jun29 May24 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 122 15.00    
5  CINNAMON SUGAR (IRE) Jul12 Jun18 May25 Apr25 Apr11 (hancock a)ORTIZ L 122 10.00    
6  MIA'S GO Aug19         (rivera ne)LEPAROUX R 122 30.00    
7  ON TIME GIRL Aug03         (cox h)ORTIZ JR 122 3.00 28% 2.50    
8  MAGIC SEEKER Jun16 May31       (vanden britt)EMIGH A 122 20.00    
9  CHAMPAGNE CANDICE Aug17 Jul26       (von donn)ROCCO S 122 8.00 17% 5.00    
10  TENNESSEE BELLE Aug16 Jul26       (ortiz john)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.20 32% 2.10    
 
CD-5   09/11/2025 5610ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:59
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MONEY SUPPLY Aug22 Aug01 Jul05 Jun01 May01 (sharp joe)ORTIZ JR 122 3.50    
2  ENGLISH CHUNNEL May10 Apr19 Mar21 Feb21 Jan24 (catalano wayne )LANERIE J 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
3  AUTHENTIC GALLOP Jul05 May17 Mar15 Feb07 Jan20 (amoss tho)LEPAROUX R 118 20.00    
4  FIDGET Aug18 Jul05 Mar02 Jan01 Nov09 (cox h)MACHADO LUAN 122 5.00    
5  OSCAR SEASON Jun08 May10 Apr24 Dec07 Nov02 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 5.00 37% 1.70    
6  BEYOND STOKED Mar29 Mar01 Jan25 Aug03 Jul13 (lynch bri)TORRES A 122 12.00 35% 1.80    
SCR  SUMMER IN ADRIANE Jul20 Apr09 Mar15 Feb08 Jan18 (maker mic)DETTORI LANFRANCO 122 10.00    
8  DEPICTION Aug09 Jun05 Apr24 Oct26 Sep08 (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 122 3.00 ★    
9  NOT FALLING BACK Aug08 Jun15 May18 Jun08 May18 (block chris)GEROUX FLORENT 122 12.00    
10  THEISMANN Aug02 Jun11 Apr08 Feb15 Jan15 (eurton peter)SAEZ LUIS 124 12.00    
11  IN A JAM Aug31 Jul05 Apr29 Mar14 Jan25 (danner doug)MORALES EDGAR 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
12  OCEAN POINTE May25 Apr24 Mar14 Feb15 Sep30 (estvanko r)VILLARREAL OSCAR 122 20.00    
13  BOLD DISCOVERY Aug01 Oct19       (mckeever andr)CANNON DECLAN 122 20.00    
 
CD-6   09/11/2025 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 7:28
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LIL TIPSY Aug17         (shirer matt )BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 10.00 24% 3.20    
  (by VINO ROSSO out of NOT SWAYED by HONOR CODE)
SCR  JOKE MAKER Aug03 Jul05       (brisset rodolp)MACHADO LUAN 119 8.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of SWAN OF THE NILE by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
3  A FINE CHARDONNAY         (wilkes ian)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of ANDELE by LUCKY SO N' SO)
4  SOLEMN VOW Aug02         (stall albe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 24% 3.10    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of RAINIER by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
5  LEGIT CHICK         (dunn stephen)TORRES A 119 20.00    
  (by AUTHENTIC out of STRUT THE CANARY by MINESHAFT)
6  GLAM SLAM Aug03         (servis c)ORTIZ JR 119 3.50 30% 2.40    
  (by HIGH COTTON out of GLAMALERT by VINDICATION)
7  DANCEWHENYOUCAN         (stewart d)LEPAROUX R 119 15.00    
  (by KNOWN AGENDA out of DANCE THEWAYYOUARE by MINESHAFT)
8  TOUCH OF AN ANGEL         (damato philip)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TAPIT out of BELLE LAURA by MUCHO MACHO MAN)
9  SUGAR DOLL         (lynch bri)TORRES A 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by WESTERN FAME out of SINCERELY SWEET by SKYWALKER)
10  ACQUAZURRA         (devaux cher)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 10.00    
  (by GIRVIN out of CARA SORELLA by BROTHER DEREK)
11  MEASURE         (casse mark)ORTIZ L 119 8.00 ★    
  (by ESSENTIAL QUALITY out of FATEER by ESKENDEREYA)
12  LADY REVENGE         (lynch brian)GUTIERREZ MARIO 119 10.00    
  (by VIOLENCE out of MIA TIA by EQUIANO (FR))
SCR  OF ALL THINGS         (casse mark)ORTIZ L 119 10.00    
  (by MCKINZIE out of JO MARIE by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
SCR  BONNE SANTE         (walden william)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00    
  (by INSTILLED REGARD out of SOCIAL MATRIX by JIMMY CREED)
SCR  BARACCA         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of SHOP AGAIN by WILD AGAIN)
SCR  MIDNIGHT FLIGHT         (ortiz al)ORTIZ JR 119 12.00    
  (by CLOUD COMPUTING out of DISTINGUISHED LADY by SMART STRIKE)
 
CD-7   09/11/2025 4290ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JERSEY PEARL Jul04 Aug11 Jul07 Nov20 Sep02 (miller da)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
2  EASY RED Jun28 Apr13 Feb22 Jan02 Nov27 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 121 5.00    
3  MARMALADE SKYE May24 Apr30 Mar20 Feb24 Feb12 (jacobson d)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 4.50 ★    
4  FIBBER Jul21 Feb01 Dec21 Nov25 Oct19 (hartman chris)ORTIZ L 121 4.00 38% 1.60    
5  TAPIT QUICK Jul21 Jun15 May03 Mar01 Jan27 (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 121 6.00    
6  PISTOL Aug30 Aug09 Jun27 May01 Feb23 (van thom)MORALES EDGAR 123 10.00    
7  LADY MOSCATO Aug23 Apr26 Mar29 Feb23 Jan25 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 10.00    
8  LEGADEMA Aug20 Sep21 Jun09 May11 Apr05 (bauer philip )ORTIZ JR 121 5.00 11% 8.30    
9  COPPER EM Aug23 Jul20 Jun25 May11 Mar14 (jacobson dav)TORRES A 123 8.00 5% 19.00    
10  NON VIOLENCE Jun21 Apr26 Apr04 Mar04 Feb01 (calhoun wil)CONCEPCION AXEL 121 20.00    
 
CD-8   09/11/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($64K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MIDNIGHT PRANKS Aug10 Jun21 May31 May02 Apr06 (wiggins lon)LANERIE J 121 5.00 ★    
2  MUMAYAZ Feb17 Jan18 Dec14 Nov19 Oct30 (moquett e)SAEZ LUIS 121 3.50    
3  AMERICAN XPERIMENT Aug02 Jul03 May17 Nov16 Sep06 (asmussen steve)ORTIZ L 121 4.50 ★    
4  NABOKOV Aug02 Jul04 Jun13 May23 Sep26 (foster eric)CONCEPCION AXEL 121 12.00    
5  LIGHTNING STRUCK Aug02 Jun21 May31 Apr26 Apr02 (diodoro robert)CEDILLO ABEL 121 5.00    
SCR  PRINCIP Jun21 May31 Mar14 Jan05 Nov02 (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 121 15.00    
7  SHOW TIME Aug09 Apr29 Mar23 Mar01 Feb01 (casse w)ORTIZ JR 121 3.00 9% 9.80    
8  PURE PANIC Apr12 Mar08 Jan31 Jan03 Dec01 (dutrow ric)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 5.00 20% 4.00    
9  TOP GUN TOMMY Aug02 Jun21 May06 Mar22 Mar08 (jacobson dav)TORRES A 121 4.00 28% 2.60    
10  GUANARE Aug17 Jul06 May29 Apr16 Feb12 (diodoro r)TORRES A 121 6.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.