Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Turf Paradise
Thursday - April 11, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TUP-3   WIN (8/7/5/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/7/5/1)-(8/7/5/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/7/5/1)-(8/7/5/1)-(8/7/5/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/7/5/1)-(3/7/11) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/7/5/1)-(3/7/11)-(10/4/3/5/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
TUP-4   WIN (3/7/11) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/7/11)-(3/7/11/12/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/7/11)-(3/7/11/12/5)-(3/7/11/12/5) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (3/7/11)-(10/4/3/5/7) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (3/7/11)-(10/4/3/5/7)-(6/5/8/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
TUP-5   WIN (10/4/3/5/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/4/3/5/7)-(10/4/3/5/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/4/3/5/7)-(10/4/3/5/7)-(10/4/3/5/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (10/4/3/5/7)-(6/5/8/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (10/4/3/5/7)-(6/5/8/7)-(3/6/2/8/10) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
TUP-6   WIN (6/5/8/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/5/8/7)-(6/5/8/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/5/8/7)-(6/5/8/7)-(6/5/8/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/5/8/7)-(3/6/2/8/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (6/5/8/7)-(3/6/2/8/10)-(2/6/4/5) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
TUP-7   WIN (3/6/2/8/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/6/2/8/10)-(3/6/2/8/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/6/2/8/10)-(3/6/2/8/10)-(3/6/2/8/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (3/6/2/8/10)-(2/6/4/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (3/6/2/8/10)-(2/6/4/5)-(5/9/1/2/3) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
TUP-8   WIN (2/6/4/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/6/4/5)-(2/6/4/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/6/4/5)-(2/6/4/5)-(2/6/4/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/6/4/5)-(5/9/1/2/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (2/6/4/5)-(5/9/1/2/3)-(10/2/5/3) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
TUP-9   WIN (5/9/1/2/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/9/1/2/3)-(5/9/1/2/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/9/1/2/3)-(5/9/1/2/3)-(5/9/1/2/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (5/9/1/2/3)-(10/2/5/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
TUP-10   WIN (10/2/5/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (10/2/5/3)-(10/2/5/3/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (10/2/5/3)-(10/2/5/3/7)-(10/2/5/3/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TUP-3   04/11/2024 2970ft DIRT RC11 FAST nongraded Stake Purse ($30K) 2 ALL PT- 4:59
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PLEASANT BOSS         (mccartney j)MCGREGOR KIAMAN 121 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by STREET BOSS out of PLEASANT WIND by PLEASANT COLONY)
SCR  DIAMANTE ELEGANTE         (evans justin)REYES R 118 15.00    
  (by LOTSA MISCHIEF out of CATLADYDUE by ORIENTATE)
3  SHESAYSHELLO         (birdwell tena)CRUZ M 118 15.00    
  (by PROTONICO out of MORETHANJUSTHELLO by MORE THAN READY)
SCR  BACKSEAT HEAT         (evans j)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 118 10.00    
  (by LOTSA MISCHIEF out of HONEY CANDY by DESPERATELY)
5  LIGERAZO         (silva j)BRAVO MISAEL 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by STANFORD out of TINDERELLA by ROYAL APPLAUSE)
6  MY BUDDY GEORGE         (silva l)ARBOLEDA ALDO 121 5.00    
  (by SMILING TIGER out of ENGLISH ROYAL by CITY ZIP)
7  BY DECREED         (kereluk edw)MORALES ALLYSSA 121 4.00 25% 3.10    
  (by JIMMY CREED out of A P PEPPER by A. P. WARRIOR)
8  SQUEEZE THE DAY         (eikleberry kevi)CORBETT W 118 3.00 31% 2.20    
  (by LOTSA MISCHIEF out of SQUEEZE ME by PAPA CLEM)
9  INXPRESS         (guerra ja)VALENZUELA A 118 6.00    
  (by BODEXPRESS out of LOVE OF ART by DECLARATION OF WAR)
 
TUP-4   04/11/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4K) Purse ($14K) 4UP ALL PT- 5:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ESTEEMED Oct25 Oct15 Sep30 Sep15 May05 (macvittie)IRONEYES R 119 20.00    
2  RHODIUM RUNNER Mar18 Feb21 Jan25 Jan12 Oct27 (christian bill)ENRIQUEZ D 124 15.00    
3  BIG SCOTT DADDY Mar18 Feb21 Jan24 Jan12 Jan02 (barraza raf)MORALES ROBERTO 124 3.00 69% 0.50    
4  TRACK BOUND Mar18 Feb29 Feb20 Feb06 Jan18 (alvarez sergi)ARBOLEDA ALDO 124 20.00    
5  ABRAAJ MIRAGE Mar19 Sep17 Aug19 Jul30 Jul16 (toye joe)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 4.00 ★    
6  FIGHT ME Mar25 Mar11 Feb26 Feb12 Jan30 (figueroa )KELLENBERGER KODY 124 20.00    
7  LIL MIRACLE MAN Mar18 Jan28 Jan05 Nov12 Oct14 (cruz pea)CRUZ M 124 5.00 6% 16.60    
8  BRICKHOUSE Mar18 Mar05 Feb14 Jan19 Nov13 (leon alexis)MORALES ALLYSSA 124 20.00    
9  HUMBLEBUMBLEFUMBLE Dec10 Nov25 Oct29 Oct13 Sep16 (si)DA FAUSTO 124 6.00    
10  TAINO Mar19 Feb20 Jan30 Dec05 Nov26 (denny travi)MCGREGOR KIAMAN 124 20.00    
11  MORE HONOR Mar25 Mar13 Feb21 Oct25 Sep02 (tate mary)PENA BRYAN 124 4.50 5% 19.00    
12  ARIMONY Apr02 Mar25 Feb21 Jan30 Jan19 (torres-ca)VALENZUELA A 124 15.00 ★    
 
TUP-5   04/11/2024 2970ft DIRT RC11 FAST nongraded Stake Purse ($30K) 2 ALL PT- 6:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RED HOT SERMON         (lucarelli fran)ENRIQUEZ D 118 5.00    
  (by ROUSING SERMON out of FURIOUS FIRE by GRINDSTONE)
SCR  ROLLING MY EYES         (evans j)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 118 12.00    
  (by EZ EFFORT out of MS MUMBA by ROCKPORT HARBOR)
3  CHASIN A DOLLAR         (fuentes ru)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MR. BIG out of NOVEL TWIST by HOLY BULL)
4  CASCABEL         (silva jos)VALENZUELA A 121 3.50 25% 3.00    
  (by DADS CAPS out of DANCE HALL DAYS by SEEKING DAYLIGHT)
5  T B'S GRAY         (birdwell tena)CRUZ M 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MASTERY out of DYNAMIC MIZZES K by MIZZEN MAST)
6  BOTTLE CAPS         (williams )KELLENBERGER KODY 121 15.00    
  (by DADS CAPS out of AWESOME FOREVER by AWESOME AGAIN)
7  CACTUS JANE         (evans justin)REYES R 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by EZ EFFORT out of LADY JILA by JILA (IRE))
8  NARIZON         (silva j)BRAVO MISAEL 121 6.00    
  (by STANFORD out of ZAKAR by INTO MISCHIEF)
9  DANCING PORKY         (silva l)ARBOLEDA ALDO 121 8.00    
  (by HONOR A. P. out of MORNING DANCE by BROKEN VOW)
10  JUST CALL ME LUCKY         (eikleberry kevi)CORBETT W 118 3.00 28% 2.50    
  (by GORMLEY out of LUCKY LAST by LOTSA MISCHIEF)
 
TUP-6   04/11/2024 7260ft TURF RC11 FIRM Wildcat Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MIDNIGHT JOSTAR Feb11 Apr08 Mar09 Nov04 Oct08 (cerin vladi)HERRERA A 122 4.00    
  (by MIDNIGHT LUTE out of STAR OF JOHAR by JOHAR)
SCR  PRIMO TOUCH Apr04 Jul24 Jun28 Nov13 Oct13 (silva l)ARBOLEDA ALDO 120 8.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of MARY'S DERBY ROSE by SIGHTSEEING)
3  DARK MARCUS Mar22 Feb16 Dec30 Dec08 Nov19 (bainum kelly)CONTRERAS LUIS 120 15.00    
  (by DECLARATION OF WAR out of MARALAGO by THUNDER GULCH)
4  NASHVILLE SKYLINE Mar28 Mar12 Jan30 Jan06 Dec03 (homer jas)VALENZUELA A 120 12.00    
  (by TAMARKUZ out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
5  KENNEBEC Mar28 Mar03 Jan28 Dec29 Nov23 (silva jr)PENA BRYAN 124 2.50 20% 4.00    
  (by LOOKIN AT LUCKY out of THISDANSEISTAKEN by GATORS N BEARS)
6  YANKEE DOLLAR Mar14 Feb19 Dec23 Dec02 Nov18 (vitali j)LOPEZ KARLO 119 3.50 32% 2.10    
  (by CALIFORNIA CHROME out of RED NECK SONG by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
7  TEXTHELEGEND Mar21 Mar06 Feb12 Jan30 Dec19 (mcfarlane d)ESPINOZA ASSAEL 124 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of LIFE'S BLESSINGS by TAPIT)
8  MR. WHO Mar28 Feb29 Feb12 Feb01 Nov13 (si)DA FAUSTO 124 5.00 18% 4.50    
  (by KANTHAROS out of EVEN ROAD by STEPHEN GOT EVEN)
 
TUP-7   04/11/2024 2970ft DIRT RC11 FAST nongraded Stake Purse ($30K) 2 ALL PT- 7:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STREET GUN         (schnell don)PENA BRYAN 121 5.00    
  (by BODEXPRESS out of FANTASTIC COUSIN by COZZENE)
2  VERN'S SHOWSTOPPER         (evans j)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by LOTSA MISCHIEF out of SHOWSTOPPER ELLA by MINISTERS WILD CAT)
3  HOLLYWOOD IMPACT         (silva l)CRUZ M 121 3.00 28% 2.50    
  (by DYNAMIC IMPACT out of CIELO DULCE by CAHILL ROAD)
4  ROCKNTHECLUBHOUSE         (mccartney j)MCGREGOR KIAMAN 121 8.00    
  (by CLUBHOUSE RIDE out of HARD WAY TEN by ROCK HARD TEN)
5  CASH ASSETS         (evans justin)REYES R 121 6.00    
  (by BODEXPRESS out of ALLOWANCES by STREET SENSE)
6  REBOSO         (silva j)BRAVO MISAEL 121 4.00 25% 3.00    
  (by STAY THIRSTY out of HEAVENLY PRIDE by SKY MESA)
7  BIG BOWIE         (lucarelli frank)RADKE K 121 8.00    
  (by MR. BIG out of BE MY BABY by OGYGIAN)
SCR  JUST TRUST ME         (williams dew)AGUILAR DANIEL 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by BODEXPRESS out of TRUST FUND KITTY by KITTEN'S JOY)
9  DESERT BREEZE         (guerra ja)VALENZUELA A 121 8.00    
  (by SIR PRANCEALOT out of CAPE ALAVA by CAPE BLANCO)
10  HIGH FEVER         (mendez luis)ESPINOZA ASSAEL 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by AFLEET ALEX out of C C EINSTEIN by EINSTEIN (BRZ))
 
TUP-8   04/11/2024 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($40K) Purse ($34K) 4UP ALL PT- 7:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MARKS HIP Mar08 Feb11 Jan06 Nov18 Oct14 (bainum kelly)CONTRERAS LUIS 122 4.50    
2  GINOBILI Mar08 Jan19 Feb18 Jan14 Nov20 (miller pete)HERRERA A 122 2.50 28% 2.50    
3  DESHAMBEAU Mar14 Feb12 Dec09 Nov18 Oct29 (lucarelli frank)RADKE K 122 10.00    
4  COASTAL KID Mar20 Aug20 Jul23 Jun25 May27 (silva-mar)VALENZUELA A 122 12.00 22% 3.50    
5  KEEN HEIR Mar28 Mar06 Feb20 Feb06 Jan06 (mcfarlane l)LOPEZ KARLO 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
6  TRUTH SEEKER Mar14 Feb15 Jan29 Nov28 Oct21 (barraza rafael )CORBETT W 122 4.00 25% 2.90    
SCR  MIDNIGHT MAMMOTH Mar23 Feb24 Jan19 Jan07 Nov26 (dollase craig)AYUSO ARMANDO 122 5.00    
8  OVIATT CLASS Mar08 Dec31 Nov11 Aug12 Jun18 (cerin vladi)ESPINOZA ASSAEL 122 3.50    
 
TUP-9   04/11/2024 4290ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($20K) Purse ($32.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SEA TO SUCCESS Mar28 Mar14 Feb27 Feb01 Dec20 (martinez )VALENZUELA A 122 4.50 7% 14.20    
2  MONGOLIAN MEMORY Feb17 Apr10 Mar07 Feb11 Jan13 (tubbs scott)CRUZ M 122 20.00 6% 15.60    
3  STONE CARVER Mar20 Oct08 Sep24 Aug25 Aug04 (anderson go)MORALES ALLYSSA 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  EVER A REBEL Feb01 Dec21 Nov21 Oct14 Aug12 (evans justin)REYES R 122 10.00    
5  PRISONER Feb19 Feb01 Dec29 Nov19 Aug18 (evans justin)CORBETT W 122 5.00 54% 0.90    
6  CLAVICHORD Dec12 Oct04 Sep04 Jul30 Jun16 (dennison h)LOPEZ KARLO 122 15.00    
7  MAIUS Sep02 Aug20 Jul09 Jun18 Oct04 (martinez a)CONTRERAS LUIS 122 15.00    
8  IMPOSSIBLE TASK Mar28 Feb12 Jan05 Dec17 Nov26 (ortiz manuel )AYUSO ARMANDO 122 10.00    
9  RONAMO Feb12 Dec12 Nov07 Oct04 Aug20 (barraza ra)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 122 4.00 7% 13.00    
10  SOL DEL SUR Mar13 Feb18 Jan21 Dec09 Nov19 (belvoir van)ESPINOZA ASSAEL 124 1.60    
 
TUP-10   04/11/2024 5280ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($12.5K) Purse ($31.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 8:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DRAMATIZER Feb09 Jan13 Dec30 Oct23 Oct02 (tamayo isidro)PENA BRYAN 122 8.00    
2  RIVETING SPIRIT Mar25 Mar06 Feb02 Jan05 Dec03 (silva jr)CRUZ M 122 6.00 11% 8.40    
3  ICE QUEEN Mar01 Feb16 Dec31 Jun16 Jun02 (fuentes ru)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 122 3.00 5% 19.00    
4  SHE'S A BOSSY GIRL Mar25 Mar04 Feb06 Jan04 Oct02 (vitali j)LOPEZ KARLO 122 15.00    
SCR  LORRAINE'S LEGACY Mar19 Jan03 Dec22 Oct19 Aug24 (gangidino lisa)NEGRON LUIS 124 5.00 5% 18.10    
6  CORPORAL VIOLETTE (IRE) Mar15 Jan12 Dec17 Nov10 Oct20 (ortiz sr)CORBETT W 122 10.00    
7  DOLLY MAY (IRE) Mar15 Feb15 Jan12 Nov12 Oct14 (cerin vladimi)AYUSO ARMANDO 122 4.00 ★    
8  INVINCIBELLA (GB) Mar25 Mar18 Feb17 Jan20 Dec16 (martinez )VALENZUELA A 122 10.00    
9  FLO TIME Oct11 Sep09 Aug07 Jul22 Jul08 (martinez o )MORALES ROBERTO 122 20.00    
10  JEWEL AZUL Mar19 Feb27 Jan31 Aug12 Jul19 (woolley ben)ESPINOZA ASSAEL 122 8.00 59% 0.70    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.