Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Arapahoe Park
Sunday - September 10, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ARP-1   WIN (2/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/5)-(2/5) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
ARP-2   WIN (5/4/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/4/7)-(5/4/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/4/7)-(5/4/7)-(5/4/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
ARP-3   WIN (3/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/5)-(3/5) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
ARP-6   WIN (2/1/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/1/6)-(2/1/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/1/6)-(2/1/6)-(2/1/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
ARP-8   WIN (8/7/2/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/7/2/6)-(8/7/2/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/7/2/6)-(8/7/2/6)-(8/7/2/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ARP-1   09/10/2023 3630ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($3.5K) Purse ($6.2K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ARIMONY Sep03 Aug19 Aug05 Jul23 Jul15 (torres-casas)JOURNET JARRED 124 12.00    
2  CHUCK NAZTY Sep02 Aug19 Aug06 Jul10 Jan14 (martinez a)WALES T 121 4.00 36% 1.80    
3  OPTIMAL Aug19 Aug06 Jul29 Jul02 Jun25 (rushton temple)RAMOS B 124 2.00    
5  JIMBO'S BIZ Sep04 Aug19 Jul29 Jul16 Jul02 (rushton stacy)HAAR NATHAN 124 20.00 24% 3.20    
SCR  PAYNTER'S BOY Sep03 Aug14 Sep19 Aug08 Aug01 ( )TBA null      
 
ARP-2   09/10/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($2.5K) Purse ($5K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  THORNISH Aug26 Aug19 Jul29 Jul02 Jun09 (hibdon mark)MORALES ROBERTO 124 3.50    
2  TIGER THE MAN Sep03 Aug05 Jul17 Jul01 Jun17 (young a)LULL E 124 4.50    
3  MEAN CANNON Aug19 Aug05 May16 Apr12 Mar14 (vicchrilli rus)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 10.00    
4  BIG BIZ Aug26 Aug14 Jul30 Jul15 Jun24 (haar j)WALES T 124 2.50 21% 3.70    
5  TOMBI Sep04 Aug13 Jul23 Jul15 Jul03 (rushton temple)RAMOS B 121 4.00 23% 3.40    
6  PODEROSO EQUS Aug06 Jul23 Jul10 Jul02 Apr22 (rushton stacy)HAAR NATHAN 124 8.00    
7  VICTORY BOULEVARD Aug05 Jul10 Jun18 Apr26 Apr15 (long vaughn)RAMEY CASH 119 12.00 21% 3.80    
 
ARP-3   09/10/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4K) Purse ($6.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  NO LIMITATION Sep04 Aug26 Jul31 Jul17 Jun24 (chavez juan)MORALES ROBERTO 124 15.00    
2  FERRARI ROAD Aug13 Jul31 Jul15 Jul03 Jun17 (muckey john)HAAR NATHAN 124 10.00    
3  WILLTOBELUCKY Aug13 Jul17 Jul03 Jun17 May05 (barraza s)WALES T 124 4.50 39% 1.60    
SCR  GIMME SPACE Sep03 Aug13 Jul23 Apr15 Apr07 (childs russell)LUARK T 124 20.00    
5  RENVYLE May19 Jun03 May20 Apr30 Apr10 (young a)LULL E 124 15.00 27% 2.80    
SCR  DIVINE TASK Sep04 Aug26 Aug14 Jul31 Jul17 (hall monk)RAMOS B 121 2.50    
7  KNIGHTED Aug26 Aug13 Jul29 Jul10 Jun19 (muckey john)MORALES ALLYSSA 124 8.00    
8  DOCS CARO CAT Sep02 Aug21 Aug12 Jul30 Oct01 (vicchrilli rus)MCNEIL BRYAN 121 3.50    
 
ARP-6   09/10/2023 5940ft DIRT RC11 FAST Butch Gleason Classic Purse ($32.05K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TUFF WILLY TE Aug20 Aug05 Jul15 Jun18 Oct04 (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 124 3.50 11% 8.40    
  (by TULSA TE out of DINERA by LATENT HEAT)
2  FIRST CALL Aug20 Jul09 Apr22 Mar21 Feb25 (kenney dan)MORALES ROBERTO 124 2.50 63% 0.60    
  (by UH OH BANGO out of MYSTERY ME by BWANA CHARLIE)
3  COLLUSIONIST Aug20 Jul22 Jul01 Jun19 Nov04 (martinez a)WALES T 124 1.00    
  (by EZ EFFORT out of PRETTY AMAZING by BENCHMARK)
4  HOLD TIGHT Aug20 Aug05 Jul15 Apr24 Sep20 (shipp michael)RAMEY CASH 124 6.00    
  (by CANDY RIDE out of SECURELY by UNCLE MO)
5  THREE FOR THREE Aug14 Jul29 Jul02 Jun18 Jun02 (parsons riley)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 20.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of RATE OF EXCHANGE by EXCHANGE RATE)
6  WAGER NO MO Aug12 Jul30 Jul15 Jul01 May06 (deisley gale)RAMOS B 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MO TOM out of ZIPPY WAGER by CITY ZIP)
 
ARP-8   09/10/2023 3960ft DIRT RC11 FAST Gold Rush Futurity Purse ($53.3K) 2 ALL PT- 5:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EZ FITZ Aug13 Jul29       (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 120 4.00    
  (by EZ EFFORT out of SNICKEL FITZ by SEATTLE FITZ (ARG))
2  LITE RANCHIN KID Aug19         (barraza raf)MORALES ROBERTO 120 4.50 16% 5.10    
  (by LEMON DROP KID out of LORELEI'S SONG by AMERI VALAY)
3  ACES OVER DEUCES Jul08 May06 Apr15     (villamar candelari)LULL E 120 6.00    
  (by FRANK CONVERSATION out of A DROP DEAD DIVA by HENNY HUGHES)
4  WHAT THE HEY Aug19 Jul16 Jul04     (triana juan )JOURNET JARRED 120 8.00    
  (by FLAT OUT out of HEY BABY by SAVE BIG MONEY)
5  TOOMANYNAMES Aug19         (rushton stacy)MCNEIL BRYAN 120 20.00    
  (by JIMMY CREED out of GREATEST SHOW by STORM CAT)
6  ZORINA Jul29         (moreno ca)MEDINA ANGEL 120 12.00 12% 7.20    
  (by ENTICED out of MAGDALENA'S MOMENT by HARBOR THE GOLD)
7  SARAH'S BIG BANG Aug27 Jul23 Jul09     (kemper kerry)RAMOS B 120 3.50 23% 3.30    
  (by UH OH BANGO out of SARAH IN CHARGE by HIGH BRITE)
8  FERRARI RED Aug13 Jul16       (martinez a)WALES T 120 2.50 26% 2.90    
  (by CINCO CHARLIE out of COOPER'S KEEPER by TEMPLE CITY)
9  BIG MOONIE Jul16 May06 Apr15     (villamar candela)RAMEY CASH 120 20.00    
  (by CAT BURGLAR out of MOONIE by SQUARE EDDIE)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.