Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Colonial Downs
Saturday - August 19, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CNL-1   WIN (4/3/6/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/3/6/2)-(4/3/6/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/3/6/2)-(4/3/6/2)-(4/3/6/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/3/6/2)-(2/3/1/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (4/3/6/2)-(2/3/1/5)-(7/3/9/8) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CNL-2   WIN (2/3/1/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/3/1/5)-(2/3/1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/3/1/5)-(2/3/1/5)-(2/3/1/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/3/1/5)-(7/3/9/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (2/3/1/5)-(7/3/9/8)-(4/5/6) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CNL-3   WIN (7/3/9/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/3/9/8)-(7/3/9/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/3/9/8)-(7/3/9/8)-(7/3/9/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/3/9/8)-(4/5/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/3/9/8)-(4/5/6)-(2/4/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CNL-4   WIN (4/5/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/5/6)-(4/5/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/5/6)-(4/5/6)-(4/5/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/5/6)-(2/4/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/5/6)-(2/4/1)-(7/5/3/4) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CNL-5   WIN (2/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/4/1)-(2/4/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/4/1)-(2/4/1)-(2/4/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/4/1)-(7/5/3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/4/1)-(7/5/3/4)-(9/5/8/4) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CNL-6   WIN (7/5/3/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/5/3/4)-(7/5/3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/5/3/4)-(7/5/3/4)-(7/5/3/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/5/3/4)-(9/5/8/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (7/5/3/4)-(9/5/8/4)-(8/6/2/4) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CNL-7   WIN (9/5/8/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/5/8/4)-(9/5/8/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/5/8/4)-(9/5/8/4)-(9/5/8/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (9/5/8/4)-(8/6/2/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (9/5/8/4)-(8/6/2/4)-(11/7/8/6/4) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CNL-8   WIN (8/6/2/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/6/2/4)-(8/6/2/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/6/2/4)-(8/6/2/4)-(8/6/2/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/6/2/4)-(11/7/8/6/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
CNL-9   WIN (11/7/8/6/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (11/7/8/6/4)-(11/7/8/6/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (11/7/8/6/4)-(11/7/8/6/4)-(11/7/8/6/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CNL-1   08/19/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LORD OF MISCHIEF Aug04         (munoz carlos)TOLEDO JEVIAN 119 8.00    
  (by LORD NELSON out of TENACIOUS HEART by INTO MISCHIEF)
2  XKUZ Aug10 Jan26 Dec30 Oct19 Oct05 (dolan jeann)CASIQUE URBARDO 124 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TAMARKUZ out of STROMBOLIAN by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
3  RIVOLI Jun20 May03 Apr14 Feb24 Nov03 (west etha)HERNANDEZ J 119 2.00 23% 3.40    
  (by CLASSIC EMPIRE out of HALFCAUSE by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
4  PENZANCE Jul22 Jul02       (stidham mi)SANCHEZ J 119 1.40 38% 1.60    
  (by UNCLE MO out of PENWITH by BERNARDINI)
5  SENSE OF GOLDEN         (cascallare)ALONSO LUIS 124 30.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of SMART JILLY by SMART STRIKE)
6  CATALINA EXPRESS Aug04 Jun23 May28 Apr21 Jan19 (rodriguez ang)CARDOSO DAVID 119 4.00 17% 5.00    
  (by ADIOS CHARLIE out of GILDED ARROW by GOLDEN MISSILE)
7  RAMBUNCTIOUS RIDE         (soldo elaine)GOLIBRZUCH S 119 30.00    
  (by FREE DROP BILLY out of ADIMARIDE by CARNIVALAY)
 
CNL-2   08/19/2023 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($75K) 2 ALL PT- 2:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SASSE'S CLASS Jul14         (milosevic milan)RUIZ JORGE 119 3.00 13% 6.60    
  (by TONALIST out of NO SATIS ACTION by ACTION THIS DAY)
2  YAHMO Jul14         (stidham )GALLARDO A 119 1.20 38% 1.60    
  (by CATHOLIC BOY out of LADY GRANTHAM by YANKEE GENTLEMAN)
3  BLUE CREEK Aug03         (brion keri)BOYCE FOREST 119 4.50 27% 2.70    
  (by DEMARCHELIER out of GRANDMA FRAN by STREET BOSS)
4  WORK HARD Jul27         (capuano gary )TOLEDO JEVIAN 119 5.00    
  (by AUDIBLE out of PEARLS by BLACK TIE AFFAIR (IRE))
5  WILMA FLINTSHIRE Jul22         (godsey ka)HERNANDEZ J 116 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by FLINTSHIRE out of WEATHER GIRL by ARTIE SCHILLER)
6  STREET ROCKIN         (ashby lynn)FUENTES MARIO 119 15.00    
  (by STREET MAGICIAN out of NICKYROCKSFORPOPS by ROCK SLIDE)
7  STARLIFTER         (schoentha)CARRASCO R 119 10.00    
  (by FIRST MONDAYS out of DEEDS NOT WORDS by STREET SENSE)
 
CNL-3   08/19/2023 5940ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($16K) Purse ($34.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:28
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JUST DEAL WITH IT Jul20 Jun17 Jan11 Dec31 Nov14 (escobar alison)RUIZ JORGE 122 15.00    
2  RECONVENE Aug04 Jul29 Jul15 Jun20 May27 (lawrence )CARRASCO R 122 4.00    
3  FAST PAYDAY Jul01 Apr22 Mar22 Mar03 Jan13 (manning de)SANCHEZ J 122 4.00 29% 2.50    
4  ASSERT DOMINANCE Aug03 Jul16 Jul07 Jun17 May28 (mcgoey m)VILLALOBOS ISMERIO 122 30.00    
SCR  GLOBAL SENSATION Jul20 May17 Mar11 Feb17 Dec31 (stidham m)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 122 2.50    
6  ERLAN Aug03 Jul14 Jun30 Jun18 May06 (cascallares)CASIQUE URBARDO 122 15.00    
7  C MY MEISTER Feb16 Jan05 Dec08 Nov05 Oct05 (danner k)GALLARDO A 122 2.00 39% 1.60    
8  FINGAL Aug03 Jul20 Jan22 Jan13   (kingsley archi)ASHTON GAVIN 122 30.00 5% 19.00    
9  HOMETOWN HERO Aug03 Jul03 Jun20 Jun06 May30 (morgan carla)JIMENEZ MANNY 122 15.00 8% 11.70    
 
CNL-4   08/19/2023 3630ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($70K) 2 F PT- 3:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAINSTREAM SELLOUT Aug05 Jun22       (saville niall)ASHTON GAVIN 118 30.00    
2  JUDY ELAINE Jul20 Jul06 Jun16     (brown paul)SANCHEZ J 120 8.00    
SCR  MAMA MARGE Jul20         (contrer)NUNEZ MAURICIO 120 1.80    
4  DETERMINED SAIL Jul13         (schoenth)GALLARDO A 118 2.50 51% 0.90    
5  APRIL CLOVER Jul11 Jun21 May31 May11   (asmussen )HERNANDEZ J 118 3.50 19% 4.40    
6  ZO LEE Jul20         (danner kelsey)RUIZ JORGE 120 4.50 8% 11.00    
7  ATMIDNIGHT Jul22         (saville niall)TOLEDO JEVIAN 120 15.00    
 
CNL-5   08/19/2023 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($75K) 2 ALL PT- 3:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  UNDERSTUDY KITTY         (matz r)RUIZ JORGE 119 4.50 11% 8.10    
  (by KITTEN'S JOY out of THEATRIC by BERNARDINI)
2  RUDDY BUDDY Jul27         (werneth rober)FUENTES MARIO 119 1.40 41% 1.50    
  (by MSHAWISH out of KATANGA by MAXIOS (GB))
3  CONCENTRATION Jul14         (lauer michael)ROCCO S 119 8.00    
  (by TAMARKUZ out of THREE SPOKES by DAAHER)
4  DESTIN'S RAINBOW Jul21 Jun04       (meyers madiso)TOLEDO JEVIAN 119 3.00 14% 6.30    
  (by DESTIN out of BECKY'S RAINBOW by INDYGO SHINER)
5  HYTECK PRINCE         (lawrence )CARRASCO R 119 5.00    
  (by MOHAYMEN out of CLASS E HOLIDAY by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
6  THANKMYLUCKYMOONS         (cooney s)AVILES YAN 119 15.00    
  (by MADEFROMLUCKY out of MOON STEPPER by LO BUCKER)
SCR  BLAME THE TUX         (morgan carla)JIMENEZ MANNY 119 12.00    
  (by HOLY BOSS out of BLAME THE DRESS by BLAME)
 
CNL-6   08/19/2023 5610ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($87.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BEAUTIFUL GORGEOUS Aug02 Jun18 May27     (george lai)SANCHEZ J 125 10.00    
2  CAINUDOTHETWIST Aug11 Aug03 Nov06 Oct29 Oct02 (kingsley archi)ASHTON GAVIN 125 20.00    
3  DON'T TELL DEREN Aug04 Jun17 May28 May05 Apr13 (robb j)PEREZ XAVIER 118 6.00 11% 8.10    
4  DETERMINED GOLD Jul13 Jun13 May24 Apr28 Sep30 (schoentha)CARRASCO R 123 8.00 7% 13.40    
5  NEXT EPISODE Aug03 Jul01 Jun10 Nov27 Oct24 (saville niall)TOLEDO JEVIAN 118 1.80 28% 2.50    
6  MY BOSS LADY Aug10 Jul15 Jun17 Feb17 Feb04 (lawrence james)ROCCO S 125 20.00    
7  DETERMINED CHARM Aug03 Jul15 Jun13 Dec03 Nov18 (schoenth)GALLARDO A 123 1.20 33% 2.10    
 
CNL-7   08/19/2023 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($75K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BAND LEADER Aug05 Sep07       (williams )HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 124 3.00    
  (by BANDBOX out of APONI by INDIAN CHARLIE)
2  WAITTILMIDNITEHOUR Aug05         (trombetta )SANCHEZ J 114 20.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of CLOCKSTRUCKTWELVE by MALIBU MOON)
SCR  BATTLE OF BASTOGNE Aug05 Jul21 Jun09     (trombett)GALLARDO A 124 6.00    
  (by STREET MAGICIAN out of VIELSALM by FAIRBANKS)
4  MANSUETO         (rawles alcina)AVILES YAN 119 30.00 8% 10.90    
  (by CLOUD COMPUTING out of BEST MANNERS by PARTY MANNERS)
5  KAMIKAZE FOX Aug05 Jul22 Aug23 Aug08 Jul18 (morgan carla)JIMENEZ MANNY 119 5.00 16% 5.10    
  (by BOURBON COURAGE out of SANTOSHA by COLONEL JOHN)
6  LOTHARIO Aug05         (nagle sarah)TOLEDO JEVIAN 119 8.00    
  (by THE FACTOR out of UBU by SILVER TRAIN)
7  CECIL THE GREAT Aug05         (clement p)ACOSTA D 119 8.00    
  (by LIMEHOUSE out of PRACTICAL IDEAS by PROSPECT BAY)
8  RENNIE Aug05 Jul22 Oct30 Oct02 Sep17 (godsey d)ASHTON GAVIN 124 3.50 8% 10.80    
  (by GREAT NOTION out of CAPE COD BAY by CAPE TOWN)
9  CHEATIN SONG Aug05 Jul22 Jul15     (aguirre anthony)RUIZ JORGE 124 4.50 38% 1.60    
  (by TAPIZAR out of IF NOT FOR LUST by NOT FOR LOVE)
 
CNL-8   08/19/2023 5610ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($80K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MISTY MAUVE Jul27 Jul15 May19 May13 Apr29 (sanchez-s)HERNANDEZ J 123 30.00    
2  CUPID'S STRIKE Jul15 Jun18 Oct20 Sep18 Aug19 (farrior antho)TOLEDO JEVIAN 123 5.00 11% 8.00    
3  CHACALOSA Aug02 Jul12 Jun11 May15 Feb20 (zook w)AVILES YAN 123 15.00    
4  LALOBA FEROZ Jun16 May05 Apr23 Feb11 Dec28 (cascallares n)JIMENEZ MANNY 123 20.00 7% 13.10    
5  STAR RULES Jul22 Jul01 May20 Apr27 Nov12 (huffman ke)ALONSO LUIS 123 30.00    
6  DREAMSTER Jul29 Jun25 Apr30 Mar26 Feb26 (lightner mary)RUIZ JORGE 123 6.00 23% 3.40    
7  LADY PUCHI Jul15 Jun21 May18 Apr12 Nov25 (sanchez-sa)SANCHEZ J 123 2.50    
8  FULL COUNT FELICIA Nov19 Sep06 Aug01 Jun24 May28 (russell )GALLARDO A 123 1.00 38% 1.60    
 
CNL-9   08/19/2023 3630ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BELLA FUTURE Jun09 Apr15 Mar17 Feb18 Jan21 (cazares )GALLARDO A 122 10.00    
2  PROUD CIVILIAN Jul27 Jul06 Oct08 Sep07 Aug18 (brinkman bret)TOLEDO JEVIAN 122 6.00    
SCR  JETAROS Jul27 Jun10 May20 Apr23 Apr07 (pompay t)VILLALOBOS ISMERIO 118 30.00    
4  BEST DEFENSE Jul14 Jun16 Apr16 Mar19 Feb22 (wasiluk jr)ACOSTA D 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
5  FUN NOTION Jul27 Jun09 May19     (white alexandr)BOYCE FOREST 118 12.00    
6  VOCALIZE Jul27 Jun25 Oct13 Sep18 Aug29 (de ho)CARRASCO R 122 15.00 8% 11.90    
7  DARK AND FITZY Aug04 Mar18 Feb15 Dec28 Jan06 (sillaman richa)ROCCO S 122 4.50 25% 3.00    
8  EMBOLDEN Jul15 Jun07 Nov27 Oct23 Oct09 (trombetta )SANCHEZ J 122 5.00 16% 5.40    
SCR  MIDASWELLRUN Jul31 Jun29 Jun10 May19 Nov19 (blair jordan)CASTANON L 122 4.50    
SCR  YAMIL Jun30         (escobar alison)RUIZ JORGE 118 30.00    
11  WHENIGETTOHEAVEN Jul20 Jun11 May11 Jun17 May05 (trombetta micha)GARCIA LUIS 124 3.50 27% 2.70    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.