Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Tampa Bay Downs
Wednesday - March 29, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

TAM-1   WIN (1/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/5)-(1/5) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (1/5)-(3/5/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (1/5)-(3/5/1)-(4/3/5) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
TAM-2   WIN (3/5/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/5/1)-(3/5/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/5/1)-(3/5/1)-(3/5/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/5/1)-(4/3/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/5/1)-(4/3/5)-(2/5/1/4) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
TAM-3   WIN (4/3/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/3/5)-(4/3/5/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (4/3/5)-(4/3/5/6)-(4/3/5/6) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (4/3/5)-(2/5/1/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/3/5)-(2/5/1/4)-(6/4) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
TAM-4   WIN (2/5/1/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/5/1/4)-(2/5/1/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/5/1/4)-(2/5/1/4)-(2/5/1/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/5/1/4)-(6/4) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (2/5/1/4)-(6/4)-(6/3/1) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
TAM-5   WIN (6/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/4)-(6/4/5) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (6/4)-(6/4/5)-(6/4/5) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (6/4)-(6/3/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (6/4)-(6/3/1)-(8/6/5/1) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
TAM-6   WIN (6/3/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/3/1)-(6/3/1/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (6/3/1)-(6/3/1/5)-(6/3/1/5) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (6/3/1)-(8/6/5/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/3/1)-(8/6/5/1)-(4/5/2/9/1) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
TAM-7   WIN (8/6/5/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/6/5/1)-(8/6/5/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/6/5/1)-(8/6/5/1)-(8/6/5/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/6/5/1)-(4/5/2/9/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (8/6/5/1)-(4/5/2/9/1)-(10/3/4) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
TAM-8   WIN (4/5/2/9/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/5/2/9/1)-(4/5/2/9/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/5/2/9/1)-(4/5/2/9/1)-(4/5/2/9/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (4/5/2/9/1)-(10/3/4) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
TAM-9   WIN (10/3/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (10/3/4)-(10/3/4/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (10/3/4)-(10/3/4/8)-(10/3/4/8) 18 $0.50 $9.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
TAM-1   03/29/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($14.5K) 4UP M/F PT-12:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
REAL DOOZIE Dec09 Nov27 Oct28 Sep30 Jul09 (arriagada juan)CAMACHO SAMY 118 2.00 43% 1.30    
DIXIELAND DANCER Mar17 Mar08 Feb19 Feb03 Jan15 (machado an)SANCHEZ LEXANDER 118 15.00    
SCR  YEGUITA QUEEN Mar03 Jan27 Dec23 Nov25 Oct21 (barboza vict)BATISTA A 122 3.50 22% 3.50    
MONIQUES DAREDEVIL Mar08 Feb19 Feb08 Jan22 Jan08 (machado a)RODRIGUEZ A 118 12.00    
DR. ANN Mar08 Feb10 Jan08 Dec23 Oct09 (feliciano benny)FELICIANO R 118 4.50 6% 14.60    
MAMBO DANCER (CHI) Feb03 Jan11 Dec28 Sep19 Aug30 (bowersock mari)ALLEN D 118 1.80    
 
TAM-2   03/29/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($20.5K) 3 ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
HOP AND SCOTCH Mar19 Feb26 Feb17 Jan27 Jan07 (lopez mario )BATISTA A 118 4.00 13% 6.90    
MR MURGO Mar15 Oct30 Oct07 Sep11 Aug20 (amado enriqu)ARROYO S 118 10.00    
DIXIEMAGIC Dec28 Dec03 Oct21 Sep12 Aug27 (arnett jo)RODRIGUEZ A 118 2.50 34% 1.90    
SCR  IMAGOODFELLA Jan20 Dec28 Nov25 Oct07 Sep18 (sacco gregory )SUAREZ ANGEL 118 6.00    
MY EAGLE SOARS Mar12 Feb22 Jan14 Dec23 Nov27 (o'connel)GALLARDO A 118 4.50 24% 3.20    
COX CANYON Feb26 Feb05 Jan28 Dec23 Nov30 (sacco gregory )CAMACHO SAMY 118 2.00    
 
TAM-3   03/29/2023 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($15K) 3 F PT- 1:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
JAZHARA Mar17 Feb26       (carrascojr vi)JIMENEZ MANNY 120 6.00    
UNCAPTURED DREAMS Mar04 Feb12 Jan29 Jan01 Dec22 (doming)ROJAS EDUARDO 120 20.00    
LUNITA Mar17 Mar01 Feb10 Jan21 Dec31 (lopez r)ALICEA JEREMY 113 3.50 32% 2.10    
REASONABLY LOVELY Mar17 Jan27 Dec28 Dec04   (o'connell kath)CAMACHO SAMY 120 2.50 37% 1.70    
MISS NEO         (dini mike)ROWLAND MADELINE 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
CHIEF AGAIN Mar10 Feb10       (ramirez l)SUAREZ ANGEL 120 3.00    
KANEM Mar10         (machado a)RODRIGUEZ A 120 3.50    
 
TAM-4   03/29/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($14.5K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ROYAL SQUEEZE Feb17 Jan22 Dec26 Dec09 Oct30 (jackso)ROJAS EDUARDO 118 3.50 15% 5.50    
EXPRESS PHAROAH Feb24 Nov25 Nov04 Sep14 Jul31 (arriagada ju)BATISTA A 120 2.00 30% 2.30    
BLAME BISHOP Mar12 Sep15 Sep03 Aug11 Jul14 (rarick lynn)SOSA LAUREANO 111 15.00    
GOLOVKIN Feb17 Jan27 Jan07 Oct25 Oct04 (kintz matthe)MARIN SAMUEL 120 2.50 14% 6.20    
MR LIGHTNING BOY Feb08 Jan25 Jan04 Dec14 Nov17 (feliciano benny)FELICIANO R 120 6.00 18% 4.50    
HIT BY A WAVE Nov14 Oct18 Oct03 Sep12 Aug22 (philipp karyn)CAMACHO SAMY 118 8.00    
SCR  BEASTFROMTHEEAST Oct04 Sep06 Apr10 Mar25 Mar09 (cascallares n)LUGO D 118 10.00    
 
TAM-5   03/29/2023 3300ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($75K) Purse ($27K) 3 F PT- 2:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MOTOWN MISCHIEF Jan22 Oct10 Sep15 Aug21 Jul24 (hamm timo)RODRIGUEZ A 118 20.00    
DAMASO Feb18 Jan22 Oct03 Sep01 Aug07 (hamm timothy)ARROYO S 118 15.00    
NINETY NINE Feb12         (dini mike)CENTENO E 118 30.00    
GRAND OAK (IRE) Jan18 Oct28 Oct03 Sep06 Aug20 (motion graha)SUAREZ ANGEL 118 6.00 22% 3.50    
KERRY Aug21 Jul24 Jun05 May12   (clement christ)CAMACHO SAMY 118 8.00    
REDIFINED Nov05 Oct08 Aug21 Jun30   (dutrow a)GALLARDO A 118 0.20 54% 0.90    
 
TAM-6   03/29/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($29.5K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PERFECT SPEIGHTY Mar01 Feb12 Jan18 Oct23 Sep13 (wright michael )CENTENO E 119 10.00 7% 13.70    
FIGURETI (CHI) Feb25 Feb10 Jan19 Nov25 Nov06 (sanchez amad)BATISTA A 121 8.00    
WICKED WARRIOR Dec17 Nov19 Aug13 Jul07 Jun03 (feliciano benny)FELICIANO R 119 12.00 25% 3.00    
TOPPER T Feb22 Jan13 Dec14 Sep29 Sep05 (arnett g)CAMACHO SAMY 119 4.50    
NO QUE NO Mar12 Feb26 Feb11 Jan13 Dec31 (gutierrez fa)MENESES MARCOS 119 2.50    
ABOUT TODAY (ARG) Mar12 Feb26 Jan13 Dec14 Oct20 (carrascojr v)ARROYO S 119 2.00 38% 1.70    
WHERE PARADISE LAY Feb26 Feb11 Jan13 Dec14 Oct27 (downing willia)SUAREZ ANGEL 119 5.00    
 
TAM-7   03/29/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($15K) 3 ALL PT- 3:17
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
AXCEL         (manning j)BRACHO A 120 15.00 5% 17.30    
MYSPECIALVALENTINE Mar12 Feb24       (lopez r)ALICEA JEREMY 113 30.00    
SCR  DISCREET DEVIL Mar12 Feb05 Jan04 Aug29 Aug08 (ochoa gerard)MARIN SAMUEL 120 4.50    
MIND FLAYER Mar22 Jan08 Dec23     (machado an)SANCHEZ LEXANDER 120 15.00    
I LIKE BOSTON Mar18 Feb10 Sep25 Jul23 Jun09 (rigattieri john)CENTENO E 120 3.00 7% 12.60    
FISHERMAN OSCAR Feb22 Jan27 Jan08 Nov25 Oct01 (padilla tim)QUINONEZ ALONSO 120 4.00 15% 5.90    
SCR  MORE DRAMA Mar12 Feb05 Jan22 Jan08 Sep11 (hardesty l)MITCHELL RICHARD 120 4.50    
MOCCASIN BEND         (bennett gerald)CAMACHO SAMY 120 2.50 49% 1.10    
 
TAM-8   03/29/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($13K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:47
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SOLDAT TEMPTATION Nov28 Nov09 Oct24 Oct10 Aug04 (posadas pedro)JIMENEZ MANNY 125 3.50 5% 19.00    
SONGTELLER Mar05 Feb25 Jan20 Dec22 Dec09 (baker )ROJAS EDUARDO 125 8.00 13% 6.40    
TOOSWEETFORME Mar08 Feb05 Sep26 Sep05 Aug15 (wismer glenn )WALKER M 123 6.00    
FABULOUS PHILLY Apr29 Apr16 Apr03 Mar09 Jan07 (hamm timo)RODRIGUEZ A 125 4.00 27% 2.80    
PRINCESS TERESKA Mar23 Jan09       (cascallares n)FUENTES MARIO 125 6.00 22% 3.50    
RAIN OF BLESSING Feb25 Feb04 Jan11 Dec23 Nov19 (negrete javi)ARROYO S 125 8.00    
SCR  LUVISANAKI Feb22 Jan13 Nov04     (barboza victo)SOSA LAUREANO 111 6.00    
POLITICAL ASTRAY         (cascallares n)ALICEA JEREMY 118 20.00    
FEEL LIKE GUESSING Feb25 Feb04 Dec30 Dec09 Nov26 (davis rich)ROWLAND MADELINE 125 5.00 11% 7.80    
 
TAM-9   03/29/2023 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($13K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:17
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
RUM NOT BOURBON Feb26 Feb12 Jan18 Apr20 Apr01 (jones dou)HERRERA R 125 12.00    
MOCA MONSTER Oct26 Oct18 Sep21 Aug17 Jul20 (cooper thomas)WALKER M 123 20.00    
DORSODURO Mar10 Feb18 Jan21 Sep30 Feb12 (torres r)MARIN SAMUEL 125 3.00 15% 5.80    
NOT A DANCE Mar04 Feb18 Jan28 Jan11 Dec24 (smith robert)MENESES MARCOS 125 4.00 9% 10.80    
PERSONAL FINANCE Mar18 Feb15 Jan27 Jan18 Dec28 (carrascojr vi)JIMENEZ MANNY 118 20.00    
SCR  PEINADITO Mar10 Feb08 Jan21 Jan08 Dec11 (tsirigotis jr)DIAZ S 125 20.00    
LOCKDOWN LOVER Aug03 Jul13 May26 Feb23 Feb10 (roque elis)COTTO L 125 30.00    
HEAVY WEIGHT Mar04 Feb18 Feb08 Jan18 Jan06 (negrete javi)BATISTA A 125 10.00    
MY WROTE Oct02 Mar06       (cascallares n)LUGO D 125 12.00    
10  GENESIS ONE Mar10 Feb22 Jan18 Dec09 Nov10 (robillard jul)FUENTES MARIO 125 1.80 47% 1.20    
SCR  ROU ONE ASTRAY Sep05         (cascallares n)ALICEA JEREMY 118 12.00 6% 16.50    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.