Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Charles Town
Wednesday - November 15, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

CT-1   WIN (7/8/5/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/8/5/3)-(7/8/5/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/8/5/3)-(7/8/5/3)-(7/8/5/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/8/5/3)-(8/5/3/9) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (7/8/5/3)-(8/5/3/9)-(4/5/6/7) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CT-2   WIN (8/5/3/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/5/3/9)-(8/5/3/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/5/3/9)-(8/5/3/9)-(8/5/3/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/5/3/9)-(4/5/6/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (8/5/3/9)-(4/5/6/7)-(8/2/3/5) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CT-3   WIN (4/5/6/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/5/6/7)-(4/5/6/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/5/6/7)-(4/5/6/7)-(4/5/6/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/5/6/7)-(8/2/3/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (4/5/6/7)-(8/2/3/5)-(7/6/8/1) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CT-4   WIN (8/2/3/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/2/3/5)-(8/2/3/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/2/3/5)-(8/2/3/5)-(8/2/3/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/2/3/5)-(7/6/8/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (8/2/3/5)-(7/6/8/1)-(2/4/1) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CT-5   WIN (7/6/8/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/6/8/1)-(7/6/8/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/6/8/1)-(7/6/8/1)-(7/6/8/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/6/8/1)-(2/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/6/8/1)-(2/4/1)-(3/4/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CT-6   WIN (2/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/4/1)-(2/4/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/4/1)-(2/4/1)-(2/4/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/4/1)-(3/4/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/4/1)-(3/4/1)-(8/3/5) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
CT-7   WIN (3/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/4/1)-(3/4/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/4/1)-(3/4/1)-(3/4/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/4/1)-(8/3/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
CT-8   WIN (8/3/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/3/5)-(8/3/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (8/3/5)-(8/3/5)-(8/3/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
CT-1   11/15/2023 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($5K) Purse ($10.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
RED RIVER SUSI Oct25 Oct12 Sep22 Sep09 Jul22 (deiter kel)LATCHMAN RESHAWN 122 12.00    
EMBRACEABLE Oct18 Sep29 Sep02 Aug11 Jun30 (viands st)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 122 10.00    
WAVERLEY Oct25 Oct05 Sep14 Aug27 Aug13 (butts e)LARROSA G 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
WILD N' SASSY Oct25 Sep25 Apr20 Mar21 Feb18 (cooper steve)WHITACRE GRANT 122 15.00    
MAGNOLIA ROAD Oct11 Sep29 Sep09 Aug26 Jul04 (jones michae)TROTMAN KEIMAR 124 15.00 9% 10.30    
NELLY TOO Oct05 Sep29 Sep02 Aug10 Jul20 (joy j)RODRIGUEZ V 122 3.50    
LADY CAIRO Oct25 Sep21       (farrior a)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 124 1.20 49% 1.00    
DASHING LASS Nov02 Oct18 Sep21 Sep02 Aug11 (shanley tim)MENDEZ MARSHALL 122 3.00 19% 4.10    
 
CT-2   11/15/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($10.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
I SHALLBE RELEASED Oct26 Oct07 Aug24 Aug11 Jul13 (walters d)BOCACHICA J 113 6.00    
ODINA Oct26 Sep16 Aug24 Jul13 Jun23 (figgins l)PELTROCHE F 120 5.00    
TRACE ESTATE Oct09 Sep18 Sep03 Aug20 Jul24 (ewell s)SIMPSON JASON 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
IMINCHARGENOW Oct26 Sep30 Jul20 Jun17 May04 (schottroffe e)ADAMS L 115 20.00    
DEREKA'S BLUFF Oct13 Sep16 Aug19 Jul28 Jun30 (venham d)BATISTA C 122 4.50 10% 9.10    
PETTYFORURTHOUGHTS Oct26 Oct09 Sep16 Aug19 May11 (meehan eliza)WHITACRE GRANT 120 12.00    
PRINCESS HALO Oct26 Oct13 Sep16 Aug19 Jul28 (craig e)RIVERA JAVIER 122 10.00    
JUST HAVE FAITH Oct13 Sep15 Aug25 Jul14 Apr29 (collins t)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 120 1.60 61% 0.60    
JUJU ON DA BEAT Oct26 Sep30 Sep07 Aug24 Jul20 (adorno jean)MENDEZ MARSHALL 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
CT-3   11/15/2023 2970ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($12.5K) Purse ($16.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GANGSTER AMERICANO Oct25 Oct13       (joy j)MENDEZ MARSHALL 121 8.00    
RUMORGOINGAROUND Oct25 Oct05 Aug18 Aug04 Jul14 (pickett c)BOCACHICA J 115 20.00    
CAJUN CASHEW Sep23 Aug12 Jul22     (keller christop)RODRIGUEZ V 121 2.00    
BET YOUR BOOTS         (groves janice)BATISTA C 124 8.00 26% 2.80    
S S CASINO GIRL Sep03 Aug20 Jun17 May25 May04 (lucas anthony)CHILO MAXIMO 121 4.00 26% 2.80    
MIREYA         (reyes rub)SANTIAGO WILFREDO 122 8.00 10% 9.50    
SWISS HORIZON Oct25 Oct05 Aug18 Jul27 May04 (king yolonda)BOCACHICA O 124 15.00 9% 10.40    
UNALTERED Oct25 Oct05 Aug18 Aug04 Jul22 (stehr j)NUNEZ MAURICIO 121 2.50    
 
CT-4   11/15/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($10.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MR. COWBOY BRADLEY Oct27 Oct14 Sep29 Sep16 Sep08 (deiter kel)LATCHMAN RESHAWN 122 12.00    
BLAME B B Oct19 Oct05 Sep21 Aug02 Jul12 (farrior a)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 122 2.50 15% 5.50    
S S SPARTAN ENERGY Nov01 Sep30 Sep14 Aug19 Aug03 (johnson jamey )ARAUJO DENIS 124 3.00 6% 15.10    
EISELE Oct21 Sep30 Sep14 Jul13 Jun22 (hummer richar)ADAMS L 115 30.00    
SARGENT KOBE Oct25 Sep14 Sep01 Aug19 Jul27 (jones micha)MENDEZ MARSHALL 124 8.00 5% 17.60    
SEIZE THE BREEZE Nov09 Oct19 Oct06 Sep16 Sep08 (sandoval michae)PELTROCHE F 120 12.00    
PERSONAL FINANCE Oct19 Oct06 Sep08 Aug18 Jul28 (adorno je)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 120 8.00    
WINDSOR'S TRACKER Nov08 Oct25 Sep30 Sep14 Aug31 (hurley jack)TROTMAN KEIMAR 124 2.00 50% 1.00    
 
CT-5   11/15/2023 2970ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($12.5K) Purse ($16.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:53
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FAIRPIT Sep23 Jul21 Sep16 Jul30 Jun30 (jones a)RODRIGUEZ V 124 30.00 5% 19.00    
GLASTONBURY Oct26 Sep01 Apr21 Mar23 Mar11 (roadcap j)HERNANDEZ F 124 6.00    
SOUTHERN SAINT Nov02         (fulmer allison)BOCACHICA O 122 12.00    
LONG COOL Oct11 Sep21 Sep01 Jun25 May27 (comi ralph)LATCHMAN RESHAWN 122 6.00    
MO EH HENNESSY Oct14 Sep29 Aug27 Aug05 Jul15 (simone michael)HIRALDO JOHN 122 4.50    
GOLDEN ADAGE Oct13 Sep23 Jul29 Jul01 Jun16 (viands stacey )ARAUJO DENIS 122 3.00 23% 3.30    
AKITO         (farrior a)BOCACHICA J 115 4.00 46% 1.20    
AIR KENNEY Oct27 Sep29 Aug13 May03 Aug06 (hurley jack)TROTMAN KEIMAR 120 3.50 8% 12.10    
BUFF'S CAT Sep22 Sep07 Jul21 Jul07 May19 (pennella rhe)WILLIAMS DEVON 124 30.00    
 
CT-6   11/15/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($15.7K) 3UP M/F PT- 9:21
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SULLIVAN STREET Oct22 Oct05 Aug18 Jul19 Jul02 (eppler e)CRUZ ANGEL 120 3.50 9% 10.50    
BLUE TWIRLIN Sep29 Jul27 Jun10 May13 Jun02 (runco jef)BOCACHICA J 115 1.80 46% 1.20    
CONNECTING FLIGHT Sep26 Aug25 Aug10 Jun17 May13 (davis billy)RODRIGUEZ V 120 8.00    
SKYLAR'S SISTER Oct26 Sep01 Jul15 Jun25 Jun02 (joy j)MENDEZ MARSHALL 120 4.00 17% 5.00    
HARPER'S DO Oct19 Sep21 Aug23 Jun28 Jun18 (serey mar)HERNANDEZ F 120 15.00    
THE MONEY MACHINE Oct18 Sep29 Sep02 Aug10 Jul07 (viands st)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 122 4.50    
HANNAHS RED RUBY Oct28 Oct05 Sep02 Jul13 Jun16 (malgarini mawing)MAWING A 122 20.00    
SCR  AMERICAN DREAMER Sep18 Jul25 Jun15 May18 Dec08 (patterson kev)RIVERA JAVIER 120 12.00    
 
CT-7   11/15/2023 4620ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($27.4K) 3UP M/F PT- 9:49
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ONLY KIDDING Nov03 Jul16 Jun15 Apr20 Mar30 (jones micha)MENDEZ MARSHALL 120 8.00 23% 3.40    
SAVE THE FLAG Oct23 Sep15 Aug12 Jul22 Jun23 (zook w)PELTROCHE F 120 12.00    
DIAL HER Sep08 Aug19 Jun16 May04 Mar25 (runco jef)BOCACHICA J 113 3.50 29% 2.50    
HONEY BELLA Sep30 Sep16 Sep03 Aug06 Jul12 (joy j)TROTMAN KEIMAR 122 4.00 25% 3.10    
SCR  LIVIN' AT THE BU Oct12 Jun07 Jan30 Aug18 Jul31 (rathman el)LATCHMAN RESHAWN 120 8.00    
GRACE AND CHARM Sep22 Sep04 Aug10 Jun15 Mar03 (russell brittany)CRUZ ANGEL 118 6.00    
THUNDERTURTLE Sep14 Sep02 Jul22 Jun17 Feb10 (runco c)CULLUM W 120 12.00    
BREEZY CONNECTION Nov02 Oct06 Sep15 Sep04 Aug26 (brooks geral)BATISTA A 120 2.50    
SCR  UNCAPTURED RUBY Oct20 Jun23 May27 May07 Apr16 (malgarini mawing)MAWING A 120 15.00    
 
CT-8   11/15/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($11.8K) 3UP ALL PT-10:17
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PURSUING PACE Oct21 Sep22 Aug26 Aug17 Jul06 (reynolds joan )ARAUJO DENIS 122 12.00    
STAVANGER Oct28 Aug03 Jul13 Jun22 Jun03 (racanelli mark)RIOS-CONDE A 120 30.00    
DONTINVADEMYSPACE Oct16 Sep28 Sep04 Aug26 Aug21 (brooks gera)MENDEZ MARSHALL 120 3.50 14% 5.90    
AKINGISALWAYSKING Oct28 Oct18 Sep30 Sep07 Aug24 (murtaugh an)MCKENZIE CONNIE 113 10.00    
SUPERSTITIEUX Oct05 Sep24 Sep09 Aug27 Aug19 (serey jr)PELTROCHE F 122 8.00 7% 12.50    
SCR  SPEAKERIT Oct28 Sep30 Sep07 Aug20 Jul29 (kee j)RODRIGUEZ V 122 15.00    
SIR SMOAK Oct21 Oct05 Sep20 Aug27 Aug10 (serey mar)HERNANDEZ F 120 5.00    
VIOLENT ROCK Jul15 Jun23 Dec09 Dec02 Nov18 (ginter raymo)BATISTA A 122 1.20 47% 1.10    
SCR  CENTRAL PRIDE Oct28 Oct05 Aug03 Jun25 Jun04 (hillegass)BOCACHICA J 113 15.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.