Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Charles Town
Saturday - October 21, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CT-1   WIN (5/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/4/3)-(5/4/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/4/3)-(5/4/3)-(5/4/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/4/3)-(2/6/4/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/4/3)-(2/6/4/3)-(4/6/8) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CT-2   WIN (2/6/4/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/6/4/3)-(2/6/4/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/6/4/3)-(2/6/4/3)-(2/6/4/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/6/4/3)-(4/6/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/6/4/3)-(4/6/8)-(5/3/8/1) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CT-3   WIN (4/6/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/6/8)-(4/6/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/6/8)-(4/6/8)-(4/6/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/6/8)-(5/3/8/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/6/8)-(5/3/8/1)-(1/5/8) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CT-4   WIN (5/3/8/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/3/8/1)-(5/3/8/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/3/8/1)-(5/3/8/1)-(5/3/8/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/3/8/1)-(1/5/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/3/8/1)-(1/5/8)-(5/7/6/8) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CT-5   WIN (1/5/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/5/8)-(1/5/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/5/8)-(1/5/8)-(1/5/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/5/8)-(5/7/6/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/5/8)-(5/7/6/8)-(6/3/7/4) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CT-6   WIN (5/7/6/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/7/6/8)-(5/7/6/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/7/6/8)-(5/7/6/8)-(5/7/6/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/7/6/8)-(6/3/7/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (5/7/6/8)-(6/3/7/4)-(5/7/8) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CT-7   WIN (6/3/7/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/3/7/4)-(6/3/7/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/3/7/4)-(6/3/7/4)-(6/3/7/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/3/7/4)-(5/7/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CT-8   WIN (5/7/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/7/8)-(5/7/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/7/8)-(5/7/8)-(5/7/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CT-1   10/21/2023 2970ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($11.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BUBBA G Oct05 Aug18 Jul28 Jun15 May25 (brown ronney )ROJAS MARTINA 115 3.00    
2  SPEIGHTS YOUR MIND Oct07 May11 Apr20 Apr13 Apr01 (pickett crysta)MONTANO JOSE 120 5.00    
3  DINNER BELL Oct07 Aug05 Jun17 Feb22 Jan25 (king yolonda)ADAMS L 115 20.00 5% 19.00    
4  POLITICAL DECISION Oct13 Aug24 Aug13 Jul09 Jun17 (murtaugh andr)BATISTA C 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
5  ROYAL MAHOGANY Sep15 Aug18 Jun17 Feb18 Dec02 (farrior a)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 122 1.40 73% 0.40    
6  TRAPPE THE GOLD Oct07 Sep08 Aug18 Jul29 May10 (dollinger-st)MARRERO CARLOS 122 6.00    
7  DANCIN IN DUBAI Oct07 Sep22 Aug05 Jul28 Jul14 (brown kelto)MENDEZ MARSHALL 120 4.50    
 
CT-2   10/21/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4K) Purse ($7.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FORT FORTITUDE Sep14 Aug17 Aug05 Jun15 Jun02 (pickett crysta)MONTANO JOSE 122 10.00    
2  MOON OVER MONTANA Sep21 Sep14 Aug26 May06 Apr15 (jones micha)MENDEZ MARSHALL 122 3.00 54% 0.80    
3  EISELE Sep30 Sep14 Jul13 Jun22 May05 (hummer richar)ADAMS L 115 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  ATTENTIVE Sep29 Sep07 Aug25 Aug04 May13 (brown a)RODRIGUEZ V 122 12.00 6% 15.50    
5  ELEVATED FOREVER Sep09 Aug11 Jul22 Jun15 Jun02 (garrido raul)LARROSA G 122 15.00    
6  NO FOOLING DUDE Sep14 Aug17 Jul20 Jul07 Jun09 (brown ronney )ROJAS MARTINA 117 3.50 13% 6.50    
7  YOUSHOULDBESOLUCKY Oct13 Sep29 Jun28 May31 May01 (brown k)NUNEZ MAURICIO 122 15.00    
8  RRACE DAY WARRIOR Oct12 Sep01 Aug04 Jun24 Apr21 (farrior a)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 122 1.20    
 
CT-3   10/21/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($10.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 8:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HOLY HIP Oct05 Sep22 Aug24 Jul28 Jul15 (jones e)BOCACHICA O 124 15.00    
2  HONEYCAMP Oct06 Sep28 Sep14 Aug12 Jul12 (simone mich)MENDEZ MARSHALL 120 8.00    
3  ALL THE WAY MAE Sep30 Sep07 Jul12 May05 Feb11 (deiter kelly)TROTMAN KEIMAR 122 20.00    
4  RIDE THE RAPIDS Sep30 Sep16 Sep09 Aug25 Dec11 (brown ronney )ROJAS MARTINA 115 2.50 44% 1.30    
SCR  PETTYFORURTHOUGHTS Oct09 Sep16 Aug19 May11 Apr20 (meehan eliza)WHITACRE GRANT 122 12.00    
6  DIAL FOR LOVE Oct09 Sep11 Aug23 Jun20 Apr14 (farrior a)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 122 3.50 18% 4.70    
7  LOOKING FOR FLARE Aug05 Jul14 May27 May07 Apr08 (butts e)LARROSA G 120 4.00    
8  MARQUET CLASSIC Sep14 Aug10 Jul20 Jun22 May04 (runco c)BATISTA A 120 3.00 9% 9.90    
 
CT-4   10/21/2023 2970ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($11.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 8:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MICHEAUX Oct07 Aug31 Aug17 Jul14 Jun17 (clement roland )PELTROCHE F 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
2  GLOBAL EMPRESS May19 Apr21 Jan19 Nov26 Nov10 (couchenou)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 122 10.00    
3  SING A LULLABYE Aug05 Jul20 Oct21 Oct06 Sep23 (farrior anthony)BOCACHICA O 120 2.50 23% 3.40    
4  COWGIRL ATTITUDE Sep07 Aug11 Jul07 Jun03 May11 (adorno jean)MENDEZ MARSHALL 120 3.00    
5  KNOBIESMAGICSONDE Sep16 Sep07 Aug04 Jul22 Jul01 (brown ronney )ROJAS MARTINA 115 3.50 43% 1.30    
6  BLUE MOUNTAIN Sep16 Aug26 Aug05 Jul28 Jul06 (adorno l)MONTANO JOSE 122 8.00    
7  FIFTY GRAY SHADES Jul20 May19 Apr28 Jan20 Nov09 (groves jani)ESQUILIN J 122 10.00    
8  PATTI BLUE EYES Sep30 Sep07 Aug11 Jul28 Jun24 (farrior a)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 122 5.00 9% 9.60    
 
CT-5   10/21/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12.3K) 3UP ALL PT- 9:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CHROME HEIR Jul07 Jun23 Jun02 May05 Apr08 (pickett crysta)MONTANO JOSE 120 4.50 25% 3.00    
SCR  JONES FALLS Sep30 Sep17 Aug05 Jul21 Jun17 (joy j)ACOSTA D 120 10.00    
SCR  ADARA Sep30 Sep09 Aug03 Jul13 Jun15 (viands stacey)ROJAS MARTINA 115 15.00    
4  MUD BUG Sep30 Aug18 Jul27 Jun10 May25 (walters dav)MENDEZ MARSHALL 120 3.50    
5  MASTER THIS Sep30 Sep09 Aug18 Jul07 Jun24 (butts e)LARROSA G 122 4.00 14% 6.20    
6  PURSUING PACE Sep22 Aug26 Aug17 Jul06 Jun03 (magee )LOPEZ EDUARDO 122 5.00    
7  UNION LEAGUE Sep28 Sep08 Aug25 Jul07 Apr15 (farrior a)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 122 4.00    
8  VOLIERO Sep30 Sep09 Jun22 Jun02 May21 (hillegass ale)BATISTA C 122 30.00 14% 6.20    
9  URBAN BANDIT Sep30 Sep08 Aug17 Jul02 Jun02 (figgins l)PELTROCHE F 120 8.00    
 
CT-6   10/21/2023 2970ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($28.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 9:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JUBA BOUND Sep28 Sep15 Aug25 Aug17 Aug04 (petty kri)SANTIAGO WILFREDO 120 15.00    
2  TURTLE DOVE Sep28 Aug26 Jun30 Jun03 May11 (jones e)BOCACHICA O 120 10.00    
3  LEMONSONDESURPRISE Apr21 Mar25 Jan14 Dec07 Nov11 (mangual manolo)ACOSTA D 117 20.00    
4  DIXIE YODELER Sep07 Aug05 Jul06 May05 Apr21 (davis russell)ROJAS MARTINA 112 15.00    
5  GOLD FIBER Oct07 Aug17 Jul06 Dec17 Nov26 (mckee cynt)LATCHMAN RESHAWN 122 1.80 35% 1.90    
6  RIVER WARRIOR RVF Mar31 Jan19 Jun09 May13 Mar24 (runco jef)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 120 3.00 13% 7.00    
7  HARDLY EVER BETTER Sep28 Sep08 Aug05 Aug19 Jul18 (carlisle jo)MENDEZ MARSHALL 120 3.50 18% 4.60    
8  MAKIN' GOLD Sep28 Sep15 Aug25 Aug04 Jul21 (campbell marsha)RODRIGUEZ V 118 4.50 8% 10.90    
 
CT-7   10/21/2023 2970ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($25K) Purse ($29.4K) 3UP ALL PT-10:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BAYTOWN WARRIOR Sep30 Sep18 Sep02 Aug17 Jan12 (mcentee pa)LATCHMAN RESHAWN 120 10.00    
2  TIZ NO CLOWN Aug27 Jul29 Jul01 Jun02 Apr16 (atkins willia)BATISTA C 118 20.00    
3  STORM BOARDER (CHI) Sep21 Aug06 Jul13 Jun02 Apr30 (hurley jack)TROTMAN KEIMAR 120 5.00 16% 5.30    
4  FULLY CONNECTED Jun02 Apr06 Feb23 Feb02 Jan12 (locklea)NUNEZ MAURICIO 120 12.00 7% 12.90    
5  INSIDE RISK Sep30 Sep21 Sep04 Mar11 Feb23 (caison jody)MCKENZIE CONNIE 113 30.00    
6  PRIMAL DESTINY Sep21 Aug06 Jul13 Apr30 Apr06 (patterson kevi)ARAUJO DENIS 120 2.50 40% 1.50    
7  COMPANY CLOWN May26 Mar30 Feb11 Dec01 Nov05 (walters l)PELTROCHE F 120 3.00 16% 5.30    
8  BAYTOWN FROSTY Aug17 Jun11 Jan12 Dec05 Nov02 (mcentee pau)MENDEZ MARSHALL 120 4.50    
9  FIZBO Sep10 Aug10 Jul06 Jun15 May05 (allard t)LARROSA G 122 6.00    
 
CT-8   10/21/2023 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($12.5K) Purse ($16.6K) 3UP ALL PT-10:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  ROBBEDINTHEBAHAMAS Oct13 Sep22 Aug19 Aug05 Jul29 (shanley t)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 122 20.00    
2  NORLANDER Oct05 Sep09 Aug19 Jul26 Jun28 (runco c)ROJAS MARTINA 116 6.00    
3  ROYAL AIR FORCE Sep28 Sep07 Aug18 Jun17 May29 (farrior an)LATCHMAN RESHAWN 122 2.50    
4  IRISH KING May21 May14 Apr24 Mar19 Feb19 (lucas anthony)RODRIGUEZ V 124 20.00    
5  DOUBLE MAKER Mar05         (gillespie a)MAWING A 124 5.00 34% 2.00    
SCR  RUSH TO CANDY Oct05 Sep09 Aug11 Jul26 Jun30 (pickett crysta)MONTANO JOSE 122 20.00    
7  CAIRO BREEZE Oct05 Jun09 May19 Apr22 Mar03 (contreras javier)HO WESLEY 124 3.00 20% 4.10    
8  LORD GRANDE         (cuttino mar)MENDEZ MARSHALL 122 15.00 13% 6.90    
SCR  BARRELHOUSE Oct05 Sep09 Aug17 Aug08 Apr21 (farrior a)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 121 8.00    
10  ICETECA Oct07 Aug18 Aug05 Jul21 Jul13 (hunt ja)NUNEZ MAURICIO 121 8.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.