Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Colonial Downs
Friday - July 14, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

CNL-1   WIN (5/3/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/3/1)-(5/3/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/3/1)-(5/3/1)-(5/3/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/3/1)-(3/4/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/3/1)-(3/4/1)-(1/3/7/8) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CNL-2   WIN (3/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/4/1)-(3/4/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/4/1)-(3/4/1)-(3/4/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/4/1)-(1/3/7/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/4/1)-(1/3/7/8)-(1/11/2/9/5) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CNL-3   WIN (1/3/7/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/3/7/8)-(1/3/7/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/3/7/8)-(1/3/7/8)-(1/3/7/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/3/7/8)-(1/11/2/9/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/3/7/8)-(1/11/2/9/5)-(5/1/3/8) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CNL-4   WIN (1/11/2/9/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/11/2/9/5)-(1/11/2/9/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/11/2/9/5)-(1/11/2/9/5)-(1/11/2/9/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/11/2/9/5)-(5/1/3/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/11/2/9/5)-(5/1/3/8)-(1/3/4) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CNL-5   WIN (5/1/3/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/1/3/8)-(5/1/3/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/1/3/8)-(5/1/3/8)-(5/1/3/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/1/3/8)-(1/3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/1/3/8)-(1/3/4)-(6/8/7/3) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CNL-6   WIN (1/3/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/3/4)-(1/3/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/3/4)-(1/3/4)-(1/3/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/3/4)-(6/8/7/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/3/4)-(6/8/7/3)-(6/7/4) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CNL-7   WIN (6/8/7/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/8/7/3)-(6/8/7/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/8/7/3)-(6/8/7/3)-(6/8/7/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/8/7/3)-(6/7/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/8/7/3)-(6/7/4)-(2/7/10/9/5) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CNL-8   WIN (6/7/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/7/4)-(6/7/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/7/4)-(6/7/4)-(6/7/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/7/4)-(2/7/10/9/5) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
CNL-9   WIN (2/7/10/9/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/7/10/9/5)-(2/7/10/9/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/7/10/9/5)-(2/7/10/9/5)-(2/7/10/9/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
CNL-10   WIN (1/2/3/9/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
CNL-11   WIN (1/2/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
CNL-1   07/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FREE SOUL Jun10 Oct01 Sep06 Aug01 Jul18 (munoz carlos)JIMENEZ MANNY 118 20.00 6% 16.30    
O'CONNER SUNSET Jun16 May25 Mar19 Feb19 Jan22 (jones e)HO WESLEY 120 10.00    
MANOLITO Jun11 May25 Mar26 Mar05 Feb01 (klesaris rober)BOYCE FOREST 122 3.00 12% 7.30    
WELAKA Mar24 Jan08 Nov26 Nov04 Oct07 (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 5.00    
FREESTANDING Jul02 Jun09 May25 Jul09   (russell britt)TOLEDO JEVIAN 120 1.50 46% 1.20    
SPITBALL Jul06 Oct16 Sep25 Aug28 Jul29 (mcmahon i)ROCCO S 122 2.00    
 
CNL-2   07/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($75K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BANK CARD Jun01 May20 Apr20 Apr13 Mar04 (p)RODRIGUEZ MARIA 114 30.00 5% 19.00    
  (by JESS'S DREAM out of WHERE'S MY MONEY by PETIONVILLE)
SCR  LENAMAGNETTA Jun04         (testerman valora)RUIZ JORGE 119 6.00    
  (by NORMANDY INVASION out of THE SLIPPER FITS by SMOKE GLACKEN)
ACE UP HER SLEEVE Jun03 May04 Mar31 Mar02 Jan29 (klesaris steve)ROCCO S 124 0.60 38% 1.60    
  (by DIALED IN out of CLEARLY CHEATING by BROKEN VOW)
CLARIFICATION Jun09 May04 Apr15 Feb17   (pickett g)HO WESLEY 124 10.00 38% 1.70    
  (by IRONICUS out of SOUTH BEACH LUV by SLIGO BAY (IRE))
SERIOUS MOMENT Jan14 Dec29 Dec16 Dec01 Nov13 (hester l)GALLARDO A 124 2.00    
  (by GONE CLUBBING out of PERSUASIVE MOMENT by SINFUL PERSUASION)
MAKAAN Mar17 Feb04       (soldo elaine)SANTOS ADEMAR 124 20.00    
  (by MORNING LINE out of LOTSA NOODLES by MASS MEDIA)
 
CNL-3   07/14/2023 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($75K) 2 ALL PT- 2:38
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MASSIF         (russell britt)TOLEDO JEVIAN 119 1.80 35% 1.90    
  (by SKY MESA out of SOCIETY'S SONG by MISSION IMPAZIBLE)
YAHMO         (stidham mi)SANCHEZ J 119 4.50    
  (by CATHOLIC BOY out of LADY GRANTHAM by YANKEE GENTLEMAN)
KING KONTIE         (figgins l)PELTROCHE F 119 2.50 21% 3.70    
  (by KARAKONTIE out of JUMELLE SPRINGS by MORE THAN READY)
CONCENTRATION         (lauer michael)ROCCO S 119 10.00    
  (by TAMARKUZ out of THREE SPOKES by DAAHER)
TWO BRONZE STARS         (brion ker)CARRASCO R 119 6.00    
  (by JIMMY CREED out of MOUNTAINEER CAT by EVEN THE SCORE)
TECH DUINN Jun16 May12       (venham lyn )ESQUILIN J 119 8.00    
  (by BIG BROWN out of SEAHAG by CASHEL CASTLE)
NANCY MADE MY DAY         (cooney s)BOYCE FOREST 119 30.00 5% 19.00    
  (by COMPETITIVE EDGE out of JUMPIN' NANCY by JUMP START)
SASSE'S CLASS         (milosevic milan)RUIZ JORGE 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TONALIST out of NO SATIS ACTION by ACTION THIS DAY)
 
CNL-4   07/14/2023 5280ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WICKED FINN May24 Apr22 Apr02 Jan29 Jan07 (kelly bl)GALLARDO A 123 2.50 59% 0.70    
GRAEL Jun23 Jan20 Dec29 May28 Apr02 (stidham micha)TOLEDO JEVIAN 123 6.00 7% 12.80    
THE HAPPY GIANT May19 Sep07 Aug16 Jul27 Jul11 (fulmer allison)BOYCE FOREST 123 30.00    
SELECTO Jul01         (nunez mauricio)MENDEZ KEVIN 118 50.00    
LE GRIFFON May27 Sep07 Aug17     (escobar alison)RUIZ JORGE 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  KANAAN Jun05 Apr23 Feb06 Jan07   (bourke li)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 123 15.00    
ROYAL VELVET May29 Oct16 Jul01     (clement c)CARRASCO R 118 8.00    
TOLAGA BAY Sep07 Aug30 Aug08 Jul18   (kingsle)GONCALVES R 123 3.50    
ANAMNESTIC Mar26 Feb04 Jan06 Dec10 Nov19 (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
10  ADMIRAL'S WAVE Jun09 May18 Apr22 Feb04 Jan08 (mcgoey m)VILLALOBOS ISMERIO 123 12.00    
11  CARRONADE Jun23 May31 May05 Apr22 Mar18 (mcgoey monica)KARAMANOS A 123 4.50 7% 12.40    
 
CNL-5   07/14/2023 5610ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($28K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:39
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
THANK YA PETE Jul01 May29 May11 Sep07 Aug23 (cooney susan )TOLEDO JEVIAN 114 8.00 5% 19.00    
BOFFO KID Jun24 Nov24 Oct06 Aug19 Aug06 (doran carl)KARAMANOS A 123 4.00    
THE THINKER Jun24 May25 Apr14 Mar24 Feb04 (allen ferr)BESCHIZZA ADAM 123 10.00 5% 19.00    
MENTALIST Jun09 Nov04 Oct12 Sep25 Aug24 (bentley fennek)ROCCO S 123 2.50    
SUMMER ANTHEM Jun02 Mar25 Jan25 Dec09 Jul16 (brion ker)CARRASCO R 123 1.60 70% 0.40    
ERLAN Jun30 Jun18 May06 Apr12 Mar19 (cascallares )MENESES MARCOS 123 20.00    
BOURBON BROWN Jun20 May31 Apr28 Mar22 Mar03 (ferraro )GALLARDO A 123 6.00    
DON BERNARDO Jul01 May25 Apr29 Apr01 Nov21 (salazar marco)AVILES YAN 123 30.00 5% 19.00    
 
CNL-6   07/14/2023 5280ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($16K) Purse ($34.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TAPIT BRIO Jun03 May19 Apr08 Mar18 Feb16 (kurtinecz )SANCHEZ J 123 1.40 46% 1.20    
SCR  SMALL FIELD Apr22 Sep07 Aug29 Aug15 Aug02 (huffman kenneth )AVILES YAN 123 4.00    
CRAZY ODDS Jul01 Aug06 Jul26 Jun18   (bentley fennek)ROCCO S 123 6.00 26% 2.90    
CELTIC SEA Jun24 Jun02 May15 Nov04 Oct16 (cooney susan )TOLEDO JEVIAN 123 20.00 5% 19.00    
MINEOLA MIKE Jun24 Sep09 Aug23 Jul23 Jul08 (deiter kel)LATCHMAN RESHAWN 125 20.00    
BAIL OUT Jun24 Jun03 Nov13 Aug15 Jul15 (de ho)CARRASCO R 123 2.00    
NORTHERN TICK TOCK Jun04 May06 Nov04 Oct15 Sep23 (kee j)KARAMANOS A 125 10.00    
 
CNL-7   07/14/2023 3630ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($30K) Purse ($40K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  GIRVINIZED Jun30         (allen ferri)KARAMANOS A 120 2.50    
BABY LUCK Apr19 Mar10 Aug10 Jul27 Feb19 (ochoa gerard)RUIZ JORGE 122 4.50    
YOU'RE AVOIDING ME May20 Mar16 Feb23 Dec30 Nov11 (tomlinson)HERNANDEZ J 122 6.00 6% 15.90    
BEDTIMEBOURBON Aug29 Jul27 May20 Apr08   (morgan carla)BOYCE FOREST 118 20.00    
AIR ONE Jul05 Jun12 May22 Aug30 Aug17 (dickey keith)RIQUELME J 118 10.00    
LOVING CUP (JPN) Jul02 Jun16 Oct07 Sep05 Aug21 (mcmahon hugh )TOLEDO JEVIAN 122 3.50 36% 1.80    
MOMENTOUS MISS         (payne beale)AVILES YAN 122 8.00 12% 7.60    
TOVIA May18 Apr08 Mar31 Feb03 Jan04 (cazares laura)SANTOS ADEMAR 114 4.00 24% 3.20    
 
CNL-8   07/14/2023 3630ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($10K) Purse ($28K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  DRUM AND DRUMMER Jun03 May16 Apr19 Mar25 Mar08 (mcgoey m)VILLALOBOS ISMERIO 122 2.50    
MICHEAUX Jun17 May18 Apr01 Jan18 Dec16 (clement rolan)JIMENEZ MANNY 117 6.00    
DOC ROCK Jul01 May26 Apr29 Mar19 Feb19 (mcmahon hugh )TOLEDO JEVIAN 122 3.00    
TEMPTING MOMENT Jun15 May05 Sep05 Aug24 Aug17 (hester leanne)ROJAS MARTINA 115 30.00 5% 19.00    
AWESOME STEPHEN Jul01 May26 Apr08 Feb13 Jan21 (allen ferri)KARAMANOS A 122 20.00    
GOLDBUSTER Mar10 Oct14 Aug31 Aug08   (stidham michae)ROCCO S 118 2.00 37% 1.70    
DANCIN IN DUBAI Jun20 May05 Apr21 Apr14 Mar08 (brown kelt)LATCHMAN RESHAWN 122 4.50 27% 2.80    
 
CNL-9   07/14/2023 3630ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($25K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:37
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
KALINBA Jul01 May06 Apr30 Apr22 Apr08 (cascallar)HERRERA R 124 10.00    
STARSTREET May06 Mar19 Feb26     (stidham m)HERNANDEZ J 119 2.50 46% 1.20    
RIP IT Mar25 Jan27 Dec17 Dec09 Oct30 (haughton d)ALONSO LUIS 124 50.00    
SCR  TAKE AIM Jul07 May27 Apr28 Apr08 Mar11 (jones e)HO WESLEY 119 12.00    
HIT THE JACKPOT Jun09 May19 Apr13     (allen a)GONCALVES R 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
GREAT CALL Jun09 May19 Nov04 Sep24   (meyers ma)CARRASCO R 119 15.00    
SMILIN JACK Jun14 May29 May03     (preciado g)SANCHEZ J 119 3.00 11% 8.40    
MUNNIS PRETTY Jul03 May18 May07 Apr16 Apr06 (cooney s)AVILES YAN 114 30.00    
DISCREET DEVIL Jul06 May03 Apr15 Mar12 Feb05 (ochoa gerard)RUIZ JORGE 119 8.00 10% 8.70    
10  SWIFT DANCER Jun16 Jun01 May04 Mar23 Mar11 (williams gary)TOLEDO JEVIAN 124 3.50 10% 8.70    
11  HEAVY WEIGHT Jun10 May06 May03 Apr22 Apr08 (cascallares n)JIMENEZ MANNY 124 40.00    
12  SHAMELESS APPEAL Jun22 Jun03 Mar23 Feb18   (soldo elaine)SANTOS ADEMAR 124 50.00    
13  GET THEM DIGITS May27 Dec16 Nov07 Oct08 Sep05 (allen ferri)KARAMANOS A 124 10.00    
 
CNL-10   07/14/2023 11880ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($40K) 4UP ALL PT-12:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FINDING FREEDOM Mar25 Oct21 Sep17 Aug06   (dalton kate)DALTON BERNARD 154   8% 11.50    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of GRAND MERE by BOB AND JOHN)
ABSAM Oct15 Aug20 Jul30 Jul15 Jun18 (dowling willi)GARNER THOMAS 154   8% 11.50    
  (by HARD SPUN out of MUDREQAH by SEEKING THE GOLD)
CIBOLIAN Jun09 Oct09 Aug21 Jul30 Jun10 (kingsley a)MULQUEEN STEPHEN 154   8% 11.50    
  (by TEMPLE CITY out of YADIRA by PULPIT)
HIGH DEFF (FR) Jun10 Apr08 Aug17 Jun23 May28 (neilson kat)GALLIGAN GERARD 154      
  (by UNKNOWN out of JAKONDA by KINGMAMBO)
STRAW INTO GOLD Nov11 Oct13 Aug11 Jul15 May15 (gomens julie)GERAGHTY ROSS 154      
  (by HARD SPUN out of STRIKE IT RICH by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
GARRISON FOREST (IRE)         (young f)DUNNE ROBERT 148      
  (by WALK IN THE PARK out of MY POLLYANNA by PRESENTING (GB))
I AM FORTUNATA (IRE)         (hendriks r)BESWICK HARRISON 154      
  (by GETAWAY out of CORSKEAGH SHADOW by BENEFICIAL)
BE YOURSELF Jun20 Apr08 Mar25 Nov13 Sep03 (morris r)ENGLAND DAVID 154      
  (by KITTEN'S JOY out of ENJOY YOURSELF (GB) by UNKNOWN)
ICANDOTHAT Jun18 Jun02 Nov05 Oct21 Sep18 (mcdermott se)MCDERMOTT SEAN 148   8% 11.50    
  (by DIVINING ROD out of CALLIOPE by OUTFLANKER)
10  NATHAN DETROIT Feb24 Jan01 Dec15 Nov06 Oct23 (morris r)FOLEY BARRY 154   8% 11.50    
  (by UNION RAGS out of GRACIE SQUARE by AWESOME AGAIN)
SCR  REASSURED Aug05 May30 May07 Apr10 Feb21 (beecher mark)WATTERS GRAHAM 154      
  (by BANDBOX out of BRIDLED ASSURANCE by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
SCR  GOOD BOY (FR) Aug29         (mckenna to)BESWICK HARRISON 154      
  (by DIAMOND BOY out of MARALYPHA by LOUVETEAU)
 
CNL-11   07/14/2023 11880ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($40K) 4UP M/F PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FOX IN THE PARK (IRE) Apr08         (young f)DUNNE ROBERT 153   13% 6.60    
  (by UNKNOWN out of FOX THEATRE by KING'S THEATRE (IRE))
LACEY UNDERALL Jun23 Apr08 Nov25 Oct08   (brion keri)BOUCHER MELL 140   13% 6.60    
  (by CREATIVE CAUSE out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
SCR  LADY'S GAME (GB)         (brion keri)HENDRIKS PARKER 147   13% 6.60    
  (by BLUE BRESIL out of GRAINNE NI MAILLE by TERIMON)
BOURBON DIVERSION Jun23 Nov12 Oct08 Aug31 Jan13 (kingsley a)MULQUEEN STEPHEN 147      
  (by BELLAMY ROAD out of BOURBON TWIST by LANGFUHR)
FUSEE DE POCHE (IRE) Oct29 Oct02 Jul11     (dowling will)DALTON BERNARD 153      
  (by CHAMPS ELYSEES (GB) out of ISITYOURSELF by MILAN (GB))
AFRAID NOT Apr08 Oct07 Sep07 Aug08 Jul19 (gomens juli)GALLIGAN GERARD 147      
  (by TOURIST out of TREPIDATION by SEEKING THE GOLD)
GOLD CHARM (IRE)         (murphy cyril)FOLEY BARRY 147   13% 6.60    
  (by GOLDEN HORN out of DEVERON by COZZENE)
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.