Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Ellis Park
Monday - August 18, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

ELP-1   WIN (5/2/6/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/2/6/4)-(5/2/6/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/2/6/4)-(5/2/6/4)-(5/2/6/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/2/6/4)-(8/1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/2/6/4)-(8/1/5)-(4/1/5) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
ELP-2   WIN (8/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/1/5)-(8/1/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (8/1/5)-(8/1/5)-(8/1/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (8/1/5)-(4/1/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (8/1/5)-(4/1/5)-(6/4/8/7) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
ELP-3   WIN (4/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/5)-(4/1/5/3/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/1/5)-(4/1/5/3/2)-(4/1/5/3/2) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (4/1/5)-(6/4/8/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/1/5)-(6/4/8/7)-(5/3/2) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
ELP-4   WIN (6/4/8/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/4/8/7)-(6/4/8/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/4/8/7)-(6/4/8/7)-(6/4/8/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/4/8/7)-(5/3/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/4/8/7)-(5/3/2)-(4/5/3/9) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
ELP-5   WIN (5/3/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/3/2)-(5/3/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/3/2)-(5/3/2)-(5/3/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/3/2)-(4/5/3/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/3/2)-(4/5/3/9)-(6/2/7/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
ELP-6   WIN (4/5/3/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/5/3/9)-(4/5/3/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/5/3/9)-(4/5/3/9)-(4/5/3/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/5/3/9)-(6/2/7/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (4/5/3/9)-(6/2/7/3)-(2/4/5/8) 64 $0.50 $192 
ELP-7   WIN (6/2/7/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/2/7/3)-(6/2/7/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/2/7/3)-(6/2/7/3)-(6/2/7/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/2/7/3)-(2/4/5/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (6/2/7/3)-(2/4/5/8)-(7/4/8/3) 64 $0.50 $32.00 
ELP-8   WIN (2/4/5/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/4/5/8)-(2/4/5/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/4/5/8)-(2/4/5/8)-(2/4/5/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/4/5/8)-(7/4/8/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
ELP-9   WIN (7/4/8/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/4/8/3)-(7/4/8/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/4/8/3)-(7/4/8/3)-(7/4/8/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
ELP-1   08/18/2025 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3UP M/F PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCOOCH OVER         (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 118 10.00    
  (by ENTICED out of SIMMADOWNNOW by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
KELLY'S WAY BACK Jun28         (stall m)GRAHAM J 118 4.50 29% 2.50    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of KELLY'S HUMOR by MIDNIGHT LUTE)
DASHIN' DIVA Jul14 Jun08 May02     (briley lonnie)WALES T 118 5.00    
  (by CARACARO out of GIANTS DIVA by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
BRAVE SAMANTHA Jul14 Jun12 May19 Apr11 Mar22 (medina ro)TORRES A 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of LITTLE HIDDEN GEM by BODEMEISTER)
SENSING FLATTER Oct01 Sep03       (kenneally )GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 1.60 41% 1.40    
  (by FLATTER out of AVIE'S SENSE by STREET SENSE)
BEING MYSELF Sep20         (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.50 10% 9.50    
  (by CURLIN out of FACT FILE by DIXIE UNION)
TYPHOON TAFFY Jul14         (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 6.00    
  (by AM ALL CHARGED UP out of TRAFFIC DRONE by JUDGE POWER)
 
ELP-2   08/18/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($35K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
AIR CAV Jul26 Jun26 Dec27 Sep18 Aug05 (tomlinson mi)TORRES A 122 10.00 13% 6.70    
PIERCE ELEVATED Aug04 Jun26 May22 May08 Mar07 (salas ma)RODRIGUEZ A 118 8.00    
SCR  FOR YOUR PLEASURE Aug06 Jun23 Nov24 Oct21   (cox brad )TORRES A 124 4.00    
SCR  SHOW MASTER Jun12 May15 Aug01 Jun30   (arnold george)MORALES EDGAR 122 6.00    
SHORTSTOP Aug01 Jul04 Jun13 May01 Apr06 (cook k)ELLIOTT JANE 122 6.00 5% 19.00    
GREATDAYFORHOCKEY Aug04 Jul13 Jun22 May09 Nov24 (salas marcelino)BEJARANO R 118 15.00    
SCR  JUSTIFREAK Jul13 Jun08 Apr16 Oct30 Sep21 (kenneally eddie)JUAREZ NIK 122 4.50    
ZOHERE Jul03 Jun15 Apr30     (kenneally )GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 61% 0.60    
MIDNIGHT BOSS Jul12 Jun19 May08 Apr11 Mar12 (antonucci je)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 10.00    
 
ELP-3   08/18/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($31.25K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
VILLAINY         (moquett rona)TORRES A 119 12.00 17% 5.00    
GLOBAL QUEEN Nov27 Sep26       (moger jr)BEJARANO R 119 3.50    
MIDNIGHT MUSE Jul04 May11 Apr09 Mar12 Feb13 (foster eric)BARBOSA CARLOS 119 4.00    
ACT OF FAITH         (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 49% 1.10    
DINAHS GIRL Aug09 Jul19 Mar09 Jan31 Jan03 (hartman chris)ELLIOTT JANE 119 8.00 12% 7.40    
ROMANAYA Jul08 Jun04 Apr24 Mar22 Nov30 (gutierrez f)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 8.00    
CRACKLE (GB) Jun25 Jun07 May26 May11   (hols)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 119 10.00    
JUSTTAKETHECANNOLI May11 Feb15 Oct27     (mcgee paul)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 8.00    
MISS MAKENNA Jul19 Jun25 May19 Apr27 Mar30 (house gary)GUTIERREZ MARIO 119 10.00    
 
ELP-4   08/18/2025 5610ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($40K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MY SEXY BLONDE Jul12 May18 Feb05 Sep07 Aug18 (taylor brent)BEJARANO R 124 6.00    
SCR  ADULARE Jul14 Jun25       (grubbs jamie )JIMENEZ ALBIN 118 8.00    
TWISTED VIPER Jun14 May02 Mar22     (ortiz john )CONCEPCION AXEL 118 12.00    
WEST COAST DREAM         (mccarthy mic)TORRES A 118 5.00 26% 2.90    
VOLATILE JINNY Jul26 Jun25 May31     (wismer gl)CAMACHO JR 118 12.00    
DAWN AFTER DAWN Jul14 Jun14 Nov30 Oct10 Sep15 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 118 1.60 42% 1.40    
ZELIHA Jun07 Mar28 Feb21 Jan31 Jan19 (sherman j)SHERMAN ALEXANDRA 117 8.00 5% 19.00    
DANCING DRUMS Jul20 Jun29       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00 11% 7.80    
MILVEN Jul19 Sep21 Sep01     (french r)MEEKS MICAH 114 30.00    
 
ELP-5   08/18/2025 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($102K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  LAMBO Aug03 Jun28 Jun12 May03 Mar28 (hartman ch)HERNANDEZ J 122 4.50    
MIRACLE WORKER Jul14 May29 Mar21 Feb16 Jan23 (moquett rona)TORRES A 122 6.00 9% 9.80    
MITTY'S GRIDDY Sep12         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 6.00 30% 2.30    
LINEBACKER Mar07 Jan04 Nov28 Oct30 Sep14 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 122 12.00    
AMOR PATRIAE Jun21 May25 May02 Mar14 Dec29 (divito jam)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.00 32% 2.10    
AJAAYB Jul14 Jun25 Jun08 May17 Feb01 (esquivel gu)GUTIERREZ MARIO 122 5.00    
MATH TUTOR Jun07 May08 Feb22 Jan18 Nov29 (antonucci je)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 4.00    
 
ELP-6   08/18/2025 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 2 F PT- 3:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
RUMBAR         (colebrook )GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.50    
  (by DIVISIDERO out of PROUD AND FEARLESS by PROUD CITIZEN)
CAUSEWAYS JOY         (romans da)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 6.00    
  (by KITTEN'S JOY out of CAUSEWAYSFLY by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
ROSE TO RICHES         (brown cha)TORRES A 119 3.50 17% 5.00    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of HOTSHOT ANNA by TRAPPE SHOT)
RAIN GOLD         (devaux cherie)LANERIE J 119 3.00 23% 3.30    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of HIT IT RICH by SMART STRIKE)
STUNNING SAPPHIRE Jul04         (goodwin g)JUAREZ NIK 119 6.00 21% 3.80    
  (by WIN WIN WIN out of KITETA by SMART STRIKE)
BISTINEAU BEAUTY Jul26         (reed eri)RODRIGUEZ A 119 30.00    
  (by EL DEAL out of CAZADORA by KARAKONTIE (JPN))
SCR  SOUNDSMISCHIEVOUS May31 May08       (hancock jo)ANDERSON MCKENNA 119 30.00    
  (by AUDIBLE out of RI N GINGER by LOOKIN AT LUCKY)
MAVERICK QUEEN         (harty eoin)BEJARANO R 119 5.00    
  (by DIALED IN out of TAPPINGINTHESTREET by STREET SENSE)
STRADA DEL SOGNO May10         (londono genevieve)GRAHAM J 119 10.00 15% 5.50    
  (by STREET BOSS out of LINE UP by VIOLENCE)
 
ELP-7   08/18/2025 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($40K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TIVERTON (GB) Aug13 Aug01 Jul28 Jul12 Jun17 (cunningham j)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 8.00    
RING SEEKER Jun08 Mar22 Feb15 Jan25 Jan04 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 118 6.00 32% 2.20    
BURLSWORTH Jul09 May03 Mar30 Mar01 Jan04 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
COMPLEX MUSIC Jun27 May18 Apr23 Jan26 Jan11 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 5.00    
VERTRAUEN Jul26 Jul12 Jun20 Apr30 Mar23 (foster eric)BARBOSA CARLOS 124 4.50    
EGLISE Jul12 May26 Apr26 Mar29 Feb23 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.80 38% 1.60    
EXPLOSIVELY Jul14 Jun15 May26 Apr30 Mar27 (moger jr)GUTIERREZ MARIO 122 3.50 6% 15.30    
 
ELP-8   08/18/2025 6600ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($104K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FIDGET Jul05 Mar02 Jan01 Nov09 Sep08 (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 6.00    
CLYDE'S GOT A GUN Aug03 Jun08 May10 Nov29 Oct05 (pitts helen)MORALES EDGAR 122 1.80 28% 2.50    
KING CURLIN Jul26 Jun25 May19 Apr17 Mar29 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 122 10.00    
AK SAR BEN DERBY Jul26 Jun21 May25 Nov23 Oct06 (ortiz john )CONCEPCION AXEL 122 5.00 19% 4.40    
THE MINKSTER Jul29 Sep30 Aug19 Jul22 Nov13 (caramori cai)TORRES A 122 15.00 14% 5.90    
INNATELY GOOD Jul26 Jun28 Jun15 May24 Apr27 (goodwin g)JUAREZ NIK 120 20.00    
MASTEROFFOXHOUNDS Aug08 Nov30 Nov09 Oct10 Jul06 (jacobson )CAMACHO JR 122 3.00    
QUADRA ISLAND Aug08 May19 May11 Mar27 Feb26 (fawkes david)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 8.00 5% 18.80    
 
ELP-9   08/18/2025 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 2 F PT- 4:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  RIOTOUS         (catalano wayne )LANERIE J 119 10.00    
  (by CHARLATAN out of UNBRIDLED EMPIRE by EMPIRE MAKER)
RATHER LATE Jul05 Jun11 May15     (hancock )RODRIGUEZ A 119 30.00    
  (by VOLATILE out of RATHER BEAUTIFUL by MALIBU MOON)
JUSTA REBEL         (medina robert)BEJARANO R 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of MUMTAAZAH by TAPIT)
SNEAKILY         (cox h)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.00 23% 3.30    
  (by TAPIT out of SNEAKING OUT by INDIAN EVENING)
SCR  ESSENTIALLY GOLD Jul05 Apr11       (mcentee paul)BOCACHICA O 119 30.00    
  (by ESSENTIAL QUALITY out of WEB O' GOLD by HARD SPUN)
HOT AND DANGEROUS Jul14         (lynch brian)GUTIERREZ MARIO 119 5.00    
  (by BLAME out of WINDFALL PROFIT by MALIBU MOON)
TRUST ACCOUNT         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 2.50 27% 2.70    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of SHARED ACCOUNT by PLEASANTLY PERFECT)
VANITY Jul26         (casse mark)GEROUX FLORENT 119 6.00 20% 3.90    
  (by VEKOMA out of TAP TAP TAPPING by TAPIT)
QUEEN OF CAPRI         (mott riley)TORRES A 119 10.00    
  (by MCKINZIE out of AMALFI QUEEN by TAPIT)
SCR  LILLESAND         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 10.00    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of WINIKINS by COZZENE)
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.