Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Saturday - August 09, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (4/8/3/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/8/3/2)-(4/8/3/11/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (4/8/3/2)-(4/8/3/11/2)-(4/8/3/11/2) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (4/8/3/2)-(1/3/7/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (4/8/3/2)-(1/3/7/6)-(1/2/4/8/9) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
ELP-2   WIN (1/3/7/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/3/7/6)-(1/3/7/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/3/7/6)-(1/3/7/6)-(1/3/7/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/3/7/6)-(1/2/4/8/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/3/7/6)-(1/2/4/8/9)-(4/10/2/8/3) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
ELP-3   WIN (1/2/4/8/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/2/4/8/9)-(1/2/4/8/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/2/4/8/9)-(1/2/4/8/9)-(1/2/4/8/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/2/4/8/9)-(4/10/2/8/3) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (1/2/4/8/9)-(4/10/2/8/3)-(2/1/5/6) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
ELP-4   WIN (4/10/2/8/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/10/2/8/3)-(4/10/2/8/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/10/2/8/3)-(4/10/2/8/3)-(4/10/2/8/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (4/10/2/8/3)-(2/1/5/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (4/10/2/8/3)-(2/1/5/6)-(6/4) 40 $0.50 $20.00 
ELP-5   WIN (2/1/5/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/1/5/6)-(2/1/5/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/1/5/6)-(2/1/5/6)-(2/1/5/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/1/5/6)-(6/4) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (2/1/5/6)-(6/4)-(4/5/2/6) 32 $0.50 $96.00 
ELP-6   WIN (6/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/4)-(6/4) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (6/4)-(4/5/2/6) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (6/4)-(4/5/2/6)-(6/5/3/7) 32 $0.50 $16.00 
ELP-7   WIN (4/5/2/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/5/2/6)-(4/5/2/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/5/2/6)-(4/5/2/6)-(4/5/2/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/5/2/6)-(6/5/3/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (4/5/2/6)-(6/5/3/7)-(9/4/2/11/10) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
ELP-8   WIN (6/5/3/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/5/3/7)-(6/5/3/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/5/3/7)-(6/5/3/7)-(6/5/3/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/5/3/7)-(9/4/2/11/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
ELP-9   WIN (9/4/2/11/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/4/2/11/10)-(9/4/2/11/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (9/4/2/11/10)-(9/4/2/11/10)-(9/4/2/11/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   08/09/2025 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($23.75K) 3UP ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CLOCKING Jul03         (diodoro robert)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 15.00    
2  STRATEGIST Jul13 Jun27 Jun14 May15 Apr26 (romero gregor)MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  BEECHMONT Jul03 Jun01 Apr13 Mar08   (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
4  PROMISSIONE Jun27 May26 Apr29 Apr06 Mar12 (diodoro r)TORRES A 118 4.00 36% 1.80    
SCR  GOOD NEWS ROCKET Jul13 Jun15 Apr13 Apr04 Mar07 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 124 10.00    
SCR  BELIEVE IN DREAMS Jul12 Jun16 May26 May01 Sep12 (vanden br)ROCCO S 118 30.00    
7  MR. CHUCK Apr06 Feb22       (romans dale)LANERIE J 118 10.00    
8  KEVIN'S STRIKE Jun14 May15 Feb20 Jan17 Dec15 (amoss m)GRAHAM J 118 2.50 35% 1.90    
9  GROUND SHAKER Jul26 Jun19 May26 May05 Apr16 (mcvickers la)BARBOSA CARLOS 118 20.00    
10  OLD TRACE Jun25 May16 Apr30 Mar27   (warpool shane)ELLIOTT JANE 118 30.00    
11  FALCON QUEST Jul11 Jun28 Jun07 May18 Jun05 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 124 6.00 ★    
SCR  HISTORIC Jul20 Jun22 Jul29     (moquett rona)TORRES A 118 10.00    
 
ELP-2   08/09/2025 3960ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($40K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  HAP HOT Jun28 May26 May01 Apr13 Mar28 (ramirez-rodrig)MACHADO LUAN 122 3.50 32% 2.10    
2  PROMISES TO DANCE Jul05 May03 Apr19 Jan17 Sep12 (jacobson )CAMACHO JR 117 8.00    
3  TURN UP THE TREES Jul14 Jun18 May16 May06 Dec27 (jacobson dav)TORRES A 124 2.00 25% 3.00    
4  REGAL REY Jul14 Jun19 Jun06 May01 Apr12 (antonuik)RODRIGUEZ A 124 4.50    
5  ROCKET HOSS Jan30 Jan04 Oct31 Oct08 Sep17 (davis j)DE CRUZ 122 15.00    
6  AMERICAN OUTLAW Jun27 Jun01 May10 Apr26 Mar07 (ramirez-rodrig)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
7  PAYNE Jul14 Jun06 May11 Apr12 Apr04 (foster er)TORRES A 122 3.00 18% 4.60    
 
ELP-3   08/09/2025 5280ft TURF RC2 FIRM Mdn Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($44K) 2 ALL PT- 1:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TINGUS PINGUS         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.00 41% 1.40    
2  GRIND         (walden william)MACHADO LUAN 119 5.00 12% 7.10    
3  AMERICAN BEAR Jul30 Jun28 Jun12     (bahena ismael)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 10.00    
4  MO BEACH TIME Jul21 Jul05       (goodwin n)WILLIAMS JO 119 10.00 6% 15.90    
5  VITRUVIAN MAN         (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 119 10.00    
SCR  PUPIL Aug06 Jun01 Apr10     (wojczynski j)BARBOSA CARLOS 119 12.00    
7  COLLECTING Jul21 May23       (mccarthy mic)TORRES A 119 3.00    
8  GRAY IS OKAY         (hartman chris)CANNON DECLAN 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
9  JORGE'S ACE         (newton t)RODRIGUEZ A 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
10  CONSEQUENTIAL         (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 119 6.00    
SCR  RAMBLIN Jul09         (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 12.00    
SCR  SENOR VALENTINE Jul30 May24       (hern)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 119 12.00    
SCR  WADO         (hancock jo)ANDERSON MCKENNA 119 20.00    
 
ELP-4   08/09/2025 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($31.25K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DYNAMITE         (mackey wa)BEALMEAR C 119 20.00    
2  MISS QUE SERA Nov06         (fawkes david)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 5.00 5% 19.00    
3  HARD TO GET May30         (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
4  TROUBLER May30 Jun14       (casse w)TORRES A 119 4.00 54% 0.90    
SCR  RUSH TO GLORY Jul04 Jun04 May11 Mar30 Jan19 (hartman chris)ELLIOTT JANE 124 12.00    
6  TAKE OVER         (medina rober)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 20.00    
7  AHAMO Jul14 Apr18 Feb23 Jan10 Nov21 (calhoun willia)MACHADO LUAN 119 8.00    
8  BIG EARN Jun17 May19 Apr16 Mar13 Feb02 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  CRACKLE (GB) Jun25 Jun07 May26 May11   (hols)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 119 15.00    
10  DINAHS GIRL Jul19 Mar09 Jan31 Jan03 Dec13 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 119 6.00 13% 6.50    
11  DARING HOPE Jul19 May30 Mar16 Feb21 Jan27 (bahena ismae)BARBOSA CARLOS 124 6.00    
12  BRIDGIE BOP Jun25         (romans da)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 10.00    
 
ELP-5   08/09/2025 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 2 F PT- 2:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BLUES MUSIC         (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 119 8.00 6% 16.50    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of BLUE UNION RAGS by UNION RAGS)
2  HUMOR ME BABY Jul12         (walsh brendan)MORALES EDGAR 119 4.00 41% 1.40    
  (by MUNNINGS out of HUMOR ME COLONEL by COLONEL JOHN)
SCR  MISO SPEEDY         (mott riley)TORRES A 119 4.50    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of SUSHI EMPIRE by EMPIRE MAKER)
SCR  PARTY CENTRAL         (maker michael )MACHADO LUAN 119 3.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of FASHION ROYALTY by WAR FRONT)
5  GLAZIN' FURY         (shirer ma)TORRES A 119 8.00 6% 16.50    
  (by MITOLE out of VIEW FROM THE TOP by DISTANT VIEW)
6  DIAMONDINTHEROUGH         (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 119 8.00 6% 16.50    
  (by TRICK QUESTION out of ZAROLIA by MAJESTIC LIGHT)
7  ISLIE JANE         (walsh brendan )SHEEHY DANNY 119 8.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of MISS EXCLUSIVE by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
8  UNLIKELY QUEEN         (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 8.00    
  (by IMPROBABLE out of ELUSIVE WAVE by MIZZEN MAST)
SCR  LA PRESUMIDA         (seglin lu)BEALMEAR C 119 30.00    
  (by MAXIMUM SECURITY out of DUEL FOOL by U S RANGER)
10  FAITH SO STRONG         (hancock dana)JUAREZ NIK 119 30.00    
  (by CODE OF HONOR out of INITIATION by DEPUTY MINISTER)
11  LOST CHORD         (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 119 8.00    
  (by MAXFIELD out of FANCY AND FLASHY by ZENSATIONAL)
SCR  RIVER WAVENEY         (ennis john)DOYLE SOPHIE 119 12.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of STREET OF GOLD by BAY STREET STAR)
SCR  VANISH         (casse mark)GEROUX FLORENT 119 8.00    
  (by ALGORITHMS out of ELUSIVE HOPE by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
SCR  AUTHENTIC CHARM         (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 119 8.00    
  (by AUTHENTIC out of SCOOTER BIRD by WAR PASS)
 
ELP-6   08/09/2025 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($106K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SECOND I D Jul04 Jun14 Jul22 Jun09   (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 121 2.00    
SCR  BEAR RIVER Aug03 Jul04 Jan18 Dec21 Nov03 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 121 8.00    
3  RYVIT Jul20 May26 May02 Apr12 Mar21 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 4.50    
4  RED STATE Jun13 Apr26 Mar07 Jan26 May26 (maker michael )MACHADO LUAN 121 4.00 27% 2.80    
5  CHASING TIME Jun28 May18 Apr19 Mar16 Feb14 (santamaria c)GEROUX FLORENT 121 15.00    
6  HERE MI SONG Jul20 May31 May03 Apr08 Oct04 (stinson willi)MORALES EDGAR 121 1.80 43% 1.30    
 
ELP-7   08/09/2025 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NASH POTATOES May15 Apr12 Dec14     (newton t)RODRIGUEZ A 119 20.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of HUNDRED YEAR STORM by WAR FRONT)
2  KY DO DECLARE Sep18 Aug31       (hartman chris)ELLIOTT JANE 119 6.00 6% 14.80    
  (by ACCELERATE out of I DO DECLARE by DECLARATION OF WAR)
3  OPERATION SUNRISE Apr25         (mott william)TORRES A 119 4.50    
  (by WAR FRONT out of SHURUQ by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
4  GOOD MOJO Jul06 Jun12       (forster grant)MORALES EDGAR 119 1.60 64% 0.60    
  (by MO TOWN out of CASTINETTE DANCER by MINISTERS WILD CAT)
5  POST GAME Jun13 May15 Apr16 Nov23 Aug17 (eurton pete)GUTIERREZ MARIO 119 6.00 7% 12.40    
  (by NYQUIST out of HEAVENLY VIEW by DISTANT VIEW)
6  MR ENTERTAINER         (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GOLD LEGEND out of LINES OF EXCHANGE by LINES OF POWER)
7  DISCERNING SPIRIT Apr12         (dixon jer)BEALMEAR C 119 30.00    
  (by YORKTON out of MAGNA MOONGLOW by MAGNA GRADUATE)
8  EMPIRE RANCH         (morse l)BEJARANO R 119 10.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of SENADA by PULPIT)
SCR  ECHO DOWN         (hartman chris)MACHADO LUAN 119 6.00    
  (by ECHO TOWN out of FLY DOWN TOO by MINESHAFT)
 
ELP-8   08/09/2025 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($102K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BERMUDA BLITZ Jul14 Jun11 May08 Mar14 Feb24 (hernande)RODRIGUEZ A 120 4.50    
2  RUN QUIET RUN FAST Jul04 Jun06 May05 Mar19 Jan18 (rodriguez ge)MONCADA IRVING 118 15.00    
3  PAPA YO Jun22 May18 Feb01 Dec29 Oct18 (combs ben)TORRES A 123 8.00 8% 11.40    
4  LAUGHNOWCRYLATER Jun21 Nov28 Oct07 Sep05 Aug03 (mccarthy mic)TORRES A 123 4.00    
5  SIPPIN ON GIN Jun07 Mar22 Mar01 Jan19 Dec14 (calhoun willia)MACHADO LUAN 118 6.00 29% 2.50    
6  DUKE OF DUVAL Jul13 May24 Oct17 Sep15 Aug24 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 125 2.50 35% 1.80    
7  TIGER MOON Jun25 Jun06 May18 Feb06 Jan11 (atras rob)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 8.00 5% 19.00    
8  SOLID LEFT Jul14 Jun05 May09 Apr12 Feb27 (santamaria carlo)JUAREZ NIK 120 5.00    
 
ELP-9   08/09/2025 3630ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($102K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RIGHTINTHATWRONG Dec20 Oct28 Oct09     (corrigan jim)CANNON DECLAN 118 30.00    
2  ROSATO Nov30 Nov06 Oct27 Sep13 Jun16 (wilkes ia)TORRES A 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
3  CAVATELLI Jun13 May17 Apr17 Sep04   (foster eric)LANERIE J 118 15.00    
4  SHE'Z THE LAW Jul14 Jun08 May18 Oct05 Aug24 (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 124 6.00 19% 4.30    
SCR  MIYAKO Feb23 Jan23 Nov28 Oct07 Sep01 (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 122 10.00    
6  PARTY PAULINE May30 May15       (hartman chri)MONCADA IRVING 122 15.00    
SCR  ROJO RITA Jun11 May15 Mar16 Feb01 Nov15 (joseph saffi)TORRES A 118 1.00    
8  ROYALEWITHCHEESE Jul12 Jun19 May26 Sep15   (hiles jef)LEPAROUX R 118 30.00    
9  SWEET KAUFY Jun08 Dec05       (ward a)MACHADO LUAN 118 4.00 53% 0.90    
10  TEMPERS FLY Dec13 Oct25 Sep27 Aug25   (mccarthy)RODRIGUEZ A 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
11  ANTIQUE SILVER Jul05 Jun15 May17 Feb01 Jan03 (jacobson )CAMACHO JR 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.