Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Charles Town
Friday - August 11, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CT-1   WIN (1/6/7/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/6/7/3)-(1/6/7/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/6/7/3)-(1/6/7/3)-(1/6/7/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/6/7/3)-(6/5/4/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/6/7/3)-(6/5/4/7)-(7/6/2/4) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CT-2   WIN (6/5/4/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/5/4/7)-(6/5/4/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/5/4/7)-(6/5/4/7)-(6/5/4/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/5/4/7)-(7/6/2/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (6/5/4/7)-(7/6/2/4)-(2/5/11/8/9) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CT-3   WIN (7/6/2/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/6/2/4)-(7/6/2/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/6/2/4)-(7/6/2/4)-(7/6/2/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/6/2/4)-(2/5/11/8/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (7/6/2/4)-(2/5/11/8/9)-(8/5/2/3) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CT-4   WIN (2/5/11/8/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/5/11/8/9)-(2/5/11/8/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/5/11/8/9)-(2/5/11/8/9)-(2/5/11/8/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/5/11/8/9)-(8/5/2/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (2/5/11/8/9)-(8/5/2/3)-(7/9/8/1/2) 100 $1.00 $100 
CT-5   WIN (8/5/2/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/5/2/3)-(8/5/2/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/5/2/3)-(8/5/2/3)-(8/5/2/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/5/2/3)-(7/9/8/1/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (8/5/2/3)-(7/9/8/1/2)-(3/10/8/6/2) 100 $1.00 $100 
CT-6   WIN (7/9/8/1/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/9/8/1/2)-(7/9/8/1/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/9/8/1/2)-(7/9/8/1/2)-(7/9/8/1/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (7/9/8/1/2)-(3/10/8/6/2) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (7/9/8/1/2)-(3/10/8/6/2)-(2/5/3/4/6) 125 $1.00 $125 
CT-7   WIN (3/10/8/6/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/10/8/6/2)-(3/10/8/6/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/10/8/6/2)-(3/10/8/6/2)-(3/10/8/6/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (3/10/8/6/2)-(2/5/3/4/6) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
CT-8   WIN (2/5/3/4/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/5/3/4/6)-(2/5/3/4/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/5/3/4/6)-(2/5/3/4/6)-(2/5/3/4/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CT-1   08/11/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($26.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SOMEBODY LOVES ME Jul22 Jul13 Jun22 May26 Apr28 (arias alfonso)PELTROCHE F 124 1.20 37% 1.70    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of SUCCESSFUL LUCK by SUCCESSFUL APPEAL)
2  DASHING LASS Jul30 Jul07       (shanley tim)MENDEZ MARSHALL 120 8.00    
  (by GOLDEN LAD out of DIBBLE DASH by JUMP START)
3  ALL THE ENVY Mar17 Feb23 Feb09 Jan18 Nov16 (shanley mark)RODRIGUEZ V 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by SHAMAN GHOST out of LALKA by DYNAFORMER)
4  EMBRACEABLE Jun30 May29 May02     (viands stacey )ARAUJO DENIS 120 4.50    
  (by COLLECTED out of HONKY TONK TRICK by PHONE TRICK)
5  IMAGINE RITA Aug03 Jul05 Jun10 Mar07 Feb20 (boyce l)ADAMS L 113 15.00    
  (by IMAGINING out of LOVELY SENORITA by NOT FOR LOVE)
6  SMOOCHINWITHCINDY         (robb j)PEREZ XAVIER 120 4.00 30% 2.30    
  (by ACCELERATE out of TRUE KISS by IS IT TRUE)
7  LINDA'S TAJ Jun22 Jun09 May18 Apr27 Apr06 (dollinger-sth)RIVERA JAVIER 124 5.00 11% 8.10    
  (by UNCLE LINO out of R B'S LINDA by ALLEN'S PROSPECT)
 
CT-2   08/11/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($14.2K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  ELVIRUS Jul26 Jun15 May20 Apr27 Apr07 (gazzier kri)MENDEZ MARSHALL 122 4.50    
2  ROCKY DICE Aug03 Jul13 Jul07 May26 May04 (murdock stephen)ACOSTA D 122 6.00    
3  LOKOYA ROAD Jul27 Jun23 Jun09 May20 May05 (jones michae)TROTMAN KEIMAR 122 4.00    
4  LADDIE LIAM Jun24 Jun02 May12 Apr22 Mar31 (racanelli mar)SIMPSON JASON 122 12.00 14% 6.40    
5  HAPPY CHAMP Jul14 Jun24 Jun15 Jun02 May13 (brown ronne)CONCEPCION AXEL 115 5.00 28% 2.50    
6  ROYAL CRUSADER Jul21 Jun24 Jun13 May07 Apr07 (farrior a)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 120 4.50 32% 2.20    
7  FIVE STAR PHIL Jul21 Jul01 Jun18 Apr02 Feb24 (mancilla )HERNANDEZ F 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
8  JASONTAKESLONG Jul10 Jun18 May29 Apr02 Feb20 (mancilla carlos )CRUZ ANGEL 122 3.00    
 
CT-3   08/11/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($15K) Purse ($17.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  DISTANT FIRE Jul30 Jul07 Jun09 Apr30 Apr01 (magee kieron)CRUZ ANGEL 116 10.00    
2  THEWITCHISGONE Jul21 May27 Apr13 Mar10 Feb08 (carlisle jo)MENDEZ MARSHALL 124 4.00 17% 4.80    
3  REMYS SHOWTIME Jul27 Jul19 Jun15 May27 May19 (jones michae)TROTMAN KEIMAR 124 1.80    
4  TIMMY Jul25 Jun27 Apr22 Apr01 Feb25 (gazzier k)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  MISS YOU AJAX Jul27 Jul13 Jun22 May26 May04 (knoblauch-perez)BOCACHICA O 118 20.00    
6  LEG UP Jul21 Jul07 Jun03 May11 Apr13 (hanagan le)LATCHMAN RESHAWN 122 3.50 18% 4.60    
7  RUN TO DAYLIGHT Jul12 Jun23 May22 Apr01 Jan27 (runco jef)BOCACHICA J 114 6.00 41% 1.40    
8  ICE COLD FROSTY Jul22 Jun11 May19 Feb12 Dec31 (mancilla ca)CONCEPCION AXEL 113 8.00    
 
CT-4   08/11/2023 2970ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($26.5K) 2 ALL PT- 8:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GRANDY         (contreras javier)HO WESLEY 120 8.00    
  (by TALE OF THE CAT out of CLEFT IN THE ROCK by ARCH)
2  SOUL CATCHER Jul21         (runco jef)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 120 2.50 31% 2.30    
  (by MO TOWN out of TUXEDO LADY by ARCHARCHARCH)
3  DIRECT PROOF Jul21 Jun30       (mckee e)CECIL Y 120 30.00    
  (by REDIRECT out of TWO HUNDRED PROOF by MALIBU MOON)
SCR  YACHTSMEN         (runco jeff )MENDEZ MARSHALL 120 5.00    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of HELLUVA HUNCH by TAPIT)
5  CHRISTOPHER'SHEART Jun30         (farrior ant)CONCEPCION AXEL 115 3.50 25% 2.90    
  (by RACE DAY out of BLUSHING DAMSEL by ORIENTATE (GB))
6  WYSOQUIET Jun30 Jun16 May26     (robb j)PEREZ XAVIER 120 4.50    
  (by WARRIOR'S REWARD out of G G'S DOLLY by COMIC STRIP)
7  CANDY FOR JUBA Jul21 Jun30       (sigler ronald)LOPEZ ANTONIO 120 20.00    
  (by JUBA out of CANDY MAN'S GIRL by CHARITABLE MAN)
8  ALEXANDER GRADY         (contrer)NUNEZ MAURICIO 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ASTERN out of ACROSS by CITY ZIP)
9  TAKE YOUR TIME         (hanagan le)LATCHMAN RESHAWN 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by FIBER SONDE out of SOUTHERN MARSH by GREAT NOTION)
10  GREATEST NOTION Jul21 Jun30       (joy j)RODRIGUEZ V 120 15.00    
  (by GREAT NOTION out of HAPPY HAUNTS by HARD SPUN)
11  RACING HOT LINE         (farrior ant)CONCEPCION AXEL 115 3.00 23% 3.30    
  (by WARRIOR'S REWARD out of RANSOM PAST DUE by STEPHEN GOT EVEN)
 
CT-5   08/11/2023 4620ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($15K) Purse ($24K) 3UP ALL PT- 9:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  E J'S REVENGE Jul13 May29 Apr29 Mar31 Feb11 (murtaugh an)MCKENZIE CONNIE 113 30.00    
2  OVERLY CRITICAL Jun30 Jun09 May18 Apr01 Mar01 (viands stace)MARRERO CARLOS 120 5.00 11% 8.20    
3  NAPA VALLEY (BRZ) Aug04 Jul15 Jun23 Jun09 Nov13 (ginter ra)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 120 3.50 5% 17.50    
4  PYEONG CHANG Jun24 Jun02 May18 Apr01 Feb18 (runco jef)BOCACHICA J 112 8.00    
5  FROG TOWN Aug04 Jul14 May18 Apr08 Feb20 (farrior an)LATCHMAN RESHAWN 116 4.00 11% 7.70    
6  LIKE SEGAL Jul16 Jun02 Apr01 Mar16 Jan19 (contrer)NUNEZ MAURICIO 124 8.00    
7  MR HOOVER Jul14 Mar09 Feb17 Jan26 Oct22 (brown ronne)CONCEPCION AXEL 115 4.50    
8  RAD PAISLEY Jun30 Jun09 Apr29 Apr16 Mar24 (farrior a)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 120 3.00 47% 1.10    
 
CT-6   08/11/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($26.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 9:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EL REY DE PAPA         (cornwell jame)RIVERA JAVIER 120 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MADEFROMLUCKY out of TIME TO WINK by GIMMEAWINK)
2  BOOYAH Jun21 May19 Apr16 Apr01 Mar04 (jackson l)CULLUM W 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by LEMON DROP KID out of CLAIRENATION by BERNSTEIN)
3  DREAM FORCE May14 Feb18 Dec26 Nov19 Jul22 (brown w)CRUZ ANGEL 120 4.00    
  (by TAPIT out of TO DREAM ABOUT by MONARCHOS)
4  RUSH TO CANDY Jul26 Jun30 Jun09 May04 Mar26 (pickett crysta)MONTANO JOSE 124 12.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of FLATTERING BEA by FLATTER)
5  LIL BUDDY Jul29         (shanley timothy)BOCACHICA O 120 15.00    
  (by BANDBOX out of GRAND IDEA by CATIENUS)
6  SMOKIN SMITTY Jul08 Jun22       (rideout anthony)RODRIGUEZ V 120 30.00    
  (by HELLO BROADWAY out of CLASSY DANIELA by REGAL CLASSIC)
7  OCCASIONAL MOON Jul22 Jul07 Jun21 May29 May05 (maldonado jonath)ACOSTA D 120 1.60 55% 0.80    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of OCCASIONALLY by TIZNOW)
8  TEMPESTIVO Jul21 Jun16 May05 Apr13   (runco jeff )CONCEPCION AXEL 115 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by IRISH WAR CRY out of AFFEZIONAMENTE by FLATTER)
9  YO VINNIE Jul21 Jul01       (runco jef)BOCACHICA J 110 4.50 15% 5.60    
  (by CREATIVE CAUSE out of YOLO LADY by EASTERN ECHO)
10  LOCO Jul09 Jun22 Nov09 Oct12 Sep17 (hetrick kr)LATCHMAN RESHAWN 124 12.00    
  (by CREATIVE CAUSE out of SWEET TESS by AFLEET ALEX)
 
CT-7   08/11/2023 4620ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($27.4K) 3UP ALL PT-10:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OFFICER STONE Jul15 Jun09 May19 Apr27 Apr06 (figgins l)BOCACHICA O 120 12.00    
2  TREASURER Jul21 Jun30 Jun01 Mar30 Mar10 (meyers madi)MENDEZ MARSHALL 116 5.00 5% 18.50    
3  I'M THE MONEY MAN Jul21 Jun30 May19 Apr28 Apr06 (sigler rona)CONCEPCION AXEL 111 5.00 26% 2.80    
4  DON'TCALLTOOEARLY Jul21 Jul07 Jun30 Jun03 May19 (atkins mi)BOCACHICA J 110 12.00    
5  O'RIGSBY Jul21 Jun30 Jun09 May19 Apr20 (meehan eliza)WHITACRE GRANT 116 15.00    
6  VAGABOND VIRGIN Jul22         (runco jef)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 124 4.50 9% 9.60    
7  ALDRINALINE Jul21 Oct12 Sep14     (contreras javier)HO WESLEY 116 20.00    
8  I'LLTAKECAREOFIT Jun30 May13 Apr28 Mar31   (petty kristy)LARROSA G 116 3.50 18% 4.50    
9  RED HOT TODDY Jul15 May26 Apr07 Feb23 Jan26 (jones michael )MONTANO JOSE 120 12.00    
10  JAZZ WITH DENIS Jul21 Jun24 Jun03 May13 Apr22 (sigler ronald)LOPEZ ANTONIO 116 4.00 21% 3.70    
 
CT-8   08/11/2023 2970ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($10.8K) 3UP M/F PT-10:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  PETTYFORURTHOUGHTS May11 Apr20 Mar24 Mar04 Feb24 (meehan eliza)WHITACRE GRANT 122 10.00    
2  ELLIES AT WINDSOR Jul20 Jul07 May19 Apr29 Mar18 (johnson jamey )ARAUJO DENIS 118 1.60 32% 2.20    
3  COWGIRL ATTITUDE Jul07 Jun03 May11 Apr28   (adorno jean)MENDEZ MARSHALL 118 4.50 16% 5.40    
4  PATTI BLUE EYES Jul28 Jun24 May25 Mar31 Mar09 (farrior a)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 118 8.00 8% 10.90    
5  CAT WITH A NOTION Jul07 May18 Apr15 Oct08 Sep17 (figgins ollie )RIOS-CONDE A 118 5.00 24% 3.20    
6  IT'S A REAL HONOR Jun30 Jun03 May11 Apr15 Apr01 (perez e)NUNEZ MAURICIO 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
7  I SHALLBE RELEASED Jul13 Jun17 May18 Apr21 Apr07 (walters l)PELTROCHE F 120 6.00    
8  WARRIORINTHEHOUSE Jun30 Apr15 Feb22 Feb02 Jan11 (aylor natasha)LOPEZ ANTONIO 122 20.00    
9  ABUNDANT STORY Jul24         (sharp j)ACOSTA D 120 15.00    
10  POWER SONDE Jul07 May18 Apr07 Jan18 Dec01 (bourne j)LARROSA G 122 20.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.