Handicappers' Racing Form

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Ellis Park
Sunday - August 14, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss


Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

 
ELP-1   08/14/2022 5280ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 2 F PT- 1:50
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
KEY TO SUCCESS         (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00    
SCR  CATHERINE BLAZE Jul15 Jul04 Jun17 May26   (leonard g)DE CRUZ 119 30.00    
FLASHY GEM Jul15         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.50 36% 1.80    
WHAT AN HONOR Jul15         (maker j)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 2.00 39% 1.50    
GRAY FROST         (reed r)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 15.00    
BASILICA D ORO Jul17         (orantes r)MORALES EDGAR 119 30.00    
BECK AND CALL         (walsh brend)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 6.00    
BELLA MAKER         (kenneally eddie)BEJARANO R 119 8.00    
KILLING TIME Jul23         (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 6.00    
10  MORIARTY Jul31 Jun26       (bogle fergus)GRAHAM J 119 30.00    
 
ELP-2   08/14/2022 5280ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($61K) 3 ALL PT- 2:18
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ELUSIVE TARGET Mar12 Feb11 Jan14     (lobo h)CORRALES GERARDO 120 3.00 33% 2.00    
SPANKSTER Jul02 Jun12 Apr29 Apr02   (lukas wayne)COURT K 120 6.00 24% 3.20    
AIR COMBAT Jul15         (ortiz al)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 2.50    
SCR  CAN'T HUSH THIS Jul24 Jun29 May20 Mar26 Feb19 (holsapple hutch)MORALES EDGAR 120 12.00 13% 6.60    
GUNTON ROE Jul12 Jun01       (lobo h)ACHARD ALEX 120 6.00    
VOLCANIC Jun04 Apr09 Feb12 Jan08   (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 6.00    
GLACIAL Jul04 Jun04 Mar12     (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 4.00    
 
ELP-3   08/14/2022 5280ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 2 F PT- 2:46
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
NAVY FLEET         (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 4.00 5% 19.00    
BEA FLATTERED Jul04         (romans dale)CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00    
SCR  SHE'S JERSEY TUFF Jul29 Jul04 Jun17 Jun03 May20 (leonard g)DE CRUZ 119 20.00    
MARMO MOON         (walden will)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 12.00    
CHOP CHOP         (cox h)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 3.00 29% 2.40    
BEL ROSSO         (hiles a)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 15.00    
DON'T GO CHANGING         (stall alber)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00    
AHA MOMENT         (casse mark)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00    
SURE ENOUGH         (lynch a)LANERIE J 119 6.00    
10  GUNS N' LILIES Jul22         (wilkes ian )LEPAROUX R 119 8.00    
11  SAVE YOUR TEARS Jul31         (diodoro robertino)COHEN DAVID 119 2.00 45% 1.20    
 
ELP-4   08/14/2022 5610ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:14
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SIGNADORA Jul08         (walsh brend)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 124 4.50    
SMUGNESS Jul10 Jun04 Apr28     (devaux cherie)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 8.00    
LITTLE GIA Jul29         (vaccarezza carlo)BEJARANO R 118 20.00    
ISABEL DE CLARE         (wojczynski j)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 30.00    
LOVELY PRINCESS Jul23 Apr23       (mcpeek kenneth )LEBRON VICTOR 118 5.00 13% 6.80    
CANDY KICK Jun19         (devaux cheri)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00    
SCR  SPARE CASH Jun30 May15 Apr27 Mar24 Feb11 (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 124 2.50 28% 2.60    
QUALITY STAR Jul06 May29 May04 Apr15 Mar19 (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 6.00 18% 4.70    
GUN MOLL Jul17         (hamilton sara)PETERSON FERRIN 118 12.00    
10  MY LILY MAE Jul29 Jul02 May14 Apr22 Apr02 (kinmon keith)BECKMAN ALICE 111 8.00 5% 19.00    
11  ARROBLUE         (mott i)GRAHAM J 118 12.00    
12  ALEATORY Jul16         (wilkes ian )LEPAROUX R 118 15.00    
SCR  SUPER WEST Aug06         (green troy)MORALES EDGAR 118 30.00    
SCR  FASCINATION         (cox h)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 3.00 12% 7.20    
SCR  IRISH KITTEN Jul14 Jul05       (platt noah)WISEMAN ISAIAH 118 30.00    
SCR  SHA GIRL Jul29 May26       (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 8.00    
 
ELP-5   08/14/2022 4620ft DIRT RC2 FAST nongraded Stake Purse ($125K) 2 ALL PT- 3:42
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ZAICI Jul02 Jun09       (diodoro robertino)COHEN DAVID 120 10.00    
CURLY JACK Jul16 Jun02       (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 120 2.00 22% 3.50    
ROMAN GIANT Jul16 Jun30 Jun09 May19 Apr28 (asmussen ste)HERNANDEZ J 120 4.00    
ELI'S PROMISE Jul08 Jun19       (divito p)LANDEROS CHRIS 120 6.00 9% 10.20    
FROSTED DEPARTURE Jul22 Jul02       (mcpeek g)LANERIE J 120 5.00    
TOP RECRUIT Jul09 Jun09       (maker michae)CORRALES GERARDO 120 2.50 41% 1.40    
 
ELP-6   08/14/2022 4620ft DIRT RC2 FAST nongraded Stake Purse ($125K) 2 F PT- 4:10
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SHOPLIFTER Jun29 Jun08       (kenneally eddie)BEJARANO R 120 12.00    
CRACKALACKING Jul04 Apr21       (hamilton sa)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 12.00    
ZAPPLE Jul17         (leitch danie)CORRALES GERARDO 120 8.00    
MOR LIVELY Jul17         (asmussen ste)HERNANDEZ J 120 8.00    
CHIQUITA MOSCA Jul31 Jul04 Jun19 May26   (bahena ismael)MIRANDA ROGELIO 120 30.00    
C C CRUISE CONTROL Jul15 Jun17       (mcpeek g)LANERIE J 120 12.00    
SCR  PACHANGA LOCA Jun02 Apr22       (gutierrez faust)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 20.00    
TAP'ER LIGHT Jul22         (dibona s)REYES LEONEL 120 20.00    
EMPIRE OF MY OWN Jul04 Jun10 May05     (asmussen st)LEPAROUX R 120 3.00 26% 2.90    
10  HOLIDAY DECISION Jul01 Jun10       (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 120 4.50 18% 4.60    
11  KISS ME ON OCONEE Jun17         (amoss m)GRAHAM J 120 12.00    
12  JUSTA WARRIOR Jul22         (ortiz al)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 5.00 24% 3.20    
13  PACHUCA Jul16         (gutierrez faust)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 15.00    
SCR  KARMA GHIA Jul14 Jun17 May27     (lucas wayne)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 30.00    
SCR  OUTOFNOTHINGATALL Jul07         (diodoro robertino)COHEN DAVID 120 15.00    
SCR  NAUGHTY LOTTIE Jul09         (jeansonne justi)LOZADA CARLOS 120 15.00 10% 9.40    
 
ELP-7   08/14/2022 4620ft DIRT RC2 FAST nongraded Stake Purse ($100K) 3 F PT- 4:40
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
RING ME DARLING Jul03 Jun18 May22     (garcia genaro)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 20.00    
DAME JOVIALE         (arnold r)GRAHAM J 118 8.00    
TAKE A STAND Jul23 Jun19 Apr30 Apr10 Feb26 (oliver vi)DE CRUZ 118 10.00    
OPTIONALITY May08 Mar27 Feb26 Jan29   (asmussen ste)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.50 10% 9.00    
LAST LEAF Jul16 Jun18 May14 Mar26 Mar05 (spatz b)BEJARANO R 120 2.00 37% 1.70    
QUEENS UP Jul30 Jul09       (divito p)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 8.00    
GUNNING Jul02 Jun04       (mcpeek g)LANERIE J 118 4.50 19% 4.20    
PATNA Jul09 Jun11 Apr28 Mar26   (cox h)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 5.00 12% 7.40    
GATA RUNZ Jul30 Jul09       (murphy swa)ROMAN KEVIN 118 20.00    
10  VALENTINA DAY Jul23 Jan16       (colebrook be)CORRALES GERARDO 118 10.00    
 
ELP-8   08/14/2022 5280ft DIRT RC2 FAST nongraded Stake Purse ($125K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:10
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FOUR GRACES Jun25 May07 Apr09 Mar12 Jan29 (wilkes ian )LEPAROUX R 122 4.50 39% 1.60    
SUPER QUICK Jul02 May20 Apr22 Mar16   (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 2.50 25% 3.00    
GRAYSONSMACHO GAL Jul08         (ortiz al)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 10.00    
TEMPER TIME Jul09 Jun04 May06 Apr09 Mar12 (romans dale)BEJARANO R 122 10.00    
JILTED BRIDE Jul08 Jun10 May06 Mar18 Feb12 (asmussen ste)HERNANDEZ J 122 4.00 7% 14.20    
XTREMA Jul10 Jun09 May03     (heitzman eric)COHEN DAVID 122 20.00    
ROC'S PRINCESS Jul03 Jun02       (gowan william)LANERIE J 122 20.00    
LI'L TOOTSIE Jul03 May30 Apr02 Mar11 Jan22 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 122 5.00 7% 12.90    
RECODED Aug07 Jul02 May29 May03 Apr16 (foster eric)CORRALES GERARDO 122 20.00    
10  SALUTE THE FLAG Jun11 May21 Mar31 Feb13   (jones larr)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 15.00    
SCR  TAKE CHARGE LORIN Jul23 Jun25 Jun11     (lukas wayne)COURT K 122 20.00    
 
ELP-9   08/14/2022 5280ft DIRT RC2 FAST nongraded Stake Purse ($200K) 3 ALL PT- 5:40
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FRIAR LAURENCE Jul17 Jan22       (colebrook be)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 8.00 12% 7.40    
STRAVA Jun04 Apr16 Feb19 Jan15   (stewart dall)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.50 32% 2.20    
TOP OF THE CHARTS Jun25 May28       (lynch a)GRAHAM J 118 4.00 30% 2.30    
ROME Jul30 Jul09 Jun11 May23 May13 (condon schu)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 15.00    
WE ALL SEE IT Jul04 Jun04 Apr16 Mar19 Feb11 (cano munoz)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 12.00    
CHASING TIME Jul17 Jun11 May21 Apr02 Feb26 (asmussen m)BEJARANO R 118 8.00    
KNOCKER DOWN Jul29 Jul08 Jun11 May21   (murphy swa)ROMAN KEVIN 118 12.00    
STEAL SUNSHINE Jul09 May26 Apr30 Apr02 Mar02 (dibona s)REYES LEONEL 118 8.00    
TRADEMARK Jul09 May07 Apr09 Mar12 Feb12 (oliver victo)CORRALES GERARDO 118 2.50    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.