Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Sunday - August 14, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   08/14/2022 5280ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 2 F PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KEY TO SUCCESS         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00 ★    
SCR  CATHERINE BLAZE Jul15 Jul04 Jun17 May26   (leonard)DE CRUZ 119 30.00    
3  FLASHY GEM Jul15         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.50 36% 1.80    
4  WHAT AN HONOR Jul15         (maker michael)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 2.00 39% 1.50    
5  GRAY FROST         (reed r)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 15.00 ★    
6  BASILICA D ORO Jul17         (orantes yoni )MORALES EDGAR 119 30.00    
7  BECK AND CALL         (walsh bre)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 6.00 ★    
8  BELLA MAKER         (kenneally eddie)BEJARANO R 119 8.00    
9  KILLING TIME Jul23         (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 6.00    
10  MORIARTY Jul31 Jun26       (bogle fergus)GRAHAM J 119 30.00    
 
ELP-2   08/14/2022 5280ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($61K) 3 ALL PT- 2:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ELUSIVE TARGET Mar12 Feb11 Jan14     (lobo paulo)CORRALES GERARDO 120 3.00 33% 2.00    
2  SPANKSTER Jul02 Jun12 Apr29 Apr02   (lukas wayne)COURT K 120 6.00 24% 3.20    
3  AIR COMBAT Jul15         (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 2.50 ★    
SCR  CAN'T HUSH THIS Jul24 Jun29 May20 Mar26 Feb19 (holsapple hut)MORALES EDGAR 120 12.00 13% 6.60    
5  GUNTON ROE Jul12 Jun01       (lobo h)ACHARD ALEX 120 6.00    
6  VOLCANIC Jun04 Apr09 Feb12 Jan08   (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 6.00    
7  GLACIAL Jul04 Jun04 Mar12     (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 4.00 ★    
 
ELP-3   08/14/2022 5280ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 2 F PT- 2:46
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NAVY FLEET         (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 4.00 5% 19.00    
2  BEA FLATTERED Jul04         (romans dal)CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00    
SCR  SHE'S JERSEY TUFF Jul29 Jul04 Jun17 Jun03 May20 (leonard)DE CRUZ 119 20.00    
4  MARMO MOON         (walden wi)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 12.00    
5  CHOP CHOP         (cox h)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 3.00 29% 2.40    
6  BEL ROSSO         (hiles a)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 15.00    
7  DON'T GO CHANGING         (stall alb)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00    
8  AHA MOMENT         (casse mark)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00 ★    
9  SURE ENOUGH         (lynch a)LANERIE J 119 6.00 ★    
10  GUNS N' LILIES Jul22         (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 119 8.00    
11  SAVE YOUR TEARS Jul31         (diodoro roberti)COHEN DAVID 119 2.00 45% 1.20    
 
ELP-4   08/14/2022 5610ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SIGNADORA Jul08         (walsh bre)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 124 4.50    
2  SMUGNESS Jul10 Jun04 Apr28     (devaux cheri)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 8.00    
3  LITTLE GIA Jul29         (vaccarezza carlo)BEJARANO R 118 20.00    
4  ISABEL DE CLARE         (wojczynski)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 30.00    
5  LOVELY PRINCESS Jul23 Apr23       (mcpeek kennet)LEBRON VICTOR 118 5.00 13% 6.80    
6  CANDY KICK Jun19         (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00    
SCR  SPARE CASH Jun30 May15 Apr27 Mar24 Feb11 (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 124 2.50 28% 2.60    
8  QUALITY STAR Jul06 May29 May04 Apr15 Mar19 (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 6.00 18% 4.70    
9  GUN MOLL Jul17         (hamilton sa)PETERSON FERRIN 118 12.00    
10  MY LILY MAE Jul29 Jul02 May14 Apr22 Apr02 (kinmon keith)BECKMAN ALICE 111 8.00 5% 19.00    
11  ARROBLUE         (mott i)GRAHAM J 118 12.00    
12  ALEATORY Jul16         (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 118 15.00    
SCR  SUPER WEST Aug06         (green troy)MORALES EDGAR 118 30.00    
SCR  FASCINATION         (cox h)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 3.00 12% 7.20    
SCR  IRISH KITTEN Jul14 Jul05       (platt noah)WISEMAN ISAIAH 118 30.00    
SCR  SHA GIRL Jul29 May26       (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 8.00    
 
ELP-5   08/14/2022 4620ft DIRT RC2 FAST nongraded Stake Purse ($125K) 2 ALL PT- 3:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ZAICI Jul02 Jun09       (diodoro roberti)COHEN DAVID 120 10.00    
2  CURLY JACK Jul16 Jun02       (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 120 2.00 22% 3.50    
3  ROMAN GIANT Jul16 Jun30 Jun09 May19 Apr28 (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 120 4.00 ★    
4  ELI'S PROMISE Jul08 Jun19       (divito james)LANDEROS CHRIS 120 6.00 9% 10.20    
5  FROSTED DEPARTURE Jul22 Jul02       (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 120 5.00 ★    
6  TOP RECRUIT Jul09 Jun09       (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 120 2.50 41% 1.40    
 
ELP-6   08/14/2022 4620ft DIRT RC2 FAST nongraded Stake Purse ($125K) 2 F PT- 4:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHOPLIFTER Jun29 Jun08       (kenneally eddie)BEJARANO R 120 12.00    
2  CRACKALACKING Jul04 Apr21       (hamilton )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 12.00    
3  ZAPPLE Jul17         (leitch dan)CORRALES GERARDO 120 8.00    
4  MOR LIVELY Jul17         (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 120 8.00 ★    
5  CHIQUITA MOSCA Jul31 Jul04 Jun19 May26   (bahena isma)MIRANDA ROGELIO 120 30.00    
6  C C CRUISE CONTROL Jul15 Jun17       (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 120 12.00    
SCR  PACHANGA LOCA Jun02 Apr22       (gutierrez fau)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 20.00    
8  TAP'ER LIGHT Jul22         (dibona robert )REYES LEONEL 120 20.00    
9  EMPIRE OF MY OWN Jul04 Jun10 May05     (asmussen )LEPAROUX R 120 3.00 26% 2.90    
10  HOLIDAY DECISION Jul01 Jun10       (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 120 4.50 18% 4.60    
11  KISS ME ON OCONEE Jun17         (amoss m)GRAHAM J 120 12.00    
12  JUSTA WARRIOR Jul22         (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 5.00 24% 3.20    
13  PACHUCA Jul16         (gutierrez fau)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 15.00    
SCR  KARMA GHIA Jul14 Jun17 May27     (lucas wayn)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 30.00    
SCR  OUTOFNOTHINGATALL Jul07         (diodoro roberti)COHEN DAVID 120 15.00    
SCR  NAUGHTY LOTTIE Jul09         (jeansonne jus)LOZADA CARLOS 120 15.00 10% 9.40    
 
ELP-7   08/14/2022 4620ft DIRT RC2 FAST nongraded Stake Purse ($100K) 3 F PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RING ME DARLING Jul03 Jun18 May22     (garcia gena)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 20.00    
2  DAME JOVIALE         (arnold r)GRAHAM J 118 8.00    
3  TAKE A STAND Jul23 Jun19 Apr30 Apr10 Feb26 (oliver )DE CRUZ 118 10.00    
4  OPTIONALITY May08 Mar27 Feb26 Jan29   (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.50 10% 9.00    
5  LAST LEAF Jul16 Jun18 May14 Mar26 Mar05 (spatz b)BEJARANO R 120 2.00 37% 1.70    
6  QUEENS UP Jul30 Jul09       (divito james)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 8.00 ★    
7  GUNNING Jul02 Jun04       (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 118 4.50 19% 4.20    
8  PATNA Jul09 Jun11 Apr28 Mar26   (cox h)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 5.00 12% 7.40    
9  GATA RUNZ Jul30 Jul09       (murphy s)ROMAN KEVIN 118 20.00    
10  VALENTINA DAY Jul23 Jan16       (colebrook )CORRALES GERARDO 118 10.00    
 
ELP-8   08/14/2022 5280ft DIRT RC2 FAST nongraded Stake Purse ($125K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FOUR GRACES Jun25 May07 Apr09 Mar12 Jan29 (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 122 4.50 39% 1.60    
2  SUPER QUICK Jul02 May20 Apr22 Mar16   (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 2.50 25% 3.00    
3  GRAYSONSMACHO GAL Jul08         (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 10.00 ★    
4  TEMPER TIME Jul09 Jun04 May06 Apr09 Mar12 (romans dale)BEJARANO R 122 10.00    
5  JILTED BRIDE Jul08 Jun10 May06 Mar18 Feb12 (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 122 4.00 7% 14.20    
6  XTREMA Jul10 Jun09 May03     (heitzman eric)COHEN DAVID 122 20.00    
7  ROC'S PRINCESS Jul03 Jun02       (gowan william)LANERIE J 122 20.00    
8  LI'L TOOTSIE Jul03 May30 Apr02 Mar11 Jan22 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 122 5.00 7% 12.90    
9  RECODED Aug07 Jul02 May29 May03 Apr16 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 122 20.00    
10  SALUTE THE FLAG Jun11 May21 Mar31 Feb13   (jones la)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 15.00    
SCR  TAKE CHARGE LORIN Jul23 Jun25 Jun11     (lukas wayne)COURT K 122 20.00    
 
ELP-9   08/14/2022 5280ft DIRT RC2 FAST nongraded Stake Purse ($200K) 3 ALL PT- 5:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FRIAR LAURENCE Jul17 Jan22       (colebrook )MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 8.00 12% 7.40    
2  STRAVA Jun04 Apr16 Feb19 Jan15   (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.50 32% 2.20    
3  TOP OF THE CHARTS Jun25 May28       (lynch a)GRAHAM J 118 4.00 30% 2.30    
4  ROME Jul30 Jul09 Jun11 May23 May13 (condon sc)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 15.00    
5  WE ALL SEE IT Jul04 Jun04 Apr16 Mar19 Feb11 (cano mun)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 12.00    
6  CHASING TIME Jul17 Jun11 May21 Apr02 Feb26 (asmussen steven )BEJARANO R 118 8.00 ★    
7  KNOCKER DOWN Jul29 Jul08 Jun11 May21   (murphy s)ROMAN KEVIN 118 12.00    
8  STEAL SUNSHINE Jul09 May26 Apr30 Apr02 Mar02 (dibona robert )REYES LEONEL 118 8.00 ★    
9  TRADEMARK Jul09 May07 Apr09 Mar12 Feb12 (oliver vic)CORRALES GERARDO 118 2.50    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.