Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Friday - November 21, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (3/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/4)-(3/4) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (3/4)-(5/6/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (3/4)-(5/6/1)-(4/1/5) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
CD-2   WIN (5/6/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/6/1)-(5/6/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/6/1)-(5/6/1)-(5/6/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/6/1)-(4/1/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/6/1)-(4/1/5)-(6/4/9/8) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-3   WIN (4/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/5)-(4/1/9/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (4/1/5)-(4/1/9/5)-(4/1/9/5) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (4/1/5)-(6/4/9/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/1/5)-(6/4/9/8)-(7/3/4/1) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-4   WIN (6/4/9/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/4/9/8)-(6/4/9/7/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (6/4/9/8)-(6/4/9/7/8)-(6/4/9/7/8) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (6/4/9/8)-(7/3/4/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (6/4/9/8)-(7/3/4/1)-(1/9/5/8) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-5   WIN (7/3/4/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/3/4/1)-(7/3/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/3/4/1)-(7/3/4/1)-(7/3/4/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/3/4/1)-(1/9/5/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (7/3/4/1)-(1/9/5/8)-(3/1/4/7/5) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-6   WIN (1/9/5/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/9/5/8)-(1/9/5/8/10) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (1/9/5/8)-(1/9/5/8/10)-(1/9/5/8/10) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (1/9/5/8)-(3/1/4/7/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/9/5/8)-(3/1/4/7/5)-(12/3/8/5) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-7   WIN (3/1/4/7/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/1/4/7/5)-(3/1/4/7/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/1/4/7/5)-(3/1/4/7/5)-(3/1/4/7/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (3/1/4/7/5)-(12/3/8/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (3/1/4/7/5)-(12/3/8/5)-(7/6/5) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-8   WIN (12/3/8/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (12/3/8/5)-(12/3/8/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (12/3/8/5)-(12/3/8/5)-(12/3/8/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (12/3/8/5)-(7/6/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (12/3/8/5)-(7/6/5)-(6/11/10/9) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-9   WIN (7/6/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/6/5)-(7/6/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/6/5)-(7/6/5)-(7/6/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/6/5)-(6/11/10/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CD-10   WIN (6/11/10/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/11/10/9)-(6/11/10/12/9) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (6/11/10/9)-(6/11/10/12/9)-(6/11/10/12/9) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/21/2025 5280ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($80K) Purse ($83K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FIRST PLAYER Nov08 Sep25 Jul20 Jun29 Dec21 (asmussen stev)ORTIZ JR 121 2.50    
2  AUTHENTIC GALLOP Sep11 Jul05 May17 Mar15 Feb07 (amoss m)ORTIZ L 118 10.00    
3  ZAMBEZI Sep18 Aug02 Jun28 May26 Apr25 (jacobson d)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.00 46% 1.20    
4  SIR BAHJY Oct25 Oct01 Aug16 Jul30 Jun11 (garcia ge)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 120 4.00 26% 2.90    
SCR  HAILSTORM Oct22 Aug23 May01 Mar14 Feb16 (jacobson david)SAEZ LUIS 121 3.00    
SCR  SOLID LEFT Sep27 Aug09 Jul14 Jun05 May09 (santamaria car)CEDILLO ABEL 118 12.00    
 
CD-2   11/21/2025 4290ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($16K) Purse ($36K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TOTAL HEART Nov02 Oct15 Mar01 Oct18 Aug27 (lynch brian)GUTIERREZ MARIO 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
2  MINNESOTA ROSE Aug15 Jul13 Jun29 Jun06 May18 (miller )DE CRUZ 120 30.00    
3  MOMBAYLA Nov06 Sep26 Sep14 Aug16 Jul19 (crichton roh)TORRES A 120 4.00    
SCR  STAR WATCH Nov01 Oct04 Sep25 Sep05 Aug28 (manning j)JURADO EDDIE 120 30.00    
5  ALONGCOMESAWOMAN Oct30 Aug30 Sep15 Aug04 Jul06 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 120 1.00 38% 1.60    
6  GOLD DEL MAR Sep24 Sep12 Aug02 Jul14 Jun15 (salas mar)LEPAROUX R 120 4.50 29% 2.40    
7  STARLIT SOFI Nov01 Sep21 Aug17 Jul21 Jun13 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 6.00    
SCR  BIRTHDAY GIRL Feb06 Jan20 Jan01 Aug10   (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 6.00    
 
CD-3   11/21/2025 5610ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($57K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MO TOWN JAZZ Oct29 Sep11 Jul29 Jul09 Jun26 (hiles a)LANERIE J 121 15.00 10% 8.80    
2  BIG ROG Oct29 Sep28 Sep12 Aug11 Jul14 (king l)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 20.00    
3  COME TO PAPA Oct29 Sep12 Aug08 Jun21 Jun08 (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 124 2.00    
4  MORLOCK Nov05 Oct03 Aug29 Feb15 Dec21 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 121 1.20 55% 0.80    
5  KY DO DECLARE Sep28 Aug28 Aug09 Sep18 Aug31 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  OR MAGIQUE Oct24 Sep24 Mar26 Feb21 Feb06 (kerrick l)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 30.00    
7  MI COMPADRE Oct22 Sep09 Jul29 Jun14 May22 (williamso)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 20.00    
SCR  CONCRETE CRUISER Oct29 Mar08 Feb01 Dec05 Nov22 (contreras)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 121 8.00    
9  LEBOMBO Oct29 Jul21 Jun15 May08 Mar28 (williams)RODRIGUEZ A 124 6.00 ★    
 
CD-4   11/21/2025 4290ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($57K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LADY PIPPA Oct17 Aug07 Jul16 Jan18 Sep24 (medina rob)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 5.00    
2  QUEEN'S LEGACY Oct04 Apr27 Apr05 Dec06   (van thoma)MACHADO LUAN 124 15.00    
3  CLASSY EMILY Sep22 Aug12 Jul15     (pompell robert)CEDILLO ABEL 122 30.00    
4  SANG Oct04 Jun28 May09 Dec12 Oct25 (begley greg)DOYLE SOPHIE 124 3.50 31% 2.20    
5  BOLD BABY TENDER Oct30         (barrett ro)ANDERSON MCKENNA 122 15.00    
6  ADALENE Nov13 Oct13 Sep21 Sep10 Aug08 (wiggins lon)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 4.00 32% 2.10    
7  CLOUD NUMBER NINE Oct30 Oct08 Sep21     (williamso)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 4.50 ★    
8  BRAVE SAMANTHA Sep25 Sep06 Aug18 Jul14 Jun12 (medina ro)TORRES A 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
9  SAND QUEEN         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 122 8.00 13% 7.00    
SCR  PAULINE'S ANGEL         (king bar)RODRIGUEZ A 122 30.00    
SCR  REYA SUNSHINE Aug24 Aug08 Jul04 Jun07 May09 (hartman chris)BACON W 124 5.00    
 
CD-5   11/21/2025 5280ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($127K) 2 ALL PT- 2:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SO SPECIAL Oct11 Sep13 Aug04 Jul06   (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
2  SWAMP KING Sep28 Sep07 Aug17 Jul21   (hiles a)LANERIE J 122 15.00    
3  EASY WIND (CHI) Oct23 Sep28 Aug28 Jul21   (walsh p)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.50 10% 9.40    
4  PATROL SQUAD SIX Oct05 Sep10 Aug22     (romans dale)ORTIZ L 122 3.00 9% 10.30    
5  TIME FOR MONEY Oct26 Oct05 Aug30     (ennis john)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 6.00    
6  EAST VILLAGE Oct23 Sep28 Aug29     (mcpeek kennet)ORTIZ JR 122 4.00    
7  INFILTRATE Oct11 Aug08       (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.50 59% 0.70    
 
CD-6   11/21/2025 4290ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($67K) 2 ALL PT- 3:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HERBS BOLT Nov02 Sep26 Sep13 Aug08   (sharp joe)ORTIZ JR 119 3.00 29% 2.50    
SCR  REBEL WITH A CAUSE Oct11         (robson lauren)ORTIZ L 119 10.00    
3  TALMADGE Nov05         (ennis john)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 10.00    
4  SEPTEMBER SILVER Sep14 Aug11       (stewart d)LEPAROUX R 119 6.00    
5  ROYAL SAPPHIRE         (moger ed )BERMUDEZ E 119 15.00 6% 14.40    
6  ORVILLE'S MAP Oct31 Oct11 Sep18     (stewart da)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50    
7  SHOW ME THE MUNNY Nov01 Sep26       (mcgee paul)ELLIOTT JANE 119 4.00    
8  HONOR BOUND         (navarret)RODRIGUEZ A 119 20.00 6% 14.40    
SCR  PUT ME IN COACH Oct16         (gorostiet)BEALMEAR C 119 20.00 21% 3.80    
10  COAL FIRED         (lynch a)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00 ★    
11  MIDWAY MUNNY         (lobo h)MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00    
 
CD-7   11/21/2025 4620ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($50K) Purse ($76K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AUNT MO Oct24 Sep06 Jul26 Jun27 Mar09 (eurton pet)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.00 32% 2.10    
2  FEASIBLE Nov01 Sep14 Jul20 Jun20 Jun05 (shirer a)SAEZ LUIS 118 12.00    
3  ATLANTIC PASSAGE Oct17 Sep02 Jul26 Jun25   (brisset rodolp)ORTIZ L 118 5.00 34% 2.00    
4  BRUNCH WITH AMY Oct10 Sep13 Aug08 Jun27 Jun11 (sharp joe)ORTIZ JR 120 2.50 6% 15.80    
5  OAK ALLEY Oct24 Sep23 Jul14 May25 Apr17 (moger ed )BERMUDEZ E 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
6  LATE TO THE GAME Oct17 Sep15 Feb28 Jan19 Dec22 (medina ro)TORRES A 120 20.00    
7  VINO FRIZZANTE Mar22 Feb13 Jan05 Dec21 Nov09 (hiles a)LANERIE J 120 6.00 5% 18.40    
8  SUGAR HI Aug01 Jun29 May30 Sep02 Jun07 (damato ph)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 10.00    
SCR  MOON OVER CHOCTAW Sep14 Aug04 Mar16 Feb07 Jan03 (damato phi)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00    
10  REIGN CHAMPAGNE Oct30 Sep14 Jul14 Jun04 May11 (pitts helen)GUTIERREZ MARIO 118 20.00    
 
CD-8   11/21/2025 5610ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  THIRD KISS         (mott riley)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 15.00    
  (by MASTERY out of KINSLEY KISSES by CONGRATS)
SCR  REAL ASSAY         (devaux ch)TORRES A 121 12.00    
  (by RELOAD out of CARAT WEIGHT by TRAJECTORY)
3  MISS PHARAOH Oct09 Jun29 Jun07 Apr17 Feb27 (sims philip)GUTIERREZ MARIO 121 3.00 23% 3.40    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of MISS CHALLENGE by MORE THAN READY)
4  CLAIRITA Oct17         (bauer a)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 4.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of HERE MUSIC by DEHERE)
5  CLICK HERE Oct09 Aug27 Feb06     (blair jor)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by FLATTER out of BRIDAL ARCH by ARCHARCHARCH)
SCR  COASTAL CABIN Aug02         (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 121 8.00    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of SHORE BIRD by DEPUTED TESTAMONY)
SCR  CHERE AMIA Apr17 Mar02 Jan02 Nov30 Oct26 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 121 12.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of D' ELEGANCE by EL CORREDOR)
8  DON'T LOOK NOW Oct09 Sep06 Aug10     (arnold george )MACHADO LUAN 121 6.00 19% 4.20    
  (by OPEN FORUM out of AVERT YOUR EYE'S by NORTH POLE)
SCR  EENYMEANYMIGHTYMO Oct09 Aug31       (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 121 12.00    
  (by MO TOWN out of RUSTY HALO by ENGLISH CHANNEL)
SCR  THAMES Oct23 Apr17       (mott riley)TORRES A 121 3.50    
  (by GIFT BOX out of HENLEY by CORINTHIAN (IRE))
SCR  WORRY BE GONE         (cox h)ORTIZ JR 121 5.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of SPACE TALK by HIGH CHAPARRAL)
12  LADY IVA Oct23 Sep19 Aug23     (calhoun willia)ORTIZ L 121 2.50 33% 2.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of IVA by SCAT DADDY)
13  AUNTIE Oct23 Aug31 Jul18 Jun07 May18 (mccarthy michael )SAEZ LUIS 121 3.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of RUBILINDA by FRANKEL (GB))
SCR  TWOLATEBABYDOLL (FR) Oct09 Sep01 Aug02 Jun29 May25 (stall albe)HERNANDEZ J 121 6.00    
  (by RECOLETOS out of SIGN OF LIFE by LEMON DROP KID)
 
CD-9   11/21/2025 5610ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  GUN PARTY Oct30 Aug13 Jun29 Jun06 May10 (asmussen steve)ORTIZ L 121 8.00    
2  PRINCE OF POWER Oct25 Sep27 Aug31 Aug10 Jul21 (esqu)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 121 15.00    
3  BEST ACTOR Oct25 Sep24 Aug28 Aug12 Jun29 (m)DE CRUZ 121 15.00    
SCR  NOT THIS BOY Sep28 Aug03 Jun14 May02 Aug11 (cowans wil)HERNANDEZ J 121 1.60    
5  JAYHAWK Oct26 Oct04 Sep13 Aug02 Dec16 (casse mark)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 15.00 22% 3.50    
6  CAPITAL IDEA Oct24 Aug31 Jul27 Nov19 Sep02 (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 121 3.00 23% 3.40    
7  CATCHING FREEDOM Oct24 Sep28 Feb15 Jun22 May18 (cox h)ORTIZ JR 121 2.50 33% 2.00    
8  MACKMAN Oct16 Feb16 Jan25 Dec13 Nov09 (shirer a)SAEZ LUIS 123 12.00    
 
CD-10   11/21/2025 3960ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 F PT- 5:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  LADY GOT GAME         (lobo h)ORTIZ L 119 10.00    
  (by GAME WINNER out of FASHIONED LADY by OLD FASHIONED)
2  MISS BLANCO         (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 10.00    
  (by TAPIT out of MOREA by INDIAN CHARLIE)
3  LEGAL LIGHTNING Aug30         (schultz lindsa)CEDILLO ABEL 119 6.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of PROCURADORA by BODEMEISTER)
4  MY SWEET AGENDA         (barrett ro)ANDERSON MCKENNA 119 30.00    
  (by KNOWN AGENDA out of SWEAT AND SADDLE by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
SCR  CARA FELCE         (casse nor)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00    
  (by CARAVAGGIO out of PAMPERED PRETTY by TAPIT)
6  HALFWAY TO OMAHA Oct26         (newton tr)LEPAROUX R 119 4.00 30% 2.30    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of HALFWAY by TAPIT)
SCR  SMART LITTLE LASS         (norris steph)GONZALEZ KEVIN 119 30.00    
  (by HONOR CODE out of RISKY RISKY RISKY by CURLIN)
8  POPPY WOPPY         (sims philip)GUTIERREZ MARIO 119 20.00    
  (by MITOLE out of SEASIDE RETREAT by BLAME)
9  FLEETING MOON         (lynch a)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by BEAU LIAM out of FLEETING GLIMPSE by MALIBU MOON)
10  NOULIKEABOOK Oct10         (ennis john)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 8.00 22% 3.50    
  (by VOLATILE out of LEMON DANCER by LEMON DROP KID)
11  FIZZY LASS Oct26         (stewart dalla)ORTIZ JR 119 3.00 23% 3.30    
  (by BEAU LIAM out of TERM PAPER by PRIVATE TERMS)
12  R KENDL Nov08         (wainwright john)MCKEE J 119 6.00 ★    
  (by BASIN out of COZY GAIN by COZZENE)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.