Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - September 25, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (7/2/3/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/2/3/1)-(7/2/3/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/2/3/1)-(7/2/3/1)-(7/2/3/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/2/3/1)-(4/5/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/2/3/1)-(4/5/3)-(7/2/5) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-2   WIN (4/5/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/5/3)-(4/5/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/5/3)-(4/5/3)-(4/5/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/5/3)-(7/2/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/5/3)-(7/2/5)-(7/1/10/3) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-3   WIN (7/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/2/5)-(7/2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/2/5)-(7/2/5)-(7/2/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/2/5)-(7/1/10/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/2/5)-(7/1/10/3)-(5/9/1/4/2) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-4   WIN (7/1/10/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/1/10/3)-(7/1/10/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/1/10/3)-(7/1/10/3)-(7/1/10/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/1/10/3)-(5/9/1/4/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (7/1/10/3)-(5/9/1/4/2)-(8/5/4) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-5   WIN (5/9/1/4/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/9/1/4/2)-(5/9/1/4/6/2) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    TRI (5/9/1/4/2)-(5/9/1/4/6/2)-(5/9/1/4/6/2) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
    DD (5/9/1/4/2)-(8/5/4) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (5/9/1/4/2)-(8/5/4)-(1/9/5/6) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-6   WIN (8/5/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/5/4)-(8/5/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (8/5/4)-(8/5/4)-(8/5/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (8/5/4)-(1/9/5/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/5/4)-(1/9/5/6)-(1/5/4/3) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-7   WIN (1/9/5/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/9/5/6)-(1/9/3/5/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (1/9/5/6)-(1/9/3/5/6)-(1/9/3/5/6) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (1/9/5/6)-(1/5/4/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
CD-8   WIN (1/5/4/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/5/4/3)-(1/5/4/3/8/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/5/4/3)-(1/5/4/3/8/2)-(1/5/4/3/8/2) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   09/25/2025 5280ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($75K) Purse ($69K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SEVENON Aug23 Aug04 Oct23 Sep29   (holsapple hu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 15.00 5% 19.00    
2  RUNNING GAME Aug30 Jun14 May15     (sharp joe)ORTIZ JR 120 2.50 29% 2.40    
3  STORMIN' NANCY         (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
4  MCKINZIE'S GLORY Aug29 Jul24 Nov29 Oct27 Sep01 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 120 3.50    
SCR  LINDY CAN Sep02 Jul04 Jun11 May17 Apr24 (foley greg)CANNON DECLAN 120 12.00    
6  RISKY WAVE Aug31 Jul14 Jun03 Nov08 Oct20 (arnold ge)TORRES A 120 4.00    
7  LES IS BEST Aug30 Aug10 Jul14 Jul03 Jun12 (foster eri)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.00 43% 1.30    
8  ADDED TOUCH Feb26 Jan26 Nov06 Sep05 Aug19 (oliver vict)ALVARADO JUNIOR 120 10.00    
 
CD-2   09/25/2025 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($37K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  ST. ALBANS RAID Aug17 Jul19 Jun07 May11 Mar16 (shirer matt )BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 4.00    
2  INTO GOLDEN ROAD Aug30 Aug09 Jul05 Jun10 May27 (coontz arthu)TAVARES JAVIER 120 8.00    
3  STARCOURT Aug23 Aug02 Jul04 Apr29 Apr11 (roberson dennis)LANERIE J 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  SOHANA Sep11 May23 Apr05 Jul17 Jun14 (cox h)ORTIZ JR 121 2.00 60% 0.70    
5  ARGAN Aug23 Jun22 May08 Mar14 Jan15 (newton troy)CANNON DECLAN 121 4.50 12% 7.20    
6  ELLIOTT MOON Aug26 Aug02 Feb26 Feb01 Jan03 (kerrick l)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 15.00    
7  JUST AN OPINION Jul20 Jul12 Jun25 May11 Mar07 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50    
 
CD-3   09/25/2025 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($67K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GLOBAL QUOTE Aug22 Jun07 Apr19 Mar12 Jan18 (tomlinson )GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.00    
2  WHERE Y'AT Aug11 Jul14 Jun07 May17 Apr26 (tomlinson m)CONCEPCION AXEL 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  VINO DOMINUS Jun27 Apr26 Sep18 Aug07   (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 120 4.00    
4  FLY GUY MICK Jul13 Jun21 Jun01     (romans dale)LANERIE J 120 3.50    
5  EMPIRE RANCH Sep13 Aug09       (morse l)MORALES EDGAR 120 15.00 5% 19.00    
6  WEAPONIZED Aug20 Mar22       (mott riley)ALVARADO JUNIOR 120 4.50    
7  GLOBALIST Sep11 Jun26 Apr24     (cox h)ORTIZ JR 120 2.50 67% 0.50    
 
CD-4   09/25/2025 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($78K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CANDY LOVER Jul05 May30 May11 Mar01 Jan31 (mcgee paul)HERNANDEZ J 121 4.50 18% 4.60    
2  LIUZZA Jul24 Jun27 May15 Feb02 Jan12 (amoss thomas )ORTIZ JR 121 4.00    
3  ANTIQUE SILVER Aug09 Jul05 Jun15 May17 Feb01 (jacobson david)SAEZ LUIS 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  CRUSHED ICE Sep06 Jul28 Jun27 Jun11 May22 (quartarol)LEPAROUX R 121 30.00    
SCR  ASIAN MATRIARCH Aug01 Jun13 May16 Jan26 Jan01 (sweezey j)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 20.00    
6  STORY HOUR Aug22 Jul05 May15 Apr30 Feb24 (medina rober)LANDEROS CHRIS 121 12.00    
7  BOURBON BREEZE Aug22 Jul26 Jul04 Jun15 May02 (brisset ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50 36% 1.80    
8  CURRENT CLIMATE Aug17 Mar20 Mar01 Feb12 Dec21 (foster er)TORRES A 121 6.00    
9  ALWAYS ANGELS Aug07 Jul10 Jun19 May30 Apr30 (sharp joe)MORALES EDGAR 121 5.00    
10  J RIVERS Aug03 Jun27 May15 Mar26 Feb28 (jacobson david)LANERIE J 121 8.00 10% 9.40    
 
CD-5   09/25/2025 4290ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 6:59
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HONFLEUR         (brown chad)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00 12% 7.70    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of COWORTH PARK by LEA)
2  THEORETICAL         (casse norm )ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of SHYSHEISNOT by TRIBAL RULE)
3  JUNO PALACE Aug28 Aug06 Jul28 Apr06   (donjuan )RODRIGUEZ A 119 20.00    
  (by COLLECTED out of GITTEL by BERNSTEIN)
4  LETS SHANCE IT Sep08 Aug05       (west aaron )CONCEPCION AXEL 119 15.00 7% 13.00    
  (by SHANCELOT out of TRANSLATOR by STRAVINSKY)
5  COUNTING STARS         (casse mark)ORTIZ JR 119 4.50 37% 1.70    
  (by BIG DADDY CARTEL out of STARS IN MY EYE by MR EYE OPENER)
6  SOARING HIGH         (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00 ★    
  (by CURLIN out of SONGBIRD by TALC)
7  JACKIE BLUE         (casse mark)MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00    
  (by KNICKS GO out of BACK UP THE BRINKS by TIZNOW)
8  COCO CONNECT         (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00    
  (by CONNECT out of MISS CHANEL by COMMISSIONER)
9  FASHION DESIGNER Aug23         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.00 22% 3.50    
  (by ISLAND WHIRL out of BEACH WALK by DISTORTED HUMOR)
10  QUALITY AMI Aug02         (amoss tho)LEPAROUX R 119 10.00    
  (by ESSENTIAL QUALITY out of GALLOPING AMI by VICTORY GALLOP)
11  FUNNY BUNNY         (beckman whitwor)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of TAP OF THE DAY by PULPIT)
12  MY GLENDA FAYE         (stewart d)TORRES A 119 15.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of TAKE CHARGE GLENDA by TAPIT)
SCR  TAM TAM Aug23         (bauer phili)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 3.50    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of PRINCESS JULIA by DISTORTED HUMOR)
SCR  BELLA BALLERINA         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of PRETTY CITY DANCER by TAPIT)
SCR  ELITE Aug23         (brisset rodolp)MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00    
  (by GOLDEN GEAR out of LADY THEODORA by MARI'S BOOK)
SCR  ESSENTIAL COFFEE Aug10 Jun29 May30     (asmussen ste)GEROUX FLORENT 119 8.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of WINDING WAY by MALIBU MOON)
 
CD-6   09/25/2025 7260ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:28
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  CAROLO RAPIDO Aug11 Jun11 May23 Apr26 Mar22 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 122 15.00    
SCR  KING CURLIN Aug18 Jul26 Jun25 May19 Apr17 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 122 15.00    
SCR  MOUNT RUNDLE Jun21 May18 Apr24 Mar22 Oct18 (nihei michelle)ACHARD ALEX 122 8.00    
4  DAUNT Aug09 Jul19 Nov09 Oct19 Aug17 (mcgee pau)LEPAROUX R 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
5  BARRICADE Aug31 Jul29 Jun07 Apr07 Mar09 (sharp joe)DETTORI LANFRANCO 120 6.00 28% 2.60    
6  ZVEREV Aug16 Jul20 May10 Mar14 Sep07 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.00    
7  BIG TO DO Aug31 Aug11 Jun08 May11 Feb22 (wismer gl)CAMACHO JR 122 20.00    
8  COMMON DEFENSE Sep04 Aug09 Jul12 Mar23 Feb24 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 124 2.00 30% 2.30    
SCR  CURLIN'S MALIBU Aug21 Aug06 Jun28 May16 Apr12 (sharp joe)ORTIZ JR 122 4.00    
 
CD-7   09/25/2025 5610ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HOP SING Aug10 Jun29 May17 Apr19 Feb27 (d'angelo fra)SAEZ LUIS 122 2.50 43% 1.30    
2  JONATHAN'S SONG Aug05 Jul06 Jun07     (bauer philip )MORALES EDGAR 120 15.00    
3  MAXIMUM PROMISE Aug30 May03 Mar22 Feb22 Jan18 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.00 ★    
4  WHISKEY SHOT Nov03 Oct09 Aug26     (brisset ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 10.00    
5  FIRST PLAYER Jul20 Jun29 Dec21 Nov15 Oct25 (mcgee pau)LEPAROUX R 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  COALMOON Aug02 Jun22 May26 Mar22 Feb14 (lobo h)MACHADO LUAN 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  FORT NELSON Aug24 Jul04 Oct12     (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 6.00    
8  DE' MEDICI Aug07 Nov16 Sep01 Jul20 Jun16 (mccarthy mi)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 15.00    
9  NAVAJO WARRIOR Aug31 May26 Apr27 Mar01 Feb01 (joseph saffie)ORTIZ JR 122 3.50 32% 2.10    
 
CD-8   09/25/2025 5610ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CHILLAX Aug10 Jul13 May03 Apr08 Mar01 (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 120 2.50 54% 0.80    
  (by BERNARDINI out of KEEPSHERCOOL by SMART STRIKE)
2  MONEY MAN Aug22 Jul13 May24 Mar22 Feb22 (heath des)DETTORI LANFRANCO 120 10.00 ★    
  (by DIALED IN out of ORO BLANCO by HOLD FOR GOLD)
3  SHALLUS Aug25 Jul28 Jul01 Jun01 May18 (labra rogeli)LANDEROS CHRIS 124 30.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of STRIKE FREE by CONCERN)
4  SIXTYSEVEN MUSTANG May08 Mar29 Feb23 Jan18   (anderson doug)BACON W 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by VEKOMA out of FIRE OF FREEDOM by STREET CRY (IRE))
5  MATINEE IDOL Aug22         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 3.00 23% 3.30    
  (by STAR PROGRAMMER out of PRISSY PRISCILLA by BELIEVE THE QUEEN)
6  WOODSON Aug17         (eurton peter)SAEZ LUIS 120 12.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of A P MINK by A.P. INDY)
7  VOULEZVOUS Sep01         (mcpeek ke)HERNANDEZ J 120 20.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of ENCHANTE by BLUEGRASS CAT)
8  UP COUNTRY Aug22 Jun27       (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 4.50 ★    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of A P LUCKY by LOOKIN AT LUCKY)
9  MONOPOLI Aug25         (brisset rodolp)MACHADO LUAN 120 12.00    
  (by CURLIN out of AMERICA'S STARLET by CONCORD POINT)
10  MY BOY ROCKET         (stall m)GRAHAM J 120 15.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of O' TOOLE by DISTORTED HUMOR)
11  BISOU Aug22 Oct27       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 120 20.00    
  (by CURLIN out of MIDNIGHT BISOU by MIDNIGHT LUTE)
12  CRISIS MANAGER Feb23 Jan04 Nov07 Sep28   (amoss thomas )ORTIZ JR 120 10.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of WILBURNMONEY by WILBURN)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.