Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Sunday - August 17, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (2/7/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/7/1)-(2/7/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/7/1)-(2/7/1)-(2/7/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/7/1)-(8/1/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/7/1)-(8/1/4)-(3/5/6) 27 $0.50 $13.50 
ELP-2   WIN (8/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/1/4)-(8/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (8/1/4)-(8/1/4)-(8/1/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (8/1/4)-(3/5/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (8/1/4)-(3/5/6)-(7/3/6/2) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
ELP-3   WIN (3/5/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/5/6)-(3/5/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/5/6)-(3/5/6)-(3/5/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/5/6)-(7/3/6/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/5/6)-(7/3/6/2)-(4/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
ELP-4   WIN (7/3/6/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/3/6/2)-(7/3/6/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/3/6/2)-(7/3/6/2)-(7/3/6/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/3/6/2)-(4/1) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (7/3/6/2)-(4/1)-(5/12/9/14/3) 40 $0.50 $120 
ELP-5   WIN (4/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/1)-(4/1/3) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (4/1)-(4/1/3)-(4/1/3) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (4/1)-(5/12/9/14/3) 10 $1.00 $10.00 
    PK3 (4/1)-(5/12/9/14/3)-(1/3/8/6) 40 $0.50 $20.00 
ELP-6   WIN (5/12/9/14/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/12/9/14/3)-(5/12/9/14/3/4) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    TRI (5/12/9/14/3)-(5/12/9/14/3/4)-(5/12/9/14/3/4) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
    DD (5/12/9/14/3)-(1/3/8/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (5/12/9/14/3)-(1/3/8/6)-(5/4/8/7) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
ELP-7   WIN (1/3/8/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/3/8/6)-(1/3/8/6/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (1/3/8/6)-(1/3/8/6/4)-(1/3/8/6/4) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (1/3/8/6)-(5/4/8/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/3/8/6)-(5/4/8/7)-(1/2/4/11/3) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
ELP-8   WIN (5/4/8/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/4/8/7)-(5/4/8/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/4/8/7)-(5/4/8/7)-(5/4/8/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/4/8/7)-(1/2/4/11/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
ELP-9   WIN (1/2/4/11/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/2/4/11/3)-(1/2/4/11/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/2/4/11/3)-(1/2/4/11/3)-(1/2/4/11/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   08/17/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($37.5K) 2 ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CAMDEN HILLS         (ortiz a)TORRES A 119 8.00 11% 8.00    
2  COMPRESSED Jul19 Jun19 May23     (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 1.60 42% 1.40    
SCR  DR FENN Jul19 Jun19       (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 3.50    
SCR  THUNDER MURPHY         (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 4.50    
5  RED SPEEDO Jul19 Jun19 May23 Apr07   (hancock jo)ANDERSON MCKENNA 119 6.00    
6  COSMIC COLLISSION         (cash norman)GUTIERREZ MARIO 119 15.00    
7  ELECTION NIGHT         (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 119 6.00 14% 6.10    
 
ELP-2   08/17/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($35K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MINK STOLE Jul04 May26 May11 Apr11 Mar21 (baker james)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 4.50 20% 4.00    
SCR  FEAR THE QUEEN Jul15 Jul01 Jun07 May20 May06 (randazzo ted)LOPEZ A 122 15.00    
SCR  ANIMAL FRIES Jul03 May09 Feb22 Jan23 Dec20 (newton troy)MORALES EDGAR 122 3.50    
4  INDESCRIPTABLE Aug04 Jul12 Feb23 Jan02 Jun28 (cobb carol)GUTIERREZ MARIO 122 6.00 5% 19.00    
5  STARLIT SOFI Jul21 Jun13 May17 Apr29 Mar26 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 122 10.00    
SCR  WHAT'S HER NUMBER Jun13 May09 Apr16 Feb17 Jan26 (fawkes david)BARBOSA CARLOS 122 3.00    
7  ST. ALBANS RAID Jul19 Jun07 May11 Mar16 Jan26 (shirer matt )BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 8.00    
8  LOIS' COURAGE Jul04 Apr26 Mar05 Oct28 Sep30 (grubbs jamie )JIMENEZ ALBIN 122 4.00 47% 1.10    
 
ELP-3   08/17/2025 5280ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($30K) Purse ($42.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JOHNSON Jul03 Jun21 Jun08 May17 Feb28 (jacobson d)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 5.00    
2  OVERSTATEMENT Aug02 Feb08 Jan17 Dec28 Dec01 (miller kenny)MORALES EDGAR 122 4.00    
3  NATIONAL ECLIPSE Jun21 May17 Apr17 Mar08 Jan18 (williamson b)GEROUX FLORENT 122 1.60 47% 1.10    
4  MO HOPE Jun07 May18 Apr10 Jan05 Nov22 (mcgee paul)HERNANDEZ J 122 4.50    
5  EVENING NEWS Jul14 May17 Apr26 Mar28 Feb06 (diodoro r)TORRES A 122 3.50 15% 5.80    
6  SCHIFTY'S HALOID Jun20 May17 Apr17 Mar29 Dec26 (diodoro rob)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-4   08/17/2025 5940ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($102K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FORT THOMAS Jun13 May18 Apr24 Nov03 Oct10 (arnold george)MORALES EDGAR 122 4.50    
2  ELEGANT TRIP Jun25 May16 Nov28 Oct18 Aug31 (arnold geor)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
3  KID CAIRO Apr26 Feb01 Jan05 Dec15 Jul06 (casse mar)TORRES A 122 4.00 25% 3.00    
4  AZOI Aug01 Jun27 Jun11 May07 Mar29 (bahena ismael)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 10.00    
5  BALTIMORE HEART Jul26 Jul04 May27 Mar18 Feb01 (williamson b)GEROUX FLORENT 122 12.00    
6  TICKLED QUIST Jul05 May18 Apr25 Mar21 Feb21 (cox h)TORRES A 118 2.50 9% 9.80    
7  WRITE OFF JERRY Jul19 Jun27 Mar04 Feb08 Dec20 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.00 44% 1.30    
 
ELP-5   08/17/2025 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($38.75K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FORTYSIXCOUNTS May02 Mar30 Mar02 Jan31 Jan11 (wittek karyn)MORALES EDGAR 122 8.00 14% 6.00    
2  GUANARE Jul06 May29 Apr16 Feb12 Jan03 (diodoro r)TORRES A 122 8.00    
3  M B'S MUNNING Jun21 May31 May17 Mar07 Aug28 (cook b)BEJARANO R 122 5.00 ★    
4  ESPIONAGE Jul04 Jun13 May25 Apr26 Apr06 (wittek karyn)ELLIOTT JANE 122 8.00 41% 1.40    
SCR  JACKMAN May01 Mar15 Feb17 Jan23 Dec13 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 122 3.50    
SCR  W W CANDY Jan15 Nov03 Sep12 Aug03 Jun30 (crichton ro)GUTIERREZ MARIO 122 2.00    
7  SWIFT AS I AM Jul17 Jun11 May18 Apr29 Feb15 (jacobson d)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 10.00    
8  CHRYSO ALOGO Jul13 Jul05 May31 May10 Apr09 (foster eric)TORRES A 122 10.00    
 
ELP-6   08/17/2025 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 2 ALL PT- 3:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SWAMP KING Jul21         (mott riley)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 10.00    
  (by VICE REGENT out of LA PIBA by LOOKIN AT LUCKY)
SCR  ROYAL CAUSEWAY         (stewart dall)GEROUX FLORENT 119 10.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of BAHAMA HALO by MORE THAN READY)
3  CHESTER GOOD         (thompson darrel)MEEKS MICAH 109 30.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ROGUEISH out of LUCRE by FIELD COMMISSION)
4  H Q WILSON         (o'neill doug)SHEEHY DANNY 119 15.00 ★    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of SOLASTA by GOLDENCENTS)
5  FULLEFFORT Jul21         (cox h)TORRES A 119 3.50 56% 0.80    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of CALLMETHESQUEEZE by AWESOME AGAIN)
6  APOLLO'S GLORY Jun28         (stephen ant)GUTIERREZ MARIO 119 15.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of TROPICAL WAVE by LEMON DROP KID)
7  SIR VINCENT Jul04 May23 Apr18     (hancock l)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 8.00    
  (by JIMMY CREED out of LADY TULA by BIG SURF)
8  MOUNTAIN HIGH         (colebrook ben)GRAHAM J 119 15.00    
  (by DANEHILL out of JUST A LOOK by LOOKIN AT LUCKY)
9  YOUR WILDEST DREAM         (casse norm)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CEFIS out of BONNEVILLE FLATS by FLAT OUT)
SCR  STRONG Aug04 Jun20 May23     (desormeaux k)ROCCO S 119 8.00    
  (by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY out of SWEET GOLD by GILDED TIME)
11  POINT BARROW Jul13         (murphy co)LEPAROUX R 119 20.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of OUTRAGEOUS MISS by BERNARDINI)
12  CEDERBERG         (brown chad)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 18% 4.60    
  (by ROSBERG out of IN FROM THE COLD by AMERICAN CHANCE)
SCR  MY WORLD         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.50    
  (by WORLD STAGE (IRE) out of KELLI MY GIRL by TUNERUP)
14  EPIC HORSEPOWER         (lynch a)JUAREZ NIK 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of SWEET CANDY DANCE by TWIRLING CANDY)
SCR  PERFECTIONACHIEVED         (hern)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 119 20.00    
  (by HONOR A. P. out of BOLD INTENT by SCAT DADDY)
SCR  WADO         (hancock jo)ANDERSON MCKENNA 119 30.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of CLAUDELLE by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
 
ELP-7   08/17/2025 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 2 F PT- 3:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NOROOMFORMISCHIEF         (ennis john)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 24% 3.10    
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of NO VACANCY by QUALITY ROAD)
2  CARDIFF REEF         (meah m)DOYLE SOPHIE 119 10.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of PRINCESS VIVIAN by UH OH BANGO)
3  LOVE DIVINE         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 3.50 24% 3.20    
  (by SANDPIT out of PREPPYLUV by PARADE OF STARS)
4  MISS MILKY WAY         (drury thomas)MONCADA IRVING 119 12.00 ★    
  (by ALTERNATION out of PANCAKE by CORINTHIAN)
5  DRAGON NAVY Jun18 Apr06       (colebrook ben)GRAHAM J 119 10.00    
  (by MIDSHIPMAN out of MS. DRAGONETTE by MR SPEAKER)
6  DAWN QUIXOTE         (casse mark)GEROUX FLORENT 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GREY DAWN II out of GOLDEN DAWN by NATIVE PROSPECTOR)
7  LIL TIPSY         (shirer matt )BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 12.00    
  (by VINO ROSSO out of NOT SWAYED by HONOR CODE)
8  CHAMPAGNE CANDICE Jul26         (von donn)ROCCO S 119 8.00 23% 3.40    
  (by SPUN TO RUN out of ELUSIVE CHAMPAGNE by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
SCR  LUCKY LOUISA         (schultz lindsay)JUAREZ NIK 119 20.00    
  (by AUTHENTIC out of R ANGEL KATELYN by HIGH COTTON)
SCR  DANCEWHENYOUCAN         (stewart d)LEPAROUX R 119 10.00    
  (by KNOWN AGENDA out of DANCE THEWAYYOUARE by MINESHAFT)
SCR  ANNIE'S ALLIE         (foster e)RODRIGUEZ A 119 20.00    
  (by TACITUS out of TUFF BUT FAIR by VIOLENCE)
12  LADY LAW         (calhoun willi)MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00    
  (by TIZ THE LAW out of LADY BELLAMY by BELLAMY ROAD)
 
ELP-8   08/17/2025 3630ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($104K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SECRET STATEMENT Jul20 Jun22 May30 May03 Jul22 (baker james)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 15.00    
2  TWIRL AROUND Jun29 May24 Apr26 Aug24 Jul06 (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 122 10.00    
3  HIDEKI Jun05 May01 Feb28 Jan30 Aug19 (walsh ryan )GUTIERREZ MARIO 122 12.00    
4  NIKI NINE DOORS Jul20 Jun29 Jun05 May01 Oct04 (davis chri)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.80 36% 1.80    
5  DALA Jun08 Apr16 Mar07     (harty eo)RODRIGUEZ A 122 2.00 41% 1.40    
6  BIRDIE ROSE Jul20 Jul05 Jun10 May02 Mar22 (salas marceli)JIMENEZ ALBIN 122 30.00    
7  CURRENT CLIMATE Mar20 Mar01 Feb12 Dec21 Nov14 (foster eric)TORRES A 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
8  JILL JITTERBUG Jun21 May23 Apr26 Mar20 Feb12 (walsh d)BEJARANO R 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  SULTRY LASS Jul23 Jul06 Jun13 May18 Feb07 (jacobson )CAMACHO JR 122 5.00    
 
ELP-9   08/17/2025 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SEMPER PRIMUS Jul06 May11       (divito j)RODRIGUEZ A 119 2.50 40% 1.50    
  (by IMPROBABLE out of INAUGURATE by EMPIRE MAKER)
2  STOMP Feb08         (moquett rona)TORRES A 119 8.00 17% 5.00    
  (by MITOLE out of HIGH HEELS by E DUBAI)
3  WHITE WHALE Jun06 Apr25 Mar09 Jan11 Dec01 (arnold george)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00 6% 16.10    
  (by HIGHTAIL out of ELUSIVE DIVA by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
4  ATLAL Feb01 Dec28 Oct26 Sep28   (mott william)GEROUX FLORENT 119 6.00 9% 9.50    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of ATHEER by MALIBU MOON)
SCR  MISCHIEVOUS INTENT Dec07 Nov01       (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 8.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of GUARANA by GHOSTZAPPER)
6  THE CHALK Aug01 Jun20 Nov17 Oct26 Jul28 (calhoun wi)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
  (by IMPROBABLE out of BEEN STUDYING HER by FAST ANNA)
SCR  DAZZLE A. P. Jul06 Feb27 Jan15 Dec08   (crichton ro)GUTIERREZ MARIO 119 15.00    
  (by HONOR A. P. out of DAZZLE by SLEWACIDE)
8  WOBBEGONG Jun27         (colebrook ben)GRAHAM J 119 30.00    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of AMAZE ME GRACE by EXPLODENT)
9  RIDGE OF FIRE         (mccarthy mi)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 12.00    
  (by FIRING LINE out of DELIGHTFUL RIDGE by COME SUMMER)
10  TROUBLE AHEAD         (meah m)DOYLE SOPHIE 124 12.00    
  (by HAVE FUN out of VAGUELY TROUBLED by WARD OFF TROUBLE)
11  DIVINE JUSTICE         (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00 7% 14.30    
  (by JUSTIFY out of RARITIES by CITY ZIP)
12  WOODSON         (eurton peter)BEJARANO R 119 15.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of A P MINK by A.P. INDY)
SCR  BARKER         (davis chri)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00    
  (by BLAME out of JENNIFER'S JEWEL by LITE THE FUSE)
SCR  TRE ITALIANI         (rivelli larr)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.00    
  (by FLATTER out of FINGERPRINT by COMPETITIVE EDGE)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.