Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Monday - July 14, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (7/8/6/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/8/6/4)-(7/8/6/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/8/6/4)-(7/8/6/4)-(7/8/6/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/8/6/4)-(8/7/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/8/6/4)-(8/7/6)-(3/7/2) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
ELP-2   WIN (8/7/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/7/6)-(8/7/6/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (8/7/6)-(8/7/6/1)-(8/7/6/1) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (8/7/6)-(3/7/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (8/7/6)-(3/7/2)-(8/7/6) 27 $0.50 $13.50 
ELP-3   WIN (3/7/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/7/2)-(3/7/1/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (3/7/2)-(3/7/1/2)-(3/7/1/2) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (3/7/2)-(8/7/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/7/2)-(8/7/6)-(6/13/5/10) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
ELP-4   WIN (8/7/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/7/6)-(8/7/5/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (8/7/6)-(8/7/5/6)-(8/7/5/6) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (8/7/6)-(6/13/5/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/7/6)-(6/13/5/10)-(1/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
ELP-5   WIN (6/13/5/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/13/5/10)-(6/13/12/5/10) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (6/13/5/10)-(6/13/12/5/10)-(6/13/12/5/10) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (6/13/5/10)-(1/5) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (6/13/5/10)-(1/5)-(7/2/8/5/1) 40 $0.50 $40.00 
ELP-6   WIN (1/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/5)-(1/3/5) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (1/5)-(1/3/5)-(1/3/5) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (1/5)-(7/2/8/5/1) 10 $1.00 $10.00 
    PK3 (1/5)-(7/2/8/5/1)-(6/8/2/3) 40 $0.50 $20.00 
ELP-7   WIN (7/2/8/5/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/2/8/5/1)-(7/2/8/5/9/1) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    TRI (7/2/8/5/1)-(7/2/8/5/9/1)-(7/2/8/5/9/1) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
    DD (7/2/8/5/1)-(6/8/2/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (7/2/8/5/1)-(6/8/2/3)-(13/8/12/10/9) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
ELP-8   WIN (6/8/2/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/8/2/3)-(6/8/2/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/8/2/3)-(6/8/2/3)-(6/8/2/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/8/2/3)-(13/8/12/10/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
ELP-9   WIN (13/8/12/10/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (13/8/12/10/9)-(13/8/12/10/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (13/8/12/10/9)-(13/8/12/10/9)-(13/8/12/10/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   07/14/2025 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($45K) 3UP ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SPIRIT RAGS Jun22 Jun07 Mar06 Feb22 Feb01 (salas marceli)MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00    
2  GUARDIAN Jun25 May30 Nov01     (hiles rick)GUTIERREZ MARIO 120 8.00    
3  SPEED INSTITUTE Jun26 May27 Apr23 Apr10 Mar07 (salas marcelin)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 10.00    
4  IRON SHARPENS IRON Jul06 May29 May02 Apr19 Mar14 (mcpeek g)GRAHAM J 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  GOOD BALI May30 Apr19 Mar23 Mar02 Feb02 (arnold georg)MONCADA IRVING 118 5.00    
6  ANTHONIAN Jun28 Jun08 Mar01 Jan25 Nov29 (morse l)LANERIE J 123 4.00 5% 19.00    
7  BERMUDA BLITZ Jun11 May08 Mar14 Feb24 Feb01 (hernande)RODRIGUEZ A 118 3.50 52% 0.90    
8  MORUNNING Jun12 May16 Jan19 Jan04 Nov24 (davis chri)HERNANDEZ J 123 3.00 19% 4.20    
 
ELP-2   07/14/2025 4290ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 2 F PT- 1:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GAGA'S GIRL         (hamm timoth)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 15.00 ★    
  (by KNICKS GO out of FROZAY ALL DAY by FROSTED (GB))
SCR  FLAMING MAMA Jun21 May22       (sands shane)BEJARANO R 119 30.00    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of MONEY FOR MAMA by STRONG MANDATE)
3  INTEGRITY         (walsh brendan)MORALES EDGAR 119 5.00    
  (by WILD AGAIN out of WOLF TRAIL by SUPERBITY)
4  KENZ         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 5.00    
  (by MCKINZIE out of MO KNOWS by UNCLE MO)
SCR  COLLECTIVE BEAUTY         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.00    
  (by COLLECTED out of BEAUTICIAN by DEHERE)
6  HYLLA Jun11         (mott riley)TORRES A 119 15.00 6% 15.30    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of MYAWAYA by WICKED STRONG)
7  SEARCH PARTY         (casse mar)TORRES A 119 4.50 11% 8.10    
  (by SEEKING THE GOLD out of DEVIOUS CHARM by INTO MISCHIEF)
8  GLORY ME         (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.00 47% 1.10    
  (by RAHY out of DIABLERIE by DEPUTY MINISTER)
9  HOT AND DANGEROUS         (lynch brian)GUTIERREZ MARIO 119 5.00    
  (by BLAME out of WINDFALL PROFIT by MALIBU MOON)
 
ELP-3   07/14/2025 5280ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($16K) Purse ($35K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STORM BAY Jun04 May08 Mar28 Feb27 Feb13 (wismer gl)CAMACHO JR 123 5.00 ★    
2  STREET PAINTER Jun04 May01 Apr24 Mar15 Feb14 (shorter aaro)TORRES A 123 12.00 5% 19.00    
3  RED ROSE ROCKIN Jun11 May19 May05 Mar28   (medina rober)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 3.00 52% 0.90    
SCR  JUNGLE CAT Jun07 May13 Apr20 Mar08 Dec18 (mcvickers lama)DOYLE SOPHIE 123 10.00    
5  JACKIE'S LOVE Jun21 May08 Aug21 May09 Apr11 (butcher james)GOMEZ AGUSTIN 123 4.50    
6  TRAVAILLE Jun04 Mar07 Aug18 Jul14 Jun08 (catalano wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 8.00    
7  MARIPOSA DE PISTA Apr17 Mar29 Mar13 Feb21 Jan17 (foster eric)BARBOSA CARLOS 118 3.50 26% 2.90    
8  THREE COINS Apr06 Mar15 Feb12 Jan29 Mar16 (hancock john )MORALES EDGAR 123 5.00    
 
ELP-4   07/14/2025 5280ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($30K) Purse ($42.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MUGATU Jun26 Jun13 May10 Apr10 Jan23 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 123 12.00    
SCR  NATIONAL ECLIPSE Jun21 May17 Apr17 Mar08 Jan18 (williamson b)GEROUX FLORENT 123 2.50    
3  SOLID LEFT Jun05 May09 Apr12 Feb27 Jan26 (santamaria carlo)JUAREZ NIK 118 8.00    
4  EVENING NEWS May17 Apr26 Mar28 Feb06 Jan17 (diodoro rob)CONCEPCION AXEL 123 6.00    
5  EXPLOSIVELY Jun15 May26 Apr30 Mar27 Mar01 (moger jr)BEJARANO R 123 4.50 ★    
6  WHERE'S RANDY Jun20 May03 Apr06 Mar22 Mar01 (morse l)LANERIE J 123 15.00 5% 19.00    
7  INTERLOCK EMPIRE Jun20 Apr24 Mar22 Feb07 Jan24 (diodoro r)TORRES A 123 4.00 23% 3.40    
8  AIRBORNE ELITE Jun20 Jun04 May01 Feb16 Jan26 (rice linda)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 3.50 47% 1.10    
 
ELP-5   07/14/2025 5280ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($40K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DANCING EYES May16 Mar22 Feb24     (schultz lindsay)JUAREZ NIK 118 12.00    
2  RISKY WAVE Jun03 Nov08 Oct20     (arnold geor)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 6.00    
3  AHAMO Apr18 Feb23 Jan10 Nov21   (calhoun wi)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00    
SCR  THEATRIX Jun18 May29 Apr18 Feb16 Dec26 (arnold ge)TORRES A 118 8.00    
5  DAWN AFTER DAWN Jun14 Nov30 Oct10 Sep15 Aug11 (walsh brendan)MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
6  OAK ALLEY May25 Apr17 Mar09     (walsh brendan )MACHADO LUAN 118 3.00 43% 1.30    
7  BIG AIR Jun18 May10 Apr24 Sep08 Jul22 (maker michae)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.00    
8  REIGN CHAMPAGNE Jun04 May11 Nov06 Sep19 Aug31 (scherer m)LEPAROUX R 118 20.00    
SCR  SUPER MAXIMA Jun25 May03 Apr12 Feb23 Nov30 (seglin lu)BEALMEAR C 118 30.00    
10  DARK THIRTY (IRE) Jun26 Jun06 Sep26     (mcpeek g)GRAHAM J 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
11  WARM DAYS Jun07 May01 Feb02 Dec01   (johnston lane )SAEZ GABRIEL 118 30.00    
12  LES IS BEST Jul03 Jun12 Apr17 Mar22 Jan23 (foster eric)LANERIE J 118 6.00 ★    
13  FASCINATOR Jun03 Apr24 Mar26 Feb22 Jan26 (moger jr)BEJARANO R 124 5.00 30% 2.30    
 
ELP-6   07/14/2025 4290ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($40K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  UNCASHED Jun19 Jun05 May18 Apr25 Mar22 (rivelli )RODRIGUEZ A 124 2.00 39% 1.60    
SCR  COWAN Jun18 May25 Apr04 Apr27 Mar03 (jacobson )CAMACHO JR 122 5.00    
3  TURN UP THE TREES Jun18 May16 May06 Dec27 Dec06 (jacobson dav)TORRES A 122 3.00 ★    
SCR  BARKSDALE Jun26 Oct18 Sep18 Aug02 Jul04 (walden wil)HERNANDEZ J 122 6.00    
5  TRUST DADDY Jun19 May01 Mar09 Feb22 Jan11 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 20.00 10% 9.00    
SCR  BALSA Jun27 Jun07 Mar28 Feb22 Nov16 (shorter aar)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 20.00    
7  MIACOMET Jun19 May29 May16 Mar08 Jan31 (esquivel gu)GUTIERREZ MARIO 122 15.00    
SCR  GET HER NUMBER Jun06 May03 Apr24 Apr04 Sep02 (miller peter)GEROUX FLORENT 122 12.00    
9  PAYNE Jun06 May11 Apr12 Apr04 Mar22 (foster er)TORRES A 122 6.00    
 
ELP-7   07/14/2025 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HI'IAKA Jul05 Jun18 Jun03 May11 Mar21 (salas felipe)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of HUA MULAN by MALIBU MOON)
2  LUCY MCGEE Jun25 Jun07 May15 Jul22 Jun26 (lovell miche)TORRES A 119 3.00 22% 3.60    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of TIZANILLUSION by TIZWAY)
SCR  STORMY PARADISE Jun07 May19 May05 Mar28 Mar06 (moger jr)BEJARANO R 119 30.00    
  (by GET STORMY out of AVIE'S PARADISE by TASTE OF PARADISE)
4  MOSCATO BABE         (lynch brian)GUTIERREZ MARIO 119 20.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of SWEET PARANG by FIRST DEFENCE)
5  MAGICAL DAY Jun05 Apr24 Dec29 Nov17   (walsh bre)TORRES A 119 4.00 10% 9.50    
  (by DISTORTED HUMOR out of SEA OF BLUE by MIDSHIPMAN)
6  ADULARE Jun25         (grubbs ja)LEPAROUX R 119 25.00    
  (by MCKINZIE out of SIP SIP by SIPHON (BRZ))
7  DEBT FREE May15 Apr07 Mar01     (devaux cheri)GEROUX FLORENT 119 5.00 28% 2.50    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of BREAK EVEN by COUNTRY DAY)
8  CUT TO THE CHASE         (ward wes)RODRIGUEZ A 119 4.00 10% 8.80    
  (by CONCORDE'S TUNE out of THIRD DOUBLE by NODOUBLE)
9  SHE'Z THE LAW Jun08 May18 Oct05 Aug24 Jul27 (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 124 4.50 ★    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of BACK FLIP by SUPER SAVER)
10  TYPHOON TAFFY         (danner kels)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 25.00    
  (by AM ALL CHARGED UP out of TRAFFIC DRONE by JUDGE POWER)
11  DASHIN' DIVA Jun08 May02       (briley lonnie)LANERIE J 119 15.00    
  (by CARACARO out of GIANTS DIVA by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
12  BRAVE SAMANTHA Jun12 May19 Apr11 Mar22 Oct18 (medina rober)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 30.00    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of LITTLE HIDDEN GEM by BODEMEISTER)
 
ELP-8   07/14/2025 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($102K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  STONEHENGE Jun21 Mar27       (davis chri)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00    
2  REGAL REY Jun19 Jun06 May01 Apr12 Mar26 (antonuik)RODRIGUEZ A 122 8.00 12% 7.00    
3  RIVER RIDGE Jun25 May24 May09 Apr24 Mar12 (johnston lane )SAEZ GABRIEL 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  GOLDENTOWN May10 Mar27 Mar01 Feb15 Jan18 (jones jeff )CONCEPCION AXEL 122 4.00    
5  AJAAYB Jun25 Jun08 May17 Feb01 Jan04 (esquivel gu)GUTIERREZ MARIO 122 8.00    
6  MIRACLE WORKER May29 Mar21 Feb16 Jan23 Dec21 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 122 3.00 28% 2.60    
7  BRODY Jun27 Jun08 May11 Apr20 Sep19 (pompell robert)GRAHAM J 122 30.00    
8  BOURBON'S FAULT Jun15 May17 Apr18 Mar09 Feb17 (shorter aaro)TORRES A 122 3.50 28% 2.60    
9  VIKING Jan24 Dec21 Nov22     (morse l)LANERIE J 122 6.00    
 
ELP-9   07/14/2025 5280ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($40K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAGNIFICENT RAGS Nov14 Oct31 Sep15 Aug03 Jun21 (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 124 10.00    
2  FROSTY BEER Jan16 Oct27 Oct18     (matejka pavel)MACHADO LUAN 118 12.00    
SCR  WINDTALKER May29 Dec22 Aug24     (wojczynski justin)MURGIA A 118 20.00    
4  STEEL VENOM May24         (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00    
5  EDIFICE Jun06 Sep28       (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 4.00    
6  SOUTHERN BULLET Jun15 May08       (begley greg)DOYLE SOPHIE 118 15.00    
7  TOM CAT TUESDAY Jun07 May16 Apr06 Feb14 Jan17 (maker j)LANERIE J 118 6.00    
8  HAMLET         (mott riley)TORRES A 118 5.00 19% 4.20    
9  BIG ROG Jun22 May30 Apr26     (king l)MORALES EDGAR 118 25.00 5% 19.00    
10  WHERE Y'AT Jun07 May17 Apr26 Mar13   (tomlinson m)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 10.00 13% 6.90    
SCR  BRAVITAS Jun23 Jun07       (mckeever andrew)GRAHAM J 118 6.00    
12  MULA Jun07 May08 Feb16 Feb02 Dec29 (santamaria car)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 10.00 15% 5.80    
13  KULAPAT Jun06 May04 Mar22 Feb23 Jan25 (mott william)TORRES A 118 2.00 20% 4.00    
SCR  SUMMER VIBES Jun14 Apr19 Mar15 Feb08   (walsh brendan)MORALES EDGAR 118 3.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.