Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Thursday - April 17, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
AQU-1   WIN (4/3/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/3/2)-(4/3/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/3/2)-(4/3/2)-(4/3/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/3/2)-(1/2/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/3/2)-(1/2/5)-(3/6/4) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
AQU-2   WIN (1/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/2/5)-(1/2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/2/5)-(1/2/5)-(1/2/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/2/5)-(3/6/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/2/5)-(3/6/4)-(2/1/6) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
AQU-3   WIN (3/6/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/6/4)-(3/6/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/6/4)-(3/6/4)-(3/6/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/6/4)-(2/1/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/6/4)-(2/1/6)-(3/2/4) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
AQU-4   WIN (2/1/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/1/6)-(2/1/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/1/6)-(2/1/6)-(2/1/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/1/6)-(3/2/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/1/6)-(3/2/4)-(5/6/2) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
AQU-5   WIN (3/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/2/4)-(3/2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/2/4)-(3/2/4)-(3/2/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/2/4)-(5/6/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/2/4)-(5/6/2)-(1/5/6) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
AQU-6   WIN (5/6/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/6/2)-(5/6/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/6/2)-(5/6/2)-(5/6/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/6/2)-(1/5/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/6/2)-(1/5/6)-(6/7/3/9/1) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
AQU-7   WIN (1/5/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/5/6)-(1/5/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/5/6)-(1/5/6)-(1/5/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/5/6)-(6/7/3/9/1) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
AQU-8   WIN (6/7/3/9/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/7/3/9/1)-(6/7/3/9/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/7/3/9/1)-(6/7/3/9/1)-(6/7/3/9/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   04/17/2025 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($32K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AERIALIST Apr06 Dec13 Nov29     (reynolds patric)CANCEL ERIC 118 15.00    
2  EXOTIC CAT Mar07 Feb13 Jan24 Jan03 Dec13 (pregman joh)GONZALEZ MELVIS 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
3  KYLE'S MOM Apr06         (englehart jer)OLVER MADISON 118 2.00 30% 2.40    
4  LOOKING FOR GINNY Mar28 Mar07 Feb13 Jan24 Dec15 (potts wayne)DAVIS DYLAN 126 1.80 35% 1.90    
SCR  SWEET LILAC Mar29 Mar08 Jan25 Jan01   (gidding)ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 113 5.00    
6  LUMENIQUE Feb28 Feb13 Apr19 Mar10 Feb11 (dutrow richar)FRANCO MANUEL 126 2.50    
 
AQU-2   04/17/2025 5940ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($80K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DONOR ADVISED Mar16         (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 118 0.40 71% 0.40    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of TOY MOON by MALIBU MOON)
2  LUCKFORYOU Mar22 Feb27 Jan23 Dec13 Aug22 (romero jes)RIVERA R 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by LOOKIN AT LUCKY out of SCAT MAGGIE by SCAT DADDY)
3  THAT'S FUNNY Mar22 Feb15 Jan26     (sacco gregor)CASTELLANO J 118 8.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of THAT'S SMART by SMART STRIKE)
4  EASILY SIDETRACKED Mar08 Jan17 Dec07 Nov15   (terranova john )CANCEL ERIC 118 30.00    
  (by MCKINZIE out of MONTANA NATIVE by YES IT'S TRUE)
5  STAND THE RAIN Mar22 Jan23 Dec27     (clement christo)DAVIS DYLAN 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of SUPER SURPRISE by GIANT SURPRISE)
6  SHIRL'S DELIGHT Mar23 Feb21 Jan31 May09 Apr04 (martin carlos )LEZCANO JOSE 126 3.00    
  (by TONALIST out of DECRYPT by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
 
AQU-3   04/17/2025 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($44K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BRODERICK Mar16 Feb21 Jan26 Jan10 Nov07 (reynold)ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 113 20.00    
SCR  HERO'S MEDAL Mar22 May04 Apr06 Mar02 Feb09 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 125 1.00    
3  SORORITY PRANK Jan26 Dec28 Nov30 Nov09 Oct19 (englehart chris)DAVIS DYLAN 125 4.00 32% 2.10    
4  BREWING Apr05 Feb23 Dec04 Nov17 Nov04 (bernar)MARAGH RAMSAY 125 15.00 5% 19.00    
5  HOULTON Mar15 Feb22 Jan24 Dec28 Nov29 (morley thomas)CARMOUCHE K 125 1.80    
6  INCANTATION Jan17 Jan03 Nov11 Oct21 Oct02 (bond harold )CASTELLANO J 125 8.00 31% 2.20    
 
AQU-4   04/17/2025 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($44K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1A  BREW PUB Apr10 Mar09 Feb09 Dec13 Nov22 (kantarma)GONZALEZ SILVESTRE 123 3.50 17% 4.80    
SCR  RETURN THE RING Mar09 Feb02 Mar01 Feb04 Jan04 (kantarmaci i)HARKIE K 121 3.50    
2  NEUSCHWANSTEIN Mar21 Feb13 Jan26 Jan02 Nov24 (cox h)FRANCO MANUEL 123 2.00 30% 2.30    
SCR  WINE RESPONSIBLY Feb14 Jan18 Dec29 Dec14 Nov10 (bhigr)HERNANDEZ OMAR 121 30.00    
4  TETSU Apr10 Feb21 Apr19 Mar30 Feb19 (dutrow richa)CASTELLANO J 121 3.00    
5  ABADIN Mar22 Feb21 Jan26 Jan04 Dec06 (atras r)ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 118 4.50    
6  J J'S JOKER Apr06 Mar02 Feb02 Jan24 Jan17 (potts wayne)DAVIS DYLAN 121 6.00 13% 6.40    
7  HONORARY DEGREE Mar29 Mar02 Feb14 Jan30 Jan19 (diprima gregor)CEDENO CAROL 121 8.00    
 
AQU-5   04/17/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($32K) Purse ($54K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  ACOUSTIC AVE Mar14 Feb14 Jan16 Dec15 Nov30 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 121 3.50    
2  COLD AS HELL Mar07 Jan30 Jan19 Dec14 Nov23 (potts w)ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 116 6.00 10% 8.60    
3  MARIACHI Nov09 Aug23 Jul27 Jun07 Nov24 (kimmel c)CARMOUCHE K 121 2.00 65% 0.50    
4  DANGEROUS RIDE Jan30 Jan19 Dec14 Sep27 Aug28 (goberdhan chan)CHANDRA PREM 111 15.00 5% 19.00    
5  SPUN AND WON Mar09 Feb21 Jan18 Jul21 May09 (dutrow)MARAGH RAMSAY 123 3.00    
SCR  M B'S MUNNING Mar07 Aug28 Aug10 Jul05 May20 (englehart chri)LUZZI J 121 12.00    
7  GUN IT Apr05 Mar22 Mar07 Feb08 Dec29 (barrera oscar)FRANCO MANUEL 123 4.50    
 
AQU-6   04/17/2025 5940ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($44K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  HERMOSO HOMBRE Mar19 Mar10 Feb10 Jan28 Dec31 (abrams jack)GONZALEZ MELVIS 116 15.00    
2  BOSSMAKINBOSSMOVES Apr06 Mar09 Jan23 Jan16 Nov08 (samsu)HERNANDEZ OMAR 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
3  LOST IN ROME Apr04 Mar14 Feb23 Jan24 Oct13 (potts wayne)DAVIS DYLAN 121 8.00    
SCR  COMMANDPERFORMANCE Apr06 Mar08 Feb15 Jan19 Dec15 (barrera osca)HARKIE K 123 20.00    
5  MARGIN OF AIR Mar07 Dec12 Nov15 Oct18 Sep21 (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 121 1.60 42% 1.40    
6  BOLD ENDEAVOR Mar29 Feb23 Jan23 Jan03 Nov08 (kantarmaci il)FRANCO MANUEL 123 1.00 33% 2.10    
SCR  LIFE AND LIGHT Mar29 Jan30 Jan16 Dec13 Nov30 (pringle)ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 116 15.00    
8  WILD BANKER Apr05 Mar08 Feb15 Feb01 Jan01 (metivier)VILLA FAVINHO 121 30.00    
 
AQU-7   04/17/2025 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($84K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  REASONED ANALYSIS Mar09 Jun08 Apr06 Feb25 Dec08 (brown c)DAVIS DYLAN 121 2.00 44% 1.30    
1A  LEADING CONTENDER Jun07 Apr28 Mar01 Feb03 Dec30 (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 121 2.00 ★    
SCR  BIG BOYS ANSWER Mar26 Feb12 Jan07 Nov25 Nov13 (truehart jenni)AGUILAR JEAN 123 10.00    
3  IGNITE THE LIGHT Mar16 Feb15 Jan01 Dec13 Aug15 (dutrow richard)LUZZI J 123 4.50    
4  REDDINGTON Mar14 Feb08 Jan12 Dec06 Nov09 (rodriguez gu)CASTELLANO J 121 8.00    
5  TREATY OBLIGATION Feb08 Jan12 Dec07 Oct19 Aug24 (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 123 2.50 34% 2.00    
6  DRUM ROLL PLEASE Nov22 Sep25 Jan06 Dec02 Oct06 (summers chad)DAVIS KATIE 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
7  MAGNOLIA MIDNIGHT Mar14 Mar07 Jan24 Dec13 Nov23 (kantarma)GONZALEZ SILVESTRE 121 4.00    
 
AQU-8   04/17/2025 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($36K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GORZO Mar28 Feb08       (duggan p)CEDENO CAROL 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  TIP OF THE BOOT Mar16 Jan26 Aug23 Jul21 Jul07 (henry nevill)HARKIE K 126 50.00    
3  MAGNI Mar23 Feb22 Jan04 Nov17 Oct18 (friedman mitc)SILVERA RUBEN 118 4.50 9% 10.30    
4  UNCLE BARRIE Mar28 Jan05 Dec07 Nov17 Oct18 (metivier)VILLA FAVINHO 118 30.00    
SCR  FINES CREEK Mar08 Feb23 Jan26 Jan04 Nov23 (ryerson t)CANCEL ERIC 118 12.00    
6  KING OF THE CASTLE Mar22 Mar02 Feb01     (cox h)FRANCO MANUEL 118 0.80 49% 1.00    
7  BIG EGO Mar21 Feb28 Feb02 Dec15 Nov22 (rodrigu)ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 121 8.00 16% 5.40    
8  VESUVIO Nov27 Nov06 Oct23 Oct08 Aug14 (ibrah)HERNANDEZ OMAR 118 12.00    
9  BREAK THE FALL Feb28 Jan24 Jan02 May11 Apr04 (de hor)RIVERA R 126 10.00 5% 19.00    
10  ARK ROYAL Mar16         (hennig)MARAGH RAMSAY 118 30.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.