Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Thistledown
Wednesday - August 28, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TDN-1   WIN (8/4/7/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/4/7/2)-(8/4/7/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/4/7/2)-(8/4/7/2)-(8/4/7/2) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
    DD (8/4/7/2)-(6/7/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/4/7/2)-(6/7/2)-(4/2/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
TDN-2   WIN (6/7/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/7/2)-(6/7/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/7/2)-(6/7/2)-(6/7/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    DD (6/7/2)-(4/2/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/7/2)-(4/2/1)-(7/3/2/4) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
TDN-3   WIN (4/2/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/2/1)-(4/2/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/2/1)-(4/2/1)-(4/2/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    DD (4/2/1)-(7/3/2/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/2/1)-(7/3/2/4)-(1/4/7/6) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
TDN-4   WIN (7/3/2/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/3/2/4)-(7/3/2/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/3/2/4)-(7/3/2/4)-(7/3/2/4) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
    DD (7/3/2/4)-(1/4/7/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (7/3/2/4)-(1/4/7/6)-(2/6/4/8) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
TDN-5   WIN (1/4/7/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/4/7/6)-(1/4/7/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/4/7/6)-(1/4/7/6)-(1/4/7/6) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
    DD (1/4/7/6)-(2/6/4/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/4/7/6)-(2/6/4/8)-(6/2/3) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
TDN-6   WIN (2/6/4/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/6/4/8)-(2/6/4/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/6/4/8)-(2/6/4/8)-(2/6/4/8) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
    DD (2/6/4/8)-(6/2/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/6/4/8)-(6/2/3)-(1/2/4) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
TDN-7   WIN (6/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/2/3)-(6/2/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/2/3)-(6/2/3)-(6/2/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    DD (6/2/3)-(1/2/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
TDN-8   WIN (1/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/2/4)-(1/2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/2/4)-(1/2/4)-(1/2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TDN-1   08/28/2024 3960ft DIRT RC5 MUDDY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($33.9K) 3UP ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SLIPOFFTHEARIATS Aug07         (szczepanski emil)BAEZ M 119 12.00    
  (by QUICK CHANGE out of HIGH HEELED DIVA by PLEASANTLY PERFECT)
2  STRIKE PLATE Aug19 Aug07       (langley joshua)BOWEN ROCCO 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ITSTHESAMEOLDSONG out of ADDED DELIGHT by NORTHERN AFLEET)
3  BOLD BUCKEYE         (poole m)BRACHO A 123 3.50    
  (by BOLD TRUTH out of LADY BUCKEYE by QUIET AMERICAN)
4  FORMYBOYS Jul29 Jun17 May28 May07 Apr08 (radosevich jef)DIAZ I 123 2.50 8% 11.20    
  (by TAPIDOR out of NIPPY'S VENTURE by MAUK FOUR)
5  SKUNK APE Aug19 Aug07 Jul29 Jul01 Jun12 (loudin-smith lori)DIAZ R 119 20.00    
  (by COWTOWN CAT out of QUEEN YELLENA by TOCCET)
6  HURRYCANE DON May10         (bookman donald)HOUGHTON D 123 6.00    
  (by DARK KESTREL out of WILD ISLAND STORM by WILD HORSES)
7  HIDDEN HEART         (skerrett j)HERNANDEZ ALVARO 123 10.00 6% 16.20    
  (by ANIMO DE VALEROSO out of PRECOCIOUS by EXPLOIT)
8  RIVER BYE Aug07         (puhl kim)TOLEDO S 119 1.80 59% 0.70    
  (by RIVERS RUN DEEP out of STORM ON BYE by WOKE UP DREAMIN)
 
TDN-2   08/28/2024 3960ft DIRT RC5 MUDDY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($33.9K) 2 ALL PT- 1:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  KICKSTART         (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 118 2.50    
  (by PAYNTER out of SPEAK NO EVIL by HEAR NO EVIL)
2  FULL SPECTRUM Aug10 Jul08       (jackson james)SIMPSON JASON 118 8.00 6% 16.70    
  (by CROSS TRAFFIC out of STREET SUCCESS by STREET CRY (IRE))
3  TAKE DICTATION Aug10         (flores israel)PEREZ A 118 15.00    
  (by TALE OF VERVE out of FOLLOW BOURBON by NOT BOURBON)
4  ED'S REWARD Jul23 May29       (hamm timothy)BOWEN ROCCO 118 3.50    
  (by IMPROBABLE out of LEONA'S REWARD by PARENTS' REWARD)
5  MOR STORMY Aug10         (cline c)AVILES YAN 118 12.00    
  (by MOR SPIRIT out of STORMY JUSTICE by REGAL RANSOM)
6  SUPERWOLF Aug10         (go)SALAZAR FERNANDO 118 2.00 56% 0.80    
  (by INSTAGRAND out of SUNSHINEANDSILENCE by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
7  FOURDATESFORHOCO         (sweeting craig)NEGRON LUIS 118 4.50 14% 6.20    
  (by TALE OF EKATI out of PREACHINTOTHECHOIR by UNUSUAL HEAT)
 
TDN-3   08/28/2024 3630ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($17.9K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HARSH TRUTH Aug13 Jul18 Jun27 May28 May07 (skerrett jeffrey)PEREZ A 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
2  A PRAYER FOR KIDS Jul23 Jul04 Jun18 Jun08 May15 (rettele ri)HERNANDEZ ALVARO 119 1.80 23% 3.40    
SCR  ORLEANS STORM Aug13 Jul16 Jun19 May28 May21 (gonzalez don)HALDAR J 119 12.00    
4  AFLEET O ME Aug13 Jul16 Jun05 May09 Sep28 (flores christ)BARBARAN ERIK 119 2.50 44% 1.30    
5  GOOD MUSIC Aug13 Jul16 May30 May09 Mar06 (rone mike)HOUGHTON D 119 3.00    
6  TAMMY'S TOY Aug13 Jul16 Jun27 May22 May01 (brown gl)FERNANDEZ R 119 4.50    
 
TDN-4   08/28/2024 3630ft DIRT RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($33.9K) 2 F PT- 2:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BELLE BOTTOMS Aug07         (go)SALAZAR FERNANDO 118 8.00    
  (by TAPITURE out of BELLAMY BROOKE by BELLAMY ROAD)
2  ILLUMINATE (IRE)         (hamm timothy)AVILES YAN 118 15.00 20% 4.00    
  (by TOM'S D'ETAT out of BLAZING BLING by TOO MUCH BLING)
3  COMPLEXITY GIRL Aug07 Jul22       (rivera nestor)DIAZ I 118 2.50 21% 3.70    
  (by COMPLEXITY out of ARTISTIC LICENSE by HEART OF THE STORM)
4  FLASHY N Aug10 Jul22 Jul04     (rivera nestor)FELICIANO R 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by PROMISES FULFILLED out of FLASHY G by NOTIONAL)
5  ANOTHERWINNER Aug14         (waltz brian)BRACHO A 118 12.00    
  (by CONGRATS out of RICHMOND SPIDER by UNION RAGS)
6  SIOFRA Aug07 Jul22 Jun17     (wolochuk davi)CEDILLO MAURO 118 4.00    
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of PRETTY MUCH MINE by HALF OURS)
7  SECRET VALENTINE Jun26 Jun15       (hamm timothy)BOWEN ROCCO 118 2.00 36% 1.80    
  (by GLOBAL CAMPAIGN out of BETROTHED by INTO MISCHIEF)
8  MARABELLA Aug14         (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 118 6.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of JUSTALITTLESMOKE by SMOKE GLACKEN)
 
TDN-5   08/28/2024 3960ft DIRT RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($33.9K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RUN PANCITA         (morales saul )BARBARAN ERIK 119 6.00 25% 2.90    
  (by WILLIAM'S KITTEN out of DAYLIGHT KATY by UNUSUAL HEAT)
2  MOONSHINE JOE Jun20         (radosevich )CESPEDES JHORMA 114 15.00    
  (by GLOBAL POWER out of MOONSHINE PROMISE by WILL HE SHINE)
3  INDY'S HOPE Aug07         (vazquez ivan)HALDAR J 119 5.00    
  (by INDY WIND out of WITHALITTLEHOPE by HOLD ME BACK)
4  SWAYBACK MOBIL Aug07 Jul22 Jul01 Jun12 May29 (vlaun manuel)PEREZ A 119 3.50 25% 2.90    
  (by MOBIL out of RIBBONS AND ROSES by BIONDETTI)
5  VECCHI Aug07 Jul01 Oct28 Oct11 Sep25 (radosevich je)BRACHO A 119 4.00    
  (by VERTIFORMER out of BLUE AS THE NILE by SPUNKY RASCAL)
6  COLORFUL LAD Jul31 Jul15 Apr22 Jun06   (zielinski ric)CEDILLO MAURO 123 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by SENOR AMIGO out of REAL DISTINCTIVE by WITH DISTINCTION)
7  FORT GRANDE         (szczepanski e)TOLEDO S 119 10.00 15% 5.80    
  (by FORT LARNED out of RAIN FOREST by EXCHANGE RATE)
8  BUMPKIN Aug07 Jul22 Jul01 May29 May21 (meyers shane)FELICIANO R 119 2.00    
  (by ITSTHESAMEOLDSONG out of BUMP BUMP by ANY GIVEN SATURDAY)
 
TDN-6   08/28/2024 3960ft DIRT RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($33.9K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROLLIN FREEDOM Aug10 Jul23 Jul02     (zielinski ric)CEDILLO MAURO 119 2.00    
  (by CROSS TRAFFIC out of FLIGHT ELEVEN by MIDAS EYES)
2  OLYMPIC WINGS Mar20 Feb28 Feb14 Jan30 Jan15 (zielinski ri)HALDAR J 119 3.00 38% 1.60    
  (by MOHAYMEN out of OLYMPIC SMOKE by SMOKE GLACKEN)
3  JUSTWORTHASHOT Aug10 Jul23 Feb28     (schuster robin)PEREZ A 119 12.00    
  (by BOLD WARRIOR out of ESTHERS BALL by PARTY MANNERS)
4  BEAUTIFUL CHARADE Aug10 Jul02 Jun17 May09 Jan30 (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 119 8.00 16% 5.40    
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of PEYTONA by MR. GREELEY)
5  APPALACHIAN SPIRIT Jun18 May29 May03 Apr01 Mar14 (overholt pau)BERRIOS HECTOR 123 12.00    
  (by MOR SPIRIT out of PRETTY MUCH MINE by HALF OURS)
6  SMARTASSET Aug10 Jul23 Jun17 Dec21 Dec11 (cline c)AVILES YAN 123 3.50 17% 4.90    
  (by SMARTY JONES out of SOME GIVEN LEGEND by POINT GIVEN)
7  MANDAVILLA Aug10 Jul23 Jul02     (tumblin andrew)VIGIL NOEL 123 6.00    
  (by ALTERNATION out of MANDABULL by NEWFOUNDLAND)
8  J. P INDY Jul23 Jul02 Dec21 Dec11 Nov22 (cline c)BOWEN ROCCO 123 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CONGRATS out of JANNES PAUL by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
 
TDN-7   08/28/2024 3960ft DIRT RC10 GOOD Allowance Purse ($38.4K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  GO GIRL Jul10 Jun19 May14 Apr25 Mar28 (yoder d)CEDILLO MAURO 121 3.50    
2  EXACTITUDE Aug01 Jul09 Jun18 May06 Mar14 (calderon ivan)BOWEN ROCCO 119 4.00 21% 3.70    
3  DOMINIQUE'S NIGHT Nov07 Oct23 Sep04 Aug03 Jun05 (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  TWISTED JUSTICE Jul25 Jul09 Jun19 May28 Apr11 (feliciano benny)FELICIANO R 117 4.50    
5  SALUTE THE KID Jul31 Jul10 Jun22 May23 May07 (rettele ri)HERNANDEZ ALVARO 123 2.50    
6  KAT TRAX Jul31 Jul10 Jun19 May28 May07 (gorham robert )DIAZ I 121 3.00 26% 2.80    
 
TDN-8   08/28/2024 5280ft DIRT RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($26.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GREERS FERRY Jul11 Jun22 Jun04 May14 Apr27 (puhl kim)GONZALEZ A 119 1.80 58% 0.70    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of DEE DEE BERTIE by BLUEGRASS CAT)
2  HE'S A PISCES Feb04 Jan06 Oct25 Oct07   (winters miche)CEDILLO MAURO 123 4.50 9% 9.90    
  (by HARD SPUN out of MISS HOROSCOPE by ASTROLOGY)
SCR  LORD MARXMAN Jul11 Jun22 May21     (winters miche)SIMPSON JASON 119 2.00    
  (by LORD NELSON out of MARCO GROOM by MARCO BAY)
4  LEAVENWORTH Aug05 Jun19 Jun04 Apr20 Mar28 (erdel jo)FERNANDEZ R 123 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by AMERICAN FREEDOM out of ELECTIVE by GRAND SLAM)
5  MIRO Aug05 Jul24 Jul10 Dec29 Dec08 (reust megan)BERRIOS HECTOR 123 15.00    
  (by SENOR SWINGER out of BEAUTIFUL CANDY by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
6  PLAIN AND SIMPLE May26         (skerrett jeff)BRACHO A 119 3.00    
  (by DESTIN out of WILDLY by WILD WONDER)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.