Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Finger Lakes
Wednesday - November 15, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
FL-1   WIN (3/5/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/5/1)-(3/5/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/5/1)-(3/5/1)-(3/5/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/5/1)-(3/4/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
FL-2   WIN (3/4/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/4/2)-(3/4/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/4/2)-(3/4/2)-(3/4/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/4/2)-(1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (3/4/2)-(1/3)-(5/9/8/7) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
FL-3   WIN (1/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/3)-(1/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (1/3)-(5/9/8/7) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (1/3)-(5/9/8/7)-(7/4/1) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
FL-4   WIN (5/9/8/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/9/8/7)-(5/9/8/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/9/8/7)-(5/9/8/7)-(5/9/8/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/9/8/7)-(7/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
FL-5   WIN (7/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/4/1)-(7/4/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/4/1)-(7/4/1)-(7/4/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/4/1)-(4/5/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
FL-6   WIN (4/5/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/5/1)-(4/5/3/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (4/5/1)-(4/5/3/1)-(4/5/3/1) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (4/5/1)-(7/8/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/5/1)-(7/8/1)-(4/5/1/9) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
FL-7   WIN (7/8/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/8/1)-(7/8/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/8/1)-(7/8/1)-(7/8/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/8/1)-(4/5/1/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
FL-8   WIN (4/5/1/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/5/1/9)-(4/5/1/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/5/1/9)-(4/5/1/9)-(4/5/1/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
FL-1   11/15/2023 5490ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($26.7K) 3UP ALL PT-12:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BREW PUB Sep21 Aug05 Jul01 May21 Apr30 (englehart chr)DAVILA R 122 2.50 7% 13.60    
2  SHANTY SHACK Oct23 Oct09 Sep06 Aug15 Jul25 (miller-saul beth)CRUZ JOEL 124 5.00    
3  CIVIL SERVICE Oct18 Sep20 Sep05 Aug15 Jul26 (ferraro michael)PEREZ E 122 1.60 56% 0.80    
4  ASAP RESTORATION Oct18 Sep20 Aug28 Aug15 Aug05 (ronen assaf)VENTURA JOSE 122 8.00    
5  DOC ADVANTAGE Oct25 Oct09 Sep12 Aug09 Jun12 (barrow paul)FLORES JEREMIAS 124 3.50 14% 6.00    
6  BAR FOURTEEN Oct18 Sep28 Sep01 Aug15 Jul13 (sells rachel)COA J 122 10.00    
 
FL-2   11/15/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12.6K) 3UP ALL PT-12:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SMOKIN' ALONE Nov07 Oct25 Oct17 Sep05 Aug16 (sabine michael )ROHENA JR 122 10.00    
2  MIAMI CHROME Nov07 Oct25 Oct11 Sep20 Sep05 (loaiza ilmar)PEREZ E 122 6.00 7% 12.80    
3  FATHER WALSH Oct25 Aug16 Jul17 Jun21 Jun05 (bar)WORRIE SHIVNARINE 122 2.00 55% 0.80    
4  DEVIL OR ANGEL Sep26 Aug29 Aug14 Jul17 Jun28 (lecesse michae)COA J 122 8.00 16% 5.40    
SCR  MARGARITA SUNRISE Nov07 Oct25 Oct03 Sep19 Sep04 (tasso mark)ALVARADO R 122 12.00    
6  HEYITSNRICOPALAZO Oct30 Oct03 Aug08 Jul11 Jun27 (murphy t)DAVIS A 124 12.00    
SCR  JOEY LOOSE LIPS Jun13 Mar26 Mar11 Feb12 Jan14 (d'aless)NAVARRO J 122 3.00    
8  VICTORY BUILT Sep26 Aug23 Jul12 Jun20 May17 (englehart )DE EMANUEL 122 3.50    
 
FL-3   11/15/2023 5490ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($10K) Purse ($24.7K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:11
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TIVOLI GARDENS Oct23 Oct03 Aug09 Jul12 Nov21 (ferraro michael)PEREZ E 122 4.00 36% 1.80    
SCR  B B'S BUSTED Aug24 Jul26 Jun21 Jun12 May04 (englehart jef)DAVILA R 122 1.40    
3  ALLURE FORTUNE Oct30 Oct04 Sep11 Aug21 Aug02 (saul dana)BAEZ JOSE 124 3.00 23% 3.30    
4  HOLIDAY JAZZ Oct23 Sep20 Sep11 Aug21 Aug01 (d'alessand)DE EMANUEL 124 6.00    
SCR  SILENT INVASION Sep19 Aug28 Jul19 Jul04 Jul25 (ferraro anth)COA J 122 6.00    
6  WAIT A MINUTE Oct06 Apr29 Apr15 Jan27 Jan13 (eng)WORRIE SHIVNARINE 122 12.00    
 
FL-4   11/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:39
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WINE TRAIL Nov01 Oct16 Oct02 Sep18 Aug21 (progno michael )ROHENA JR 122 15.00    
2  YES YOUR HONOR Nov01 Sep05 Aug02 Jul19 Jun20 (clarke dylan)BAEZ JOSE 122 20.00    
3  TASTY WAVE Oct31 Oct23 Oct04 Sep20 Sep06 (ash)WORRIE SHIVNARINE 122 6.00    
4  FREE SHOT Oct24 Sep19 Aug23 Jul24 Jul11 (d'alessand)DE EMANUEL 119 3.50    
5  SWEET SUGAR BABY Nov01 Oct16 Sep06 Aug02 Jul18 (breed a)COA J 122 2.50 53% 0.90    
6  ROYAL JUBILEE Oct24 Oct11 Sep27 Aug18 Jul29 (maver eduardo)DAVILA A 119 20.00    
7  QUIET HORIZON Nov07 Oct23 Oct11 Sep27 Aug30 (cabrera a)PEREZ E 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
8  JACKIE B GOOD Nov01 Oct16 Oct02 Sep18 Sep05 (clarke d)DAVIS A 122 4.00 9% 9.90    
9  LADY YELLEN Oct25 Oct10 Sep26 Sep19 Aug28 (murphy timothy)ALVARADO R 122 6.00 15% 5.90    
 
FL-5   11/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($11K) Purse ($17.2K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:07
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RULER OF THE NIGHT Oct25 Aug29 Jun26 Jun05 May08 (eng)WORRIE SHIVNARINE 121 3.50 22% 3.60    
2  STAR SPEAKER Nov01 Oct04 Sep04 Aug14 Jul24 (buckley jonat)NAVARRO KEVIN 124 5.00    
3  TUMBLES Nov01 Oct04 Sep18 Aug23 Aug14 (ashley julius)PEREZ E 121 6.00    
4  BUSTINROXY Nov01 Oct17 Aug08 Jul24 Jun26 (ferraro anth)COA J 121 2.50 24% 3.20    
5  DEVILLY Nov01 Oct17 Oct04 Sep12 Aug22 (d'alessand)DE EMANUEL 124 6.00    
6  FUNNY HONEY Sep27 Aug29 Nov14     (barrow paul)FLORES JEREMIAS 121 8.00    
7  PUZZLE Jun06 Oct12 Sep05 Aug08 Jul18 (barrow p)DAVIS A 121 4.00 27% 2.70    
 
FL-6   11/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BAD CONNECTION Nov01 Oct16 Oct02 Sep05 Aug21 (gutierrez luis)ALVARADO R 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
2  SUBTLE GIANT Nov01 Oct16 Oct02 Sep06 Aug23 (d'alessand)DE EMANUEL 122 6.00    
3  UNBRIDLED'S REIGN Oct31 Sep06 Aug23 Aug02 Jul10 (breed ronald )DAVILA A 124 3.50 ★    
4  MOTLEY SUE Oct04 Jun06 May15 May02 Nov07 (englehart chr)DAVILA R 122 3.00 47% 1.10    
5  PRINCESS SONYA Jul31 Jul12 Jun06 May22 Apr30 (ferraro michael)PEREZ E 122 2.50 28% 2.50    
6  BON FIRE DIVA Nov07 Sep27 Aug30 Aug09 Jul25 (williams omani)FRET STEVEN 122 15.00    
7  ONE FLASHY GIRL Aug21 Aug24 Aug03     (cotrone denise)ROHENA JR 122 20.00    
SCR  MIDMON Nov01 Oct24 Oct02 Sep18 Aug21 (clarke dylan)BAEZ JOSE 122 12.00    
9  CENTRAL CAPITAL Nov01 Oct24 Oct10 Sep26 Sep18 (rivera d)DAVIS A 122 15.00    
 
FL-7   11/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($26K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:03
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BANYAN BREEZE Oct19 Sep20 Sep05 Aug09 Jul10 (tasso ma)DAVIS A 124 8.00 16% 5.20    
2  DISCO DEANO Sep01 Jul12 May29 Oct10 Sep20 (ferraro anth)COA J 120 6.00    
3  GAGETOWN Oct10 Mar24 Feb10 Feb04 Jan19 (eng)WORRIE SHIVNARINE 120 5.00    
4  DON'T POKE THE CAT Sep20 Aug29 Aug16 Aug02 Jul11 (loaiza )NAVARRO J 120 12.00    
SCR  WARALO Nov01 Sep19 Aug29 Jul26 Jul03 (englehart chr)DAVILA R 124 3.50    
6  WRITER'S REGRET Nov01 Aug16 Jul23 Jun20 May29 (d'alessand)DE EMANUEL 120 10.00    
7  ALLURE OF MONEY Oct16 Sep25 Aug27 Jul17 Jun28 (ferraro michael)PEREZ E 121 3.00 31% 2.20    
8  LADY'S GOLDEN GUY Oct16 Sep20 Sep04 Aug16 Jul12 (breed a)CRUZ JOEL 120 4.00 30% 2.40    
 
FL-8   11/15/2023 5490ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SEATIGER Oct24 Sep25 Sep06 Aug09 Jul12 (grabowski john)COA J 122 6.00 17% 4.90    
2  MAKE IT IN NY Oct30 Oct10 Sep19 Sep04 Aug23 (englehart chr)DAVILA R 122 3.00    
3  LORENZEN Nov06 Oct23 Oct10 Sep26 Sep12 (bireta donn)FLORES JEREMIAS 124 8.00    
4  EIGHT WEEKS LONG Oct24 Oct10 Sep26 Sep13 Jul12 (ferraro )DAVIS A 122 5.00 37% 1.70    
5  TRISAETUM Oct30 Oct10 Sep13 Aug07 Jul12 (acquilano jam)DAVILA A 122 5.00 23% 3.40    
6  BERT BERT BERT Nov06 Oct10 Sep22 Aug24 Aug03 (gutierrez luis )ROHENA JR 122 6.00    
SCR  MARCH MADNEZ PARTY Oct30 Oct17 Sep26 Sep06 Aug22 (babcock edward)FRET STEVEN 122 20.00    
8  OLIVER WITHA TWIST Oct30 Oct10 Sep26 Sep05 Aug23 (clarke dylan)BAEZ JOSE 122 20.00    
9  MOON HUNTER Oct26 Oct18 Oct04 Sep13 Aug29 (sells rach)DE EMANUEL 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
10  OVER THE CAP Oct23 Oct02 Sep18 Sep06 Aug14 (ferraro michael)PEREZ E 121 3.50    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.