Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Belterra Park
Wednesday - October 04, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
BTP-1   WIN (4/2/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/2/6)-(4/2/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/2/6)-(4/2/6)-(4/2/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/2/6)-(4/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/2/6)-(4/3)-(2/6) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
BTP-2   WIN (4/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/3)-(4/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    PK3 (4/3)-(2/6)-(4/1/3) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
BTP-3   WIN (2/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/6)-(2/6) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    PK3 (2/6)-(4/1/3)-(1/2/9/10) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
BTP-4   WIN (4/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/3)-(4/1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/1/3)-(4/1/3)-(4/1/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (4/1/3)-(1/2/9/10)-(5/1/4) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
BTP-5   WIN (1/2/9/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/2/9/10)-(1/2/9/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/2/9/10)-(1/2/9/10)-(1/2/9/10) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/2/9/10)-(5/1/4)-(3/6/7) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
BTP-6   WIN (5/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/1/4)-(5/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/1/4)-(5/1/4)-(5/1/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (5/1/4)-(3/6/7)-(9/5) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
BTP-7   WIN (3/6/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/6/7)-(3/6/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/6/7)-(3/6/7)-(3/6/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/6/7)-(9/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
BTP-8   WIN (9/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (9/5)-(9/5) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
BTP-1   10/04/2023 5280ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($16K) Purse ($17.8K) 3UP ALL PT-12:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EPIMYTHIUM Sep03 Aug11 Jul21 Dec14 Oct26 (meah m)HEARD TYLER 120 3.00    
2  DEVOTED TO YOU Sep20 Aug24 Jul20 Jun24 Jun03 (alessi james)LEBRON VICTOR 120 3.50 26% 2.80    
3  WRITTENINTHESTARS Sep01 May27 Apr27 Mar26 Mar05 (o'dwyer jerem)JIMENEZ ALBIN 113 4.50    
4  AUTHORITARIAN Sep20 Sep13 Aug23 Jul27 Jul08 (estvanko)MARTINEZ LUIS 124 2.00 51% 0.90    
5  HEMP HEAVEN Sep22 Aug02 Feb09 Dec31 Nov27 (wittek karyn)OUZTS W 120 5.00    
6  DANCE THE DAY AWAY Sep03 Aug15 Jul27 Jul08 Jun21 (decker anna)GOMEZ AGUSTIN 117 6.00 5% 19.00    
7  AZURE SKY Sep08 Aug16 Jul27 Jul06 Jun24 (mendieta alej)PANAIJO JORGE 120 20.00    
 
BTP-2   10/04/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($16.2K) 3UP M/F PT-12:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ARC LIGHT Aug23         (west w)LEBRON VICTOR 121 8.00    
  (by SHARP AZTECA out of SARAH ELIZABETH by SKY MESA)
SCR  PLEDGULATIONS Sep14 Aug11 Jul12 Jun07   (rider m)OUZTS W 121 4.00    
  (by CONGRATS out of PLEDGE MOM by WILD RUSH)
3  VOSTRA Sep13 Sep02 Aug17 Aug03 Jul09 (jones s)CANUTO THIAGO 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by FORT LARNED out of WANDAFUL WANDAFUL by HERO'S TRIBUTE)
4  MUCHA Sep06 Aug16 Jul20 Jun30   (drury jr)MCKEE J 121 2.00 66% 0.50    
  (by BLAME out of EXTENT by PULPIT)
5  LUCKY ANA Jun15 May27 May10 Apr01 Mar09 (douaihy mich)ARAGON ROLANDO 121 3.50    
  (by LOOKIN AT LUCKY out of GREAT INTENTIONS by CAT THIEF)
6  RED JAG Aug26 Jul08 Apr23 Mar09 Feb08 (lobo h)JIMENEZ ALBIN 121 3.00    
  (by MIZZEN MAST out of ESSTADISTA by ESSAYONS)
 
BTP-3   10/04/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($17.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CARLY'S FLIGHT Sep07 Aug09 Jul26 Jul07 Jun17 (rodak geral)LAGUNES GABRIEL 120 4.50    
2  SWEET OUTLOOK Oct12 Sep12 Aug10 Jul07 Jun20 (chain pearl)PANAIJO JORGE 120 2.50 45% 1.20    
SCR  DELIGHTFUL CAT Sep07 Aug17 Jul22 Oct05 Sep23 (thomas mark)MCKEE J 120 3.50    
4  NANA ROZE Aug23 Aug09 Jul20 Jul08 Jun23 (morelos mate)MARCANO Y 115 6.00    
5  TREASURE WILBURNYA Aug23 Jul26 Jun23 Sep09 Aug24 (haehn r)OUZTS W 120 5.00    
6  PRICELESS PICTURE Sep22 Sep07 Aug26 Jul27 Jun30 (anderson susa)LEBRON VICTOR 117 3.00 33% 2.00    
 
BTP-4   10/04/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($17.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SWEET AS MERRIE Sep13 Aug10 Jul20 Jun09 Oct10 (reed r)MCKEE J 118 3.00 16% 5.40    
2  DESDEMONA KAY Sep13 Aug16 Aug03 Jul20 Jun24 (riley barbara)HESS SARA 113 5.00    
3  SHADY BABY Aug30 Jul20 Jul08 Jun23 Mar08 (skeens je)CORREA L 121 6.00 5% 19.00    
4  TWENTY FOUR KARAT Sep13 Aug29 Jul27 Jun30 Aug13 (hamm timothy)LEBRON VICTOR 118 2.00 62% 0.60    
5  TWILIGHT BEAUTY Sep13 Aug30 Aug15 Aug03 Jul19 (donjuan sergi)CANUTO THIAGO 120 10.00    
6  OHIO LADY Sep13 Aug05 Jul19 Jun08 May17 (smith larry)OUZTS W 118 4.50    
7  JUST ZOEY Aug10 Jul20 Jul08 Jun22 Oct05 (lowry kathl)LAGUNES GABRIEL 121 8.00    
 
BTP-5   10/04/2023 5280ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($10K) Purse ($13.1K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NOBLE PURSUIT Sep21 Aug16 Aug09 Jul16 Jul02 (rodriguez hugo)LEZCANO ABEL 121 2.50 28% 2.60    
2  JUANITA'S EXPRESS Sep09 Aug23 Aug01 Mar31 Mar15 (deegan c)MOJICA JR 121 3.50 28% 2.60    
3  SON OF GRACE Aug30 Aug09 Jul20 Jun25 Jun11 (hughes w)CANUTO THIAGO 121 12.00    
4  BLUEMOON JUSTICE Aug16 Jul29 Jul11 Jun13 May16 (bush s)BUSH V 121 12.00    
5  DRIFTWOOD Sep02 Aug11 Jul27 Jun09 May17 (kordenbrock)LAGUNES GABRIEL 121 6.00    
6  SCAT SHACK Sep20 Sep01 Aug15 Jul19 Jun22 (ramos fra)CORREA L 121 5.00    
SCR  DIGITAL SOFTWARE Sep15 Sep05 Aug23 Jul20 Jul06 (cara)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 121 8.00    
8  SUBDUED Sep15 Sep01 Aug17 Aug01 Jul14 (hiles a)MCKEE J 121 3.00    
9  VIOLIN MAKER Sep01 Aug17 Jul31 Jul02 May28 (hernandez d)MIRANDA ROGELIO 121 6.00 18% 4.50    
10  WHERE'D THE DAY GO Sep21 Sep06 Aug27 Aug09 Jul08 (rodriguez hugo)COLON H 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  EDEN PARADISE Aug23 Aug15 Jul27 Jul16 Jun23 (james gerald)PANAIJO JORGE 121 10.00    
 
BTP-6   10/04/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($9K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BRODY'S FLY Sep19 Aug28 Aug09 Jul27 Jul19 (jones s)JIMENEZ ALBIN 122 3.50 23% 3.40    
2  HINDOSTAIN FALLS Aug05 Jul13 Jun14 May17 May06 (woodbury )CORREA L 119 6.00    
3  YES POINT Sep02 Aug04 May25 Apr29 Jan19 (mckeever andrew)MOJICA JR 119 2.50    
4  FRADY Sep20 Aug31 Jul20 Jul07 Jun23 (adams l)HESS SARA 114 5.00 15% 5.60    
5  COMMANDER COMPTON Sep20 Sep02 Nov10 Oct02 Sep03 (kordenbrock)LAGUNES GABRIEL 122 3.00 34% 2.00    
6  MR JOKE Sep14 Aug31 Aug18 Aug02 Apr20 (ramos rafael)PANAIJO JORGE 119 10.00    
7  BELL CURVE Sep20 Aug03 Jul07 Jun23 May27 (bates l)LEBRON VICTOR 119 8.00    
 
BTP-7   10/04/2023 4290ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($20K) Purse ($21.3K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DYNAMIC REACH Dec21 Oct20 Sep28 Sep14 Aug30 (cha)GIRON ALEJANDRO 120 10.00    
2  OL' NED Sep06 Jul08 Jun21 Jun07 May17 (cline c)OUZTS W 120 5.00    
3  BRILLIANT JOURNEY Sep13 Aug18 Jul06 Jun02 May18 (smith larry)JIMENEZ ALBIN 120 2.50 46% 1.20    
4  THEDAYOFTHEGREY Sep06 Aug03 Jul22 Jul05 Jun02 (cline rob)CORREA L 120 6.00    
5  DASH OF FIRE Sep14 Sep01 Aug18 Aug11 Nov30 (chain pearl)PANAIJO JORGE 122 8.00    
6  HENRY MAC Sep12 Aug16 Jul22 Jul05 Jun13 (radosevich jeff)MCKEE J 120 1.80 22% 3.40    
7  COUNTRY CLUB BOBBY Sep20 Aug05 Jun02 Oct29 Sep21 (morey e)FELIX E 120 4.00 10% 8.90    
 
BTP-8   10/04/2023 3300ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($7.5K) Purse ($9.1K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  HICKORY BILL Sep14 Aug30 Aug16 Aug03 Jul22 (rodak geral)JIMENEZ J 124 20.00    
2  GUS GUS Sep14 Aug30 Aug16 Aug04 Jul06 (helmbrecht wi)CANUTO THIAGO 124 5.00    
SCR  PAPA DEL CIELO Sep19 Sep05 Aug23 Aug13 May20 (gotera car)REYES FRANK 121 10.00    
4  LITTLE BANKER MAN Aug13 Aug05 Jul23 Jul16 Jul01 (barrett grant)PANAIJO JORGE 121 10.00    
5  CARTOON CAPER Sep09 Aug17 Jul01 Jun10 May13 (greenhill jef)LEBRON VICTOR 121 2.50 16% 5.40    
SCR  ST. CALVIN Aug09 Jun08 May29 Apr21 Mar05 (cahill f)BUSH V 124 15.00    
SCR  FORT STROOPE Sep16 Jul20 Jul06 Oct11 Aug24 (short thomas)TERRAZA GERMAN 116 8.00    
SCR  KEYSER Sep24 Sep17 Sep05 Aug02 Jul18 (gotera juan )MARCANO Y 116 6.00    
9  PROTEST Sep16         (claire alexis)MCKEE J 121 3.50 52% 0.90    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.