Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Wednesday - November 12, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (4/1/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/7)-(4/1/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/1/7)-(4/1/7)-(4/1/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/1/7)-(6/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/1/7)-(6/8)-(6/4/7/1) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-2   WIN (6/8) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/8)-(6/2/3/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/8)-(6/2/3/8)-(6/2/3/8) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (6/8)-(6/4/7/1) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (6/8)-(6/4/7/1)-(1/5/2) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-3   WIN (6/4/7/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/4/7/1)-(6/4/7/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/4/7/1)-(6/4/7/1)-(6/4/7/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/4/7/1)-(1/5/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/4/7/1)-(1/5/2)-(10/12/1/3/5) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-4   WIN (1/5/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/5/2)-(1/5/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/5/2)-(1/5/2)-(1/5/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/5/2)-(10/12/1/3/5) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (1/5/2)-(10/12/1/3/5)-(3/8/1) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CD-5   WIN (10/12/1/3/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/12/1/3/5)-(10/12/1/3/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/12/1/3/5)-(10/12/1/3/5)-(10/12/1/3/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (10/12/1/3/5)-(3/8/1) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (10/12/1/3/5)-(3/8/1)-(1/3/7/4) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-6   WIN (3/8/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/8/1)-(3/8/1/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (3/8/1)-(3/8/1/5)-(3/8/1/5) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (3/8/1)-(1/3/7/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/8/1)-(1/3/7/4)-(3/2/1/5) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-7   WIN (1/3/7/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/3/7/4)-(1/3/7/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/3/7/4)-(1/3/7/4)-(1/3/7/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/3/7/4)-(3/2/1/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/3/7/4)-(3/2/1/5)-(12/8/4/11/5) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-8   WIN (3/2/1/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/2/1/5)-(3/2/1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/2/1/5)-(3/2/1/5)-(3/2/1/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/2/1/5)-(12/8/4/11/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
CD-9   WIN (12/8/4/11/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (12/8/4/11/5)-(12/8/4/11/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (12/8/4/11/5)-(12/8/4/11/5)-(12/8/4/11/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/12/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($32K) Purse ($71K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HONKY TONK HIGHWAY Jun21 May23 Mar19 Nov30 Mar24 (calhoun wil)CONCEPCION AXEL 120 6.00 13% 6.70    
SCR  TURN UP THE TREES Oct10 Sep17 Aug09 Jul14 Jun18 (jacobson d)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.00    
3  HOCUS (GB) Sep21 Jul11 May18 Jun21 May10 (thompson micha)ASHTON GAVIN 120 20.00    
4  TOP GUN TOMMY Sep27 Sep11 Aug02 Jun21 May06 (foster eric)ORTIZ L 120 2.50 43% 1.30    
5  FIVE O' SOMEWHERE Oct29 Sep27 Sep18 Aug10 Jun03 (sweezey ken)ORTIZ JR 120 3.00    
6  GILDED RULER Sep28 Sep04 Aug01 Jun03 Apr30 (cook b)GEROUX FLORENT 120 5.00    
7  SCOTTY'S ON EDGE Sep24 Aug13 Jun25 Jun03 Apr15 (dobbsjr r)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 120 15.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-2   11/12/2025 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($55K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SERGEANT GUMP Oct30 Aug28 Aug15 Feb05 Jan17 (decker anna)COLON H 120 6.00    
2  CHRYSO ALOGO Oct14 Sep13 Sep02 Aug17 Jul13 (watkins m)FELIX E 120 3.50 ★    
3  BORN FLAWLESS Oct10 Sep24 Sep12 Jul06 Jun18 (casse norm )CONCEPCION AXEL 120 5.00 ★    
4  J J'S JOKER Oct12 Sep27 Jul25 Jul17 Jun28 (kantarmaci m)TORRES A 120 6.00    
5  READY PURSUIT Oct06 Aug28 Aug13 Jul16 Jun15 (gonzalez rein)TREJOS JOSEPH 120 30.00    
6  CAPE TRAFALGAR (IRE) Jun07 Apr12 Jan25 Dec21 Oct19 (foster er)TORRES A 120 1.60 69% 0.50    
7  SUTHERLAND Oct12 Sep24 Sep12 Jul05 Jun12 (kantarmaci me)ORTIZ JR 120 5.00    
8  HOMETOWN HERO Oct12 Sep24 Aug07 Jun26 Jun04 (moreno t)RODRIGUEZ A 120 30.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-3   11/12/2025 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($80K) Purse ($82K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MISS MACY Oct21 Mar07 Feb02 Jan18   (ortiz )GRISALES DANILO 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  LOVELY EMMA Oct15 Aug22 Jul06 May10 Dec19 (eurton peter)ORTIZ L 118 4.00    
3  SPEIGHTER WOMAN Oct15 Sep24 Aug28 Jul26 Jun28 (lovell mich)ALVARADO JUNIOR 120 3.00    
4  NORTHERN VOYAGE Oct08 Aug23 Oct27 Sep20 Aug03 (eurton peter)ORTIZ JR 118 4.50 17% 4.90    
5  KISSIN CASH Sep26 Aug26 Dec01     (williams )TORRES A 118 5.00    
6  HER TOWN Oct17         (sims p)MACHADO LUAN 120 5.00 46% 1.20    
7  HARMONY ROAD Oct01 Aug15 Jul11 Jun21   (kelly blak)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00 8% 10.90    
8  BAMTWENTYKLATER Sep07 Aug17 Jul04 Jun06   (hartman chris)BACON W 118 6.00    
 
CD-4   11/12/2025 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($37K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EVENING NEWS Sep12 Aug17 Jul14 May17 Apr26 (diodoro r)TORRES A 121 2.50 36% 1.80    
2  PATCH O'BRIEN Sep27 Apr06 Mar15 Mar02 Jan24 (bahena fern)CONCEPCION AXEL 121 15.00 13% 6.60    
3  TRACK RANGER Sep29 Sep03 Aug08 Jun13 Feb07 (tomlinson)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 12.00    
4  TEJAS Oct17 Sep14 Aug14 Jul03 May27 (jacobson d)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 5.00    
5  DARYL'S BOLT Oct17 Feb28 Feb08 Jan04 Nov30 (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 121 6.00 22% 3.60    
SCR  MODICA Oct22 Oct02 Aug07 Jul22 Jul02 (williams)RODRIGUEZ A 123 15.00    
SCR  DEMOTIVATE Apr11 Mar09 Feb07 Jan04 Nov03 (blair jordan)TORRES A 121 4.50    
SCR  NINE QUESTIONS Oct21 Oct02 Sep18 Aug27 Aug07 (granitz anthon)CEDILLO ABEL 118 20.00    
SCR  CALL THE CAVALRY Oct31 Oct10 Sep11 Aug20 Jul12 (mcpeek ke)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 121 4.00    
10  JR'S GIFT Oct17 Sep14 Aug17 Jun05 Apr24 (wiggins lon)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 15.00    
 
CD-5   11/12/2025 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 2:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MELODY MAKER Oct09 Sep06       (casse mark)ORTIZ JR 119 3.50 9% 9.60    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of FIFTYSHADESOFHAY by PULPIT)
2  LILLESAND         (wilkes r)CEDILLO ABEL 119 15.00    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of WINIKINS by COZZENE)
3  CAT SPRING Oct05         (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by UPSTART out of AFTERNOON by STREET CRY)
4  MALANYA Oct11         (navarret)RODRIGUEZ A 119 12.00    
  (by BLAME out of DON'TEATMYCOOKIES by ALTERNATION)
5  ALWAYS IN VOGUE         (blair jordan)TORRES A 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TIZ THE LAW out of GLAMOURATTI by STREET SENSE)
6  SUGAR DOLL Sep11         (lynch brian )MONCADA IRVING 119 15.00    
  (by WESTERN FAME out of SINCERELY SWEET by SKYWALKER)
7  AMENDED DREAMER Sep18 Aug16       (antonucci je)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 20.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of WINDMILL by STREET SENSE)
8  TAP TO GIVE         (leitch da)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 15.00    
  (by TAPIT out of RIDEFORTHECAUSE by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
9  LOST CHORD Oct17 Aug30 Aug09     (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 119 15.00    
  (by MAXFIELD out of FANCY AND FLASHY by ZENSATIONAL)
10  TEMPLE GODDESS Oct23 Sep20 Aug28 Aug07 Jul28 (corrigan jim)ELLIOTT JANE 119 2.50 38% 1.70    
  (by TEMPLE CITY out of REVELSTOKE by MONASHEE MOUNTAIN)
11  COMPLETELY ELEGANT Oct05         (oliver vict)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 20.00    
  (by DEVIL'S BAG out of ITSAGIANTCAUSEWAY by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
12  TREASURED TIMES Oct18         (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 27% 2.70    
  (by ESSENTIAL QUALITY out of POST PERFECTION by MAJESTICPERFECTION)
SCR  TENDER TEMPER         (walden will)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 8.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of LEGAL TENDER by JUDGE T C)
SCR  PATRON SILVER Oct18         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 2.50    
  (by HOLY BULL out of BODACIOUS TATAS by DISTINCTIVE PRO)
SCR  SEA ZEST Oct09 Sep10 Jun27     (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of SEA SHADOW by JUMP START)
SCR  VIKING QUEST         (robson la)LEPAROUX R 119 20.00    
  (by TEN SOVEREIGNS out of MAJESTIC HAZE by MAJESTIC WARRIOR)
 
CD-6   11/12/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($57K) 2 ALL PT- 3:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROMANTIC RIDE         (m)DE CRUZ 119 20.00 9% 10.30    
SCR  COAL FIRED         (lynch a)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00    
3  AWESOME HAWAIIAN         (walden willia)ORTIZ JR 119 8.00 22% 3.50    
SCR  MOUNTAIN HIGH Oct03 Aug31 Aug17     (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 119 1.80    
5  ALTER BOY         (cline c)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 15.00 ★    
6  LEDBETTER Oct11         (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00    
7  BARSTOOL Oct29 Oct15 Sep21 Sep13 Aug22 (vasquez germa)TREJOS JOSEPH 119 12.00    
8  ELECTION NIGHT Oct23 Sep21 Aug17     (radosevich shelly )GRAHAM J 119 8.00 18% 4.50    
9  LOOKIN AT MAC         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 10.00    
SCR  KINGSCLIFF         (jacobson david)ORTIZ L 119 5.00    
11  INSPECTOR FRED         (navarret)RODRIGUEZ A 119 15.00    
 
CD-7   11/12/2025 4950ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TROUBLE IN LOVE Sep19 Mar30 Feb17 Jan20 Dec01 (cox h)ORTIZ JR 118 1.40 42% 1.40    
2  LADY OF SILENCE Oct18 Jul26 Jun26 May02 Mar30 (fawkes da)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 15.00    
3  GIN'S BEACH ROAD Oct11 Sep14 Aug21 Jul05   (casse mark)ORTIZ L 120 1.60 29% 2.50    
4  CONTRARY Sep26 Jul26       (walsh p)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  WHIPPOORWILL Oct03 Mar22 Feb13 Nov24   (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 10.00    
6  KISS ME AGAIN Jun17 May28 Apr26 Mar28 Mar07 (blair jorda)GUTIERREZ MARIO 120 15.00    
7  GET BACK LORETTA Oct04 Aug21       (stall albe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 5.00 8% 11.50    
 
CD-8   11/12/2025 5610ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BIG BLUE LINE Sep10 Jul26 Jun07 May11 Apr04 (dutrow richard)ORTIZ L 121 5.00 20% 4.10    
2  PASSION RULES Apr05 Mar14 Feb22 Jan27   (cox h)ORTIZ JR 118 2.00 24% 3.10    
3  SIR GREYLIND Sep18 Feb16 Jan25 Jan04 Dec06 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 121 2.50 34% 2.00    
4  URBAN PLANNER Mar22 Mar06 Feb08 Sep23 Aug05 (harty eoin)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 15.00    
5  NEON NIGHTS Aug30 Aug09 May18 Apr13 Mar02 (blair jordan)TORRES A 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
6  DUKE OF DUVAL Sep18 Aug09 Jul13 May24 Oct17 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 10.00    
7  TREBLE CLEF Sep28 May16 Apr23 Mar18 Feb06 (casse w)SAEZ LUIS 121 15.00    
8  RESILIENCE Oct16 Sep18 Aug09 Jul12 Jun08 (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 121 3.00    
 
CD-9   11/12/2025 3300ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DISMISS Oct20 Sep18 Sep03 Aug15   (matejka pav)GUTIERREZ MARIO 122 15.00    
  (by GORMLEY out of SHILAH BABY by GRAYDAR)
2  HOGIE THE PLAYER Oct22 Aug01 Jun26     (wismer glen)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 15.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of IN JAIL by INTO MISCHIEF)
3  THUNDER ROLL Sep18 Sep10 Aug11 Sep28 Aug24 (mott i)SAEZ LUIS 122 12.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of CHARGED by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
4  BE REAL May11         (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 122 3.00 20% 4.10    
  (by CURLIN out of ISLAND SAINT by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
5  ZAP D'ETAT May26 Dec06 Nov09 Oct12 Sep19 (house gary)BARBOSA CARLOS 122 30.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TOM'S D'ETAT out of SHOVALLA by GHOSTZAPPER)
6  BIG GARRY Oct22 Dec14       (king bar)RODRIGUEZ A 122 30.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of SEA LEVEL DRIVE by MALIBU MOON)
7  CORTINA (IRE) Sep07 Aug13 Jul10 Jun12 May30 (riefenberg e)TORRES A 124 20.00    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of BEATRIX POTTER by CADEAUX GENEREUX)
SCR  BRIGHT SKITTLE Sep07 Apr10 Jul07 May11 Apr25 (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 122 4.00 25% 3.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of HARBOR LIGHTS by SHACKLEFORD)
9  WESTERN BOY (ARG)         (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 10.00    
  (by COLONEL JOHN out of WESTERN FATE by GONE WEST)
10  CARSON         (catalano wayne)ASHTON GAVIN 122 15.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of SHE'S ON PARADE by FUSAICHI PEGASUS)
11  MILITARY CRUISER Sep04 Aug01 Jun27 May09 May04 (vaccarezza ni)ORTIZ JR 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of VASILISA by SKIPSHOT)
12  I'M TROUBLE Sep07         (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 122 2.50 34% 1.90    
  (by BLACK MACKEE out of ACCOUNTABLE MISS by PRIVATE ACCOUNT)
SCR  COUNTTHECARATS Oct29 Sep18 Sep03 Aug25 Jun28 (labra rog)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 15.00    
  (by GORMLEY out of GARNET by STAGE DOOR JOHNNY)
SCR  FIRST NAVY JACK (IRE) Jun14 Apr20 Oct23 Aug31   (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 122 12.00    
  (by U S NAVY FLAG out of AMAZONAS by OPTIC NERVE)
SCR  ZAPPING STRIKE Sep18 Sep03 Aug25 Jul10 Jun26 (labra rogelio)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 20.00    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of STRIKING BEAUTY by CURLIN)
SCR  RESTORE (FR) May08 Mar19 Feb13 Dec19 Oct19 (stewart dall)GEROUX FLORENT 122 8.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of MOLLY CORBIN by WAR FRONT)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.