Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Sunday - September 28, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (4/1/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/6)-(4/1/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/1/6)-(4/1/6)-(4/1/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/1/6)-(7/6/1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/1/6)-(7/6/1/5)-(5/4/7/3) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-2   WIN (7/6/1/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/6/1/5)-(7/6/1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/6/1/5)-(7/6/1/5)-(7/6/1/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/6/1/5)-(5/4/7/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (7/6/1/5)-(5/4/7/3)-(1/4/7/10/8) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-3   WIN (5/4/7/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/4/7/3)-(5/4/7/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/4/7/3)-(5/4/7/3)-(5/4/7/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/4/7/3)-(1/4/7/10/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (5/4/7/3)-(1/4/7/10/8)-(8/7/1/4/2) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-4   WIN (1/4/7/10/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/4/7/10/8)-(1/4/7/10/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/4/7/10/8)-(1/4/7/10/8)-(1/4/7/10/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/4/7/10/8)-(8/7/1/4/2) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (1/4/7/10/8)-(8/7/1/4/2)-(1/9/10/8/5) 125 $1.00 $125 
CD-5   WIN (8/7/1/4/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/7/1/4/2)-(8/7/1/4/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/7/1/4/2)-(8/7/1/4/2)-(8/7/1/4/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (8/7/1/4/2)-(1/9/10/8/5) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (8/7/1/4/2)-(1/9/10/8/5)-(3/6/5/1) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-6   WIN (1/9/10/8/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/9/10/8/5)-(1/9/10/8/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/9/10/8/5)-(1/9/10/8/5)-(1/9/10/8/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/9/10/8/5)-(3/6/5/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/9/10/8/5)-(3/6/5/1)-(4/2) 40 $1.00 $40.00 
CD-7   WIN (3/6/5/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/6/5/1)-(3/6/5/8/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (3/6/5/1)-(3/6/5/8/1)-(3/6/5/8/1) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (3/6/5/1)-(4/2) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (3/6/5/1)-(4/2)-(6/4/8/5) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
CD-8   WIN (4/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/2)-(4/2/3) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (4/2)-(4/2/3)-(4/2/3) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (4/2)-(6/4/8/5) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (4/2)-(6/4/8/5)-(1/7/2/4/5) 40 $1.00 $40.00 
CD-9   WIN (6/4/8/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/4/8/5)-(6/4/3/8/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (6/4/8/5)-(6/4/3/8/5)-(6/4/3/8/5) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (6/4/8/5)-(1/7/2/4/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
CD-10   WIN (1/7/2/4/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/7/2/4/5)-(1/7/2/4/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/7/2/4/5)-(1/7/2/4/5)-(1/7/2/4/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   09/28/2025 4950ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($78K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BERMUDA BLITZ Aug09 Jul14 Jun11 May08 Mar14 (hernande)RODRIGUEZ A 118 4.00 25% 3.00    
2  KILLJOY Sep12 Aug02 Apr06 Mar22 Feb21 (mcgee paul)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 4.00    
3  SUMMONYOURCOURAGE Jun28 Jun04 May11 Apr16 Mar22 (esquivel jesu)MORALES EDGAR 121 3.50    
4  REMI'S MOON Sep17 Aug22 Jul23 Jul06 Jun04 (jacobson davi)ORTIZ JR 121 2.50 44% 1.30    
SCR  LURED AWAY Sep06 Aug09 Jul23 Jun21 May26 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.00    
6  GRAND ASPEN Aug31 Jul05 May11 Apr11 Mar02 (logsdon q)CANNON DECLAN 121 15.00 9% 9.60    
 
CD-2   09/28/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($32K) Purse ($71K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COUPERIN Sep14 Jul30 Jun27 May31 Apr29 (hartman ch)HERNANDEZ J 121 10.00 16% 5.30    
2  PAIR OF SOCKS Jul31 May29 Apr18 Mar20 Feb21 (stewart dalla)ORTIZ JR 118 3.50    
3  GILDED RULER Sep04 Aug01 Jun03 Apr30 Mar19 (cook b)GEROUX FLORENT 121 5.00    
4  BEBEDOURO Aug22 Jul09 Jun06 May01 Apr09 (tomlinson mi)TORRES A 121 6.00    
5  NABOKOV Sep11 Aug02 Jul04 Jun13 May23 (foster eric)CONCEPCION AXEL 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  AMERICAN XPERIMENT Sep11 Aug02 Jul03 May17 Nov16 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00 16% 5.30    
7  BUSHIDO Sep18 Sep04 Aug10 Jul04 Jun03 (jacobson )TORRES A 121 2.50 32% 2.10    
 
CD-3   09/28/2025 5280ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($20K) Purse ($76K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  UNLIMITEDPOTENTIAL Aug13 Jun15 Jun07 Apr24 Mar29 (kantarmaci m)TORRES A 122 4.00    
2  GREERS FERRY Jun07 May18 Apr13 Jan23 Dec06 (santamaria c)GEROUX FLORENT 122 20.00    
3  DANCE SOME MO Sep09 Aug18 Jul24 Jun25 Jun11 (van berg )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
4  WELAKA Aug21 Jul29 Jun06 May10 Mar22 (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 3.00 17% 4.90    
5  GILMORE Aug21 Jul16 Jun11 May18 Apr16 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50 38% 1.60    
6  BRAZENLY Aug30 Jul19 Jun15 May31 May11 (walden willia)ORTIZ JR 122 4.50    
7  ALTERNATE REALITY Aug31 Jul16 Jun07 Apr26 Apr04 (sharp joe)MORALES EDGAR 122 12.00 11% 7.90    
8  PAPA YO Sep14 Aug09 Jun22 May18 Feb01 (hartman ch)HERNANDEZ J 124 5.00    
 
CD-4   09/28/2025 5280ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 2 ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JUDICIAL REVIEW Aug30 Jun27       (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 4.00 35% 1.90    
2  HONEY DUTCH Sep04 Aug04 Jul05     (beckman wh)GEROUX FLORENT 122 5.00    
3  SWAMP KING Sep07 Aug17 Jul21     (hiles jeff )CONCEPCION AXEL 122 5.00    
4  EASY WIND (CHI) Aug28 Jul21       (walsh brendan)MORALES EDGAR 120 3.00 22% 3.50    
5  SMOLS Sep06 Aug23 Jul25 Jul11 Jun13 (munoz carlos)TREJOS JOSEPH 120 30.00    
6  VULCAN'S BOOTS Aug28 Aug14 Jul21     (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 12.00    
7  STORM'S WAKE Aug24         (lynch a)JUAREZ NIK 117 4.50 16% 5.30    
8  MY STUBBORN LASSIE Aug31 Jul26       (eurton peter)CURTIS BEN 117 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  SHAKE AND RATTLE Sep13 Aug28 Aug10 Jun22 Jun01 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 120 15.00    
10  EAST VILLAGE Aug29         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 122 15.00 5% 18.70    
 
CD-5   09/28/2025 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($45K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SANT' ANTIMO Jun19 Jun05 May16 Mar29 Mar12 (esquivel jesus)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 5.00 12% 7.10    
2  PAYNTER'S CANVAS Sep11 Aug13 May16 Apr29 Mar23 (lauer michael)ELLIOTT JANE 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
3  TRES SOLES Sep06 Aug01 Jun06 May09 Apr17 (sharp joe)ORTIZ JR 122 2.50    
4  CATEGORY TEN Sep06 Aug02 Jul03 Jun21 May18 (hernande)RODRIGUEZ A 122 6.00 11% 8.10    
5  NOAHS ARK (IRE) Sep11 Aug23 Jun01 Apr26 Mar29 (norris mike)MACHADO LUAN 122 30.00    
6  ICARUS Sep05 Aug08 Jun22 Jun06 May11 (van berg )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 5.00    
7  EMBER Sep11 Aug01 Jun22 Jun05 Apr19 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 6.00 21% 3.80    
8  CANDY NUN Jul10 May17 Feb27 Feb06 Dec14 (lobo h)ROMAN A 122 3.50 26% 2.80    
9  SITTIN ON GO Sep11 Jul13 Jun20 May29 May03 (hartman ch)HERNANDEZ J 122 15.00    
 
CD-6   09/28/2025 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($57K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  YOU BELONG HERE Aug11 Jun14 May26 Apr19   (nihei mic)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 6.00 43% 1.30    
2  BIG ROG Sep12 Aug11 Jul14 Jun22 May30 (king barr)LEPAROUX R 121 12.00    
3  HARBOR PRINCE         (drur)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 121 8.00    
4  KY DO DECLARE Aug28 Aug09 Sep18 Aug31   (hartman chris)CURTIS BEN 121 10.00    
5  MUBAREZ Mar07 Jan15 Nov01     (simms mark )CONCEPCION AXEL 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
6  MAJOR MACK May18 Apr27 Apr04 Mar16 Feb01 (von donn)CEDILLO ABEL 124 12.00    
7  DU MONDE Sep05 Aug16 Aug02 Jul20 Jun05 (hill f)TREJOS JOSEPH 124 12.00    
8  CAMPAIGN TRAIL Jan25 Dec14 Oct23 Sep12 Aug24 (foster eric)TORRES A 121 4.00 5% 19.00    
9  HEPHEPCUTDOWNNETS Aug29 Jul24 Jan03 Nov17 Aug23 (hess b)ORTIZ JR 121 3.50 23% 3.40    
10  MISTER BANDERAS Aug22 Jul13 Jun12 May10 Apr10 (medina rob)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 3.00 11% 8.50    
 
CD-7   09/28/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($150K) Purse ($75K) 2 F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MURIEL SAX Sep08 Aug03 Jun27 Jun06   (bahena i)RODRIGUEZ A 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  LINKED UP         (stewart d)TORRES A 119 12.00    
3  DIVA CALLING Sep12 Apr25       (garcia genaro)CEDILLO ABEL 119 6.00 39% 1.50    
4  RED RAINBOW         (wismer gl)CAMACHO JR 119 20.00    
5  DON'TMINDIFIDO Sep07 Aug03       (casse mark)MACHADO LUAN 119 4.50 12% 7.10    
6  PRACTICALLY FAMOUS Aug24 Aug03 Jun06     (lynch a)JUAREZ NIK 119 4.00 25% 2.90    
7  TIZMATIC         (walden will)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 15.00    
8  GRAZIE PREGO Aug30 Aug01       (stall albe)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00 ★    
9  BECTIVE ABBEY         (tomlinson mi)TORRES A 119 15.00    
10  MARE'S MUSIC         (ortiz al)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00    
11  EASY KISS         (asmussen stev)ORTIZ JR 119 6.00    
SCR  BET THE GRAY Aug23         (amoss thom)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00    
 
CD-8   09/28/2025 5610ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KING RUSSELL Aug11 Jun14 May02 Mar15 Feb03 (moquett rona)TORRES A 124 10.00    
2  KUPUNA Jul05 Jun01 May03 Apr05 Feb22 (calhoun wil)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 10.00 17% 4.80    
3  CATCHING FREEDOM Feb15 Jun22 May18 May04 Mar23 (cox h)ORTIZ JR 122 3.00 ★    
4  NOT THIS BOY Aug03 Jun14 May02 Aug11 Jul04 (cowans wil)HERNANDEZ J 122 1.20 44% 1.30    
5  MOONLIGHT Jul05 May02 Mar16 Feb15 Jan04 (block chri)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.00    
6  THIS IS USCAR Aug10 Jul05 May26 May02 Apr07 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 122 4.50    
 
CD-9   09/28/2025 5610ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($134K) 3 ALL PT- 4:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  INNATELY GOOD Sep10 Aug18 Jul26 Jun28 Jun15 (goodwin g)JUAREZ NIK 118 15.00    
2  SHOW OF FORCE Aug22 Jul26 Jun28 Jun01 Oct05 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00    
3  MESERO Sep06 Aug02 May31 Apr12 Nov08 (romans dal)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.00 ★    
4  DAY AND AGE Sep04 Aug03 Jul18 Jun13 Apr26 (casse mark)ORTIZ JR 118 2.50 28% 2.60    
5  COCO COOL Feb01 Dec06 Sep29 Aug25   (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
6  FOLIGNO Aug18 Jul10 May11 Mar18 Jan20 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 3.50 45% 1.20    
7  JUST A FAIR SHAKE Sep06 Aug22 Aug03 Jun14 May17 (mckenzie da)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 10.00    
8  OPTICAL Sep20 Aug09 Jul24 Jun15 May23 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
9  MISSION IMPROBABLE Aug25 Jan31 Oct07 Sep25 Jul02 (brisset rodolp)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00    
 
CD-10   09/28/2025 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 5:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  INCREDIBOLT Aug22         (mott riley)TORRES A 119 4.50 34% 2.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of SAPPHIRE SPITFIRE by AWESOME AGAIN)
2  CARSON STREET Sep04         (walsh brendan)MORALES EDGAR 119 6.00 14% 5.90    
  (by STREET SENSE out of MIZ KELLA by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
SCR  TIME TO STRIKE Aug10 Jul12       (casse mark)ORTIZ JR 119 5.00    
  (by STRIKE GOLD out of TIME TO GET LUCKY by SOMETHINGFABULOUS)
4  SAUDI PANTHER         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of CRIMSON AND GOLD by DISTORTED HUMOR)
5  GRACED         (sweezey kent)MACHADO LUAN 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by DISTANT VIEW out of UFFIZI (ARG) by CIPAYO (ARG))
6  SARTORIAL         (arnold george )SAEZ GABRIEL 119 12.00    
  (by CHARISMATIC out of ACCESSORY by ROYAL ACADEMY)
7  VAPORETTI Aug24         (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 31% 2.20    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of LIDO by STREET CRY)
8  MOUNTAIN GRANDEUR         (kenneally eddie)CURTIS BEN 119 10.00    
  (by MAXFIELD out of ROVENNA by VRONSKY)
9  LARGE RISK         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 6.00    
  (by VOLATILE out of ANABRANCH by CONGAREE)
10  WICKED GUN Aug24 Jul19       (asmussen st)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 10.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of MAYBE WICKED by MIZZEN MAST)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.