Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Wednesday - June 18, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (5/3/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/3/6)-(5/3/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/3/6)-(5/3/6)-(5/3/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/3/6)-(6/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (5/3/6)-(6/3)-(7/4/5) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
CD-2   WIN (6/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/3)-(6/1/3) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (6/3)-(6/1/3)-(6/1/3) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (6/3)-(7/4/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (6/3)-(7/4/5)-(10/2/7/9/3) 30 $1.00 $30.00 
CD-3   WIN (7/4/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/4/5)-(7/4/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/4/5)-(7/4/5)-(7/4/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/4/5)-(10/2/7/9/3) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (7/4/5)-(10/2/7/9/3)-(10/1/9/7) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-4   WIN (10/2/7/9/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/2/7/9/3)-(10/2/7/9/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/2/7/9/3)-(10/2/7/9/3)-(10/2/7/9/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (10/2/7/9/3)-(10/1/9/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (10/2/7/9/3)-(10/1/9/7)-(2/8/6/5/3) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-5   WIN (10/1/9/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (10/1/9/7)-(10/1/9/7/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (10/1/9/7)-(10/1/9/7/4)-(10/1/9/7/4) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (10/1/9/7)-(2/8/6/5/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (10/1/9/7)-(2/8/6/5/3)-(4/7/5) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-6   WIN (2/8/6/5/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/8/6/5/3)-(2/8/6/5/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/8/6/5/3)-(2/8/6/5/3)-(2/8/6/5/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/8/6/5/3)-(4/7/5) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (2/8/6/5/3)-(4/7/5)-(4/3/6) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CD-7   WIN (4/7/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/7/5)-(4/7/5/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (4/7/5)-(4/7/5/3)-(4/7/5/3) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (4/7/5)-(4/3/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/7/5)-(4/3/6)-(12/7/3/9/11) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CD-8   WIN (4/3/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/3/6)-(4/3/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/3/6)-(4/3/6)-(4/3/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/3/6)-(12/7/3/9/11) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
CD-9   WIN (12/7/3/9/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (12/7/3/9/11)-(12/7/3/9/11) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (12/7/3/9/11)-(12/7/3/9/11)-(12/7/3/9/11) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   06/18/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($57K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SPOTAWAY May08 Mar23 Feb15 Jan03   (moquett ronald)ORTIZ L 118 2.50    
2  SWEET STAR May29 May17 May05 Apr09 Feb28 (bahena ismael)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 12.00    
3  BROOKLYNN DREW May17 Apr19 Mar29 Feb23 Mar16 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 123 3.50 25% 2.90    
4  NURSEKRINGLEDANCES May29 Mar29 Feb28 Feb02 Jan18 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 123 10.00    
5  SWEET NOTE May22 Mar07 Jan01 Nov30 Oct27 (walsh brendan)MORALES EDGAR 118 2.00 46% 1.20    
6  UNHIDDEN GEM (IRE) May15 Apr16 Oct20 Sep11 Aug22 (stall albe)HERNANDEZ J 123 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  MUSICAL PRAYER Apr04 Mar07 Feb03 Dec13 Aug15 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 123 4.00    
 
CD-2   06/18/2025 3300ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($67K) 2 F PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JABOSS         (davis christop)ORTIZ L 119 5.00 ★    
SCR  CHARCOAL QUEEN         (west w)TORRES A 119 10.00    
3  LITTLE TINKER ELLE May25         (sweezey ken)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
4  DRAGON NAVY Apr06         (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 119 4.00    
5  ESTRELLA SILVER Apr25 Apr06       (acevedo isr)FIGUEROA SERGIO 119 4.50    
6  GIVEMETHEBEAT Apr30 Apr06       (hancock jo)HUSBANDS J 114 3.00 57% 0.80    
7  TOPIC THUNDER         (kenneally eddie)CURTIS BEN 119 5.00    
SCR  DIABLO SHIRAZ         (ennis john)GRAHAM J 119 15.00    
SCR  NUTS AND BOLTS         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00    
 
CD-3   06/18/2025 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($12.5K) Purse ($60K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  HOLIDAY HOUSE May21 Apr24 Apr16 Mar21 Feb27 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00    
2  TURN UP THE TREES May16 May06 Dec27 Dec06 Nov22 (jacobson )TORRES A 120 3.00    
3  COWAN May25 Apr04 Apr27 Mar03 Feb19 (jacobson david)ORTIZ L 118 2.50    
4  BORN FLAWLESS May29 May02 Apr19 Mar15 Feb17 (vance d)LANERIE J 120 10.00 22% 3.70    
5  MISTER KELLY May25 May06 Mar23 Feb23 Dec29 (winebaug)RODRIGUEZ A 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
6  BUSK May25 May05 Apr11 Mar21 Mar08 (chavez manue)BARBOSA CARLOS 123 1.80    
7  SHAPE NOTE May17 Apr12 Mar13 Feb21 Feb01 (wiggins lo)HERNANDEZ J 120 5.00 24% 3.20    
 
CD-4   06/18/2025 3630ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($62K) 2 F PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  IT AIN'T LIKE THAT May31         (esquivel je)GUTIERREZ MARIO 119 2.50    
2  NAME DROPPER         (hamm timothy)TORRES A 119 12.00 17% 4.80    
3  SUPER PACHI Jun05 May15 Apr23     (anderson cori)CANUTO THIAGO 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
4  DIAMOND N DRESS May31         (chap)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 119 4.00    
SCR  UNFAITHFUL ROSE         (west w)BEJARANO R 119 15.00    
6  CHEEKWOOD May08         (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00    
7  LAW AND MILLOY Jun05         (meah m)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 8.00 16% 5.50    
8  NONSTOP VINO Jun01         (ennis john)GRAHAM J 119 12.00    
9  LIGHT MY FLAME         (melton chris)CEDILLO ABEL 119 10.00 15% 5.50    
10  CINNAMON SUGAR (IRE) May25 Apr25 Apr11     (hancock a)ORTIZ L 119 3.00 27% 2.80    
11  CAROOM'S CROUPIER May22 May08       (pomier chasey)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00    
 
CD-5   06/18/2025 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SCARLETTA CARPETTA Apr24         (mott riley)TORRES A 118 2.50 20% 4.00    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of SCARLETT MADELEINE by SMART STRIKE)
2  UNION ROSE         (cowans william)MACHADO LUAN 118 12.00    
  (by WAR OF WILL out of QUEEN OF ROSES by ANIMAL KINGDOM)
3  HIGH SOUTH May17         (arnold ge)TORRES A 118 10.00    
  (by HIGHTAIL out of SOUTHERN DYNAMO by DYNAFORMER)
4  TWO TURNTABLES Jul28 Jun21       (maker michael )ORTIZ L 118 4.00 ★    
  (by STREET BOSS out of BETWIXT by EMPIRE MAKER)
5  VICTORY WALTZ Jul16         (corrigan jim)MURGIA A 118 15.00    
  (by VEKOMA out of VIENNA'S WALTZ by FREUD)
6  PLOT         (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 118 12.00    
  (by BLAME out of SCAPE by WAR FRONT)
7  TAP THE CHAMPAGNE Jun01 Mar30 Feb24 Jan03 Nov18 (matejka )RODRIGUEZ A 125 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TAPIT out of CHAMPAGNE ROYALE by FRENCH DEPUTY)
8  RADIANCE (VEN) Apr24         (arnold george)MORALES EDGAR 118 12.00    
  (by BLAME out of MISS TATTLE TALE by TALE OF THE CAT)
9  HI'IAKA Jun03 May11 Mar21 Mar13 Feb22 (salas felip)GUTIERREZ REYLU 125 10.00 12% 7.40    
  (by MUNNINGS out of HUA MULAN by MALIBU MOON)
10  WITHOUT A POUT (IRE) Feb13 Dec22 Nov02     (baltas ri)LEPAROUX R 118 3.00 47% 1.10    
  (by LOPE DE VEGA out of SEQUINED by STREET CRY (IRE))
SCR  RUN LILY Jun06 May04       (cowans willi)LANDEROS CHRIS 125 12.00    
  (by OUTWORK out of LILLY'S DREAM by WAR CHANT)
 
CD-6   06/18/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($57K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BEEZER Jun04 Apr30 May11 Apr13   (williamson b)BARBOSA CARLOS 125 20.00    
2  WILL BE Mar21 Nov22 Sep08 Feb15 Dec10 (damato phili)TORRES A 123 3.00 34% 1.90    
3  HIGH PROBABILITY Jun07 May18 Apr20 Oct10   (clay pat)RODRIGUEZ A 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
4  PURSE THIEF Jun06 May09 Mar14 Feb26 Jan31 (foster eric)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 8.00    
5  THREE ECHOES May04 Mar16 Feb28 Jan18 Dec06 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 3.50 12% 7.70    
6  AIR OF DEFIANCE May10 Apr12 Jan18 Dec07 Oct04 (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 123 4.50 13% 6.70    
7  CORMAN May21 Apr23 Mar14 Jan12 Dec16 (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 118 5.00    
8  DEVILISH DESIRE May22 May01 Apr06 Mar07 Feb16 (diodoro r)TORRES A 123 6.00 19% 4.20    
9  MOTOWN STAR May13 Jan30 Jan09 Nov30 Sep25 (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00    
 
CD-7   06/18/2025 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($20K) Purse ($76K) 4UP M/F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ABITIBI May24 Apr18 Mar22 Feb27 Jan30 (esquivel gu)GUTIERREZ MARIO 120 8.00    
2  SOMBRA DORADA May23 Apr10 Mar07 Jan16 Nov21 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 120 5.00    
3  PUNCHY GIRL May29 Apr27 Mar23 Mar01 Feb01 (morse rand)ASMUSSEN J 120 4.00 ★    
4  DE' ANS EIGHTY May29 Apr23 Feb01 Dec12 Nov15 (diodoro r)TORRES A 120 3.50 48% 1.10    
SCR  GHOSTLY NIGHT May10 Apr05 Mar07 Jan31 Jan05 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 118 8.00 8% 11.00    
6  VINOS ANGEL May26 Apr26 Mar26 Mar01 Feb06 (bahena ismael)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 4.50    
7  LITTLE BLAZE May29 May02 Apr19 Mar08 Mar01 (asmussen steve)ORTIZ L 118 3.00 17% 4.80    
 
CD-8   06/18/2025 5280ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LUCKY SPEECH Apr26 Oct17 Aug29 Jul27 Jun15 (sharp joe)MORALES EDGAR 122 3.50    
2  WATCH THIS BIRDIE Dec21 Nov15 Oct17 Sep11 Aug14 (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 122 4.00    
3  PHAROAH'S WINE May26 Apr25 Mar15 Nov29 Oct25 (romans dale)LANERIE J 124 2.00 34% 2.00    
4  SHE'S LOOKIN LUCKY Nov28 Nov15 Oct17 Sep05 Aug04 (shirer mat)HERNANDEZ J 122 2.50 40% 1.50    
5  SABALENKA Apr25 Mar18 Feb16 Oct13 Aug29 (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 122 5.00    
6  HAMWOOD FLIER (IRE) Apr26 Jan26 Jan28 Dec03 Nov05 (eurton peter)BEJARANO R 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-9   06/18/2025 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($57K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GOLD GUNNER May25         (pomier chasey )SAEZ GABRIEL 118 30.00    
SCR  SNOOK Nov02 Sep22       (forster t)LANERIE J 124 5.00    
3  TAPAKENA Jun08 May15 Apr26 Mar23 Apr06 (garcia gena)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 8.00 15% 5.50    
4  ONE DESTINATION May26         (torres c)RODRIGUEZ A 118 20.00    
5  KEEPING THE FAITH Jun04 May10       (hill f)MONCADA IRVING 113 15.00    
6  FLAMBEAU Oct12 Sep15       (schultz linds)MORALES EDGAR 118 12.00    
7  HELM PLACE May16 Apr11 Feb15     (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 118 3.00 16% 5.30    
SCR  GUARDIAN May30 Nov01       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.50    
9  OPTIMISTIC INCOME         (moger jr)BEJARANO R 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
10  SPY May30 May08 Mar01     (mcso)FRANCA ERIELTUN 124 30.00    
11  SUPER SNOOP Jun01 Feb21 Jan24 Nov20 Nov01 (pitts helen)ROCCO S 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
12  HARBE May03 Mar01 Feb08     (crichton roh)TORRES A 118 4.00 47% 1.10    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.