Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Saratoga
Thursday - August 14, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

SAR-1   WIN (3/2/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/2/1)-(3/2/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/2/1)-(3/2/1)-(3/2/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/2/1)-(1/2/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/2/1)-(1/2/6)-(4/6/7) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
SAR-2   WIN (1/2/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/2/6)-(1/2/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/2/6)-(1/2/6)-(1/2/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/2/6)-(4/6/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/2/6)-(4/6/7)-(2/1/6) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
SAR-3   WIN (4/6/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/6/7)-(4/6/2/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (4/6/7)-(4/6/2/7)-(4/6/2/7) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (4/6/7)-(2/1/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/6/7)-(2/1/6)-(3/9/7) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
SAR-4   WIN (2/1/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/1/6)-(2/1/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/1/6)-(2/1/6)-(2/1/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/1/6)-(3/9/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/1/6)-(3/9/7)-(7/3) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
SAR-5   WIN (3/9/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/9/7)-(3/1/2/9/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/9/7)-(3/1/2/9/7)-(3/1/2/9/7) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (3/9/7)-(7/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (3/9/7)-(7/3)-(5/2/8) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
SAR-6   WIN (7/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (7/3)-(7/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (7/3)-(5/2/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (7/3)-(5/2/8)-(9/1/10/7) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
SAR-7   WIN (5/2/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/2/8)-(5/2/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/2/8)-(5/2/8)-(5/2/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/2/8)-(9/1/10/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/2/8)-(9/1/10/7)-(1/9) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
SAR-8   WIN (9/1/10/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/1/10/7)-(9/1/10/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/1/10/7)-(9/1/10/7)-(9/1/10/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (9/1/10/7)-(1/9) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (9/1/10/7)-(1/9)-(13/3/8/11/2) 40 $1.00 $40.00 
SAR-9   WIN (1/9) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/9)-(1/9) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (1/9)-(13/3/8/11/2) 10 $1.00 $10.00 
SAR-10   WIN (13/3/8/11/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (13/3/8/11/2)-(13/3/8/11/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (13/3/8/11/2)-(13/3/8/11/2)-(13/3/8/11/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
SAR-1   08/14/2025 5940ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
STONE COLD KELLY Jul12 Jun15 May02 Mar22 Feb27 (lawrence james)LEZCANO JOSE 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by LAOBAN out of FLY THE FLAG by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
BON VIVANT Jul11 May10 Mar16     (joseph saffie )ORTIZ L 118 4.00 24% 3.20    
  (by UNION RAGS out of SIMPLY CONFECTION by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
DANZIT Jun15 Apr14       (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 124 1.80 46% 1.20    
  (by TAPIT out of DANZATRICE by DUNKIRK)
RAGHBA Jul10 Jun05 May02 Mar02 Jan12 (pletcher todd)VELAZQUEZ R 118 4.50    
  (by CURLIN out of TAKREES by DAAHER)
GREEN JOBS Jul18 Jun05 Jan19 Nov14   (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 118 5.00    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of GENTLE RULER by COLONEL JOHN)
ABSOLUTE HONOR Jul10 Jun06 Mar16     (joseph s)SANTANA JR 118 3.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of ELUSIVE CHECKERS by QUALITY ROAD)
 
SAR-2   08/14/2025 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($48K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GOLDEN SYMPHONY Jun22 May23 May01 Mar07 Dec27 (cox h)FRANCO MANUEL 124 1.60 51% 1.00    
TIZMARKUS Jul18 Jun21 May29 Apr27 Apr19 (casse no)SANTANA JR 124 3.00 16% 5.30    
FIRST TRUMPET Jul21 Jun19 May23 May08 Apr10 (delauro edward)ROSARIO JOEL 124 15.00    
CONFABULATION Aug03 Jan23 Dec28 Nov29 Nov07 (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 124 2.00    
RIYADH MOON Aug03 Jun15 May31 Dec21 Apr27 (ryan s)CAMACHO SAMY 124 8.00    
HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPS Jun08 May10 Mar14 Feb08 Jan11 (rodrig)MARAGH RAMSAY 124 6.00 5% 19.00    
 
SAR-3   08/14/2025 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
EXTRAORDINARY ONE (GB) Jul13 Jun20 Jun03 May05 Sep07 (davis d)DAVIS KATIE 119 20.00    
  (by MAYSON out of UTRINQUE PARATUS by SEA THE MOON)
IN THE DARK Jul05         (barker edward )ROSARIO JOEL 119 3.50    
  (by AIR FORCE BLUE out of SHE'S RIGHT AGAIN by DISCREETLY MINE)
HELLACIOUS Jul18         (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 119 4.50    
  (by VIOLENCE out of BUSY BEV by NOT FOR LOVE)
OUR STARRY NIGHT Jun15 May08       (bauer a)CANCEL ERIC 119 2.00 46% 1.20    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of BERNCREDIT by BERNSTEIN)
LEADING ROLE Jun22 May30 Jun23     (morey e)DAVIS DYLAN 119 6.00    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of WILD SILK by STREET SENSE)
CUANDO Jul16 Jun20 May15 Apr19 Feb27 (levine bruce)CARMOUCHE K 124 2.50 24% 3.10    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of FOX HUNT by SAINT LIAM)
LOUGH CURRANE Jan18 Aug30 Aug03     (terranova p)SAEZ LUIS 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by WIN WIN WIN out of BRENNAN by FORESTRY)
SCR  DR. INSEL Oct12         (kantarmaci il)FRANCO MANUEL 119 8.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of STEIDLE by PETIONVILLE)
 
SAR-4   08/14/2025 4620ft DIRT RC6 SLOPPY Optional Claiming ($50K) Purse ($63K) 3 ALL PT- 2:52
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MAKES SENSE Jul20 Jun15 May17 Mar29   (brown r)SAEZ LUIS 122 6.00 31% 2.20    
RANGER BATTALION Jul12 May08 Mar26 Feb08 Jan25 (rice linda)ORTIZ L 122 3.50 32% 2.10    
SCR  TACTICAL TRACKSTAR Jul17 Apr25       (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 122 4.50    
BOB'S CARROT Jun22 May18 Jun20 May16   (asmussen steven)CARMOUCHE K 122 4.50    
BEAR CLAW NECKLACE May17 Mar09 Dec01 Nov02   (joseph saffie)ORTIZ JR 120 4.00    
AERO STAR Jul16 Apr18 Mar27 Jan17 Nov29 (potts wa)SANTANA JR 122 6.00 12% 7.60    
SHIFTY GOLD Jul19 May25 Mar16 Jan31 Dec15 (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 122 4.00    
 
SAR-5   08/14/2025 5280ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($17.5K) Purse ($36K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
STILL A SOLDIER Jul06 Jan25 Oct15 May10 Mar31 (antonacc)SANTANA JR 125 3.00    
TRUE CONNECTION Jul25 Jun14 Apr05 Mar02 Feb06 (cox h)FRANCO MANUEL 125 3.50    
DARK VECTOR Jan13 Dec28 Dec02 Oct26 Aug25 (brion keri)ORTIZ JR 125 4.00 75% 0.30    
DARK MAGIC Jun21 Jun06 Sep21 Aug30   (rice linda)ALVARADO JUNIOR 120 12.00    
LANDAUER Jul24 Jun28 May18 Apr19 Apr04 (sciacca ga)RIVERA R 125 15.00    
GOTTA GUY Jul25 May25 Feb09 Nov01 Sep25 (sciacca gary)ORTIZ L 120 4.50    
ALWAYS BE SMART Jul18 Jun08 May17 Mar23 Feb10 (rodriguez rudy)LEZCANO JOSE 125 8.00 5% 19.00    
ULTIMATE STRIKE Jul25 Jun25 Jun13 May29 Mar02 (casse w)DAVIS DYLAN 125 8.00    
BURN RUBBER Jan02 Dec15 Oct31 Oct04   (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 125 15.00 5% 19.00    
 
SAR-6   08/14/2025 3630ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 2 ALL PT- 4:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  DONEGAL NOW         (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 119 10.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of THE NOW CROWD by TIZNOW)
BELGIAN         (weaver georg)CASTELLANO J 119 8.00    
  (by CANDY RIDE (ARG) out of ANGEL GIFT by ALLEN'S PROSPECT)
THROCKMORTON Jul12         (d'angelo fra)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.50 24% 3.20    
  (by CARACARO out of WHATAROCKET by GOLDENCENTS)
SCR  GYPSY ART         (ward wesl)DETTORI LANFRANCO 119 10.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of THE GIRL HERSELF by AMERICAN PHAROAH)
SCR  SCHWARZENEGGER         (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 119 1.60    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of SOOTHSAYING by LEMON DROP KID)
SCR  HAWKEYE STATE         (summers )ELLINGWOOD A 119 30.00    
  (by ROCK YOUR WORLD out of KRISTELLA by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
AUGUSTINIAN Jul13 Jun20       (casse mark)DAVIS DYLAN 119 3.50 54% 0.80    
  (by GALILEAN out of ROYALE MICHELE by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
SILVER SNIPER         (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 119 15.00    
  (by SILVER STATE out of NAUGHTY SISTER by ARCHARCHARCH)
SCR  GREEN SCREEN         (motion grah)FRANCO MANUEL 119 8.00    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of PENJADE by AIR CHIEF MARSHAL)
SCR  PEACE NEGOTIATOR         (zito ni)ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 119 20.00    
  (by WAR OF WILL out of INTELYHENTE by SMART STRIKE)
SCR  GO GRACE GO         (ward a)ESPINOZA V 116 8.00    
  (by SEFAPIANO out of MADEMOISELLE D by PROUD TRUTH)
SCR  IT'S OUR TIME         (amoss m)RIDER TBA 119 4.00    
  (by SEEKING THE GOLD out of LEO'S LUCKY LADY by SEATTLE SLEW)
SCR  SANTINA         (ward a)ESPINOZA V 116 4.50    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of SANTA GUAPA by EMPIRE MAKER)
 
SAR-7   08/14/2025 5280ft DIRT RC11 SLOPPY New York Stallion Series Purse ($150K) 3 ALL PT- 4:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  COACH CASE Jul20 Jun04 Apr25     (clement miguel)DAVIS DYLAN 120 6.00    
  (by SLUMBER out of INTO THE SOUTH by INTO MISCHIEF)
BUTTAH Jul14 May17 Apr11 Mar23 Feb23 (sciacca gary)LUZZI J 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by LEOFRIC out of SALTY LITTLE SIS by CHIEF SEATTLE)
SCR  FRIEND OFTHE DEVIL Jun21 Apr25 Dec15 Oct31 Sep02 (martin )ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 124 1.40    
  (by HONEST MISCHIEF out of FABULEUX by BODEMEISTER)
RIVER OF TIME Jun21 Apr26 Apr04 Mar06 Feb08 (summers cha)ALVARADO JUNIOR 120 8.00    
  (by FOG OF WAR out of PASSAGE OF TIME by EL CORREDOR)
GEORGE BRIGGS Mar01 Nov03       (brown c)ORTIZ JR 120 1.60 72% 0.40    
  (by FOG OF WAR out of BAMBOISELLE by MUHTATHIR)
CAST A COIN Jul01 Jun02 May19 Nov18 Oct16 (falk jacqueline)CANCEL ERIC 124 30.00    
  (by CENTRAL BANKER out of LIGHT THE DYNAMITE by INTO MISCHIEF)
I'M DUE Jul17 Jun21 May03 Mar29 Mar08 (atras ro)SANTANA JR 120 15.00    
  (by WAR DANCER out of CANDELABRA by PURGE)
MOE EIGHTY EIGHT Jul17 Jun28 Jun04     (ortiz ale)ROSARIO JOEL 120 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by SOLOMINI out of AUTUMN ASH by TAPIT)
 
SAR-8   08/14/2025 4620ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($38K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
NANTZ Jul27 Jun28 May01 Aug10   (rice lin)SANTANA JR 119 6.00 8% 11.80    
SEEKER'S HOPE Jun27 May18 Mar26 Feb12 Jan11 (hennig mark)CARMOUCHE K 119 15.00    
SCR  GREY ACE Jul24 Jun26 Dec28 Nov29 Oct26 (friedman mitch)LUZZI J 119 10.00    
SCR  FREEDOM MAKER Jul20 Jun15 May17 Mar14 Dec04 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 124 3.50    
NICE TRY RILEY Apr05 Feb15       (bartkowski lisa)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00    
LEVITATING Jun01 May10 Mar28 Feb01 Nov08 (amoss m)ORTIZ L 119 5.00    
STANLEY CAT Jul24 Jul11 Jun05 May18 Apr06 (contes)MARAGH RAMSAY 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
TOMORROW'S WISH Jun27 May04 Dec27 Nov30 Oct05 (donk david)VELAZQUEZ R 124 8.00    
ROCK CONCERT         (cox h)FRANCO MANUEL 119 6.00 56% 0.80    
10  PREPOSITION Jul20 Jun13 May18 Sep28 Aug24 (asmussen stev)ORTIZ JR 119 4.00 7% 12.80    
 
SAR-9   08/14/2025 5610ft DIRT RC6 SLOPPY Optional Claiming ($40K) Purse ($75K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BRIT'S WIT Jul17 May24 Feb15 Jan18 Nov29 (maker michael )ROSARIO JOEL 125 8.00 48% 1.10    
SCR  HERO'S MEDAL Aug03 Jul05 Jun26 May10 Mar22 (kantarmaci ilkay)RIDER TBA 125 8.00    
SCR  HEATHGUARD Feb08 Jan18 Nov29 Nov02 Sep19 (lerman )ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 125 10.00    
SCR  ENLIGHTEN Jul17 Mar29 Mar01 Jan04 Nov30 (morley t)SANTANA JR 125 1.80    
SCR  GEM MINT TEN Jul17 Jun04 May11 Nov08 Oct12 (handal)MARAGH RAMSAY 125 12.00    
FINAL DENILE Jul17 Jun19 Apr05 Mar15 Feb22 (de horacio)CARMOUCHE K 125 10.00    
SCR  MO KREESA Jun28 Jun04 May18 Apr11 Nov15 (hennig mark)VELAZQUEZ R 120 15.00    
SCR  STEADFAST RESOLVE Jul19 Apr24 Feb01 Nov02 Oct05 (weaver george)ORTIZ JR 125 3.50    
SCR  FREDO Jul17 Jun19 May22 Apr27 Apr11 (sano antonio)SAEZ LUIS 125 8.00    
HEDGE THE RISK Jul26 Jun29 Jul13 Sep16 Aug06 (sharp joe)DAVIS DYLAN 125 6.00 18% 4.60    
SCR  FLAT ON Jul17 Jul03 Apr12 Oct10 Sep25 (rodriguez r)RIDER TBA 125 5.00    
SCR  INDY MAGIC Jul17 Jun27 May23 Apr12 Mar29 (david a)SAEZ LUIS 125 1.60    
 
SAR-10   08/14/2025 5610ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  WIND DANCER Jul19 Jun28 May10 Jan24 Jan02 (donk david)DAVIS DYLAN 124 10.00    
MONOMOYS PARTNER Aug01 Jul13 Jun21 May25 May11 (chich)HERNANDEZ OMAR 118 50.00 5% 19.00    
MIZTY FOG Jul06         (falcone rober)ORTIZ JR 113 6.00 24% 3.10    
SOLOMINI'S LEGACY Aug01 Jul19 Jun15 May11 Apr23 (ferraro james )LUZZI J 118 30.00    
BLAME IT ON K J Jul17         (duggan dav)RIVERA R 118 15.00    
SCR  BLUE PILL Jul19 Jun27 Jun04 May25 May10 (ferrar)MARAGH RAMSAY 118 20.00    
SCR  NAGUILE Jul19         (clement miguel)ROSARIO JOEL 118 2.00    
SOLO DANCING Jul16 Jun13       (hennig mark)DAVIS KATIE 118 12.00 10% 9.10    
UNCLE BARRIE Aug01 Jul13 Jul05 Jun15 May11 (metivier)GOMEZ ANTONIO 118 50.00    
SCR  DEEMER Jul17 Oct19 Aug30     (devaux cherie)FRANCO MANUEL 118 1.20    
11  YOHEDA MONEY MAKER Jul28 Jun30 Jun16 Jun02 May13 (gutierrez l)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 30.00 5% 19.00    
12  CARLIN CONTENTION Jul17 May23 May04 Apr19   (ryerson t)RIDER TBA 118 6.00    
13  PRINCE OF DANCE Jul17 Jun14       (englehart ch)CASTELLANO J 124 2.50 42% 1.40    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.