Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Saturday - July 05, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (2/5/6/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/5/6/7)-(2/5/6/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/5/6/7)-(2/5/6/7)-(2/5/6/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/5/6/7)-(2/7/10/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (2/5/6/7)-(2/7/10/1)-(3/7/2/5) 64 $0.50 $32.00 
ELP-2   WIN (2/7/10/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/7/10/1)-(2/7/10/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/7/10/1)-(2/7/10/1)-(2/7/10/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/7/10/1)-(3/7/2/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (2/7/10/1)-(3/7/2/5)-(2/7/8/9) 64 $0.50 $32.00 
ELP-3   WIN (3/7/2/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/7/2/5)-(3/7/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/7/2/5)-(3/7/2/5)-(3/7/2/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/7/2/5)-(2/7/8/9) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (3/7/2/5)-(2/7/8/9)-(8/2/1/7) 64 $0.50 $32.00 
ELP-4   WIN (2/7/8/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/7/8/9)-(2/7/8/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/7/8/9)-(2/7/8/9)-(2/7/8/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/7/8/9)-(8/2/1/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (2/7/8/9)-(8/2/1/7)-(3/5/9/2/6) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
ELP-5   WIN (8/2/1/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/2/1/7)-(8/2/1/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/2/1/7)-(8/2/1/7)-(8/2/1/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/2/1/7)-(3/5/9/2/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (8/2/1/7)-(3/5/9/2/6)-(5/10/7/4/2) 100 $0.50 $300 
ELP-6   WIN (3/5/9/2/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/5/9/2/6)-(3/5/9/2/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/5/9/2/6)-(3/5/9/2/6)-(3/5/9/2/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (3/5/9/2/6)-(5/10/7/4/2) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (3/5/9/2/6)-(5/10/7/4/2)-(7/4/5/8) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
ELP-7   WIN (5/10/7/4/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/10/7/4/2)-(5/10/7/4/3/2) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    TRI (5/10/7/4/2)-(5/10/7/4/3/2)-(5/10/7/4/3/2) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
    DD (5/10/7/4/2)-(7/4/5/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (5/10/7/4/2)-(7/4/5/8)-(8/6/5/3/4) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
ELP-8   WIN (7/4/5/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/4/5/8)-(7/4/5/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/4/5/8)-(7/4/5/8)-(7/4/5/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/4/5/8)-(8/6/5/3/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
ELP-9   WIN (8/6/5/3/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/6/5/3/4)-(8/6/5/3/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/6/5/3/4)-(8/6/5/3/4)-(8/6/5/3/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   07/05/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($40K) 3UP ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  VIX Jun13 May10 Apr17     (hill f)GUTIERREZ MARIO 120 12.00    
2  SHIP SHIP HOORAY Jun06 May18 Apr08 Feb08 Jan04 (danner kels)CONCEPCION AXEL 120 1.80 65% 0.50    
3  GALANTINI Dec14 Nov01 Sep12     (lynch a)JUAREZ NIK 120 4.00    
4  MAXIMA May24 Mar22       (mott william)TORRES A 120 3.50    
5  RAVENS DREAM Jun20 Sep28 Aug24     (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 120 6.00 5% 19.00    
6  GUAPO         (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 120 20.00 5% 19.00    
7  KOHOUTEK         (drury thomas)MONCADA IRVING 115 8.00 5% 19.00    
8  SPY Jun18 May30 May08 Mar01   (mcso)FRANCA ERIELTUN 124 10.00    
 
ELP-2   07/05/2025 4290ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHEZALITTLESTINKER Dec19 Oct10 Sep14 Aug19 Jul13 (catalano m)JUAREZ NIK 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of J. QUIRK by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
2  TWILIGHT TEMPO         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 39% 1.60    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of MIDNIGHT BLISS by MIDNIGHT LUTE)
3  BELLS OF MARANELLO         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 5.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of BELIEVE YOU CAN by PROUD CITIZEN)
4  FOOLISH FRONT FIFI May24 Mar21 Mar07 Feb07 Jan18 (hancock l)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 20.00    
  (by COAL FRONT out of FOOLISH PATRIOT by AWESOME PATRIOT)
5  ANGELIC SENSE         (mcpeek g)GRAHAM J 119 12.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of BOLD ANGEL by CAT THIEF)
6  SUMMER ADI May19         (mcvickers )HERNANDEZ N 119 30.00    
  (by SUMMER FRONT out of ADALEE by STREET BOSS)
7  CONTORTED May24 May02 Mar22 Feb15   (amoss m)BEJARANO R 119 6.00 27% 2.80    
  (by DISTORTED HUMOR out of PRINCESS ASH by INDIAN CHARLIE)
SCR  CHACHING CHACHING Jun08 May02 Apr09 Feb23   (kenneally)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 124 3.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of LUCY GOOSEY by INTO MISCHIEF)
SCR  TEXAS QUEEN Jun08 May09       (calhoun will)TORRES A 119 4.50    
  (by SENECA JONES out of ELOQUENT QUEEN by RAJA BABA)
10  PURPLE AND GOLD Jun11 May24 Oct27 Sep13   (esquivel je)GUTIERREZ MARIO 119 12.00 8% 11.80    
  (by ECHO TOWN out of COUNTRY CAFE by LION HEART)
 
ELP-3   07/05/2025 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AMERICAN DEBUTANTE (IRE)         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00    
  (by STARSPANGLEDBANNER out of HEIGHT OF ELEGANCE by GALILEO)
2  HI'IAKA Jun18 Jun03 May11 Mar21 Mar13 (salas felipe)ACHARD ALEX 124 15.00 11% 8.10    
  (by MUNNINGS out of HUA MULAN by MALIBU MOON)
3  MO EXPECTATIONS Jun14         (cox brad )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 1.60 40% 1.50    
  (by UNCLE MO out of HAVISHAM by BERNARDINI)
4  DEAR SCARLETT Jun05 Apr16 Aug05 Jun18   (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 124 10.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of BUTTERNUT BLOOMERS by CURLIN)
5  AGIA MARINA May02 Sep11       (walsh brendan )SHEEHY DANNY 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of HOT CASH by GHOSTZAPPER)
6  GOOD GOING May09 Mar22 Feb01     (devaux cher)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 8.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of GOOD DEED by BROKEN VOW)
7  AURACULOUS Oct11 Aug31 Jul31     (devaux ch)TORRES A 124 3.00 27% 2.70    
  (by UNCLE MO out of BONITA BAY by BERNARDINI)
SCR  LIVIN LA VIDA COCO         (arnold georg)MONCADA IRVING 113 12.00    
  (by VIOLENCE out of TAPASSION by TAPIT)
 
ELP-4   07/05/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($38.75K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SUTHERLAND Jun12 May10 Mar08 Jan24 Dec22 (richard chris)GRAHAM J 124 8.00    
2  NIGHT TIME Apr09 Feb23 Jan03 Dec20 Oct13 (miller peter)TORRES A 122 2.50 57% 0.80    
3  CHRYSO ALOGO May31 May10 Apr09 Jan17 Dec18 (mckeever an)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 12.00    
4  LEND IT TEWMEY Jun04 May02 Mar14 Feb17 Jan26 (amoss thom)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 8.00    
SCR  UNRAPTURED Jun04 May24 May04 Apr15 Apr03 (ciardullo r)LAGUNES GABRIEL 122 20.00    
6  BRIGHT LEAF Jun15 May29 Apr11 Jan24 Jan05 (sims p)BEJARANO R 122 8.00    
7  FAVORITE OUTLAW May16 May01 Mar29 Feb24 Feb03 (crichton ro)GUTIERREZ MARIO 122 3.00 14% 6.20    
8  METALLIC MAN Jun16 May25 Apr24 Apr13 Mar14 (jacobson )TORRES A 124 5.00 5% 18.80    
9  PRETTY FAST May28 Mar15 Jan30 Jan04 Dec13 (foster eric)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-5   07/05/2025 5280ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($104K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IN A JAM Apr29 Mar14 Jan25 Dec14 Nov02 (casse mar)TORRES A 122 5.00 18% 4.50    
2  THE PROCESS May25 Oct03 Aug30 Jul27 Jun13 (devaux che)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.00 22% 3.60    
3  FIDGET Mar02 Jan01 Nov09 Sep08 Aug03 (cox brad )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 122 15.00    
SCR  GOLDEN GLIDER Jun07 May25 Apr24 Mar09 Feb16 (jacobson dav)TORRES A 122 12.00    
5  ALDER May25 May04 Feb23 Jan31 Jan04 (maker michael )SAEZ GABRIEL 122 4.50    
6  GRAND ASPEN May11 Apr11 Mar02 Feb08 Nov29 (logsdon q)GRAHAM J 122 3.50    
7  ASPENITE Jun21 May25 Sep08 Jul13 May31 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
8  MULTITASK Jun01 May01 Mar07 Jan25 Dec28 (harty eoin)BEJARANO R 124 4.00 31% 2.20    
 
ELP-6   07/05/2025 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ANGEL KISS May30 May03 Apr19 Jan31 Jan05 (hartman chri)MONCADA IRVING 117 20.00    
2  SWEET CHABLIS May08 Apr06 Mar12 Feb13 Jan29 (mckeever )TORRES A 122 10.00 12% 7.10    
3  MERCY WARREN May29 Mar28 Jan19 Nov27 Nov08 (sharp joe)TORRES A 122 3.00 19% 4.40    
4  WHERE'S THE WINE Jun13 May15 Mar06 Feb13 Dec12 (antonuik)RODRIGUEZ A 122 4.00    
5  BROUGHTY FERRY Jun15 Apr06 Feb23 Jan20 Nov13 (johnston lane )SAEZ GABRIEL 122 3.50 15% 5.60    
6  BIRDIE ROSE Jun10 May02 Mar22 Feb22 Feb07 (salas marcel)BARBOSA CARLOS 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
7  STORY HOUR May15 Apr30 Feb24 Feb02 Dec06 (medina rob)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 10.00    
8  WINDY BAY Jun13 Oct26 Sep19 Aug19 Jun22 (van th)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 8.00    
9  PENS STREET May15 Apr24 Mar14 Sep29 Sep19 (rice linda)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 4.50 15% 5.90    
 
ELP-7   07/05/2025 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 2 F PT- 3:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MIDNIGHT EVE May15 Apr23       (hancock l)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 30.00    
  (by MIDNIGHT STORM out of CATECAL by WARRIOR'S REWARD)
2  LOVELIEST         (kenneally eddie)JUAREZ NIK 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by SIYOUNI out of LOVELIER by GALILEO)
3  HOLLYBYGOLLY         (brisset rodo)TORRES A 119 5.00 ★    
  (by OLD TRIESTE out of STELLUCHELLA by HONOR GRADES)
4  NONCONSECUTIVETRMS         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.50 8% 10.90    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of ALL AMERICAN GAL by AMERICAN PHAROAH)
5  PURELY ZEN May22 Apr16       (davis christop)DOYLE SOPHIE 119 4.00 36% 1.80    
  (by AUTHENTIC out of ETERNAL PEACE by WAR FRONT)
6  ESSENTIALLY GOLD Apr11         (mcentee paul)BOCACHICA O 119 30.00    
  (by ESSENTIAL QUALITY out of WEB O' GOLD by HARD SPUN)
7  SPICY PRINCESS Jun05         (biancone p)ASMUSSEN J 119 8.00 16% 5.30    
  (by TAPIT out of APACHE PRINCESS by UNUSUAL HEAT)
SCR  STOLEN LUTE Jun10         (casse mar)TORRES A 119 10.00    
  (by MIDNIGHT LUTE out of JUST FABULOUS by INCLUDE)
9  RATHER LATE Jun11 May15       (hancock )RODRIGUEZ A 119 30.00    
  (by VOLATILE out of RATHER BEAUTIFUL by MALIBU MOON)
10  TEARIN'UP MY HEART         (cox brad )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 3.50 18% 4.70    
  (by MIDSHIPMAN out of HEARTFUL by BANDBOX)
11  DIABLO SHIRAZ         (ennis john)GRAHAM J 119 30.00    
  (by DAREDEVIL out of FOREVER VOW by BROKEN VOW)
SCR  MAP OF THE MOON         (danner kels)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 8.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of MALIBU PRIDE by MALIBU MOON)
SCR  RED BERETTA Jul04 May22 Apr30     (douaihy mi)HERNANDEZ N 119 20.00    
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of DONTGETINMYWAY by MACHIAVELLIAN)
14  DREAM CHICK         (kelley a)BEJARANO R 119 20.00    
  (by KEEP DREAMING out of HOP'S PERFECTION by NAVY HOP)
SCR  LOTTA ALPHA         (servis john )TORRES A 119 10.00    
  (by MCKINZIE out of YGRITTE by TAPIT)
SCR  LIZ'S IMAGE         (kelley a)BEJARANO R 119 20.00    
  (by SKIPSHOT out of LIZ C by AIR FORCE BLUE)
 
ELP-8   07/05/2025 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($102K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  CATCHYALATER Jul04 Jun15 Feb23 Jan27 Dec07 (munoz yovan)CONCEPCION AXEL 124 20.00    
2  ANTIQUE SILVER Jun15 May17 Feb01 Jan03 Nov27 (jacobson )CAMACHO JR 122 6.00    
3  OUTRAGEOUSLY Jun05 Mar08 Jan05 Dec01 Nov03 (blair jor)TORRES A 122 4.50    
4  GERLIN'S EMPIRE May08 Mar16 Feb17 Dec21 Nov28 (stewart da)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50 19% 4.40    
5  OUR KEEPSAKE Jun05 Apr26 Apr12 Mar14 Dec27 (nicholl sebast)JUAREZ NIK 122 3.00 15% 5.70    
6  PRINCESS PROUD Jun08 Apr24       (mott william)TORRES A 120 4.00    
7  ON THE BRIDLE May20         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 6.00 32% 2.20    
8  CANDY LOVER May30 May11 Mar01 Jan31 Jan02 (mcgee paul)GARCIA MARTIN 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-9   07/05/2025 5610ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($75K) Purse ($102K) 3 ALL PT- 4:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SING SING Jun07 Apr12 Jul07 Jun06 May01 (casse mar)TORRES A 120 6.00    
2  TREW VIOLENCE Apr30 Nov30 Oct03 Sep04 Jul29 (brisset rodolphe)BEJARANO R 120 30.00    
3  YINZER Jun07 May03 Mar22 Feb15 Jan18 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
4  COVERT LAW Jun12 May26 Apr06 Mar12 Feb07 (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
5  ANEGADA Jun07 Apr23 Mar28 Mar08 Nov30 (maker michael )SAEZ GABRIEL 120 4.00 10% 9.20    
6  SOME PERFORMANCE Jun08 May02       (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.50 34% 2.00    
SCR  FOND FAREWELL Jun06         (walden william)JUAREZ NIK 120 4.50    
8  TICKLED QUIST May18 Apr25 Mar21 Feb21 Dec01 (cox brad )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 120 3.00 34% 2.00    
9  THE HIDDEN CHAMBER Jun13 May26 Mar22 Feb01 Jan18 (danner kels)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 30.00    
10  THE WARDEN Jun07 May16 Apr11 Feb24 Feb02 (moquett rona)TORRES A 120 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.