Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Charles Town
Saturday - March 25, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

CT-1   WIN (7/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (7/5)-(7/5/1/3/2) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    TRI (7/5)-(7/5/1/3/2)-(7/5/1/3/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/5)-(2/1/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (7/5)-(2/1/7)-(7/4/6) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
CT-2   WIN (2/1/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/1/7)-(2/1/7/5/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/1/7)-(2/1/7/5/4)-(2/1/7/5/4) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (2/1/7)-(7/4/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/1/7)-(7/4/6)-(6/4/1/9) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CT-3   WIN (7/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/4/6)-(7/4/6/8/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/4/6)-(7/4/6/8/5)-(7/4/6/8/5) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (7/4/6)-(6/4/1/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/4/6)-(6/4/1/9)-(1/8/4/2) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CT-4   WIN (6/4/1/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/4/1/9)-(6/4/1/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/4/1/9)-(6/4/1/9)-(6/4/1/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/4/1/9)-(1/8/4/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (6/4/1/9)-(1/8/4/2)-(2/4/9/6/3) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CT-5   WIN (1/8/4/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/8/4/2)-(1/8/4/2/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (1/8/4/2)-(1/8/4/2/3)-(1/8/4/2/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (1/8/4/2)-(2/4/9/6/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/8/4/2)-(2/4/9/6/3)-(4/3/7) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CT-6   WIN (2/4/9/6/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/4/9/6/3)-(2/4/9/6/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/4/9/6/3)-(2/4/9/6/3)-(2/4/9/6/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/4/9/6/3)-(4/3/7) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (2/4/9/6/3)-(4/3/7)-(9/2) 30 $1.00 $30.00 
CT-7   WIN (4/3/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/3/7)-(4/3/7/5/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/3/7)-(4/3/7/5/1)-(4/3/7/5/1) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (4/3/7)-(9/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/3/7)-(9/2)-(9/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CT-8   WIN (9/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (9/2)-(9/2/4/3/7) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    TRI (9/2)-(9/2/4/3/7)-(9/2/4/3/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (9/2)-(9/6) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
CT-9   WIN (9/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (9/6)-(9/6/7/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (9/6)-(9/6/7/8)-(9/6/7/8) 12 $0.50 $6.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
CT-1   03/25/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Maiden Claimer ($5K) Purse ($13.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WICKOSITY Mar19 Mar01 Feb15 Nov22 Oct17 (hillegass alexa)BOCACHICA O 126 3.00    
UNKNOWN AGENDA Feb18 Feb01 Jan22 Jan07 Oct28 (viands gregory)BAEZ M 111 10.00    
OBOY Mar01 Feb09 Dec31 Dec10 Nov27 (demario char)LEWIS M 119 8.00    
POINT US HOME Feb17 Feb03 Jan14 Dec30 Dec09 (jones y)RODRIGUEZ V 118 20.00    
ADARA Feb18 Jan28 Jan07     (viands stace)MARRERO CARLOS 126 1.60 20% 3.90    
CAN'T STOP MAXEY Mar11 Feb16 Dec21     (joy kev)NUNEZ MAURICIO 118 12.00    
CHROME HEIR Feb18 Jan13 Dec08 Nov17 Oct27 (runco jef)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 118 2.50 56% 0.80    
 
CT-2   03/25/2023 2970ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($5K) Purse ($14.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LION OF THE SEA Mar16 Feb10 Jan21 Jan04 Dec16 (grams tim)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 126 3.00 20% 3.90    
BAYTOWN JAKESTER Feb22 Feb04 Jan25 Jan04 Dec16 (viands stacey )ARAUJO DENIS 124 1.20 49% 1.00    
POLITICAL DECISION Mar11 Feb22 Feb02 Dec14 Nov24 (murtaugh j)CECIL Y 124 15.00    
BELIEVEINROCKNROLL Mar05 Jan27 Nov26 Nov06 Oct20 (frock charle)LEWIS M 117 2.50    
FOREVER THE BOSS Mar11 Feb22 Jan25 Jan04 Dec01 (aylor natash)MARRERO CARLOS 122 15.00    
ABOUT TO RAGE Feb22 Oct20 Sep16 Aug20 Jul07 (pickett cr)ALMODOVAR GERALD 124 15.00    
ADIOS SEE YA Feb22 Jan25 Jan04 Dec16 Dec02 (straughn wi)MCKENZIE CONNIE 115 12.00 7% 14.40    
 
CT-3   03/25/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($10K) Purse ($20.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 8:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
DISTORTED SPLENDOR Mar01 Jan21 Nov23 Nov03 Sep21 (stehr josep)RAMGEET R 126 20.00    
SCR  GOT YOUR NUMBER Feb10 Jan28 Jan07 Dec08 Nov02 (tobin l)LARROSA G 126 15.00    
SCR  DECISIVE CAUSE Feb16 Feb04 Jan19 Jan12 Dec08 (shanle)LOPEZ EDUARDO 124 8.00    
DIAL HER Feb04 Jan12 Nov17 Oct13 Sep14 (runco c)CULLUM W 124 2.50 24% 3.10    
VILLAREGGIA Mar02 Feb20 Jan29 Dec18 Dec02 (cash norman )LEWIS M 117 12.00    
GRACE'S SECRET Feb09 Jan19 Dec18 Nov19 Oct29 (farrior a)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 124 1.80 6% 15.50    
MIZZEN Mar09 Feb16 Jan27 Dec10 Nov23 (farrior an)LATCHMAN RESHAWN 124 4.00 41% 1.40    
TOUT ENSEMBLE Feb23 Jan19 Dec14 Dec02 Oct14 (viands greg)MENDEZ MARSHALL 124 6.00    
 
CT-4   03/25/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($5K) Purse ($13.3K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
JOHNNY SWISH Mar02 Feb10 Jan21 Dec15 Nov19 (knoblauch-perez)BOCACHICA O 124 8.00 17% 4.90    
AMERICAN ROCKY Mar02 Jan21 Nov16 Oct25 Oct14 (hillegass ale)THORPE DARIUS 124 15.00    
SCR  A FAREWELL YODEL Mar03 Feb10 Jan20 Jan13 Dec16 (hurley jack)CULLUM W 126 15.00 5% 19.00    
POSTED Feb16 Jan13 Dec16 Nov25 Nov10 (schottroffe edwar)CECIL Y 126 5.00 21% 3.80    
STRONG HEART Jan07 Dec13 Nov30 May15 Apr16 (farrior a)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 126 2.50    
SCOOTSCOOT Mar05 Jan13 Dec02 Nov09 Oct22 (handal ray)RIVERA R 111 3.50 30% 2.30    
LET'S GET PHYSICAL Mar03 Feb10 Nov03 Sep29 Aug26 (sanderson )LATCHMAN RESHAWN 126 12.00    
SCR  BEAR'S ESTATE Mar10 Feb02 Jan12 Dec14 Nov26 (knoblauch-pere)RIOS-CONDE A 126 6.00    
BET ON BITZ Mar02 Feb09 Jan20 Dec03 Nov19 (pickett cr)ALMODOVAR GERALD 124 6.00 8% 11.90    
 
CT-5   03/25/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($5K) Purse ($14.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 9:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LEG UP Mar10 Feb25 Feb08 Jan26 Nov30 (brown w)ARAUJO DENIS 124 1.80 21% 3.70    
PONTICELLO Feb16 Nov04 Oct14 Oct05 Sep01 (racanelli m)MENDEZ MARSHALL 122 20.00 16% 5.40    
CHASE LIL ME Feb25 Feb08 Jan13 Nov30 Nov04 (collins tim)RIOS-CONDE A 124 4.50    
MASTER THIS Feb10 Jan25 Jan13 Dec16 Nov25 (butts e)LARROSA G 124 6.00 16% 5.10    
SPECTACULO Feb16 Feb08 Jan07 Nov05 Oct19 (mangual)NUNEZ MAURICIO 124 5.00    
MASTER YOO Mar11 Feb16 Feb02 Jan13 Dec16 (downie lofflin)WOODSON H 124 50.00    
MR. HOSTLER Feb25 Nov04 Oct18 Oct11 Aug17 (collins tim)PELTROCHE F 124 15.00    
AIR MEDAL Mar16 Feb16 Jan19 Dec08 Nov10 (farrior a)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 126 2.50 18% 4.50    
 
CT-6   03/25/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($5K) Purse ($15K) 3UP ALL PT- 9:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  GABBYS BIG NOTION Feb10 Feb04 Dec12 Nov23 Oct21 (duffy sean)RODRIGUEZ V 122 12.00    
SULEMAN Mar04 Feb10 Jan25 Jan05 Dec14 (laguna homero)BOCACHICA O 124 6.00 43% 1.40    
RIGHTEOUS MAN Mar04 Feb15 Jan25 Dec09 Nov12 (kirlew lenwort)RIOS-CONDE A 124 15.00 5% 18.70    
BOOK OF DELANCEY Mar11 Mar04 Feb10 Jan25 Jan19 (hillegass al)LEWIS M 117 4.50 11% 8.00    
BOSSY CAT Mar02 Feb17 Jan18 Jan06 Dec20 (stites flint )THORPE DARIUS 124 5.00    
STAVANGER Mar02 Feb10 Jan19 Dec17 Oct26 (farrior an)LATCHMAN RESHAWN 124 3.50 5% 17.20    
HE CAME TRUE Mar01 Feb01 Jan11 Dec20 Oct28 (graci kimberly )BEATO INOEL 124 4.00    
URBAN WARRIOR Mar04 Feb10 Jan21 Jan04 Dec02 (mangual)NUNEZ MAURICIO 124 12.00    
CHESAPEAKE CHARLIE Mar04 Feb10 Jan20 Dec14 Nov23 (schottroffe)MENDEZ MARSHALL 124 6.00 6% 16.20    
 
CT-7   03/25/2023 2970ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Maiden Claimer ($5K) Purse ($13.3K) 3UP ALL PT-10:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TRICKY STRONG Mar11 Feb16 Feb02 Jan05 Aug20 (dollinger-sthr l)BAEZ M 117 15.00    
SCR  GEM DANCER Mar11 Feb16 Feb10 Aug12 Jul10 (pickett cr)ALMODOVAR GERALD 126 15.00    
BASHDAFLASH Mar11 Jan07 Sep23 Jul15 Jun03 (scott a)NUNEZ MAURICIO 126 1.80 23% 3.40    
STRONG MAGIC Mar11         (mckee cynth)MENDEZ MARSHALL 126 3.50 43% 1.30    
VASY SAYS NYET Mar11 Dec30 Nov11 Oct02   (farrior anthony)CRUZ ANGEL 118 6.00    
BAL ROBINSON Mar09 Feb04 Jan14 Dec09   (shanley mark)CECIL Y 118 20.00    
BABY BULLDOG Mar11 Feb25 Feb04 Jan14 Dec08 (rose j)RODRIGUEZ V 118 3.00 11% 7.90    
SCR  MIMS SECOND CHANCE Mar11 Feb25 Feb04 Jan14 Dec09 (rideout ant)RAMGEET R 118 15.00    
RIP IT Jan27 Dec17 Dec09 Oct30 Sep30 (haughton don)LEWIS M 119 12.00    
 
CT-8   03/25/2023 2970ft DIRT RC10 MUDDY Allowance Purse ($35.1K) 3UP M/F PT-10:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SIENTE LA BRISA Feb18 Jan11 Dec07 Nov11 Oct13 (stehr p)RODRIGUEZ V 122 12.00    
EMBERLY Jan14 Dec14 Oct26 Aug18 Aug04 (brown )LOPEZ EDUARDO 122 4.00 31% 2.20    
WINDSOR'S PLAY Feb08 Jan14 Dec14 Nov30 Nov19 (rideout ant)RAMGEET R 122 6.00    
DIXIE YODELER Feb25 Jan20 Jan06 Nov30 Nov18 (davis rus)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 122 10.00    
LEMONSONDESURPRISE Jan14 Dec07 Nov11 Oct26 Sep22 (mangual)NUNEZ MAURICIO 122 20.00    
TIMETOGETUP Mar10 Feb08 Jan14 Dec14 Oct22 (petty kristy)LARROSA G 122 6.00    
SLEWING Jan14 Dec14 Nov11 Oct26 Jun04 (groves janice)RIOS-CONDE A 122 8.00    
CASTLE TOY Mar11 Feb22 Dec17 Dec02 Nov11 (obed-letts ke)RIVERA JAVIER 120 12.00    
GREAT SPIRIT Mar04 Jul22       (pickett crysta)MONTANO JOSE 120 1.80 45% 1.20    
10  DIVA ROSE Jan18 Dec07 Nov16 Sep28 Aug25 (craig lewis )LEWIS M 115 20.00    
 
CT-9   03/25/2023 4290ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Maiden Claimer ($5K) Purse ($13.3K) 3UP M/F PT-11:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
T J STORM VISION Feb04 Jan13       (hunt jame)HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 124 20.00    
AMERICAN LEGACY Feb15 Jan21 Dec17 Dec02 Nov17 (butts e)CECIL Y 126 30.00    
WHY LEA Mar04 Feb10 Jan21 Dec17 Dec02 (gazzier kri)MENDEZ MARSHALL 124 3.00    
SCR  MIDNIGHT PASS Mar09 Feb24 Jan25 Dec16 Dec03 (tsiamis arthur )RODRIGUEZ V 124 30.00 5% 19.00    
OUR GOLDEN COLLEEN Feb15 Jan21 Jan04 Jun16 May26 (hummer )NUNEZ MAURICIO 124 15.00    
HOLY HIP Mar09 Feb24 Feb15     (jones e)BAEZ M 119 4.50 6% 16.50    
I'M SO EXTRA Mar04 Feb11 Jan14 Dec09 Oct29 (jackson l)CULLUM W 126 5.00    
CREDIT COMMITTEE Feb18 Jan27 Sep23     (runco c)LEWIS M 111 4.00    
CHANTILLY MOON (PER)         (farrior a)BOCACHICA ARNALDO 126 3.50 71% 0.40    
10  PRINCESS MIA ROSE Mar09 Feb15 Jan25 Jan04 Dec02 (aylor natash)MARRERO CARLOS 124 12.00    
SCR  HELLO JAMROCK Mar12 Jan29 Feb06 Jan23 Jan01 (smith valrie)HO WESLEY 126 6.00    
SCR  I HAVE COURAGE Feb20 Dec04 Nov13 Oct23 Oct08 (frock charle)LEWIS M 119 10.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.