Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Monday - July 21, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (6/3/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/3/8)-(6/3/8/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (6/3/8)-(6/3/8/1)-(6/3/8/1) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (6/3/8)-(9/2/4/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/3/8)-(9/2/4/5)-(1/9/6/8) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
ELP-2   WIN (9/2/4/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/2/4/5)-(9/2/4/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/2/4/5)-(9/2/4/5)-(9/2/4/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (9/2/4/5)-(1/9/6/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (9/2/4/5)-(1/9/6/8)-(8/1/4/7/9) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
ELP-3   WIN (1/9/6/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/9/6/8)-(1/9/3/6/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (1/9/6/8)-(1/9/3/6/8)-(1/9/3/6/8) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (1/9/6/8)-(8/1/4/7/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/9/6/8)-(8/1/4/7/9)-(7/6/4/1) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
ELP-4   WIN (8/1/4/7/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/1/4/7/9)-(8/1/4/7/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/1/4/7/9)-(8/1/4/7/9)-(8/1/4/7/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (8/1/4/7/9)-(7/6/4/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (8/1/4/7/9)-(7/6/4/1)-(6/5/2) 60 $0.50 $180 
ELP-5   WIN (7/6/4/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/6/4/1)-(7/6/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/6/4/1)-(7/6/4/1)-(7/6/4/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/6/4/1)-(6/5/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/6/4/1)-(6/5/2)-(3/7/1/4) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
ELP-6   WIN (6/5/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/5/2)-(6/5/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/5/2)-(6/5/2)-(6/5/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/5/2)-(3/7/1/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/5/2)-(3/7/1/4)-(4/1/5) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
ELP-7   WIN (3/7/1/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/7/1/4)-(3/7/1/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/7/1/4)-(3/7/1/4)-(3/7/1/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/7/1/4)-(4/1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/7/1/4)-(4/1/5)-(1/12/3/2/11) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
ELP-8   WIN (4/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/5)-(4/1/5/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (4/1/5)-(4/1/5/8)-(4/1/5/8) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (4/1/5)-(1/12/3/2/11) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
ELP-9   WIN (1/12/3/2/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/12/3/2/11)-(1/12/3/2/11) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/12/3/2/11)-(1/12/3/2/11)-(1/12/3/2/11) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   07/21/2025 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($35K) 3UP M/F PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PAT'SCHROMECOMPASS Jul04 May29 Apr11 Mar13 Oct16 (foley greg)MACHADO LUAN 123 5.00 ★    
SCR  WORD GAME Jun14 May31 Dec13 Oct23 Oct08 (pompell robert)BEJARANO R 118 20.00    
3  AMADORA'S EMPIRE May25 Mar04 Feb08 Jan16 Dec15 (walsh brendan)MORALES EDGAR 118 2.50 25% 3.00    
4  ONMYWAYTOSAVTHDAY Jun26 Jun13 Apr28 Mar07 Jan22 (jacobson )CAMACHO JR 123 12.00    
5  STARLIT SOFI Jun13 May17 Apr29 Mar26 Mar13 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 123 4.50    
6  MAD ABOUT MARIE May09 Apr06 Feb07 Jan19 Sep28 (rice linda)TORRES A 118 3.00 42% 1.40    
7  CATCHING HEAT Apr27 Mar07 Nov29 Nov21 Oct10 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 123 6.00    
8  HEARTS UNITED Jun13 May17 Apr29 Mar21 Feb26 (tomlinson mi)GEROUX FLORENT 118 8.00 6% 15.30    
 
ELP-2   07/21/2025 3630ft TURF RC2 GOOD Mdn Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($44K) 2 ALL PT- 1:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  KING PRINCE         (casse mark)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00    
2  GNOME Jul10         (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 6.00 23% 3.30    
3  JOCK FROST         (davis christop)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 10.00    
4  PROPS         (desormeaux j)TORRES A 119 6.00 5% 18.00    
5  SUPER KICK         (harty eo)RODRIGUEZ A 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
6  EASY WIND (CHI)         (walsh brendan)MORALES EDGAR 119 6.00    
SCR  TIMELY AGENDA         (hamm timoth)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 10.00    
SCR  ORVILLE'S MAP         (stewart d)LEPAROUX R 119 8.00    
9  QUARRY Jun22         (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.00 46% 1.20    
10  DURABLE Jul04         (torres marceli)DOYLE SOPHIE 119 30.00    
11  MO BEACH TIME Jul05         (goodwin n)WILLIAMS JO 119 10.00    
SCR  HAPPY HENNEY Jun18         (hamm timothy)TORRES A 119 10.00    
 
ELP-3   07/21/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($37.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SCHOOL SPIRIT         (cox h)MACHADO LUAN 119 3.50 38% 1.70    
2  SPLIT SUCCESS Jun05 Sep26       (sharp joe)TORRES A 119 4.00    
3  REST OF THE WORLD Jul04 Jun15 Oct25 Sep24   (ennis john)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 6.00 ★    
4  DIVINE WIND Jun14 May15       (arnold george)MORALES EDGAR 119 4.50    
5  TRUTHORCONSEQUENCE Jun15 Jun01 Apr16 Mar14 Feb01 (williams colby)BEJARANO R 119 5.00    
6  ROCKAWAY REEF Jul04 Jun04 May16 Apr09 Mar21 (miller kenny)BARBOSA CARLOS 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
7  SUNSET LINES May24         (arnold geor)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 15.00    
8  FOOLISH FRONT FIFI Jul05 May24 Mar21 Mar07 Feb07 (hancock l)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
9  KISSIN RICHES Jun19 May11 Mar20 Feb15 Jan17 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 119 6.00 32% 2.10    
 
ELP-4   07/21/2025 5280ft TURF RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 2 ALL PT- 2:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FULLEFFORT         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.50 24% 3.10    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of CALLMETHESQUEEZE by AWESOME AGAIN)
2  COLLECTING May23         (mccarthy mic)TORRES A 119 8.00    
  (by COLLECTED out of HEIDI MARIA by ROCKPORT HARBOR)
3  GLOVES OFF         (harty eoin)BEJARANO R 119 8.00    
  (by U S RANGER out of TEASE by CROWD PLEASER)
4  IRISH LAW         (walsh brendan )MACHADO LUAN 119 6.00 10% 8.90    
  (by TIZ THE LAW out of NIMBLE FOOT by DANEHILL DANCER)
5  SPUN LEGACY Jun22         (sharp joe)MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of TIZ A LEGACY by TIZNOW)
6  VULCAN'S BOOTS         (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 8.00    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of SISTAS STROLL by STROLL)
7  MCFASTY         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MITOLE out of WITHYOURPERMISSION by TAKE CHARGE INDY)
8  MAGINNESONTAP         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 25% 2.90    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of GOLDEN BALLAD by GALILEO (ARG))
9  SWAMP KING         (mott riley)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by VICE REGENT out of LA PIBA by LOOKIN AT LUCKY)
10  PIASTRI         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 8.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of BOULE by EXCHANGE RATE)
SCR  HAPPY PRINCE Jun20 May09       (casse mark)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 10.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of HAPPY MOTORING by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
SCR  KING OF HEAT Jun29         (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 8.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of TEPIN THRU LIFE by CURLIN)
SCR  AMERICAN BEAR Jun28 Jun12       (bahena ismael)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 30.00    
  (by AMERICAN DAY out of GO ALI (GB) by ALYDAR)
SCR  MODERATOR May23         (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 119 12.00    
  (by THOUSAND WORDS out of PEACE OPPORTUNITY by POINT OF ENTRY)
 
ELP-5   07/21/2025 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($45K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PRINCESS NY Jun24 May25 May08 Apr11 Feb27 (davis christ)GEROUX FLORENT 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
2  APPEALING ADDIE Jun20 May29 Apr27 Apr04 Mar01 (morse ran)LEPAROUX R 123 6.00    
3  SPYING May28 Apr24 Mar19 Feb15   (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00    
4  WEDDING MARCH Jul06 Oct26 Aug21     (ramirez-rodrigu)VAZQUEZ A 118 8.00 12% 7.20    
5  SPUN UP Jun19 Apr12 Mar04 Jan31 Dec26 (calhoun wi)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00    
6  TAKE CHARGE OMAHA Jun21 May25 Apr24 Mar12   (foster eric)BARBOSA CARLOS 118 2.50 25% 2.90    
7  MALIBU SMART May29 Feb28 Jan19 Dec21 Mar30 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 123 2.00 31% 2.30    
8  HAND IT OVER Jun19 Apr29 Mar20 Feb28 Dec28 (walsh d)MACHADO LUAN 123 20.00    
 
ELP-6   07/21/2025 5940ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($102K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PURRING Jul03 May29 Mar09 Sep11 Aug21 (deville j)JUAREZ NIK 123 30.00    
2  FAITH UNDERSTOOD Jul04 May29 Apr23 Jan25 Nov29 (hancock dana)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 6.00 9% 9.80    
SCR  CALL ME TONI Oct26 Jul27 Jun21 May23 Apr24 (hughes g)GRAHAM J 123 15.00    
4  CLASSY'N CONNECTED Jun27 May30 Nov22 Sep26 Aug05 (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 123 4.50    
5  POPPY THE PRINCESS Jun13 May17 Apr12 Feb26 Jan26 (newton troy)MONCADA IRVING 113 10.00 10% 9.10    
6  FLEETINGLY Jun07 May01 Dec21     (brown c)TORRES A 123 1.80 56% 0.80    
SCR  QUIETLY Jun12 May17 Apr18 Aug05 Jul07 (mott riley)CONCEPCION AXEL 123 2.50    
8  HEART SPIN Jun12 May11 Apr06 Mar06 Jan23 (navarrete)LEPAROUX R 123 8.00    
 
ELP-7   07/21/2025 5280ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($104K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FORT SAM Jun26 Apr29 Mar19 Jul28 Jun09 (fawkes david)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 4.00 7% 13.80    
2  DAI VERNON Jun14 May18 Mar28 Jan27 Dec13 (kenneally eddi)MACHADO LUAN 122 6.00    
3  SECRET CHAT Jun07 May17 Apr19 Mar01 Jan11 (maker mich)HERNANDEZ J 122 3.00 47% 1.10    
4  PRINCE OF POWER Jul03 Apr19 Apr08 Feb15 Jan25 (esqu)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
5  SINGLE DOT YAHT Jun14 May17 Dec01 Nov09 Sep15 (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 122 12.00    
6  PASSING GAME Jun14 Apr19 Mar15 Jan25 Dec21 (rice linda)TORRES A 122 5.00    
7  IMPERIAL GUN Jun15 May03 Apr19 Feb01 May18 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 4.50 24% 3.20    
8  CAN'T HUSH THIS Jun26 May18 Sep29 Aug24 Jul22 (foley greg)CANNON DECLAN 122 6.00    
 
ELP-8   07/21/2025 3960ft DIRT RC11 SLOPPY Twin Bridges Purse ($150K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MISCHIEVOUS GAL Jun28 May26 May01 Apr19 Jan25 (williams matt)VAZQUEZ A 126 6.00 14% 6.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of ENOUGH by ARCH)
SCR  SULTRY LASS Jul06 Jun13 May18 Feb07 Dec27 (jacobson dav)TORRES A 122 12.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of COMPOSING by TOUCH GOLD)
SCR  CLIQUE Jul05 May31 Apr22 Nov24 Sep24 (irion heath)ARRIETA REYNIER 122 30.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of LITTLE ALEXIS by MR. GREELEY)
4  FIBBER Feb01 Dec21 Nov25 Oct19 Sep21 (hartman chri)RAMOS D 122 1.80 53% 0.90    
  (by FROSTED out of DEVIOUS INTENT by DIXIE UNION)
5  DASHINGLY May26 May01 Apr12 Mar21 Feb13 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 15.00 8% 12.30    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of TIGER SILK by ALL AMERICAN)
6  MINK'S PALACE Jun21 May26 Apr26 Dec22 Oct19 (kenneally eddi)MACHADO LUAN 124 4.50    
  (by PALACE MALICE out of SCATTERING MINK by SCAT DADDY)
7  ASTERNIA Jun27 May23 May02 Feb24 Jan31 (morse rand)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 10.00    
  (by ASTERN out of LA CHEPIS by SUPER SAVER)
8  TAPIT QUICK Jun15 May03 Mar01 Jan27 Jan04 (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 122 8.00 ★    
  (by TAPITURE out of INSPEIGHTOF by ORB)
9  POPPERINA Jun15 May01 Apr19 Mar29 Jan18 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 122 15.00    
  (by CALIFORNIA CHROME out of BLOOMING by GRAYDAR)
SCR  LEGADEMA Sep21 Jun09 May11 Apr05 Feb02 (bauer phili)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 5.00    
  (by ARROGATE out of SCARLET LOVE by NOT FOR LOVE)
 
ELP-9   07/21/2025 5940ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SARDIS Jun28 Apr25 Mar23 Jan24 Jan01 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 5.00 33% 2.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of ENDLESS CHAT by BERNARDINI)
2  LEBOMBO Jun15 May08 Mar28 Mar07 Feb01 (medina robert)BEJARANO R 124 12.00 8% 12.30    
  (by CUPID out of DARING GREATLY by EVEN THE SCORE)
3  BRAVITAS Jun23 Jun07       (mckeever andrew)GRAHAM J 118 15.00 10% 9.40    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of BRAGGING by EXCHANGE RATE)
4  SEND COINS Jul04 May29 May03 Mar19   (mcvickers lama)DOYLE SOPHIE 124 30.00    
  (by COLLECTED out of TEN COINS by INDIAN CHARLIE)
SCR  RULE SEVENTY SIX Jun28 May11       (walsh brendan)CANNON DECLAN 118 6.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of BENVENUTTA by TAPIT)
6  STREETCAR (IRE) Jun28         (walsh brendan )SHEEHY DANNY 118 10.00    
  (by IN THE WINGS (GB) out of PROCTOR'S LEDGE by GHOSTZAPPER)
7  ABBI FEDE Jun15 May17 Apr08 Aug05   (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00    
  (by ENTICED out of JENNYS PRAYER by TAPIT)
8  PACIFIC Jun21         (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 118 20.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of WORSHIPPER by AWESOME AGAIN)
SCR  VIVALDI Jun08 May02 Mar07 Oct28 Sep09 (brown c)GEROUX FLORENT 124 2.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of CHANNEL LADY by ENGLISH CHANNEL)
10  INWOOD DRIVE Jun06         (mott william)TORRES A 118 15.00    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of HAY FLO by CAIRO PRINCE)
11  WISH CAREFULLY Jun15 May14 May01 Mar19 Mar05 (lovell mic)HERNANDEZ J 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MITOLE out of FORGIVENESS by MEADOWLAKE)
12  CHAPMAN'S PEAK Oct25 Aug29       (cox h)MACHADO LUAN 118 6.00 25% 3.00    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of DICKINSON by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.