Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Turf Paradise
Thursday - February 15, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TUP-4   WIN (1/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/2)-(1/2) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (1/2)-(1/5/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (1/2)-(1/5/2)-(3/6/5) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
TUP-5   WIN (1/5/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/5/2)-(1/5/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/5/2)-(1/5/2)-(1/5/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/5/2)-(3/6/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/5/2)-(3/6/5)-(4/3/1) 27 $0.50 $13.50 
TUP-6   WIN (3/6/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/6/5)-(3/6/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/6/5)-(3/6/5)-(3/6/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/6/5)-(4/3/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/6/5)-(4/3/1)-(7/5/4) 27 $0.50 $13.50 
TUP-7   WIN (4/3/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/3/1)-(4/3/1/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (4/3/1)-(4/3/1/7)-(4/3/1/7) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (4/3/1)-(7/5/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/3/1)-(7/5/4)-(3/2/1) 27 $0.50 $13.50 
TUP-8   WIN (7/5/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/5/4)-(7/5/4/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (7/5/4)-(7/5/4/6)-(7/5/4/6) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (7/5/4)-(3/2/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (7/5/4)-(3/2/1)-(8/6/7/5) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
TUP-9   WIN (3/2/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/2/1)-(3/2/6/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (3/2/1)-(3/2/6/1)-(3/2/6/1) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (3/2/1)-(8/6/7/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/2/1)-(8/6/7/5)-(7/1/5/4) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
TUP-10   WIN (8/6/7/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/6/7/5)-(8/6/7/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/6/7/5)-(8/6/7/5)-(8/6/7/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/6/7/5)-(7/1/5/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
TUP-11   WIN (7/1/5/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/1/5/4)-(7/1/5/4/10) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (7/1/5/4)-(7/1/5/4/10)-(7/1/5/4/10) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TUP-4   02/15/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8.5K) Purse ($16.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CONRADO Jan29 Dec14 Sep26 Aug28 Aug15 (vitali j)LOPEZ KARLO 122 2.50 31% 2.30    
2  TOP OF MY GAME Jan29 Jan13 Dec08 Nov26 Mar25 (silva jr)ARBOLEDA ALDO 122 2.00 25% 3.00    
3  BRANNIGAN Feb03 Jan21 Jan12 Dec29 Dec10 (perez s)PENA BRYAN 122 5.00    
4  MOON TIME Jan18 Dec16 Dec01 Nov17 Oct27 (person kenneth )CRUZ M 122 3.00    
SCR  AIR JOCK Dec05 Nov14 Sep16 Sep08 Aug14 (mcfarlane)VALENZUELA A 122 4.50    
 
TUP-5   02/15/2024 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4.5K) Purse ($13.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SEE YOU AT THE TOP Feb05 Jan12 Dec05 Oct18 Oct01 (si)DA FAUSTO 122 4.00 59% 0.70    
2  PAISLEY'S VISION Dec05 Nov13 Sep17 Aug20 Jul15 (eikleberry kevi)CORBETT W 122 5.00 5% 19.00    
3  VALDINI Dec12 Nov13 Sep02 Aug14 Jun25 (villamar candela)RAMEY CASH 117 6.00    
4  ASSUREDLY Jan21 Jan06 Nov19 Sep30 Sep04 (diodoro roberti)LOPEZ KARLO 122 3.00    
5  BEA MISCHIEF Nov25 Nov05 Oct22 Aug26 Jun25 (silva jr)ARBOLEDA ALDO 122 2.50 10% 9.10    
6  GET MY POINT Jan06 Dec17 Nov26 Oct29 Oct15 (belvoir van)ESPINOZA ASSAEL 122 3.50    
 
TUP-6   02/15/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($15K) Purse ($20K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:17
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  RUBY RAY Jan31 Nov25 Mar12 Feb20 Jan29 (evans justin)CONTRERAS LUIS 124 3.00    
2  MINEDANDREFINED Feb05 Oct08 Aug17 Jul22 Jul01 (evans justin)NEGRON LUIS 124 2.50    
3  WILLOWMYGIRL Jan31 Oct14 Sep02 Aug06 Jul16 (woolley bennie )LOPEZ KARLO 124 3.50 33% 2.00    
4  M G BIG MARIA Jan29 Dec11 Nov13 Oct14 Jul02 (hone bart)VALENZUELA A 124 6.00    
5  LUNAR UNIT Jan31 Jan04 Oct01 Sep06 Aug02 (vitali )RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
6  LEMON DROP LADY Dec20 Oct08 Aug05 Jul09 Apr19 (hone bart)CORBETT W 124 4.00 23% 3.40    
 
TUP-7   02/15/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($15K) Purse ($20K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  THE RONALD Dec04 Oct28 Oct01 Jul22 Jun19 (barraza s)PENA BRYAN 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
2  CAPIAT Jan30 Dec09 Nov12 Oct21 Sep16 (matt l)RADKE K 124 15.00    
3  PANZER PRIDE Jan30 Dec04 Nov14 Sep16 Aug06 (eikleberry ke)ARBOLEDA ALDO 124 5.00 10% 9.20    
4  LEGALLY REDDY Dec04 Nov14 Oct29 Oct01 Aug18 (hone bart)CORBETT W 124 3.50 65% 0.60    
5  CARPE BELLUM Jan30 Dec17 Sep30 Sep02 Aug05 (martinez esteba)LOPEZ KARLO 124 6.00    
6  STAR PROSPECT Jan30 Dec09 Oct28 Sep24 Sep02 (ferguson )VALENZUELA A 124 8.00    
7  DISCRETIONARY DAY Jan14 Dec09 Nov24 Oct27 Oct09 (diodoro)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 124 3.00 ★    
8  PLEASEUSETHEPORTAL Feb06 Dec10 Nov19 Nov05 Sep15 (evans justin)NEGRON LUIS 118 4.00    
 
TUP-8   02/15/2024 5280ft DIRT RC11 FAST Walter Purse ($60K) 4UP ALL PT- 5:11
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  REDLINE Jan19 Jan01 Nov05 Oct15 Aug12 (dollase cra)ESPINOZA ASSAEL 120 3.00    
  (by TEXAS RED out of GUADALUPE HIGH by CUVEE)
2  TULANE TRYST Jan29 Nov28 Oct27 Oct01 Sep02 (hernandez m)MORALES ROBERTO 120 12.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of DESIRE STREET by CONGRATS)
3  MY MAN BIGGIE Nov08 Sep30 Sep11 Aug14 Jul29 (simpson shannon)CRUZ M 120 15.00    
  (by MR. BIG out of TWIN SPIRIT by YANKEE GENTLEMAN)
4  DIAMOND RIM Jan29 Dec20 Nov28 Nov07 Aug14 (mcfarlane l)LOPEZ KARLO 120 4.50 5% 19.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of NURSE DONNA by VINDICATION)
5  TRUTH SEEKER Jan29 Nov28 Oct21 Oct01 Sep02 (barraza s)MAWING A 124 4.00 18% 4.50    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of FOR ROYALTY by NOT FOR LOVE)
6  HOLDEN THE LUTE Dec20 Nov03 Sep07 Aug18 Jul22 (diodoro)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 122 5.00 ★    
  (by MIDNIGHT LUTE out of CASINO GOLD by PROUD CITIZEN)
7  TONY'S TAPIT Jan29 Dec20 Feb18 Feb04 Jan23 (silva jr)ARBOLEDA ALDO 120 3.50 52% 0.90    
  (by TONALIST out of AUTUMN WEDDING by RUNAWAY GROOM)
8  PRINCE LANCELOT (GB) Jan05 Nov26 Oct15 Aug31 May27 (evans justin)NEGRON LUIS 120 5.00    
  (by SIR PRANCEALOT out of RAINBOW VALE by MOSS VALE)
 
TUP-9   02/15/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4.5K) Purse ($13K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:38
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PARCO Sep15 Jul29 Jun25 May27 May07 (cappellucci dic)NEGRON LUIS 124 6.00 5% 19.00    
2  FEEL FREE Jan31 Dec04       (silva j)BRAVO MISAEL 119 2.00 31% 2.20    
3  WORK N FLIRT Feb07 Dec04 Nov26 Nov19 Oct31 (si)DA FAUSTO 124 3.50 46% 1.20    
4  KATALEYA Dec16         (hurtado cl)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 118 3.00    
5  UPTOWN RHAPSODY Apr25 Apr01 Mar12 Feb19 Feb02 (perkins fra)MORALES ALLYSSA 124 15.00    
6  JESSICA BLAH BLAH Jan29 Dec22 Dec01 Jul11 Jun20 (vitali j)LULL E 124 4.00 ★    
7  HELLO BABY Jan29 Nov13 Oct25 Feb02 Dec22 (ackerman)STEPHENSON NEVILLE 124 10.00    
 
TUP-10   02/15/2024 3960ft DIRT RC11 FAST Arizona Breeders Purse ($35K) 3 F PT- 6:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ARIZONA REINA         (simpson shann)VALDES ALEXIS 122 12.00    
  (by LOTSA MISCHIEF out of HONEY CANDY by DESPERATELY)
2  WYATT'S IN CHARGE         (mcfarlane l)PENA BRYAN 122 5.00    
  (by LOTSA MISCHIEF out of JERSEY BUNS by JERSEY TOWN)
3  LOTSA STEEL Dec19 Nov06       (alvarez s)VALENZUELA A 122 6.00    
  (by LOTSA MISCHIEF out of SPINNING STEEL by HARD SPUN)
SCR  TWISTED MISCHIEF         (alvarez sergio)LULL E 122 8.00    
  (by LOTSA MISCHIEF out of MINT TWIST by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
5  ARIZONA LINDY Nov28 Sep30 Jul30 Jul02   (hone bart)ENRIQUEZ D 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by LOTSA MISCHIEF out of AWESOME EFFORT by AWESOME AGAIN)
6  TIA SUZI         (alvarez se)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 122 4.00 11% 8.20    
  (by LOTSA MISCHIEF out of MY INDY KITTY by TALE OF THE CAT)
7  X RAY VISION Dec12 Nov28 Sep22 Aug28 Jul30 (eikleberry)MONTANEZ ROSARIO 122 3.00 10% 8.70    
  (by MAJESTIC HARBOR out of WINNING VISION by POLLARD'S VISION)
8  LOTSA GIRL         (kenney ryan)CORBETT W 122 3.50 39% 1.50    
  (by LOTSA MISCHIEF out of LET THE GIRL GO by ROCKY BAR)
 
TUP-11   02/15/2024 3960ft DIRT RC11 FAST Arizona Breeders Purse ($35K) 3 C/G PT- 6:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHUDDER Jan30 Dec12 Nov06 Sep30 Sep09 (barraza s)PENA BRYAN 122 4.00 26% 2.80    
  (by LOTSA MISCHIEF out of RYLEIGH RULER by ROMAN RULER)
2  BIYOMBO Dec12 Jul31       (eikleberry ke)AYUSO ARMANDO 122 8.00    
  (by LOTSA MISCHIEF out of MS MUMBA by ROCKPORT HARBOR)
3  DON JUAN BUBBA Sep11 Aug28 Jul17 Jun11 May06 (eikleberry ke)ARBOLEDA ALDO 122 12.00    
  (by BOCEPHUS out of COMPLIMENTARY by PORTO VARAS)
4  U CAN DO U Nov28 Aug26 Jul08 Jun24   (eikleberry kevi)CORBETT W 122 3.00 5% 19.00    
  (by LOTSA MISCHIEF out of SAINT'S CROWN by TIZNOW)
5  CRYPTO CONSPIRACY Nov13         (eikleberry)MONTANEZ ROSARIO 122 5.00 14% 5.90    
  (by LOTSA MISCHIEF out of TIZ WILD WIND by MINISTERS WILD CAT)
6  CAUTION CARDINAL Jan05 Nov20 Sep30 Sep09 Aug19 (story chad)MAWING A 122 15.00    
  (by STANFORD out of MS. CAUTION by MR. GREELEY)
7  SARAH'S BIG BANG Sep10 Aug27 Jul23 Jul09   (belvoir v)VALENZUELA A 122 4.50 37% 1.70    
  (by UH OH BANGO out of SARAH IN CHARGE by HIGH BRITE)
8  ARIZONA SUMMER         (alvarez se)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 122 10.00    
  (by STANFORD out of SUMMERS PEACE by ORIENTATE)
9  ARIZONA DAVIN Jan05         (hernandez mig)VALDES ALEXIS 122 20.00    
  (by STAY THIRSTY out of SWISSARELLA by SWISS YODELER)
10  MOON SHINE TIME         (kenney ryan)RADKE K 122 6.00 ★    
  (by MOONSHINE MULLIN out of POCKETFUL by TOP HIT)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.