Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Fort Erie
Tuesday - October 17, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
FE-1   WIN (3/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/5)-(3/1/5) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (3/5)-(3/1/5)-(3/1/5) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (3/5)-(5/1) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
FE-2   WIN (5/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/1)-(5/1) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (5/1)-(4/1/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
FE-3   WIN (4/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/5)-(4/1/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/1/5)-(4/1/5)-(4/1/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/1/5)-(7/5/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
FE-4   WIN (7/5/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/5/2)-(7/5/3/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (7/5/2)-(7/5/3/2)-(7/5/3/2) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (7/5/2)-(4/6/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
FE-5   WIN (4/6/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/6/5)-(4/6/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/6/5)-(4/6/5)-(4/6/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/6/5)-(6/3/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
FE-6   WIN (6/3/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/3/5)-(6/3/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/3/5)-(6/3/5)-(6/3/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/3/5)-(1/2/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
FE-7   WIN (1/2/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/2/6)-(1/2/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/2/6)-(1/2/6)-(1/2/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/2/6)-(7/5/8) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
FE-8   WIN (7/5/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/5/8)-(7/5/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/5/8)-(7/5/8)-(7/5/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/5/8)-(10/4/3/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
FE-9   WIN (10/4/3/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (10/4/3/5)-(10/4/3/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (10/4/3/5)-(10/4/3/5)-(10/4/3/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
FE-1   10/17/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 GOOD Maiden Claimer ($4K) Purse ($15K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RUMOURS FLY Oct03 Aug28 Aug13 Jul31 Jul04 (buttig)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 115 2.50 ★    
2  SMART IRENE Oct09 Sep28 Aug10 Jul20 Jul13 (samulak j)SEECHARAN A 122 3.50    
3  ASHWICKEN Oct03 Sep25 Sep04 Aug08 Jul24 (chudob)ALDERSON IAN 122 1.60 73% 0.40    
4  BETKA Sep26         (agostino roy)SANCHEZ ALEXIS 117 8.00    
5  BELLE FEMME Sep26 Jul31 Jun13 May30 Sep20 (williams a)ELLIS S 122 6.00 5% 19.00    
6  SOVEREIGN TALE Oct09         (bailey barbar)DAVID MICHAEL 120 10.00    
 
FE-2   10/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 GOOD Claiming ($4K) Purse ($13.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:28
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BREACH OF TRUST Sep25 Sep11 Aug22 Aug07 Jul24 (goldenberg m)SINGH S 124 2.50 20% 4.10    
2  MIGHTY PELE Oct02 Sep25 Sep11 Aug04 Jul07 (powell)ALDERSON IAN 124 3.00    
3  AWESOME BREAK Oct02 May02 Apr15 Apr03 Mar23 (cathcart stev)DAVID MICHAEL 122 8.00    
4  C BY THE SEA Oct10 Sep26 Sep11 Aug13 Jul10 (agostino roy)SANCHEZ ALEXIS 117 4.50    
5  DON'T STOP DREAMIN Oct09 Sep25 Sep12 Aug22 Jul24 (ceccat)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 120 1.40 54% 0.90    
 
FE-3   10/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 GOOD Claiming ($4K) Purse ($13.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JUNGLE GODDESS Oct02 Sep12 Sep05 Jul18 Jun27 (ceccato sharon)CRAWFORD J 122 2.50 13% 7.00    
SCR  STORMING LADY Sep19 Aug28 Aug17 Jul18 Jun18 (adamo anthony)VIVES SOFIA 117 1.60    
3  EASY ACCESS Oct09 Sep25 Sep05 Aug15 Jul31 (keen howard)JOHNSON KIRK 122 12.00    
4  SWEET FINALE Sep19 Aug07 Jul25 Jul04 Jun12 (purdy willia)CHEYNE A 122 4.50 46% 1.20    
5  PACENZA Oct02 Sep19 Sep05 Aug21 Jun12 (humber josep)SANCHEZ ALEXIS 117 20.00 11% 8.30    
6  BETTABE SWIFT Oct02 Sep19 Sep05 Jan11 Jan02 (robillard jul)PINTO MELANIE 122 15.00    
7  REIGN BY REIN Sep25 Sep12 Sep05 Jul31 Jul18 (ezra d)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 117 4.00    
 
FE-4   10/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 GOOD Claiming ($8K) Purse ($22.2K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PRIVATE LAKE Sep12 Jul03 Jun18 Feb18 Feb01 (davi)MOSQUEIRA ELUID 122 12.00    
2  WENJACK Oct03 Sep18 Sep12 Sep02 Aug22 (husbands anthon)VIVES SOFIA 117 20.00 5% 19.00    
3  THELONIOUS Oct10 Sep26 Sep18 Sep05 Aug21 (conces)ALDERSON IAN 122 6.00 ★    
4  MAYITO Oct02 Sep23 Sep12 Sep04 Aug21 (loescher paula)JOHNSON KIRK 122 12.00    
5  PAPERBACK HERO Oct03 Sep12 Sep04 Aug21 Jul31 (agostino)BUCHANAN Z 120 2.50 32% 2.10    
6  W W SPRINGTIME Oct09 Sep12 Aug28 Aug08 Jul20 (mcmaho)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 120 3.50    
7  TAKE A CHANCE Sep18 Sep04 Aug21 Aug04 Jul18 (mileni nick)PINTO MELANIE 124 2.00 45% 1.20    
8  MOBILIZER Sep25 Sep12 Sep04 Aug21 Aug11 (keen howard)CRAWFORD J 122 15.00    
 
FE-5   10/17/2023 3300ft DIRT RC6 GOOD Optional Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($24.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:52
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JARA Sep19 Aug08 Jul04 Jun06 Apr29 (davis m)VIVES SOFIA 117 3.50    
2  J M R GEMMA Sep25 Sep05 Aug22 Aug08 Jul25 (simms )VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 117 2.00    
3  SPARKLE SAMMY Oct02 Sep19 Aug28 Aug03 Jul20 (albu ken)JOHNSON KIRK 122 4.00    
4  CANT BEAT THE KATZ Oct02 Sep04 Jul18 Jun18 Jun06 (robillard jul)PINTO MELANIE 122 3.00 48% 1.10    
5  GREEN GABLES Oct02 Sep19 Sep04 Aug28 Aug15 (clemmer krista)RAMSAMMY E 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
6  BLAZING SKY Sep12 Aug22 Jul26 Jun14 Jun05 (gittens devon)CRAWFORD J 122 15.00 25% 3.00    
7  FOREST B Oct02 Sep19 Aug28 Aug22 Jul16 (powell)ALDERSON IAN 122 15.00    
 
FE-6   10/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($24.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SPIRIT BELLE Oct10 Sep26 Sep12 Aug28 Aug15 (meli s)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 115 12.00    
2  NICOLE'S SONG Sep26 Sep04 Aug15 Aug01 Jul18 (blake michael )JOHNSON KIRK 122 8.00    
3  ZAFEATHER Sep04 Aug15 Jul18 Oct27 Oct08 (davi)MOSQUEIRA ELUID 122 4.00 27% 2.70    
4  MAKES SENSE TO ME Sep26 Sep12 Aug29 Aug15 Jul25 (powell)ALDERSON IAN 124 2.50    
5  GETTING AHEAD Sep26 Sep04 Aug22 Aug07 Jul03 (mitche)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 120 3.50 9% 9.70    
6  HEADING WEST Sep26 Aug29 Aug15 Jul25 Jul10 (neubauer mich)PINTO MELANIE 120 2.00 37% 1.70    
 
FE-7   10/17/2023 5610ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($21.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PERFECTION SAVER Oct02 Aug28 Aug08 Apr25 Jan19 (neubauer mich)PINTO MELANIE 119 2.50 29% 2.50    
  (by SUPER SAVER out of STORMY PERFECTION by TALE OF THE CAT)
2  BEYOND TALENTED Oct09 Sep11 Aug29 Jul18 Jul03 (robillard jo)CHEYNE A 120 3.00 28% 2.50    
  (by FIRST SAMURAI out of GABBYWITHA G by TRIPPI)
SCR  LE GRAND GARCON Oct09 Sep25 Sep02 Aug22 Aug07 (steer )ALDERSON IAN 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CONQUEST CURLINATE out of GENTLE JAZZ by MALIBU MOON)
4  MR. RUDY Aug25 Jul30 Jun10 May20 Apr29 (flint steve)STEIN JUSTIN 120 4.00    
  (by KLIMT out of RUBY ROAN by JIMMY CREED)
5  SING DIXIE Sep22 Sep03 Aug06 Jul21 Jul08 (armata v)BYNOE DESEAN 115 15.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of BIT OF DIXIE by DIXIELAND BAND)
6  EIN WAHRER SOLDAT Oct09 Sep25 Sep04 Aug29 Jul25 (robillard julie)CRAWFORD J 120 6.00 23% 3.40    
  (by SOLDAT out of JO JO JENNA by PURGE)
7  NGABE Oct09 Oct02 Sep25 Sep11 Aug22 (husbands ant)SANCHEZ ALEXIS 117 10.00    
  (by FRAC DADDY out of LOGITO by CITY ZIP)
8  SEATTLE DOWN UNDER Sep29 Sep15 Aug26 Aug04 Jul09 (smith j)JORDAN COREY 120 8.00    
  (by SEATTLE SERENADE out of KOWLOON by PLEASANT COLONY)
 
FE-8   10/17/2023 4620ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($24.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ORIGINAL ME Oct03 Sep12 Jul11 Jun26 Jun13 (keen howard)CRAWFORD J 122 6.00    
2  TURF AND SURF Sep26 Sep07 Aug10 Jul20 Jun23 (agostino)BUCHANAN Z 122 4.50    
SCR  SILENT WARNING Oct07 Sep26 Sep05 Aug29 Aug15 (lister steven)HOYTE JASON 120 5.00    
SCR  MIZZ GEMMA Oct03 Sep26 Sep11 Aug28 Aug08 (agostino roy)CHEYNE A 122 3.00    
5  SUPER COOL STORM Sep12 Aug15 Jul24 Jul04 May03 (neubauer mich)PINTO MELANIE 122 2.50 33% 2.10    
6  HEAR ME KNOCKING Oct03 Sep26 Sep12 Aug22 Jul11 (capi m)VIVES SOFIA 115 4.00    
7  ISA BREEZE Sep26 Sep12 Aug29 Aug15 Jul16 (simms )VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 115 3.50 38% 1.60    
8  STRIKE THE POSE Oct06 Sep15 Sep03 Aug06 Jul20 (mileni nick)PINTO MELANIE 120 6.00 5% 18.50    
 
FE-9   10/17/2023 10770ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($24.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  A I INITIATIVE Oct03 Sep19 Sep05 Aug29 Aug15 (ceccato sharon)SALLES LEO 120 5.00    
SCR  KITTEN'S BOY Sep29 Aug25 Aug05 Jul14 Jun23 (mcpherson al)CONTRERAS LUIS 120 12.00    
3  HIT THE POINT Sep08 Aug03 Jun17 May14 Nov26 (armata v)BYNOE DESEAN 115 20.00 5% 19.00    
4  TRISH THE DISH Oct03 Sep12 Aug22 Jul25 Jul14 (capi m)SINGH S 119 4.00 27% 2.70    
5  DIAMONDBACK Oct09 Sep19 Sep12 Aug21 Aug07 (wieczo)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 115 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  IRIE ISLAND MAN Oct09 Sep25 Sep05 Aug28 Aug08 (chud)MOSQUEIRA ELUID 120 8.00    
7  UNILATERAL Sep26 Sep11 Aug21 Aug07 Jul24 (maynard desm)NICHOLLS KEVEH 120 10.00    
8  SANTIAGO SALSA Oct10 Oct03 Sep11 Aug28 Aug08 (keen how)BUCHANAN Z 120 12.00    
9  GLITTER BAY Sep12 Aug29 Jul25 Jul08 Jun26 (wright michael )VIVES SOFIA 114 6.00    
10  REDOUTE'S LIGHT Oct03 Sep19 Aug25 Aug11 Jul10 (robill)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 122 3.00 30% 2.40    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.