Handicappers' Race Results

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Fort Erie
Monday - September 18, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

FE-1   Win (6/4/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 1 $11.80 $11.80 5.80
FE-2   Win (5/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 1 1 1 $2.50 $2.50  
FE-3   Win (1/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 1 1 1 $2.40 $2.40  
FE-4   Win (7/5/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 1 1 0 $11.20  
FE-5   Win (4/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 6 1 0 $9.50  
FE-6   Win (3/6/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 5 1 1 $9.30 $9.30 3.30
FE-7   Win (5/3/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 6 1 1 $10.90 $10.90 4.90

Simulator Race results

 
FE-1   09/18/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4K) Purse ($13.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:00
See original race card.
:23 :462 1:12     1:182   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BIG BROWN BREWSKII 2 5 3 3   31 1nk (blake j)PINTO MELANIE 124 4.00 8% 11.10 4.90 W
BEND IN THE RIVER 6 1 57 5   2nk 2nk (robillard julie)JADOO STEVE 122 3.50 50% 1.00 5.40 P
STRONG ATTITUDE 1 4 1 12   1nk 3¾ (smith ke)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 122 12.00 20.35  
SUPREMEACTION 4 2 6 613   64 4 (rombis e)JOHNSON KIRK 122 2.50 17% 4.80 1.80  
FIFTH SEASON 5 3 45 4   53 5 (marrocco ja)SEECHARAN A 122 8.00 23.45  
TWO YEAR CONTRACT 3 6 2 22   4 6 (capi m)SINGH S 122 1.80 1.25  
 
FE-2   09/18/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($19.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:28
See original race card.
:221 :443 :564     1:094   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TAKE A CHANCE 1 1 1 1   1 1 (mileni nick)PINTO MELANIE 124 2.00 18% 4.60 0.25 W
MONEY MATTERS 5 3 2 2   2 2 (bird alan)MAILHOT P 122 2.50 57% 0.80 3.35 P
BRADY O'BRADY 3 5 48 410   34 3 (robillard josh)SALLES LEO 122 5.00 17.05  
BIG TIME LOUIE 4 4 59 511½   5 413¾ (agostino g)CHEYNE A 124 3.00 9.25  
JAMAICAN JIMMY 2 2 3 36   44 515 (humber jose)SEECHARAN A 124 4.50 19.85  
 
FE-3   09/18/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($22.2K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:56
See original race card.
:222 :452 :573     1:10   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
RAGING BEAR 1 3 1 14   1 1 (mileni nick)PINTO MELANIE 120 1.60 66% 0.50 0.20 W
GIVE ME MY MONEY 3 2 2 24   2 2 (wills daniel)SANCHEZ ALEXIS 115 4.00 5% 19.00 6.35 P
ARTIE'S ALL IN 5 5 5 56   3 312 (crete pi)ALDERSON IAN 122 3.50 12.95  
WAR DOCTOR 4 1 4 34   47 417 (chud)BOULANGER CHANCE 120 8.00 36.35  
GRAND GIZMO 2 4 3 45   59 519¼ (davis ri)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 122 2.50 5.55  
SCR  AUTUMN'S SO FLASHY               (carter angel)SLEVINSKY RACHEL 117 8.00    
 
FE-4   09/18/2023 3300ft DIRT RC10 MUDDY Allowance Purse ($24.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:24
See original race card.
:222 :461       :59   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
RELOAD BULLET 1 1 1½ 1nk   1½ 1¾ (agostino geo)JOHNSON KIRK 124 8.00 4.60  
I LIVE BY FAITH 2 6 6 6   3½ 2¾ (powell dal)BUCHANAN Z 122 3.50 6.75  
M C JACKHAMMER 4 7 7 7   72 32 (humber joseph)SANCHEZ ALEXIS 117 10.00 13% 6.90 14.30 S
MENDELJOHN (IRE) 7 5 5 5   5 4 (desruisseaux d)NICHOLLS KEVEH 120 2.50 34% 1.90 1.20  
VOYANT 6 4 4¾ 3.2   2½ 5 (alderson)ALDERSON IAN 122 4.00 4.80  
HARDWARE GAP 5 3 3½ 2nk   4¾ 6 (agos)BOULANGER CHANCE 122 3.00 29% 2.50 4.65  
LOADED SECRET 3 2 2½ 4¾   6 7 (chudobia)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 119 10.00 25.80  
 
FE-5   09/18/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($5K) Purse ($15.75K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:52
See original race card.
:222 :454       :583   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ONE LAST FLING 6 2 1½ 1nk   1nk 12 (mileni nick)VIVES SOFIA 115 15.00 3.75  
DEVIL IN HER HEART 7 4 2½ 2nk   2nk 22 (agostino g)SANCHEZ ALEXIS 119 4.00 7.85  
HONEY GIRL 2 5 31 4   32 32 (maynard )HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 122 2.00 27% 2.80 1.75 S
TICKLE HER TOE 1 7 77 7   54 4 (capi m)SINGH S 122 6.00 2.70  
PENNIESFROMABOVE 5 3 63 5   6 510¼ (steer tom)BUCHANAN Z 122 12.00 19.70  
PASSION TO PLEASE 3 6 4 33   4 612¾ (maynard )ALDERSON IAN 120 5.00 10% 9.10 7.80  
BLACK TAFFY 4 1 5 6   7 718¼ (wieczorek kendra)JOHNSON KIRK 122 3.00 30% 2.30 10.40  
 
FE-6   09/18/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($5K) Purse ($15.75K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:20
See original race card.
:222 :45 1:11     1:18   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BEN LOMOND 5 3 4 3   2 1½ (robillard julie)PINTO MELANIE 122 6.00 18% 4.50 3.65 W
ACE DESTROYER 2 1 11 1   1 2½ (robillard josh)JOHNSON KIRK 124 8.00 1.30  
LOQUACIOUS 7 6 714 713½   6 3½ (cohen michael)CRAWFORD J 124 4.00 9.65  
BOCELLI (IRE) 4 7 613 611½   54 41 (keen)BOULANGER CHANCE 122 10.00 26.95  
HIATUS 3 2 21 2   33 5 (voyce jeff)SALLES LEO 122 2.00 21% 3.70 4.40  
LETTING LOOSE 6 5 5 4   44 6 (agostino g)SANCHEZ ALEXIS 122 8.00 20% 3.90 4.55  
THELONIOUS 1 4 3 58   75 7 (concessi)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 122 3.00 13.75  
 
FE-7   09/18/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($19.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:48
See original race card.
:232 :461 1:12     1:184   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WENJACK 3 2 53 45   2½ 11 (husbands)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 120 8.00 5% 19.00 4.45 W
STORMY SOUL 2 3 1½ 11   1½ 21 (robillard )BUCHANAN Z 120 10.00 20% 3.90 2.40 P
SOCIETY JOE 1 5 42 56   5 32 (holder tedston)KERR CHEYENNE 110 5.00 3.85  
DE ONLY SOLUTION 5 1 3½ 31   41 4 (raghunath raven)PINTO MELANIE 120 10.00 3.55  
BEYOND BORDERS 4 4 2½ 21   3½ 54 (agostino g)SANCHEZ ALEXIS 117 6.00 2.25  
SCR  CRYPTIC CREED               (albu ken)JOHNSON KIRK 120 10.00    
SCR  DOCTOR UPTOWN               (robillar)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 115 8.00    
SCR  DOT'S VISION               (adamo anthon)SLEVINSKY RACHEL 117 4.00 49% 1.00    
SCR  UNION COLONEL               (warner k)MAILHOT P 124 3.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

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