The Thoroughbred Racing
Simulator
Handicappers' Race Results
 

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Fort Erie
Tuesday - August 15, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

FE-1   Win (3/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 5 1 1 $2.70 $2.70 -1.30
    Exacta (3/5)-(3/5) 2 $1.00 $2.00 5-4 2 0 $2.80 -2.00
    Trifecta NO BET 0 $0.20 $0.00 5-4-2 3 0 $1.83 0.00
FE-2   Win (3/4/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 5 1 1 $4.10 $4.10 -1.90
    Exacta (3/4/5)-(3/4/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 5-4 2 1 $3.55 $3.55 -2.45
    Trifecta (3/4/5)-(3/4/5)-(3/4/5) 6 $0.20 $1.20 5-4-2 3 0 $2.36 -1.20
    Daily Double (3/5)-(3/4/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 5-5 2 1 $2.30 $2.30 -3.70
FE-3   Win (2/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 2 1 1 $38.80 $38.80 34.80
    Exacta (2/5)-(2/5/8) 4 $1.00 $4.00 2-8 2 1 $41.65 $41.65 37.65
    Trifecta (2/5)-(2/5/8)-(2/5/8) 4 $0.20 $0.80 2-8-5 3 1 $40.21 $40.21 39.41
    Daily Double (3/4/5)-(2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 5-2 2 1 $50.20 $50.20 44.20
FE-4   Win (1/3/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 3 1 1 $3.30 $3.30 -2.70
    Exacta (1/3/4)-(1/3/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 3-5 2 0 $9.50 -6.00
    Trifecta (1/3/4)-(1/3/4)-(1/3/4) 6 $0.20 $1.20 3-5-4 3 0 $3.22 -1.20
    Daily Double (2/5)-(1/3/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 2-3 2 1 $51.05 $51.05 45.05
FE-5   Win (1/3/6/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 7 1 1 $14.20 $14.20 6.20
    Exacta (1/3/6/7)-(1/3/6/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 7-3 2 1 $19.85 $19.85 7.85
    Trifecta (1/3/6/7)-(1/3/6/7)-(1/3/6/7) 24 $0.20 $4.80 7-3-2 3 0 $62.44 -4.80
    Daily Double (1/3/4)-(1/3/6/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 3-7 2 1 $14.05 $14.05 2.05
FE-6   Win (3/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 6 1 1 $4.40 $4.40 0.40
    Exacta (3/6)-(3/6) 2 $1.00 $2.00 6-3 2 1 $3.65 $3.65 1.65
    Trifecta NO BET 0 $0.20 $0.00 6-3-7 3 0 $1.55 0.00
    Daily Double (1/3/6/7)-(3/6) 8 $1.00 $8.00 7-6 2 1 $19.05 $19.05 11.05
FE-7   Win (2/3/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 5 1 1 $22.40 $22.40 16.40
    Exacta (2/3/5)-(2/3/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 5-1 2 0 $68.05 -6.00
    Trifecta (2/3/5)-(2/3/5)-(2/3/5) 6 $0.20 $1.20 5-1-3 3 0 $34.47 -1.20
    Daily Double (3/6)-(2/3/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 6-5 2 1 $24.05 $24.05 18.05
FE-8   Win (2/3/10/11) 4 $2.00 $8.00 12 1 0 $10.00 -8.00
    Exacta (2/3/10/11)-(2/3/7/10/11) 16 $1.00 $16.00 12-10 2 0 $15.95 -16.00
    Trifecta (2/3/10/11)-(2/3/7/10/11)-(2/3/7/10/11) 48 $0.20 $9.60 12-10-5 3 0 $15.41 -9.60
    Daily Double (2/3/5)-(2/3/10/11) 12 $1.00 $12.00 5-12 2 0 $62.10 -12.00

Simulator Race results

 
FE-1   08/15/2023 3960ft DIRT MUDDY Maiden Claimer ($4K) Purse ($15K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:30
:223 :462 :591     1:13   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TAYBO 4 2 21 2   21 1(davis m)MAILHOT P 120 2.50 40% 1.50 0.35 W
MY SONG BABY 3 1 11 1   11 2(robillard julie)JADOO STEVE 120 3.00 3.05  
CATRIN 1 4 3 34   3310¼ (humber jose)SEECHARAN A 120 10.00 11.15  
AMEN TO THAT 2 3 46 46   46 414 (humber)MOSQUEIRA ELUID 120 6.00 31% 2.20 5.60  
SCR  TORY'S HOLIDAY               (dixon patrick)SALLES LEO 120 1.20    
 
FE-2   08/15/2023 5610ft DIRT MUDDY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($21.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:58
:234 :481 1:134 1:403   1:474   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SUPER COOL STORM 5 3 43 2 1nk 1nk 1(neubauer michae)PINTO MELANIE 122 1.60 26% 2.90 1.05 W
JIMMY IS A BREEZE 4 5 55 33 2nk 2nk 2(simms )MOSQUEIRA ELUID 122 2.50 47% 1.10 1.40 P
SPIRIT BELLE 2 1 1 1 31 37 312¾ (meli sal)ALDERSON IAN 120 3.00 10.25  
HONEYS DIAMOND 1 2 2 43 49 413 429½ (wills daniel)MAILHOT P 122 3.50 4.60  
FANG MEIN LIED 3 4 33 5 529 5100 5100 (robillard juli)CHEYNE A 120 12.00 5% 19.00 23.35  
 
FE-3   08/15/2023 3300ft DIRT MUDDY Claiming ($5K) Purse ($15.75K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:26
:221 :461       :594   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MS. P'S BELLA 1 2 43 55   31¼ (robillard julie)JOHNSON KIRK 122 5.00 5% 19.00 18.40 W
LETS RUN TWO 6 5 22 32   52¼ (voyce )MOSQUEIRA ELUID 122 2.00 0.95 P
PAPI'S BABY GIRL 3 4 32 21   2½ 3¼ (johnston t)ELLIS S 124 3.00 61% 0.60 4.00 S
PENNIESFROMABOVE 5 3 5 45   44½ (steer tom)DAVID MICHAEL 124 4.50 10.65  
EASY ACCESS 2 1 12 11   1½ 5½ (keen)BOULANGER CHANCE 122 12.00 19.55  
FUN COOL 4 6 67 6   666 (agostino george)MAILHOT P 124 4.00 2.15  
SCR  NEW YORK MINT               (bennett mi)BUCHANAN Z 122 6.00    
SCR  REIGN BY REIN               (ezra dar)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 117 3.50    
 
FE-4   08/15/2023 3960ft DIRT MUDDY Claiming ($8K) Purse ($22.2K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:54
:22 :45 :573     1:111   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
STRIKING MOON 3 5 4 2nk   111 (mileni nick)KING MARIE 122 2.00 52% 0.90 0.65 W
BEYOND MY DREAMS 5 1 5 5   421 (robillard julie)PINTO MELANIE 120 8.00 12.85  
MONEY MATTERS 4 4 3.2 1nk   23(bird alan)MAILHOT P 122 4.00 14% 6.40 2.00 S
VENOMOUS STATE 1 3 1nk 3.2   34(mileni n)ALDERSON IAN 122 3.00 11% 8.40 5.60  
UNION COLONEL 2 2 2nk 4   5516¼ (warner r)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 119 8.00 15.55  
SCR  PRIVATE LAKE               (davis )MOSQUEIRA ELUID 122 3.50    
 
FE-5   08/15/2023 3960ft DIRT MUDDY Claiming ($5K) Purse ($15.75K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:22
:223 :461 :591     1:122   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ROAD MAP 7 1 33 34   3.2 1¼ (robillar)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 122 6.00 9% 10.70 6.10 W
HONEY GIRL 3 7 55 44   2nk 2¼ (maynard )VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 117 8.00 17% 5.00 2.10 P
MS SUEDOO 2 6 7 6   533 (robillard josh)HEARN T 120 10.00 38.55  
ONE LAST FLING 6 3 2nk 13   1nk 45 (mileni nick)VIVES SOFIA 115 8.00 19% 4.20 3.50  
MY GIRL HOOTER 5 5 68 5   65(chubb beverley)JADOO STEVE 122 4.00 11.30  
NATASHA'S BIZNIZ 1 4 44 7   7610¼ (ceccato sharon)SANCHEZ ALEXIS 114 2.00 22% 3.50 3.25  
TOOSWEETFORME 4 2 1nk 23   4712¾ (cathcart steven)DAVID MICHAEL 122 3.00 4.35  
 
FE-6   08/15/2023 5610ft DIRT MUDDY Claiming ($4K) Purse ($13.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:50
:242 :481 1:14 1:41   1:48   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
A I INITIATIVE 3 2 35 4 46 2nk 1(ceccato )HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 122 3.00 16% 5.10 1.20 W
BEN LOMOND 2 4 2 2 12 1nk 2(robi)BOULANGER CHANCE 122 5.00 61% 0.60 1.15 P
QUIET REBEL 4 3 4 36 33 33(agostino geo)JOHNSON KIRK 122 8.00 5.55  
PUGIN 1 1 1 1 22 4419¼ (robillard josh)HEARN T 122 15.00 6.10  
SCR  VETTORI KIN (BRZ)               (adamo anthony)DAVID MICHAEL 122 2.50    
SCR  SAVVY'S SISTER               (loescher paula)CRAWFORD J 117 12.00    
SCR  ITS A BIRDIE               (mcdonald)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 112 20.00    
SCR  WILLIAM BOY               (cathcart)ALDERSON IAN 122 6.00    
SCR  AM PREPARED               (cathcart steven)MAILHOT P 122 8.00    
 
FE-7   08/15/2023 4290ft DIRT MUDDY Allowance Purse ($24.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:18
:224 :454 1:121     1:191   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SNEAKY REBEL 5 1 2 24   2½ 11 (powell a)VIVES SOFIA 119 4.00 5% 19.00 10.20 W
NICOLE'S SONG 1 5 5 47   42 21 (blake j)JOHNSON KIRK 122 5.00 11.65  
GREEN GABLES 3 3 1 14   1½ 32 (simms c)RAMSAMMY E 122 3.50 14% 6.00 3.45 S
MY GIRL GABBY 4 2 4 59   53 4(warner r)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 115 2.50 2.15  
ZAFEATHER 2 4 35 3   32 5(davis )MOSQUEIRA ELUID 122 1.80 64% 0.60 1.00  
 
FE-8   08/15/2023 4620ft DIRT MUDDY Allowance Purse ($24.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:46
:223 :46 1:113     1:181   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
12  SHEBATOWN 9 3 68 46   1½ 1(pion sylvain)HOYTE JASON 122 3.00 4.00  
10  HEADING WEST 7 1 36 34   2½ 2(neubauer michae)PINTO MELANIE 120 2.50 30% 2.30 2.65 P
ZIPPITY DAY 3 8 57 58   53 3(robillar)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 122 3.50 8.35  
ISA BREEZE 2 7 22 21   31 4(simms c)MAILHOT P 120 3.00 22% 3.60 8.95  
MAKES SENSE TO ME 5 4 8 610½   64 5(powell a)VIVES SOFIA 117 4.50 5.55  
DONNARUMMA 6 6 911 913½   869 (buttigie)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 117 8.00 11.30  
11  HERMIONE GRANGER 8 2 12 11   41 712 (robillard julie)JOHNSON KIRK 122 6.00 15% 5.80 6.50  
MIMI'S HOLIDAY 1 9 79 811   76 817 (robillar)ALDERSON IAN 122 10.00 5% 19.00 7.00  
SILENT WARNING 4 5 46 710½   98 929½ (loescher paula)CRAWFORD J 120 10.00 29.20  
SCR  LOADED SECRET               (chudobia)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 122 6.00    
SCR  MISS SCHILLER               (humber)MOSQUEIRA ELUID 122 12.00    
SCR  SMARTY ILLUSION               (pion sylvain)HOYTE JASON 122 10.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry shall win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group of contenders are printed in bold. TBRSimulator estimates that there is a very high probability that one of these entries shall win the race.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. If there are less than five (5) entries in the first group, non-Win contenders are added to the second group in the order of their strengths to round up the total entries in the two groups to five. TBRSimulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected return-on-investment. Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted, in the order that they are listed, to replace scratched entries in the first group. Note that there could be five or more entries in the first group, in which case there would be no second group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.