Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Colonial Downs
Thursday - August 17, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

CNL-1   WIN (2/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/1/3)-(2/1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/1/3)-(2/1/3)-(2/1/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/1/3)-(5/2/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/1/3)-(5/2/6)-(3/10/9/5/11) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CNL-2   WIN (5/2/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/2/6)-(5/2/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/2/6)-(5/2/6)-(5/2/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/2/6)-(3/10/9/5/11) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (5/2/6)-(3/10/9/5/11)-(6/10/11/13) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CNL-3   WIN (3/10/9/5/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/10/9/5/11)-(3/10/9/5/11) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/10/9/5/11)-(3/10/9/5/11)-(3/10/9/5/11) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (3/10/9/5/11)-(6/10/11/13) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (3/10/9/5/11)-(6/10/11/13)-(5/1/3/7/8) 100 $1.00 $100 
CNL-4   WIN (6/10/11/13) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/10/11/13)-(6/10/11/13/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (6/10/11/13)-(6/10/11/13/2)-(6/10/11/13/2) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (6/10/11/13)-(5/1/3/7/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (6/10/11/13)-(5/1/3/7/8)-(5/3/8/4) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CNL-5   WIN (5/1/3/7/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/1/3/7/8)-(5/1/3/7/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/1/3/7/8)-(5/1/3/7/8)-(5/1/3/7/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (5/1/3/7/8)-(5/3/8/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (5/1/3/7/8)-(5/3/8/4)-(7/1/4) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CNL-6   WIN (5/3/8/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/3/8/4)-(5/3/8/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/3/8/4)-(5/3/8/4)-(5/3/8/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/3/8/4)-(7/1/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/3/8/4)-(7/1/4)-(3/11/5) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CNL-7   WIN (7/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/1/4)-(7/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/1/4)-(7/1/4)-(7/1/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/1/4)-(3/11/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (7/1/4)-(3/11/5)-(1/9/10/4) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CNL-8   WIN (3/11/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/11/5)-(3/11/5/9/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/11/5)-(3/11/5/9/10)-(3/11/5/9/10) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (3/11/5)-(1/9/10/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CNL-9   WIN (1/9/10/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/9/10/4)-(1/9/10/11/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (1/9/10/4)-(1/9/10/11/4)-(1/9/10/11/4) 48 $0.50 $24.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
CNL-1   08/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 2 ALL PT- 1:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ADIOS PLUMA         (cazares )GALLARDO A 119 5.00 16% 5.30    
  (by ADIOS CHARLIE out of TAR AND FEATHER by AWESOME OF COURSE)
SIR FLASH         (ochoa gerard)TOLEDO JEVIAN 119 3.00 45% 1.20    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of MEADOW BRIDE by RUNAWAY GROOM)
KATRIEL         (ochoa gerard)JIMENEZ MANNY 119 8.00 8% 10.80    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of COUNTRY DRIVE by SHIROCCO (GER))
SILVER FRONT         (huffman ke)ALONSO LUIS 119 20.00    
  (by COAL FRONT out of MICA STREET by STREET HERO)
GENUINE PERIL Jul20         (munoz carlos)CAMACHO SAMY 116 6.00    
  (by ENTICED out of SHOYOYA by MACHO UNO)
SCR  A G DIAMOND Jul27 Jun17 Jun03     (cascallares)CASIQUE URBARDO 119 1.80    
  (by MAJESTIC CITY out of QUEST FOR CANDY by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
SIR MASON Aug03         (munoz ca)VILLALOBOS ISMERIO 119 20.00    
  (by ST PATRICK'S DAY out of AZASECRET by DISCREET CAT)
SCR  ALBERT FINNIGAN         (allen fe)SANCHEZ J 119 6.00    
  (by GOLDEN LAD out of RENAISSANCE ROSIE by JUMP START)
 
CNL-2   08/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BONDIVA         (keefe timothy )ROSADO JOHAN 119 6.00    
  (by BLOFELD out of DIVA MEG by EXCHANGE RATE)
WRIGHT UP FRONT Jul08         (toner j)RUIZ JORGE 119 3.50 16% 5.20    
  (by LORD NELSON out of MS. BEDAZZLE by MR. GREELEY)
LUNA AMARILLA Jul27 Jul13 Jun30 Mar12 Feb24 (marrero nestor)MENDEZ KEVIN 124 20.00    
  (by CAPO BASTONE out of PLAYINTHECITY by CITY ZIP)
SCR  FIRELANE         (lusk r)FUENTES MARIO 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by DADDY LONG LEGS out of FLORESTA by FOREST CAMP)
THE GANG THAT SANG Oct07 Sep05       (stidham m)HERNANDEZ J 124 1.40 44% 1.30    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of ARTFULLY by RIGHT CON)
COOKIE BANK Jul30         (bedard alan)LAPRIDA JEREMY 119 12.00 8% 11.90    
  (by GOOD MAGIC out of SOARWITHTHEBIRDS by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
STORM CREED         (munoz carlos)TOLEDO JEVIAN 124 8.00    
  (by JIMMY CREED out of OFFSHORE LADY by BERNARDINI)
ANNIE'S KINGDOM Jul20 Jul01 Aug20     (huffman ke)ALONSO LUIS 124 6.00    
  (by ANIMAL KINGDOM out of MICA STREET by STREET HERO)
 
CNL-3   08/17/2023 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($60K) 2 F PT- 2:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MY SWEETHEART DANI Jul22 Jul07 Jun10 May13 May04 (crooks jeffrey)CASTANON L 119 10.00    
  (by ALLIANCE out of SEDATE by MUNNINGS)
TRANQUILA RUBY Aug04         (cascallares)CASIQUE URBARDO 119 30.00    
  (by MIDNIGHT STORM out of TRANQUIL MOON by MALIBU MOON)
INDEPENDENCEAVENUE         (delacour )CARRASCO R 119 2.00 35% 1.90    
  (by MR SPEAKER out of OFF THE ROAD by QUICK ROAD)
SCR  SHE'S SPLENDID         (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 119 15.00    
  (by RACE DAY out of STAR SERENADE by CATRAIL)
THE AMAZING MIZZEN         (asmussen )HERNANDEZ J 119 4.50 9% 10.20    
  (by MIZZEN MAST out of ZULIA by HENNY HUGHES)
TALKIN' SASSY Jul20 Jun23       (rodriguez ang)CARDOSO DAVID 119 30.00    
  (by BACKTALK out of COTTINA by HIGH COTTON)
FIFTH CIRCUIT Aug04 Apr28       (mccutchen jas)JIMENEZ MANNY 119 8.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of NAWLINS KITTY by KITTEN'S JOY)
OSO Aug02         (werneth robert)GOLIBRZUCH S 119 30.00    
  (by DESTIN out of RESERVATION BLUES by INDIAN CHARLIE)
CAP CLASSIQUE         (russell britt)TOLEDO JEVIAN 119 4.00 14% 6.30    
  (by VINO ROSSO out of SCA DOODLE by SCAT DADDY)
10  QUEEN AIKO Jul22         (cascallares n)FUENTES MARIO 119 6.00 16% 5.30    
  (by CAJUN BREEZE out of LOTTERY QUEEN by HEAR NO EVIL)
11  SMILING ELLIE Jul07         (casse ma)GALLARDO A 119 3.50 7% 13.80    
  (by MIDSHIPMAN out of EMERLAUDE by EL CORREDOR)
SCR  TINA BALLERINA         (bedard alan)LAPRIDA JEREMY 119 20.00    
  (by MASTERY out of ANNA PAVLOVA by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
 
CNL-4   08/17/2023 5280ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($25K) Purse ($40K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
APRIL FIRST Aug03 Jul13 Jun24 May18 Apr22 (payne beale)AVILES YAN 118 12.00    
AMOR SALVAJE Aug03 Jul01 May13 Apr23 Mar26 (ochoa ge)VILLALOBOS ISMERIO 118 20.00    
SCR  LUNAR UNIT Aug02 Jun13 May24 Apr19 Mar25 (vitali m)GALLARDO A 118 12.00    
REES Aug02 Nov12 Oct22 Oct06 Sep03 (howard c)ROSADO JOHAN 124 20.00    
BACK OFF ME Jul21 May26 May06 Mar31 Mar10 (russo anth)ALONSO LUIS 124 30.00    
FROSTY SECRET Jul21 Jul01 May05 Apr26 Apr08 (manning de)SANCHEZ J 124 2.50 45% 1.20    
SCR  GOOD ACCELEBRATE Aug02 May24 May05 Mar18 Feb20 (williams )HIRALDO CHRISTIAN 118 15.00    
REAL MIKEY Jul21 Jun30       (lusk r)CASTANON L 118 30.00    
QUEEN ROCKET May12 Mar30 Feb16 Jan22 Dec04 (aro micha)CARRASCO R 118 20.00    
10  LA VILLAGE LUMIERE Jul21 Jun27 May13 Apr20 Mar25 (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 3.50 23% 3.40    
11  VIENNA'S TWIRL Apr15         (cooney s)ASHTON GAVIN 118 8.00 8% 11.40    
12  SEEKINGBYTHESTORM Aug03 Jul07 May26 Apr15 Feb24 (mcgoey monica)RUIZ JORGE 118 5.00    
13  BESSIE BLUE Jul21 Jul08 Jun25 May07 Aug29 (davis g)RUIZ JORGE 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
14  MS EXCUSE Jul27 Jul13 Jun04 May05 Apr12 (cascallares)CASIQUE URBARDO 118 20.00    
 
CNL-5   08/17/2023 5610ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($16K) Purse ($34.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GLOSSAMER Jul07 Jun22 May25 Nov13 Oct22 (ashby lynn)SANCHEZ J 123 3.00 26% 2.80    
PLEASE MARRY ME Aug04 Dec29 Dec03 Nov13 Nov05 (sanchez-sal)LYAPUSTINA TAIS 123 12.00    
INSIDE THE BOX Aug04 Oct14 Sep06 Aug09 Jul12 (fout douglas)AVILES YAN 123 10.00 13% 6.80    
STELLARATOR Jul04 May21 Mar03 Feb08 Jan18 (zook w)LEON A 123 20.00    
KIT CAN RUN Jul15 Jun17 May19 Apr28 Mar22 (casse ma)GALLARDO A 123 3.50 28% 2.60    
AMORE MOON Aug02 Jul15 Apr26 Apr08 Mar15 (ochoa gerard)JIMENEZ MANNY 123 15.00    
RIBALDRY (IRE) Jul06 Jun08 May09 Feb22 Jan12 (van thom)TOLEDO JEVIAN 123 8.00 9% 10.00    
BEASTIE GIRL Aug02 May18 Apr26 Mar22 Mar08 (rountree cathy)BOYCE FOREST 123 15.00 5% 19.00    
SUWANNEE CHICK Aug04 Jul01 May03 Apr16 Mar15 (parra her)HERNANDEZ J 123 20.00    
SCR  EXCULPATE Aug12 Jul01 Jun02 Sep17 Sep02 (sweezey kent)CAMACHO SAMY 123 4.00    
11  REACHING STRIDE Aug04 Jul12 Jun24 Jun04 May19 (morzan e)RIQUELME J 123 30.00    
12  REYNA DE VERANO Aug04 Jun25 Sep05 Aug23 Jul26 (munoz ca)VILLALOBOS ISMERIO 123 30.00    
SCR  HOT CHOICE Aug04 Jul23 Jun17 May28 Nov13 (howard da)CARRASCO R 123 20.00    
 
CNL-6   08/17/2023 3630ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($80K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WALT WHITMAN (IRE) Jul22 Jun09 May18 Apr21   (nunez ma)GALLARDO A 118 6.00    
BUBBA GRUMP Jul21 Jun16 May11 Dec08 Nov12 (contrer)NUNEZ MAURICIO 122 30.00    
MAYA PRINCE Jul14 Jun24 May28 Apr29 Apr02 (trombetta mich)ROSADO JOHAN 122 3.50 18% 4.70    
LET'S GO ALAMO Jul21 May21 Apr23 Apr01 Jan22 (kendall elise)CAMACHO SAMY 122 8.00 12% 7.10    
MATTA Mar04 Dec24 Nov07 Oct20 Sep24 (trombetta )SANCHEZ J 122 2.00 32% 2.10    
SCR  CATCHTHISWINNER Aug31 Aug17 Jul30 Jul19 Apr15 (munoz carlos)JIMENEZ MANNY 122 15.00    
NOVGOROD THE GREAT Jul20 Jun09 May14 Apr29 Mar18 (gulick m)CASTANON L 122 20.00    
POINT LIAM Jul27 Jun10 May14 Apr21 Feb11 (pompay terri)RUIZ JORGE 120 2.50 13% 6.50    
BLESSED ARION Aug05 Sep29 Sep06 Jul27 Jul03 (rawlings amanda )AVILES YAN 122 30.00    
 
CNL-7   08/17/2023 5610ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($16K) Purse ($34.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BAIL OUT Jul14 Jun24 Jun03 Nov13 Aug15 (de hor)SANCHEZ J 123 2.00 26% 2.80    
SCR  LOOKINASSAH Aug04 Jul02 Jun03 May04 Mar22 (pompay terri)RUIZ JORGE 118 4.00    
IMAGOODFELLA Jul15 May06 Apr08 Jan20 Dec28 (russo anth)ALONSO LUIS 118 20.00    
NEUTRAL Aug05 Jul23 Jun18 Apr30 Mar18 (magee kieron)TOLEDO JEVIAN 120 8.00 6% 16.50    
SCR  AND THE OSCAR GOES Sep07 Aug15 Jul20 Jul01 Apr08 (lusk r)FUENTES MARIO 123 30.00    
SCR  STEELE MONEY Aug10 May18 Apr16 Mar03 Dec17 (sanchez-salomon )AVILES YAN 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
DEAR SANTA Jul20 Jun16 Aug01     (delacour )CARRASCO R 125 2.50 43% 1.30    
KITTEN'S CLOWN Jun27 Jun07 May16 Apr29 Apr09 (mcgoey m)VILLALOBOS ISMERIO 123 30.00    
CELTIC SEA Jul14 Jun24 Jun02 May15 Nov04 (cooney s)ASHTON GAVIN 123 30.00    
10  MAKE 'EM TAP Aug05 Jul20 Jun09 May20 Feb02 (cazares )GALLARDO A 120 6.00    
 
CNL-8   08/17/2023 3630ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($16K) Purse ($34.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TAK E LADY Jul22 Jul13 Jun10 May24 Dec30 (ashby lynn)AVILES YAN 122 10.00    
SCR  SPOOKY SPICE Jun01 Apr20 Feb22 Dec10 Oct29 (stidham mi)SANCHEZ J 122 6.00    
WALKS LIKE A LADY Jul13 Jun17 Mar22 Mar02 Feb08 (nagle sarah)TOLEDO JEVIAN 122 2.50 64% 0.60    
TRIPLET Jul11 Apr07 Aug28 Jul01 May12 (gilliam karen )CASTANON L 122 20.00    
WILL I PLAY Jul27         (godsey d)ASHTON GAVIN 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  KILLY START Jul14 Jun25 Dec01 Oct28 Sep16 (merryman michael)RUIZ JORGE 122 6.00    
BUNTY WINDERMERE Jul29 Jun03 Dec31 Dec09 Nov18 (ryan dere)HERNANDEZ J 122 10.00    
MICHEAUX Jul14 Jun17 May18 Apr01 Jan18 (clement rolan)JIMENEZ MANNY 122 30.00    
DAISY BEE Aug04 Jul05 May20 Mar15 Feb08 (sweezey kent)CAMACHO SAMY 122 8.00    
10  LOVIELEE Aug04 Jul13 Jun09 Apr16 Apr01 (munoz ca)VILLALOBOS ISMERIO 122 30.00    
11  SUPER RENEE Jul13 Jun17 May13 Apr08 Feb19 (magee kieron)ROCCO S 122 4.00 11% 7.80    
 
CNL-9   08/17/2023 5280ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($28K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SUMMER ANTHEM Jul14 Jun02 Mar25 Jan25 Dec09 (brion ker)CARRASCO R 123 2.50 55% 0.80    
FIGHTNOMOREFOREVER Jul13 Jul07 Jun17 May26 Apr30 (boniface kevin)BOYCE FOREST 120 8.00    
FROSTY WARRIOR Jul20 Jun30 Apr28 Apr08 Mar05 (wasiluk peter)JIMENEZ MANNY 123 30.00    
CESAR Aug03 Jul05 May30 Apr30 Apr01 (bowersock mari)CASTANON L 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
THANK YA PETE Aug02 Jul14 Jul01 May29 May11 (cooney su)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 116 20.00    
WILD IRISHMAN Jul20 Jul07 May24 Apr12 Mar24 (werneth rober)FUENTES MARIO 121 30.00    
FEUILLETON Aug03 Jun23 Jun07 Apr30   (chain pearl)ROCCO S 123 15.00    
ZALFIERRO Jun30 Aug29 Aug22     (lusk r)RIQUELME J 123 30.00    
PURSUING PACE Jul06 Jun03 Dec29 Nov24 Nov13 (magee kieron)TOLEDO JEVIAN 121 3.00 11% 8.00    
10  VILLAGE PREACHER Jul20 Jun30 May20 Apr29 Apr12 (lusk brian)ALONSO LUIS 121 30.00 10% 8.60    
11  GO GREEN Jul08 Jun17 May28 Apr30 Apr08 (o'connel)GALLARDO A 118 4.00    
12  TEMPTING MOMENT Jul14 Jun15 May05 Sep05 Aug24 (hester leanne)CAMACHO SAMY 123 20.00    
SCR  MENTALIST Aug05 Jul14 Jun09 Nov04 Oct12 (bentley fennek)ROCCO S 121 6.00    
SCR  IT'S ME AGAIN Aug03 Jun30 Jun16 May27 Apr22 (santillana fr)FUENTES MARIO 123 30.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.